Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Knicks 90, Raptors 87: "Shump and Lin wouldn't let us lose."

Jake's Take: "Waiting is the hardest part...."

This entire offseason has taken it's toll on the Rays fanbase. It's basically split between "Trade Optimists" and "Lack of Movement Pessimists". Neither side is completely right and neither is completely wrong. Luckily, no animals or people have been harmed because of this squabble.

When you look at the AL East right now, it's 4 teams with alot of movement and changes and 1 team with basically no changes from last year's final rosters.

Guess which team is the Rays....

However if you look into many of the moves made by those 4 other teams, you'll notice that those teams haven't really improved as greatly(as originally thought) or at all. The AL East is full of teams filling in holes, however opening new holes.

I may not sell you all on my thoughts, but take a look at what I'm seeing. I'll go team-by-team.

New York Yankees: The Yankees major moves this offseason was resigning Hideki Matsui, signing Kyle Farnsworth and Octavio Dotel to help the bullpen and tearing Johnny Damon away from the Red Sox Nation. Have the Yankees improved?

Not really... They still have a rotation on the fringe of totally imploding within. Last year's new arms are injury-prone and getting older. Pavano was vastly overrated and had probably his best stastical season of his career in his contract year with the Marlins. Jaret Wright proved that he's nothing without the help of Leo Mazzone and he's also a target for batted balls. Johnny Damon gave the Yankees a legit lead-off hitter, but they didn't take into the fact that he was one of the worst defensive CFers in baseball. The signings of Farnsworth & Dotel were kinda dumb, just for the fact that Farnsworth is highly combustible and overrated and Dotel will not likely be ready until the 2nd Half of the 2006 season. The Yankees will score alot of runs next year, but with the declining skills of their pitchers...they'll just give them back up.

Boston Red Sox: The major moves of the Boston Red Sox was the unexpected loss of Theo Epstein on Halloween, the initial kindling of the "Great Florida Marlins Firesale of 2005" by acquiring Beckett-Lowell-Mota for prospects, trading Edgar Renteria for a 3B prospect named Andy Marte and the unforseen loss of "Passion of the" Johnny Damon. Unbeknownst to the Red Sox Nation, Larry Luccino turned the legendary "Fenway Pawk" into an amusement park for the 2006 season.

If Charles Dickens was a sportwrier and still alive, Boston's Offseason Summary would be named "A Tale of 2 Offseasons". Acquiring Josh Beckett may have been the best move of any team this offseason, however the Red Sox Mgmt. thought they had to do more to keep the Yankees off their backs.... Boy did that backfire on the future of the 2006 team(however, it didn't ruin their future). They used the Winter Meetings to acquire blue-chip 3B Andy Marte for SS Edgar Renteria. Yeah, this trade would be great....if they had a back-up plan at SS. Now they have 4 3rd Baseman(Youkilis, Marte, Lowell and Cora) and and 0 short-stops. Then Brian Cashman and the Yankees landed the biggest sucker-punch in the ongoing fight between the "Evil Empire and the Red Sox Nation" with the signing of Johnny Damon. This blow may have a snowball effect because Manny Ramirez, being Manny, has declared that he'll waive his no-trade clause and is willing to be dealt to the NL superspending New York Mets. So the Red Sox have holes at the Short-stop and Centerfield spots that are hard-to-fill due to the major Free Agents already being signed. A deal with the Devil Rays may be even impending, due to their unwillingness to trade just to make trades early on in the offseason. Knowing the Rays, if they do make a trade with Boston...it'll cost the Red Sox dearly.

Toronto Blue Jays: Hey big spenders! The Toronto Blue Jays newly found wealth has netted them the highest paid closer in the MLB in BJ Ryan, the top starter on the market in TJ-patient AJ Burnett, traded 2 arms and a Spring Training Superslugger for Lyle Overbay and are reportedly trading for Troy Glaus in their 2nd "Big" trade of this Offseason.

On paper, the Blue Jays have spent their way to the top. On paper, they are legit contenders for the AL East. Yet, if you look into it...they really put themselves into a bit of trouble for the future. BJ Ryan was a great closer in his 1st full season of duty in 2005, but with his contract and his move being on fans minds...he has to pitch to his full potential to not get ragged on by fans. Next, AJ Burnett is a great starter but he's yet to put together the numbers that everyone has expected out of him in the majors. His pitching has led him to the surgeon's table before and I wouldn't doubt if he returned there again. The acquisition of Lyle Overbay was pretty nice for them, with his consistant numbers he's put up in Milwaukee....but they gave up good arms in Bush and Jackson to get him. That's a risky gamble with a team trying to contend now and contend for the future as well. Now, there's rumors that Troy Glaus may be heading to Toronto in exchange for Orlando Hudson and Miguel Bautista. Glaus is a good hitter, when healthy, but the Blue Jays just gave away their best defensive player in exchange for another 1B/3B player. They'll be a better hitting team, but they'd be alot worse defensively. Risky, Risky, Risky...

Baltimore Orioles: The Baltimore Orioles have quietly made some moves this offseason when they hired pitching guru Leo Mazzone to teach their young arms how to pitch at their full potential, traded 1 crummy reliever(Kline) for another(Hawkins), got a new catcher(Ramon Hernandez), lost their closer to a divisional rival(Ryan) and could possibly be trading their best offensive player.

The Baltimore Orioles exceeded everybody's expectations last season and led the AL East for the first few months. Then it all fell apart.... Their pitching fell apart, Brian Roberts cooled off and fired their manager. They haven't really made any improvements in their offseason and they shouldn't expect a repeat of last year's small taste of success. Roberts is recovering from a surgery that ended his season early last year and will probably not return to his 2005 form. They've yet to decide on who their closer will be going into Spring Training. Their only positive is that Leo Mazzone knows how to make marginal pitchers good ones and they hope that he can do that outside of Atlanta.

Right now, the Rays have basically the same team that they did last year and they still have the "Trading Chips" that they had at the beginning of the offseason with alot less teams needing players like them anymore. Some look at this as a negative(they won't trade these players and will basically have the same team that almost lost 100 games last season) and some look at this as a positive(Needy teams will be desperate and make risky trades that give us more than their worth).

Nonetheless, we need to support our team(or try to) and gotta believe in management a little more than we have so far. The Rays have players that are very raw and have loads of potential and just need to play to it. We've got the basic foundation of our future team set and we've just got to make deals/trades that build on it.

Comment 17 comments  |  0 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

Can't argue too much...
I might actually be even more skeptical of the Jays' moves, and give the O's more credit for the Mazzone snatch (though I think that will be a longer-term benefit, not necessarily for next season).  I'm skeptical of the Yankees' moves as well.

Should I be frightened?  I think this is at least the second time I've agreed with you...

by Not That Chuck on Dec 23, 2005 4:04 PM EST reply actions  

Just a little...
And I didn't even have to Chloroform you, yet....

by Jacob Larsen on Dec 23, 2005 4:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Thats unusual...
I didn't even mention Lou at all in this story...

by Jacob Larsen on Dec 23, 2005 10:26 PM EST reply actions  

In my honest opinion...
We don't really need to buy arms.... not just yet.

If we'd lower our standards a bit and give some of our pitchers a little of leeway instead of jumping all over them.

Kazmir will walk people now, but he's show that if he's not fatigued and "in the zone"...he can be a legitimate "ace" pitcher.

McClung gets the most crap than any other pitcher on this team does, leave this guy alone. He's just coming off elbow surgery and he's starting to adjust again and it's showing a bit that he's turning the corner and can be a dominant pitcher.

Fossum is a mystery to me right now. He's been flip-flopped a few times as a pitcher and I think he needs to be given an adjustment period as a Starter. He showed fatigue last season near the end, but I think that was because he hadn't pitched that much in his career before then.

I honestly think that our 4th and possible 5th starter in the future will come from Durham. Jason Hammel and Jamie Shields don't get the credit that they deserve and I think one of them will step it up this season and one will be thrown into the Rays' rotation by season's end.

2 Other names that should be considered as darkhorses in the future Rays pitching rotation is Andy Sonnastine and Chris Seddon. Seddon had somewhat of a disappointing year last season and he could possibly fix whatever problems were plaguing him and step it up. Andy Sonnastine will be in Montgomery next season and will start to be really tested by hitters. If he can pitch effectively there and continue to keep his BB and ERA numbers low, he might get a call-up as well.

After this season weeds out who are the future parts of the Rays rotation, I believe that we should strive to find a starter in the Free Agent Market. It'll be alot smarter financially to do it that way...

Instead of trying to form a rotation out of 2-3 Free Agents, try to put together one from within first and then complete it with a Free Agent.

by Jacob Larsen on Dec 23, 2005 10:59 PM EST reply actions  

BP
BP took a look at the Rays pitching situation.  

I thought you would like the first paragraph, Jake.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4672

One other thing struck my fancy..
Brazelton was eighth on Waechter's list of PECOTA comparable pitchers last winter.

Ah, my Brazelton-Waechter comparison did have at least some merit.  I bring it back up only because there was an entry on this site about that subject many months ago.  I get an uneasy feeling when Jim disagrees with me.  Heh.

Good job, Jake.  You've grown to be quite a good writer and your style is well-suited to blogging.

by RATW on Dec 23, 2005 11:45 PM EST reply actions  

Thanks
BP pretty much hit the nail right on the head in this article... We're not an intriguing destination this year for Staring Pitchers who are Free Agents this year, and for the most part...none of them were really worth a look at. Why force yourself into signing someone who is just going to take the money and not have productive seasons until their next contract year.

Yeah, I'll pass....

A team that did this last year was the Milwaukee Brewers, who went 81-81 with a staff who had pretty much 1 "ace" pitcher and a bunch of young and underrated pitchers. Chris Capuano came out of nowhere and had 18 wins, I picked him up as a gamble in a fantasy league and I reaped the benefits. I could see Fossum or McClung finding their niche on the team and having an "out-of-nowhere" season like this. I'd be happy to see "Seth's Splitter" or the "Fossum Flip" doing damage and racking up Ks.

As for your compliment, thank you RATW...I appreciate it. I figure that having "Jake's Take" is an easy way to pass along my opinions than trying to fit them in a essay-like story. I'm one of the most opinionated and loud-mouth Rays fans writing on the web right now...why not do "Jake's Take" when I have an axe to grind or a complaint to make.

by Jacob Larsen on Dec 24, 2005 12:43 AM EST up reply actions  

Damon?
Damon's arm is weak, but I'd go so far as to say there's not a professional scout alive who'd agree with you that he's one of the worst defensive center fielders in baseball.  He has plus range and good instincts.  For what they're worth, UZR and Rate2 both rate Damon as solid to above average in CF, corroborating the opinions of scouts.

by jhelfgott @ DRaysBay on Dec 24, 2005 2:33 PM EST reply actions  

We'll see....
I've read reports that Damon is average at best and we'll see how he does in Yankee Stadium next year.

by Jacob Larsen on Dec 24, 2005 5:27 PM EST up reply actions  

From what I've heard.........
Damon is an average defender and an average hitter with a noodle arm. The Hardball Times. had a good story about the whole signing thing

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Dec 24, 2005 8:39 PM EST reply actions  

So it appears...
A few professional scouts would agree with me...

by Jacob Larsen on Dec 24, 2005 9:50 PM EST up reply actions  

hm
In your desire to criticize the Damon move, you've consistently conflated "average" with "one of the worst defensive CFers in baseball" (your words).  It doesn't take a genius to see the flaw in that rhetoric.  If you read the article Patrick linked to, you'd see that it said pretty much exactly what I said: Damon's not a gold glover in center, but he's solid.  Brattain's not a professional scout, but that's pretty much the conventional wisdom, borne out consistently by myriad scouting reports and statistical evidence.

by jhelfgott @ DRaysBay on Dec 26, 2005 4:12 PM EST reply actions  

Here's the question...
...how much of an improvement will Damon be over Bernie Williams and the Cast of Thousands that were attempting to patrol CF last year in NY?  Defensively speaking, that is.  Arm-wise I would think zero.

by Not That Chuck on Dec 28, 2005 1:11 PM EST reply actions  

Arm strength
A great myth about outfield defense is that an outfielder's arm is one of, if not the most important aspect of their defensive game.  Simply put, this isn't the case.

In 2005, the average number of outfield assists among CFers who played at least 50 games was 5.4.  Baseball Think Factory calculated the run value of outfield assists at a nice, round 1.0.

Damon in 2005 recorded 5 outfield assists, or .4 runs below average.  BP, BTF, THT, and SABR are pretty much in agreement that 10 runs contributed above average on either offense or defense amounts to roughly 1 win.  That means Damon's arm cost the Red Sox four-hundredths of a win below an average defensive center fielder last year.

The most outfield assists recorded by a CFer last year was 12, by Vernon wells.  So, the difference between the best center field arm in the league and a below average arm, based on calculated run values, is .7 wins.

Clearly there are other factors that a good outfield arm influences.  Things such as holding runners on second on a single or at third on a double are difficult to quantify.  However, none of these things have as high a run value as the outfield assist.  

Defense is incredibly hard to quantify, but when the best in the league at something is worth less than a win over someone who's below average, we can be reasonably certain that the skill does not have a huge impact on the w/l column.  Every halfway decent defensive metric out there finds a way to assign far more weight to range than to arm strength.

In terms of overall defense, Bernie Williams's 3-year average rate2 for 2003-2005 is 97.7, 2.3 runs below average.  Damon's is 102, 2 runs above average.  According to this metric, then, Damon's been worth about .4 wins above Williams with the glove for the past 3 years.  Rate2 is a valiant attempt to quantify defense, but it's far from perfect.  

Generally I think it's safe to say that Damon's slightly better with the glove than Williams, and a much better bet to retain his skills over the next few years.  The fact that he doesn't have a great arm isn't that big of a deal.

by jhelfgott @ DRaysBay on Dec 28, 2005 5:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Skeptical
about most of the metrics so far applied to defense, I will simply note that I disagree.  And at any rate, a below-average arm doesn't help.  

Frankly, any team going up against the Yankees should be planning to exploit whatever few weaknesses they can get, and if Damon's arm comes into play so much the better.  I don't doubt that his range is probably better than Williams et al, and therefore he should represent some defensive improvement overall as would seem to be indicated by the stat above, but I would still, if third-base coach for an opposing team, be thinking about opportunities to take the occasional extra base when the ball goes to center.  And a team like the Rays, still likely to be offensively challenged but with some fleet and agressive runners, better be ready to exploit such weakness when the occasion allows.

by Not That Chuck on Dec 28, 2005 5:32 PM EST reply actions  

ok
What, exactly, do you disagree about?  The specifics of how many runs a good arm saves, or the fact that range is more important than arm strength?  

Skepticism about quantifying defense is one thing, but there are two things that are beyond question:

  1. the outfield assist is the most valuable single outcome a strong OF arm can influence.
  2. the best outfield arm in the league was worth 7 more outs over the course of a season than a league average outfield arm last year.
Think about that relative to any other skill players have.  The difference between Williams' 2005 OBP (.321) and Damon's (.366), for instance, is 37 outs over a full season.  

The difference between a guy who's slightly below-average at a certain skill (getting on base) and a guy who's good, but not elite at the same skill, is worth more than five times as many outs as the difference between a below-average arm and the #1 arm in the league.

Without trying to quantify what this means in terms of runs, wins, or defensive skill, it is impossible to look at that number and not conclude that an outfield arm is nowhere near as valuable as other skills players bring to the table.

I share your skepticism of defensive metrics, but regardless, there is no question that range is more important than arm strength.  If you find anecdotal analysis persuasive, consider that the guys commonly considered the best defensive CFs in baseball (Cameron and Hunter) are not guys with cannon arms.  

Is a good OF arm nice to have?  Of course.  It's always nice to have as many ways as possible to create a few extra outs over the course of a season.  Is it a dealbreaker when a player brings several other skills to the table?  Show me a GM who thinks so, and I'll show you a terrible GM.

by jhelfgott @ DRaysBay on Dec 28, 2005 6:00 PM EST up reply actions  

if Sox are rebuilding
Former champs trade their coveted SS and now have NO SS. Alex CIntron or Lugo will be their SS
DRAYS BAY

by David Bloom on Dec 28, 2005 10:28 PM EST reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Founded in 2005, DRaysBay is home to, "Progressive statistical analysis and reasoned argument."

Please read our Community Guidelines.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Small
Zobrist vs Pedroia vs Cano
Scaled_php_small
Rays Community Prospect #31 Runoff

Recent FanPosts

Scaled_php_small
Rays Community Prospect #40
Scaled_php_small
Rays Community Prospects #39
Small
Joe Maddon Town Hall meeting on the Ron and Ian show. Any ideas for questions I should ask?
Scaled_php_small
Rays Community Prospect #37
Scaled_php_small
Rays Community Prospect #35
Scaled_php_small
Rays Community Prospect #34
Scaled_php_small
Rays Community Prospect #33
Scaled_php_small
Rays Community Prospect #32

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

"RHP Brandon Gomes will be behind at the start of spring training after...
2 minor league signings with invitations to spring...
Jeff Bagwell, Fred McGriff, The Hall of Fame, and 400 Home Runs
ESPN Chat with Matt Moore
Danny Clyburn: 1974-2012
Joe Maddon Town Hall Contest
Hickey said as of now all of the starters -- Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann,...
White Sox sign Dan Johnson
Indians acquire Canzler
Justin Ruggiano to Elect Free Agency

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

DRB Fantasy Baseball

Friends of the Site

DRB Suggestion Box

Drb4_medium


Managers

Slowsky__1__small Steve Slowinski

Dad_small Jason Collette

Brad_small BWoodrum

Price_small Erik Hahmann

Analysts

Lob-city_design_small rglass44

Untitled_small EminenceFront

Small Mulva

Rutg_uakjmedjwh9ndzd4lkll_small Imperialism32

100_1952_small MrNegative1

Steak-with-crown_small CBJones

Whelk_small Whelk

Small PGP

Scaled_php_small mr. maniac

Tampa_theatre_small jcmitchell

Me_small John Gregg