Baez on the Block (more details)

by DavidNYC on May 2, 2005 6:17 PM EDT Comment 7 comments

As our host has pointed out, closer Danys Baez is widely believed to be on the trading block.

Available: Closer, Slightly Used

What need have the Devil Rays for an established closer? And is there a greater need among so many potential contenders?

These are two issues the Rays need to be exploring, because Danys Baez might never have more trade value than he does right now.

Baez, who was 30- for-33 in save opportunities in 2004, entered the weekend with one save in two opportunities this year. Two save chances in a month isn't enough to warrant a relatively steady closer such as Baez.

He is the Rays' second-highest- paid player ($3.75 million), but would be a great bargain for bullpen-thin teams such as the Giants, Cubs, Rangers, Braves and (in the wake of Jason Isringhausen's injury) the Cardinals.

Deals aren't normally made this early in the season, as teams try to settle problems by tinkering within the organization. And the Tigers, with established closers Troy Percival and Ugueth Urbina, might have a greater sense of urgency to move a reliever and, theoretically, would ask for less than the Rays.

But Tampa Bay GM Chuck LaMar, who made baseball's best trade-deadline deal last year in acquiring Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano, ought to be listening now if anyone calls about Baez. By July, it might already be too late.

The Rangers are apparently interested:

Reports say the Rangers would like to acquire D-Rays closer Danys Baez, who would become a setup guy for Francisco Cordero.

Comments

I've said it before

I'm still not sure whether Colome is mature enough as a young man right now, but with that arm this kid could be hUUUge!

by From the beach on May 2, 2005 6:38 PM EDT reply actions

Baez

TBO gets it partly right. Baez's trade value will probably never be higher, but the reason it won't be is because he probably won't be as "successful" as a closer this season. His save conversion percentage was too high for a guy with a 3.50 ERA, it was a combination of luck and having on average the least difficult save opportunities of anyone in the majors with 20 saves or more. That's why I was rooting for a trade in the offseason when it's much easier to find partners even though the closer problems throughout baseball weren't as evident then. Hard to get a deal done in May, who out there needs Baez and has a third or first baseman that would fit the Rays needs and limitations? A starting pitcher is completely out of the picture I'm sure and if Baez is traded now it won't be for prospects for the future.

If Baez goes Colome will take over. Jesus will save us all, and some games.

by Jim Wisinski on May 2, 2005 6:47 PM EDT reply actions

doesn't matter

Right now, I don't think it matters who takes over as closer. You have to be winning games for a closer to matter. Trade Baez ASAP, because his value can only drop from here onwards. For the reason Jim listed above: Baez was "lucky" last year. Trade him ASAP to the most desperate team you can find ...

Raystalk at MVN

by Sam on May 2, 2005 8:33 PM EDT reply actions

Closers on Losers

Right now, I don't think it matters who takes over as closer. You have to be winning games for a closer to matter.

I'm not sure this is entirely true. For example, Danny Kolb saved 39 games last year for the Brewers while they went an abysmal 67-94. Even Baez himself saved 30 games for a not-much-better Tampa club.

Obviously, if your team is in really poor shape, a fan probably doesn't really care if there's a successful closer. But on the flipside, Billy Beane has done very well by pumping up closers' stats and then "selling" them on the market at an inflated value - exactly what the Rays are trying to do with Baez here.

And there's always fantasy baseball. :)

by DavidNYC on May 2, 2005 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions

hold it

"But on the flipside, Billy Beane has done very well by pumping up closers' stats and then 'selling' them on the market at an inflated value - exactly what the Rays are trying to do with Baez here."

Sort of. Except that Beane has alway known what he was doing, and Loser LaMar still doesn't. Beane uses this buy-low-sell-high tactic as a way to get ahead; LaMar will do it as a byproduct of circumstances, and only because it's necessary.

That is, if LaMar were willing to pay the money it will take to re-up Baez, I bet he would. Beane wouldn't do it, just on principle. But I think LaMar would.

And the point is this: Baez isn't worth it. He's been lucky, but he's an average reliever. Fastball or not, he's average. Beane would recognize this. Would LaMar? I doubt it.

Wait ... did you just implicitly compare Beane & LaMar? No, can't be -- I must be missing something. Nemmind.

Raystalk at MVN

by Sam on May 4, 2005 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Baez

Alot of closers started as relievers. Jose Mesa among others... It does not hurt we have Colome and Orvella witing in wings.

On fantasy baseball a few weeks ago I traded Benetiz for Kearns and Kris Benson. This was prior to injury where he just was not getting save opps. Now, the trade is looking even better.

by David Bloom on May 2, 2005 9:36 PM EDT reply actions

Colome

In the short run Colome will be the closer if Baez is traded. I love his stuff, I just don't know if he can be consistent enough to be a great closer.

The team also seem to have plans to make Mclung there future closer. I don't like that plan, I think he would be better served in the starting rotation if he can ever get his act together and throw strikes. But that is the only explanation for leaving him in the bulpen.

Orvella is also dominating the minors right now. I wouldn't be suprised to see him up by summer if he keeps it up. We have a lot of options in the bulpen.

But who knows what the Ray's will do. I'm not sure if they know.

by Tyler on May 4, 2005 12:50 PM EDT reply actions