Crowd-Sourcing Carl Crawford and His Contract
by Steve Slowinski on Sep 2, 2010 1:01 PM EDT
58 comments
Over at FanGraphs, they recently tried a new feature: using their large quantity of readers to "crowd-source" a prediction. They're trying this concept to estimate the contract size of upcoming free agents, and they started with Carl Crawford. Here are the results:
Average length: 5.5 years
Average salary: $16.4 millionMedian length: 5 years
Median salary: $17 millionStandard deviation, years: 0.93 years
Standard deviation, salary: $2.91 million
As Dave Cameron notes in the article, if these numbers end up being accurate, Crawford would be a relative bargain; sixteen million a season is comparatively cheap for a player of his caliber. Whether the Rays would be able to afford that contract is another story, but let's not think about that yet...
And so, I'm curious how the DRaysBay community feels. Do you believe Crawford will sign for a similar size contract, or do you expect him to go for more/less than the FanGraphs estimate? Let's do our own crowd-sourcing and see what numbers we get. How big of a contract do you expect Crawford to sign and how long will it be?
More Lineup Protection: A Look at Where Pitchers Pitched Evan Longoria During Carlos Pena's Absence
by PGP on Sep 2, 2010 10:00 AM EDT
11 comments
Evan Longoria's slump from 8/1 to 8/15, which coincided with a DL stint from Carlos Pena, is well documented. His Ks, went up, his BABIP went down, his walks went down, and his balls weren't leaving the yard. Since Pena has returned, Longo has too. He's put up an OPS of 1.142 with 4 homers in the dozen or so games since Pena has returned.
The article mentioned above found that pitchers gave him less fastballs and he was swinging at more stuff (barring changeups). The general consensus seemed to be that the best thing to look at, more than pitch selection, was pitch location in relation to swinging. A look at the results of me dabbling in pitch f/x after the jump.
David Price Wins a Nail-Biter; Rays Take Series from Blue Jays
by Steve Slowinski on Sep 2, 2010 6:00 AM EDT
56 comments
Ah, what a game. It's fun watching a pitchers' duel, but even more fun when your team wins. Price versus Marcum looked like a marquee match-up on paper, and the two didn't disappoint.
David Price brought his best stuff to the game tonight, going eight innings while allowing six baserunners (four hits, two walks) and striking out seven. He made a batter swing and miss at his two-seam fastball, four-seam fastball, curveball, change-up, slider - every single one of his pitches. In all, he totaled 15 swinging strikes (14% of his total pitches) with most of them coming off his fastballs. Price seems to have reached a consistent game plan: pump heat early in the game, blowing your fastball by batters, and then catch them off guard with your change-up and curveball their second and third time through the order.
Last night, Price got a little bit lucky and unlucky. On the lucky side, there were multiple hard hit balls that the Rays' defense scooped up and turned into outs, including diving stops by Evan Longoria in the second inning and Jason Bartlett in the fourth.* But at the same time, Price also got squeezed by the home plate umpire on a couple occasions, especially early in the game. After the first couple innings, though, Price got calls in his favor on both sides of the plate, so it all evens out in the end.
*Criticize Bartlett's defense all you want: that was a legitimately nice play.
Offensively, the Rays couldn't get much going - that is, all Rays except Sean Rodriguez. Rodriguez was a double short of hitting for the cycle and he put the Rays' on the board with a solo homerun in the sixth inning, tying the game at one. He was also in position to score again in the seventh inning, reaching second base with no outs, but was stranded there when Brad Hawpe struck out and Navarro and Bartlett grounded out. The Rays snuck their final run on the board courtesy of a botched pick-off attempt, allowing Carl Crawford to advance into a position to score single to left field by Longoria.
- Brad Hawpe is now officially a Ray: four strikeouts and five left on base in one game. Is our DH position cursed or something?
- Speaking of Brad Hawpe, there was an interesting managerial moment concerning his at-bat in the eighth inning. I could go into details, but RJ Anderson already did; in short, Maddon should have pinch-hit for Hawpe with Shoppach. It's not often that you see Maddon miss a chance to play match-ups, and this definitely appears like a minor blunder.
- Desmond Jennings did not have a good major league debut; he was hitless in three at-bats, including two weak groundballs. He hustled like crazy out of the box, though; he's going to make infields rush play and botch throws for years to come.
- For a game against the Blue Jays, that was a very tense and exciting game. They're a better team than they get credit for, so thankfully we only have three more games against them this season.
Dan Johnson Interview
Dan Johnson getting interviewed after winning the International League's MVP award. Goodness, I love this guy.
Ben Zobrist: A Valuable Letdown
by BWoodrum on Sep 1, 2010 1:00 PM EDT
in Features
141 comments
A few days ago, our very own sternfan1 -- whom I love with all my blogging heart -- posted an OPS analysis of Ben Zobrist entitled "We have our very own One Hit Wonder." In it, he rightly observes that Zobrist is woefully falling short of our already-tempered expectations. SF1 even goes so far as to make the most egregious of comparisons:
And the beauty of all this, the Rays have committed $17 million dollars to this Nick Green clone over the next three seasons[.]
Aside of SF1's signature use of hyperbole, it indeed has begun to feel that Ben Zobrist has returned to his slap-hitting, under-achieving ways (he would have to be in a wheel chair to match Nick Green's output, though). But, before we let our eyes and OPS tell us the whole story, let's dig deeper into the present Zobrist virus:
141 comments | 2 recs |
The Disappearance of Reid Brignac
by Erik Hahmann on Sep 1, 2010 10:00 AM EDT
85 comments
The season started off so promising for Reid Brignac. In April, he sported a .334 wOBA and then followed that with a .373 in May. He even drew nine walks combined over those two months, which is a lot considering he has racked up just seven more in June, July, and August. The month of June didn't see Brignac fare particularly well - his wOBA for the month was .253 - but the same could be said of just about everyone on the offense. His plate appearances over the first three months fall right in line with what one would expect from a platoon player: 44, 74, 71. However, the last two months have seen his PAs fall to 55 in July and just 34 in August. What was once a solid shortstop platoon has transformed into a one-man band with Jason Bartlett beating the drum.
Take a look at the games in August in which the Rays have faced a right handed starting pitcher (in reverse order) , and which player of Brignac and Bartlett has started:
1. Lackey: Bartlett
2. Buccholz: Bartlett
3. Haren: Brignac
4. Santana: Bartlett
5. Mazarro: Bartlett
6. Cahill: Brignac
7. Hunter: Bartlett
8. Arrietta: Bartlett
9. Guthrie: Brignac
10. Verlander: Bartlett
11. Scherzer: Bartlett
12. Galarraga: Bartlett
13. Morrow: Bartlett
14. Slowey: Brignac
15. Baker: Bartlett
16. Pavano: Brignac at 2B, Bartlett at SS
That's 16 games, with Brignac getting the start at shortstop four times and second base once. Jason Bartlett, he of the career .691 OPS and .307 wOBA, started the other 12 times. Though it's a much smaller sample size, 318 PA, Brignac has a .723 OPS and .313 wOBA vs RHP. Brignac also has the advantage of unquestionably being the better defender. So then what is keeping him planted on the bench?
There isn't one correct answer to that question. His August numbers aren't lending much support to his cause. Granted, it's a very small sample size of 34 PA, but these numbers are far from inspiring: 2.9% BB, 40.6% K, .156/.176/.156 slash line, .250 BABIP, and a .143 wOBA. What seems to be a main cause behind those uninspiring numbers is Brignac's 10.0% line drive rate (LD%) and 50.0% fly ball rate (FB%). In Brignac's previous bad month, June, his FB% was also 50.0 while it fluctuated between 32%-37% in his good months of April, May, and July. His LD% had also never dipped below 21.4% and never rose above 23.7% in any previous month. A .250 BABiP certainly doesn't help things, but when you're hitting fly balls in half of your plate appearances it's hard to expect it to be much higher. It's likely a combination of bad luck and bad approach, but needless to say, Brignac needs to work on keeping the ball down if he hopes to see his numbers improve.
Another factor could simply be Joe Maddon's preference to have the veteran presence of
There is one month left in the season and the Rays are in a dog fight for the division title. Even though the shortstop position is arguably the weakest on the team, they’re likely going to need to squeeze every last bit of production out of each position to come out on top. If the Rays feel like giving a significant amount of September at bats to
Niemann Stumbles Again, Rays Fall to Jays13-5
by hallax3 on Sep 1, 2010 7:00 AM EDT
119 comments
Through the first five innings of tonight's game, Jeff Niemann did his best to make us forget about his last start (3.1 IP, 8 hits, 10 runs, 2 strikeouts, 3 walks, one home run, if it somehow slipped your mind). Using 66 pitches to navigate the first five frames, Niemann generated seven swinging strikes (10.6%) and, other than allowing a solo home run to John McDonald in the second inning, was nearly impossible to get a good swing on.
Ricky Romero was just as strong for the Jays, facing the minimum through four innings while allowing two walks: Zobrist in the third and Upton in the fourth, both runners erased on double plays. Romero hiccuped in the fifth inning, giving up walks to Longoria and Rodriguez then an RBI single to Zobrist and a two RBI double to Dan Johnson. With the Rays up 3 - 1 through five innings and Niemann on cruise control, the game seemed to be in good shape...
A flip was switched, as they say, and the sixth inning brought in some bizarro baseball.
The Jays started out the inning with some unexpected small ball. Fred Lewis executed a perfect bunt down the third base line that Longoria could only watch as it tiptoed on the chalk.Three pitches later, Lewis stole second and then scored on Dewayne Wise's single to right center. The Jays are last in the Majors in stolen bases with 44, but stole three bases off of the Neimann/Shoppach battery tonight.
The Big Nyquil got a wakeup call as he lost control and allowed the Jays to rack up five runs on two singles, three doubles, and a hit batsmen without recording an out before he was taken out in the sixth. Lance Cormier would enter the game and allow five more runs on home runs by Aaron Hill and Jose Bautista (one run charged to Niemann) leaving the Jays with a ten run sixth and effectively ending the game.
And that's all there really is to say. Niemann threw five innings of one run ball and then imploded in the sixth. Without being a trainer, it seemed that Niemann simply ran out of steam. While not ideal, this can be chalked up to this being his second start off of the DL and hopefully we can expect the Big Nyquil to return to form in his next start. I don't expect this Davis/Niemann Freaky Friday situation to last too much longer.
- The Yankees won, which puts the Rays one game back for the division, but thankfully the Red Sox lost and remain seven games back in the wild card.
- Jose Bautista did his best...well, 2010 Jose Bautista impression tonight (2-3, HR, BB, HBP, 4 RBI). Or maybe it was 2007 Carlos Pena...
- After stroking a two RBI double in the 5th, Dan Johnson tried to stretch it to three and was thrown out easily to end the inning. I know "They" say Joe Maddon doesn't believe in the common baseball adages and just wants his players to be aggressive on the base path, but with Romero on the ropes and Upton swinging a hot bat on deck, I wonder what might have been.
September 1st and a Potential Play-Off Roster Preview
by Transplanted on Sep 1, 2010 7:00 AM EDT
10 comments
It's the only remaining exciting day left on the calendar, September 1, until the last day of the season. Each team has about 30 games remaining on their schedules. The Rays find themselves in a good position this year. They have a record of 81-51, second best in baseball and only a mere 1 game back from the New York Yankees for the overall best record and division lead. As the Wild Card leader, the Rays have a 7 game lead over division rival the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox and Rays only have 3 games left to play against each other, making it extremely difficult for them to catch up. The Red Sox also still have a west coast trip left this year and their last 10 games are @NYY, @CHW, NYY compared to the Rays who have a final 10 of BAL, SEA, @KCR. Needless to say, if you can't win those, you probably on't deserves to go to the playoffs.
Now, onto the Rays potential roster.
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