How Much Are The Rays Saving On James Shields?
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 25, 2009 6:00 AM EST
14 comments
It has been two full seasons since James Shields signed his potential seven year, $44 million dollar contract. In reality, all that is guaranteed is four years and $11.25 million, but the way things look now, an option year or two is likely. The Rays way is all about getting value for dollars. We need value, but lack the dollars.
The Shields extension has been lauded in the sabermetric community as being one of the best deals in recent years. And it really is in terms of real dollars for production. Using WAR dollars, Shields has been worth $37.6 million dollars over the past two seasons while earning just $2.5. That's a fantastic value, but it's not "real" dollars.
James Shields will undoubtedly earn his contract. In fact, he already has. In his career, he has given the Rays $63 million dollars worth of production for $2.9 million dollars. If he maxes out the contract (years and dollars), his WAR value would be somewhere between $100-$150 million dollars.
But how many -- if any -- real dollars are the Rays saving?
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Arguelles is expected to receive a contract in the neighborhood of those given to Dayan Viciedo(notes) and Jose Iglesias, two other high-profile Cuban defectors. Viciedo, a third baseman, signed last winter with the Chicago White Sox for $10 million, and Iglesias, a shortstop with whom Arguelles defected last year in Canada, received an $8.2 million major league contract with the Boston Red Sox
Jeff Passan lists the Rays amongst the four teams most interested in the Cuban arm, alongside the A's, M's, and Yankees -- who also have Aroldis Chapman on their plate.
An Interview With Jonah Keri
by Erik Hahmann on Nov 24, 2009 6:00 AM EST
25 comments
In continuing our series of interviews with people in and around the game of baseball we're joined by friend of the site and sports writing vagabond extraordinaire, Jonah Keri. We talk about Crawford, Bradley, instant replay, the financial state of the game, and two young LOOGYS on the rise. Enjoy.
EH: Lets kick this off with the $64,000 question. Crawford and the Rays, what happens?
JK: Depends on how the Rays fare in 2010, I imagine. If they fall out of the race early, I can't imagine Crawford's not traded. If they're in it, oddly, that might be the time to push for a possible contract extension.
Figure the order of most to least desirable outcomes goes like this:
Rays contend all year, re-sign Crawford at a discount.
Rays fall out of contention, trade him for a package like Kazmir's or better, with a mix of 0-to-3 guys and prospects.
Rays let Crawford walk, collect compensatory draft picks - DRaysBay has done a good job of noting that picks are no sure thing (i.e. you might not sign the guy) and that they're not cheap.
I doubt they trade him this off-season.
EH: Crawford is obviously the hot button issue of the winter, but asTommy brought up last week, Carlos Pena is another name who could be moved before the end of next season. How do you see the first base situation shaking out?
JK: Every Rays fan loves Los, between his great production and his winning personality. But it's hard not to love, say, Los fetching a B+ prospect and a power RP with 0-to-3 years of service time. If they can land a deal like that, then turn around and sign, say, Russell Branyan or Nick Johnson to a short-term deal for less money, that has to considered. If I had to guess, though, I'd say the Rays keep Crawford and Pena and Bartlett for now, even though an argument could be made to trade any one of them. You can't overstate how much that Kazmir trade helped the budget.
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BenBadler: Personal favorite Hector Guevara (Rays) hitting .387/.482/.602 in 112 PAs in VZ's Liga Parelela. Best prospect you don't know
1 day ago
R.J. Anderson
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0 recs
Ben Zobrist Finishes 8th in AL MVP Voting
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 23, 2009 2:14 PM EST
17 comments
Congrats to the much-deserving Joe Mauer.
Miguel Cabrera received a first place vote, Ben Zobrist did not finish above sixth on any ballot.
Zobrist: played meaningful defensive position, hit .297/.405/.543 with 27 home runs.
Cabrera: plays first base, hit .324/.396/.547 with 34 home runs.
Full results here. That's really all I care to write about this.
Update: Apparently Larry Stone was the one to vote Zobrist the highest. Dave Cameron and Derek Zumsteg constantly preach about how good Stone is so this is an unsurprising outcome.
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A Not-So Theoretical Theoretical
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 23, 2009 11:15 AM EST
40 comments
Given the current roster construction and ignoring salary, length of contract, etc., which player would you rather have in the Rays lineup:
Player A: 33-years-old, right-handed, last three years has averaged 145 games played and a .360 wOBA when weighed by plate appearances.
Player B: Turns 32 in April, switch-hitter, last three years has averaged 104 games played and weighted-by-plate appearance wOBA of .390.
The first question you (should) have is whether defensive value comes into play. In this scenario ti does not. The second should be "How many plate appearances does 145 and 104 games translate into?" Which I will provide in this space:
Player A three-year PA average: 573
Player B three-year PA average: 409
Now, which player creates more runs? The lesser performer with more consistent health or the wild card who offers more reward with his greater risk? Let's do some math.
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Gabe Kapler is Off the Bases like the Spiderman Logo
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 23, 2009 5:00 AM EST
4 comments
As hopefully everyone knows, WAR does not account for baserunning. Stolen bases and caught stealing are included, but stuff like advancing to third from first are not. I suppose you could call it a hidden value in player evaluation that even the best metric in the land is yet to fully encompass - for now at least - so rather than pretend it doesn't happen, or stone the people who point this out, let's look at the Rays baserunners to see who benefits and who does not.
Note that all of these statistics are way of Baseball-Reference.
First up, the number of times a batter is on first when a single is hit. I set the bar at 10 times because this seems to coincide nicely with 200 plate appearances received. Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton lead the pack and were amongst the team leaders in plate trips, so hey, it works out just fine. Amusingly, Upton lead the team with 37 occurrences; here are the rest of the qualifiers:
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A Poll For Fun
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 22, 2009 7:06 PM EST
7 comments
And future article purposes.
Note: A handful is five or so. Two is ten or so, etc.
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