Report: Tampa Bay Rays to Deal Jesse Chavez for Rafael Soriano
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 10, 2009 1:01 AM EST
143 comments
After a full day of speculation, we finally reach resolution. Jon Paul Morosi is reporting the Rays will trade Jesse Chavez for Rafael Soriano. In effect, the Rays will deal the ghost of Akinori Iwamura for Rafael Soriano, barring anything else being added to the deal.
As for Chavez, well, we barely knew ‘ya Jesse. Take care in Atlanta. He's a decent get for Atlanta considering they held little leverage in this situation. Almost the opposite of the original deal that landed Chavez with the Rays.
Now, for Soriano.
Let's start from the top.
Soriano will turn 30-years-old on December 19th. He signed with the Seattle Mariners as an amateur free agent in 1996 and made his Major League debut on May 10th, 2002. On December 7th, 2006, he was traded to the Atlanta Braves for Horacio Ramirez. For his career, he's pitched 332.2 innings, struck out 365, and walked 104. All told, he has a career FIP of 3.31 and xFIP of 3.65. Soriano was eligible for free agency this season, however he decided to accept arbitration rather than testing the market, and gave the Braves permission to trade him immediately afterwards.
He throws your garden variety power closer pitches. A 92-94 MPH fastball that reaches 96, a slider that sits in the low-80s, and -- in the rarest of instances - a low-80s change-up. His fastball produced a 12.1% whiff rate last season while his slider sat at 16.4%. For comparison, J.P. Howell's curve generated 19.5% empty swings, which is to say Soriano's stuff is filthy. Soriano is a career fly ball pitcher, which isn't desirable, but when you pack the heat he does, pitching up in the zone without getting slammed is an acceptable way of life.
Soriano isn't without his questions either. He has missed most of three seasons since 2004, including 2008 most recently with a mixture of injuries - some shoulder soreness, a groin strain, and a side strain. He's also dealt with a concussion, oblique strains, and Tommy John surgery. The exact costs in which he'll require are unknown as well. Yes, there's a strong chance he will repeat as a Type-A free agent next off-season, but as the Braves found out this year, that isn't always a guarantee; especially with non-elite free agent relievers.
So how good is he?
Over his last three healthy seasons (2009-6, minus 2008) he's posted FIP of 2.54, 4.17, and 3.43. Obviously a repeat of 2009 would be fantastic, but also unlikely. Of those, 3.43 is almost exactly in the middle and probably what most people will go off. If you apply the 5-3-2 weighing to his last three healthy seasons FIP you get an average of 3.2. Add in another 2 for league average adjustment - note: this is seriously just a league average reliever, so this projection is actually a bit more conservative than it could be - and you get 3.39 - or basically J.P. Howell's 2008, which is great.
League adjustment is going to be something I feel we'll discuss a lot. Scouts think he has the stuff to succeed in baseball's toughest division - and I would agree - and based on his previous AL seasons in the bullpen it would seem like he can step right in and post a sub-4 FIP, but those seasons were a long time ago and while they aren't 100% irrelevant, they shouldn't be weighed nowhere near as much as the most recent seasons. Below is a list of 2009 relievers who came from the National League and how they fared in at least 40 innings worth. This is FIP and xFIP so as to neutralize whether it was luck or worse pitching:
| Pitcher | 2008 xFIP | 2008 FIP | 2009 xFIP | 2009 FIP | xFIP Net | FIP Net |
| Wuertz | 4.35 | 4.3 | 2.61 | 2.37 | -1.74 | -1.93 |
| Springer | 4.32 | 3.51 | 4.62 | 4.06 | 0.3 | 0.55 |
| Lyon | 4.1 | 3.84 | 4.24 | 4.06 | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| Wood | 3.07 | 2.32 | 4.11 | 4.15 | 1.04 | 1.83 |
| Saito | 2.98 | 2 | 4.86 | 4.25 | 1.88 | 2.25 |
| Fuentes | 3.05 | 2.24 | 4.94 | 4.42 | 1.89 | 2.18 |
| Cruz | 4 | 3.62 | 5.52 | 4.92 | 1.52 | 1.3 |
| Nelson | 3.58 | 3.45 | 5.36 | 5.65 | 1.78 | 2.2 |
That's a small sample size, but the average shift in FIP is about 1. Soriano is a better pitcher than quite a few of those on the list, so let's say he only feels a little bit of the change and posts a FIP around 3.7. That would be Howell's 2009 season all over again, which is good. If Soriano pitched like that on last year's club, he would've given the Rays three relief pitchers under 3.8 FIP. The Yankees had four; the Red Sox two; and the Blue Jays three.
How's this for coincidence. The Rays have Howell, who's entry we've taken to calling chill time. Well, as best as I can find, Soriano enters to a song called Fuego - Spanish for fire.
143 comments | 0 recs |
Report: Tampa Bay Rays/Atlanta Braves Could Finalize Rafael Soriano Trade Thursday Morning
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 9, 2009 11:13 PM EST
35 comments
This Tweet from David O'Brien of the AJC:
Sounds like Braves-Rays could finalize a Rafael Soriano deal as soon as tomorrow morning.
There's not much else to add at this point. No names have been mentioned as a return and last I heard (which was hours ago, mind you) other teams were still talking to Atlanta. If it happens, we'll analyze the specifics then. Don't get too hyped up about this, but also realize the Rays could very well be on the verge of adding a good reliever without giving up a first round pick.
Let's take this time to address Milton Bradley as well.
There's nothing new on that front. There hasn't been anything new in months. The Cubs have tried and tried again to bluff the Rays into jumping on a deal or roping another team into the proceedings and nothing has worked. The ol' ‘mystery team' card was successful, if you also consider aiming for India and hitting America a successful voyage and well ... hey, history books do. Good going Cubs, this is the first thing you've done worthy of a parade in over a century.
35 comments | 0 recs |
More Tampa Bay Rays News and Rumors for December 9th: Rays "Front Runners" for Rafael Soriano, Texas Rangers Show Interest In Dioner Navarro, and More
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 9, 2009 4:30 PM EST
155 comments
The biggest and boldest new rumor is clearly Rafael Soriano to the Rays. Here's the latest update:
[Note by R.J. Anderson, 12/09/09 4:50 PM EST ]
Soriano deal could get done today, sources say. Rays very interested but balking at $ and player(s)
---
Rays looking like frontrunner for reliever Soriano — 4:07 p.m.
Tampa Bay appears ready to finally address the two-year late-inning bullpen problem. The key for the Rays is coming to grips with the fact they will have to expand the payroll a few million dollars to accommodate a closer.
The Rays and Houston are making the strongest push to acquire right-handed closer Rafael Soriano from Atlanta with growing indications that the Rays are likely to make the move.
Ringolsby isn't the most analytical writer in the world, so his emphasis on closers is going to be quite a bit stronger than someone like, say, Larry Stone. Regardless, we'll keep you updated if we hear/see anything further. Worth noting is that Houston is on the verge of acquiring another Rays target, Matt Lindstrom, which would -- presumably -- take them out of the Soriano race.
After the jump, the latest on Dioner Navarro and the Texas Rangers.
155 comments | 0 recs |
Report: Tampa Bay Rays Trying to Trade for Atlanta Braves Reliever Rafael Soriano
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 9, 2009 2:55 PM EST
145 comments
This comes way of Ken Rosenthal's Twitter (H/T Jonah Keri):
@Ken_Rosenthal: Rays, Astros the teams trying to trade for R. Soriano.
Soriano was a Type-A before accepting arbitration. That would be great and all, but the Braves had already signed a Type-A reliever of their own (Billy Wagner) and added a new set-up man (Takashi Saito). Rather than paying the bills on three expensive relievers, and since they cannot trade Saito already, the Braves are looking to move Soriano instead as the rules permit such movement after an acceptance of arbitration.
Soriano is good. Very, very good. His career xFIP is 3.65 while his career FIP is even lower at 3.31. He strands runners at an above average rate, and avoids bats very well (74.3% contact for his career). Soriano is a flyball pitcher and he will cost some change next year. It'll be interesting to see whether the Rays can sweeten the pot by giving Atlanta enough so as to receive some financial help in return.
Olney with this:
ATL asking for solid recent for Rafael Soriano, in addition to having other team pick up $. Unclear whether sometimes bites on asking price.
I'm assuming "sometimes" is suppose to be "someone".
145 comments | 0 recs |
Tampa Bay Rays News and Rumors for December 9th: Andrew Friedman on the Market, Potential Interest in Reynel Pinto, Dioner Navarro Speculation, and More
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 9, 2009 10:00 AM EST
349 comments
Andrew Friedman
Bill Chastain with a nice article on the Rays willingness to be patient. This quote pretty much sums up winter meeting rumors as a whole:
"Each respective team or agent [they talk to about players], there's at least five teams that are hot and heavy [as far as their interest in that player]," said the Rays' executive vice president of baseball operations, with a twinkle in his eye. "So either we have really good taste, or we're not necessarily getting the straight scoop."
Matt Lindstrom/Reynel Pinto
An interesting addition to the usual Matt Lindstrom rumor, whether intentional or simply by association, is Chastain's inclusion of Marlins lefty Reynel Pinto.
Pinto, like Lindstrom, is arbitration eligible, which means the Marlins are more than eager to move him for something before losing him for nothing. A southpaw with the ability to miss bats, Pinto's biggest struggle throughout his 224 Marlins relief appearances has been his inability to consistently find the zone. His strikeouts per nine is an impressive 8.65, however he's also walked 6 per nine. Factor in that he's always had issues with the long ball, and his track record is less stellar than the other options discussed to date. Certainly there seems to be some potential there, whether it ever comes out or not is to be seen.
Chastain also notes the Rays held trade talks with seven teams yesterday, but that nothing is imminent. Of course that can and has changed in the past. Especially when it comes to these last two nights.
Dioner Navarro
Both, Chastain and T.R. Sullivan mention the Rays as potential trading mates with the Texas Rangers. The reasoning: the Rangers wish to add another catcher, and the Rays have two attractive targets. The Rangers, meanwhile, have a number of bullpen arms that could interest the Rays. Personal favorite Darren O'Day and flame-throwing right-hander Pedro Strop are two names offered in speculation.
349 comments | 0 recs |
Catcher Alternatives from the Left Side
by FreeZorilla on Dec 9, 2009 4:00 AM EST
33 comments
With the departure of Gregg Zaun, it appears the Rays are ready to have Kelly Shoppach catch 120 games or so in 2010.While Shoppach qualifies as serviceable vs right-handed pitching, he excels versus lefties. This should leave the Rays looking for a catcher who can hit from the left side of the dish or at least one has shown the ability to hit either hand adequately. What options are out there? Let's break them down into two categories: internal and external options.
Internal Options
Jose Lobaton
Lobaton is a switch-hitting catcher who was claimed off waivers from the Padres when he was designated for assignment upon acquiring Sean Gallagher from Oakland. The Rays thought enough of Lobaton to keep five catchers on the 40 man roster. The 25 year-old Venezuelan was initially signed as an amateur free agent by the Padres in 2002. Prior to being claimed by the Rays, Lobaton was named the best defensive catcher in the Padres farm system consecutive years. We can probably assume he would at least not be a liability behind the plate.
As for the stick, Lobaton had a brief hiccup at AAA in 2008 with the Padres with a slash of .241/.292/.353 in 148 PA. At all previous levels Lobaton displayed good on-base skills consistently walking comfortably over 10% of the time. Upon being claimed by the Rays he was sent to AA Montgomery where he had a nice line of .262/.376/.452. The previous year in AA he OPSed .760.
The key with Lobaton is he shows much better from the left side of the plate. If we isolate his LHB vs RHP appearances his numbers look like this over the past three years.
|
Year |
Level |
PA |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
ISO |
BB% |
K% |
|
2007 |
A+ |
314 |
0.269 |
0.354 |
0.432 |
0.163 |
11.5% |
22.6% |
|
2008 |
AA |
287 |
0.271 |
0.347 |
0.457 |
0.186 |
11.2% |
22.7% |
|
2009 |
AA |
87 |
0.280 |
0.360 |
0.493 |
0.213 |
10.3% |
19.5% |
|
2009 |
AAA |
107 |
0.284 |
0.352 |
0.432 |
0.148 |
9.4% |
20.6% |
33 comments | 0 recs |
Report: Rays to Meet With LaTroy Hawkins
by Tommy Rancel on Dec 8, 2009 9:20 PM EST
12 comments
The Rays said they would be players in the relief pitching market, however, I didn't think that would include nearly every available warm body with arms attached. It is good to explore all available options and I'm assuming that's what all these rumors are about. The latest rumor comes to us via Jose De Jesus Ortiz who reports that the Rays among other teams have scheduled a meeting with free-agent LaTroy Hawkins.
Hawkins, who will turn 37 before the end of the month, is entering his 15th Major League season. He split the first 14 among seven teams including AL East brethren New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles. Both stops didn't end well. This past season he spent with the Houston Astros where he racked up a shiny 2.13 ERA in 65 appearances thanks to an LOB% of over 90. His FIP and xFIP are a bit higher, but still suggest he was an above average reliever for the Astros in the National League (if you get my drift).
Even at his advanced age, Hawkins still brings the heat (94.2 in 2009) and gets his fair share of ground balls. He also has "closer experience." While I don't mind the tire kicking, the fact that he had a nice ERA and hasn't made less than $2.8 million dollars since 2002 probably puts him out of the Rays price range.
12 comments | 0 recs |
Report: Tampa Bay Rays Interested in Darren Oliver
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 8, 2009 6:46 PM EST
11 comments
This information from Comcast SportsNet:
INDIANAPOLIS -- The agents for veteran left-handed reliever Darren Oliver intend to meet with the Red Sox over the next few days as they seek to find a home for the veteran pitcher.
Oliver has already drawn interest from Toronto, Seattle, Tampa Bay and the New York Mets.
As recently as last off-season Oliver was trapped in a Type-A bubble, given his age and the compensation necessary to sign him, no team outside of the Angels was willing to forfeit a draft pick for the 39-year-old. Despite being an elder statesmen, Oliver has appeared in at least 50 games each of the past three seasons and pitched quite well, with xFIP of 3.92, 4.15, and 4.43. Oliver rarely allows solid contact despite a fastball that sits below 90, although he still packs more power than say, J.P. Howell. He throws with his left arm and misses some bats, plus he's useful against batters of both hands as over the last three years he's held lefties to a .717 OPS and righties to a .616 OPS (I guess he digs numerical palindromes too, eh?). He figures to be in the Rays' price range.
11 comments | 0 recs |
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