In this two part series, I will look at various aspects of James Shield's 2011 performance and how if could effect his 2012 season. In the first part, historical comparisons to Shield's workload increase will be examined. In the second part, I will attempt to see if James Shield's success in 2011 was sustainable.

Last year, James Shields pitched 249.1 innings, faced 975 batters, threw 3576 pitches, and started 33 games. Back to 1925, that type of line wasn't so impressive. However, the game of baseball has evolved, and by today's standards, James Shields was a pitching machine last year -- a model of durability.

While Shields is praised for his endurance, there are some concerns that he could experience regression next year due to the heavy increase in his innings and pitch totals. Is there a need to be worried? A quick historical look tells us not to panic.

Continue reading this post »

Now that football season is over -- I actually watched my first football game of the season last night, man -- baseball season seems all that much closer.* Pitchers and catchers report in a mere 14 days, so we're only two weeks away from a momentary burst of baseball bliss...before remembering how tedious and boring spring training is and starting the countdown for the actual season to begin.

*I used to be one of those people that say, "Now that football's over, there's nothing else on the calendar until baseball season!" But that was before I got into hockey. The Bolts are playing some damn important games right now, as they're trying to resurrect their season and make a final push at the playoffs, so now is a great time to tune in and catch some action.

And I suppose there's basketball on too, if that floats your boat. There's always the USF Bulls, who....well, yeah.

There hasn't been much baseball news over the past couple days -- even GMs were distracted by the Super Bowl, apparently -- so we'll just hit up some quick links:

• Sam Fuld hosted a clinic this weekend for young, diabetic athletes. It wasn't a baseball camp, but it was open to any child with diabetes that played a sport. It sounds like a great, unique idea, so I hope Fuld felt it went well enough to do it again in the future.
• So the Angels might trade Peter Bourjos for John Lannan? I'd be okay with that; it'd mean the Rays would stand a chance of having their drives to centerfield against the Angels actually hit the ground.
• As Steven Goldman points out, pinch hitters are ever so slowly disappearing from the American League. So maybe we shouldn't be that concerned that the Rays project to have a weak offensive bench? Theoretically, the Rays won't be pinch hitting all that often anyway.
• Ground-rule doubles used to be ground-rule home runs? Chalk that up as something I didn't know. Now that would be an interesting rule to dredge back up from the archives.

After the conclusion of the 2010 season the Rays front office was faced with the unprecedented task of having to replace six pitchers who appeared in 55 games or more during the season as Rafael Soriano, Joaquin Benoit, Grant Balfour, Randy Choate, Dan Wheeler, Chad Qualls signed elsewhere for contracts totaling roughly 68 million dollars. In meeting this challenge the Rays front office had to assemble a whole new cast of men for Joe Maddon to cobble into a bullpen for 2011. The amount of new faces and personalities in spring training caused Joe Maddon to quip that he felt more like a social coordinator than a major league manager.

As spring training progressed at least four spots were secure: Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Peralta, Adam Russell, and Andy Sonnanstine. There was a healthy competition for the remaining three spots which were eventually won by Juan Cruz, Cesar Ramos, and Jake McGee.

The big question surrounding the Rays as they departed spring training was if Joe Maddon would name a closer or if he were prepared to go the closer by committee route. Neither Andrew Friedman nor Joe Maddon tiped their hand:

"It's much more about having enough high-leverage guys that can get big outs late in the game," executive vice president Andrew Friedman said, "whether that's the seventh inning or the eighth inning or the ninth inning." - Tampa Bay Times

"I'm not going to declare one," manager Joe Maddon said, "because I think if you are not absolutely certain, then you shouldn't do that because you're only setting yourself up for problems later on." - Tampa Bay Times

After the first 6 games and 8 innings of play, Joe Maddon and the Rays were still looking for an opportunity to a) take a lead in a game and b) get the final three outs for a victory. Thanks to two errors by the Chicago White Sox and a key 3-run home run by Dan Johnson the Rays streak of not having a lead in a game ended at 62 innings and Joe Maddon had an opportunity to go to his bullpen for the final three outs. He turned to Kyle Farnsworth who retired the side in order and recorded his first save since June 13, 2008.

Continue reading this post »

As Jason Collette pointed out yesterday, the Rays have seemingly lost all of their former first basemen to the American League Central. All three also happened to be 2011 Triple-A Durham first basemen.

The Durham Bulls played a couple of guys at first base in 2011 that have since moved on from the Rays organization. Dan Johnson signed a minor league deal with the Chicago White Sox. Russ Canzler was traded to the Cleveland Indians for cash considerations. Casey Kotchman turned his magical 2011 season into a guaranteed $3M with the Cleveland Indians.

This leaves the Rays with Leslie Anderson as their lone first baseman in Durham. Why is this a problem, you ask? Because the Rays have no depth in case Luke Scott or Carlos Pena succumb to injury. Anderson is good organizational depth but there is little-to-no evidence that he would be able to handle Major League pitching if he were next on the depth chart to replace Pena or Scott.

The Rays still have plenty of arms to deal but it likely will not be for a Major League ready first baseman. Besides, with Pena and Scott on the active roster there really is not a lot of room to carry another guy relegated to first base duties alone.

If a trade occurs it will likely be for a player who can handle a few positions or, like Mr. Maniac pointed out yesterday, for an upgrade at catcher.

It may not seem like a big deal but imagine if the Rays did not have Casey Kotchman in Durham last year when Dan Johnson failed at the Big League level. Would the Rays have made the playoffs? What if it were Leslie Anderson who got the call? The Rays need to add a first baseman to Durham and who better than Russell Branyan?

Continue reading this post »