Jake's Take: Welcome Back, Friedman

by Jacob Larsen on Oct 28, 2006 12:41 AM EDT

"The names have all changed, since you've come around..."
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With Juan Epste, er David Eckstein being named the MVP of the World Series, it pretty much starts the clock on "Offseason 2007". Lessons were learned this season, good and bad ones. The Rays took chances on Free Agent hitters/pitchers and did pretty well on some of our smaller gambles(Wiggy's "breakout", Branyan being a tradeable product, Meadows' Jerkyll & Hyde trick, Norton doing his best Tupac Impression, etc.) Our biggest problem that we dealt with in 2006 was our insane amount of injuries to our best players and the non-cohesiveness of our pitching staff, especially it's assortment of older "horsesh*t" (Harville, Harper, Meadows and at times Miceli) bullpen pitchers.

What does a team, that's losing money, do to make a "rebuilding" phase team into a team that is a few parts away from becoming a "contending team"?

Use our farm system to fill most of the holes that we're going to have after we release/non-tender/demote players. Use Ridgway as our LOOGY, make sure Niemann is healthy and hand him a rotation spot, convert one of our young starters(Hammel, Howell, Stokes) into a long-reliever to replace Harper and allow some of our top prospects to contend for starting jobs in the infield and rotation. Outside of our OF and Catching spot(Navarro and Riggans), no job should be locked.
Listen to all trades that don't involve Crawford, Rocco, Delmon, Niemann, Brignac and Kazmir. All others, especially ones with problems, should be shopped around as actively as possible.
If we make any signings, make sure that the player isn't on their last legs of their careers and have some stuff(not pies) left in the tank.
Have Ned Colletti on speed-dial, now that top exec Terry Collins is no longer in the front office. I enjoy this friendship that we've got with the Dodgers, but do we know for sure that "the well is dry". I'd love if we got Dodger Draft Guru Logan White, in a trade, myself.
Place some bids on Japanese Free Agents/Posted players, even if we don't get them.
See if there's a 3rd Lugo Brother or cousin that plays baseball. We've got decent luck with players of that last name.
Find a stern manager for Durham. We have no need for a patient to run the asylum again... We may not have our hot tempered prospects there anymore, but Tamargo was an embarassment.
Keep up-to-date on all our prospects' doings, during the offseason and during the season. If someone is dominating, move them up when they deserve it.
Do extensive college scouting, so that we get the best players available and not so many "signability" picks in the upcoming Rule V(Amateur) Draft.
Be creative, keep Rays fans thinking

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Comments

I disagree with

number 2 whole-heartedly. No one is untouchable. Kazmir is by far the most untouchable of our players because I doubt we could get anywhere close to equal value for him.

However, with that said, all trade offers for anyone else should be listened too. CC has a lot of trade value, and while I don't think we should be actively shopping him, if someone is willing to put together a package big enough, then you've got to do it.

Rocco is injury prone. People can argue that these are freak injuries, but he still keeps getting hurt. In high school he broke his leg pretty badly, then, over the course of 20 months he tore his ACL, UCL, and Hamstring. He also had a quad injury that hampered him all year during 04'. At some point, freak injuries become a pattern, and while I think there is the potential there to be a star, he's got to prove himself over a full season. If someone wants to give us a young #2 starter, I'd be willing to part with Rocco.

I also assume when you're talking about "the ones with problems" you're mainly talking about Dukes and Upton. To that I say it would be very stupid IMO to trade either of those guys. Dukes can flat out play. Will he get on the field? I don't know, but if he does, he'll be worth far more to us than he would be in a trade. And at this point, he's so volatile; that I doubt any team would be willing to give us something of value in return for him. GM's are generally risk adverse when it comes to trading talent. I believe that he's far more valuable to us than he is to anyone else.

Upton is probably the most toolsy player in our organization. He's got incredible bat speed, incredible foot speed, maybe the best arm on the team, and his potential is through the roof. Not to mention he's one of the few players on this team with plate discipline. Sure he struggled last year, but he's going to be special. Trading him when his value is at the lowest it's been since he was drafted would be stupid. I saw improvements in him toward the end of the season, and I fully expect him to come back and play well next year. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if he's one of the best, if not the best hitter on the team. He trains with David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman and his brother during the off-season, and I expect him to pick their brains and make the adjustments necessary.

As for players with "problems," how about Delmon? The guy saw the fewest pitches per at bat in the majors last year. Fewer than even Frenchy. He's special, and I believe he's going to be a better player than Francoeur, but that doesn't mean he's going to be great now. He was a streaky hitter all year, and really struggled hitting with two strikes during his time in the majors. It wouldn't surprise me at all if pitchers began to figure him out and his seasonal line ended up being around: .280/.300/.420. While he could also put up a line far better line, don't be surprised if he doesn't struggle until he figures out how to take a few pitches. One good month in the majors doesn't make him a great player or mean that he'll be successful next year. For reference, in Francoeur's first 127 at bats, his line was .370/.389/.717/1.106. In his first 127 at bats, his IsoD is .19, in Delmon's first 126 ab's, his IsoD is .19. There are a lot of similarities between the two and that's not necessarily a good thing.

Now, Delmon has been and will continue to be far more highly regarded in the scouting community. His numbers have also been better at every level than Jeff, and I'm not saying his career is going to mirror Francoeur's in any way, but what I am saying, is that he's got a lot of issues with plate discipline, and if you're swinging at everything that enters the strike-zone like Delmon often does, he's going to struggle next year, and beyond, until he figures out how to be more selective within the strike-zone.

by Tyler on Oct 28, 2006 4:33 PM EDT reply actions

Proven Vs. Unproven

In your long, almost story-length tirade, you basically stated that we should trade some of our more proven commodities for various reasons(high value, history of injuries, etc.) and should keep our more unproven players who have big problems standing in their way(attitude problems and defensive inefficiencies). Though you do bring up some decent reasons why you're right, I have one question for you.

Have you lost your damn mind?

While Rocco's injuries, fluke or not, have hindered him, he still has shown great improvement in hitting. If you remember, this guy had to sit out a whole year and he improved both his contact and power hitting. Now 2007 is an important year for Rocco, seeing as we got him at his cheapest in our long-term contract with him. If he shows improvement in his plate discipline, which he did in a small sample early on in 2006, he's worth keeping. He, unlike Upton and Dukes, has proven that he can field at a high level at CF. He, unlike Upton and Dukes, has proved that he can hit major league pitching. Upton has even been converted to the OF, like every assumes he will because they're so impatient with the "Third Base Hypothesis". Dukes is a corner OF, not a CF and Crawford doesn't appear to be a great CF like every team that appears in rumors involving thinks that he can.

As for Delmon Young's Uber-Hacktasticness(Is that a word?), I bring up Vlad Guerrero. While Vlad does occasionally walk, he also swings at every pitch because he believes and has proven that every pitch(shin-level to forehead-level) can be hit over the wall. However, most people bring up the Francouer similarity. Delmon, when he wasn't being a crybaby in AAA, has shown that he can and will take pitches when needed. In Low A Charleston, he had 53 BBs to 120 Ks. In a half-season at AA Montgomery, he walked 28 times to 66 strikeouts. You remember the Delmon in AA, who won the Southern League MVP without even playing a game in the 2nd half and probably would've gotten the Triple Crown as well had he played the entire season there. He would've had the batting title there, if he had 10 more ABs.

My theory about Delmon is that he swung at everything at AAA and in his call-up to show that he could hit at higher levels and he deserved his top prospect status as a future HOF-quality power hitter. I believe that in 2007, when he finally gets to play an entire season in the majors, we will start seeing the greatness that is Delmon Young and how this annoying "Frenchy" comparison is disgustingly flawed.

by Jacob Larsen on Oct 28, 2006 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Kazmir'n Devil Ray

If you have hot commodities you have to listen, especially I don't know of Scott's health level. If healthy we need to start talkin contract. Wonder if he would sign with team voted as worst pro baseball franchise.

DRAYS BAY

by David Bloom on Oct 28, 2006 9:39 PM EDT reply actions

Living under a rock?

Kazmir could've and should've pitched at the end of the season, but the team chose to end his season and prevent unnecessary strain on his arm. You remember that Minnesota allowed Liriano to return and what happened to him? His condition worsened and he may have to sit out for the entire 2007 season. Kazmir has never said anything negative about the franchise and we've been in discussions with his agent about a long-term deal. However, we don't actually have to try and lock him up until after this year because he's still Pre-Arb.

Next, I highly doubt this is the Worst Pro Baseball Franchise. KC and Florida have crappy ownership and teams like the Mets and Dodgers are being led into the slaughterhouse by their idiot GMs. I respect what Minaya did in leading the Mets to the NLCS by loading the team up with vets, but at what cost? He's got 3 good prospects(Mike Pelfrey, Lastings Milledge and Fernando Martinez) left and that may change this offseason, if he continues to try to load his team up again.

by Jacob Larsen on Oct 28, 2006 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions

a few things

I agree with Jake that we need to have a list of Organizational Untouchables.
I agree with Tyler that Rocco shouldn't be on that list.
I think that, right now, Evan Longoria needs to be placed on that list.
I agree that Kazmir could have, and disagree that Kazmir should have, pitched again at the end of this season. The Liriano situation confirmed it for me. You don't screw around with young guys who are this good.

Raystalk at MVN

by Sam @ DRaysBay on Oct 29, 2006 11:51 AM EST reply actions

Bingo

I kinda look over my reply to Tyler and I wish I didn't say "should've", especially when I ended up mentioning the entire Liriano debacle.

Well, if you're adding Longoria...why not add Brignac?

by Jacob Larsen on Oct 29, 2006 12:21 PM EST up reply actions

Because

you already have Brignac on the list, that's why.

Raystalk at MVN

by Sam @ DRaysBay on Oct 29, 2006 7:12 PM EST reply actions

See?

This was the original list you gave, Jake: Crawford, Rocco, Delmon, Niemann, Brignac and Kazmir.

Tyler subtracted Rocco, and I agree with him.

I added Longoria. The list is now: CC, Delmon, Niemann, Brignac, Kazmir, and Longoria.

Raystalk at MVN

by Sam @ DRaysBay on Oct 29, 2006 7:14 PM EST reply actions

My bad

I guess thats what I get for reading half-asleep.

by Jacob Larsen on Oct 29, 2006 7:38 PM EST up reply actions

Yankees would love

Dukes/Gomes or even Cantu for Carl Pavano ;) we would even pay most of his contract!! :P

or how about Gary Sheffield, he should be a great older brotha for Delmon/Duke/Upton and gang. and we can just rename the team to the Tampa Bay Gansta :P

by RollingWave on Oct 30, 2006 12:14 AM EST reply actions

Ummm...

How about no....

Carl Pavano was a good pitcher, before he became a Yankee. He was mediocre his entire career until that "breakout" contract year of his.

As for Sheffield, No....

The Tampa Bay Gangsta? Ok, seeing that non-plural team names are now the "in" thing.

by Jacob Larsen on Oct 30, 2006 1:23 AM EST up reply actions

But then...

...wouldn't the name have to be shortened further, to something like "T-BaY gANGsta?" or something?

by Not That Chuck on Oct 30, 2006 10:11 AM EST up reply actions

I'm not opposed

to a list of "untouchables", but at root I'm also a "never say never" type; if someone wants to overpay ridiculously for Rocco or Delmon or even Kaz, I believe you gotta listen. That's not real likely to happen, so it shouldn't be an issue, but a team in this spot should never be so confined to one particular strategy that it won't allow another team to make an utter fool of itself for our benefit. Just don't give up all flexibility.

by Not That Chuck on Oct 30, 2006 10:18 AM EST reply actions

Idiot GM's

LA and the Mets did make the playoffs. That is the object right?

Additionally, the Mets have two 23 year olds who are among the best at there position and Carlos Beltran locked up for the next 5 years,as well as Martinez, Pelphrey, Humber, and Milledge in the minors. I would not say Minaya is leading his team to the slaughterhouse.

by TomT on Oct 30, 2006 1:11 PM EST reply actions

At what expense?

Minaya, in the past with the Expos and even now with the Mets, has shown that he'll risk his farm system and trade them for veterans who are in their downsides of their careers. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't they trade a handful of prospects for 2 veterans(Lo Duca and Delgago) who are both undergoing offseason surgeries?

The Mets system has some nice prospects, but what's stopping Minaya from trading them? If the Marlins offered Willis to the Mets for Milledge and a Humber/Pelfrey-type, can you honestly say with a straightface that Minaya wouldn't take that deal? Hate to say it, but Martinez is the only untradeable prospect in the Mets system...just because MLB rules prohibit teams from trading people before a 1 year grace period from signing the contract occurs.

Minaya is a great GM, but if he doesn't land a World Series sometime soon...the GM that inherits the team will have a team full of aging vets and very little prospects.

Pedro is hurt, Glavine has very little left in the tank and the rest of the rotation is full of youngsters and retreads.

And I wouldn't call Philip Humber a great pitching prospect, if I recall he was the worst of "The Rice Trio". He was just picked before Townsend, due to the questions surrounding Wade's signability. Not so much in regards to talent.

Colletti, on the other hand, is an interesting case. Ned doesn't really get much criticism in his trades, mainly due to the fact that LA has a very replenishable farm system and trading a few prospects for MLB-proven vets can be the spark in leading a team to a playoff spot. However, many Dodger fans that I've spoken to have questioned how players like Hall, Lugo, Hendrickson and Betemit were worth so much more than the players that they traded for them.

by Jacob Larsen on Oct 30, 2006 2:24 PM EST up reply actions

To play devils advocate

with the Expos, contraction was a very real thing. He wasn't sure there was going to be a future, and so he was making deals to win then.

As for trading for LoDuca and Delgado, I'd say it was worth it. Chances are pretty slim that any of the prospects he gave up will be as good as Delgado or LoDuca. He didn't trade any high ceiling guys. Jacobs was playing over his head and he sold high on him, and Petit's ceiling is just a little higher than Sonnanstine. And they gave up Gaby Hernandez is a nice prospect, but nothing particularly great, and is a long way away. I don't think he gave up very much in comparison to what he got. Especially for a large market team, and he filled signifigant voids through those trades.

by Tyler on Oct 30, 2006 3:32 PM EST up reply actions

That's where things get dicey....

Is trading 6+ years of those prospects really worth 2-3 years, at most, of Delgado and Lo Duca who are 30+?

by Jacob Larsen on Oct 30, 2006 3:34 PM EST up reply actions

I think so

because I don't think anyone of those guys will give you near the production Delgado and Lo Duca give you. Hernandez won't be in the big leagues 3 years from now most likely, Petit will be at best a back of the rotation starter, and Jacobs wouldn't play in NY at all, they'd have to go get a real bat at first. I'd say, especially for a large market team, where money isn't really that important, it makes all the sense.

Don't forget, the Mets are launching their version of the YES network, so they'll have plenty of revenue to pay these salaries.

by Tyler on Oct 30, 2006 3:41 PM EST up reply actions

So,,,

What if Delgado or Lo Duca don't recover as quickly as expected from their offseason surgeries(Delgado has 2) and don't play to their potential ever again? Will they have to purge their system to find another 1B or Catcher?

by Jacob Larsen on Oct 30, 2006 3:50 PM EST up reply actions

I'm not calling Minaya an idiot

I'm just pointing out that he's had a long track record of really gutting Farm Systems as a GM.

by Jacob Larsen on Oct 30, 2006 2:26 PM EST reply actions

I say you hold Rocco

even if they plan on trading him, hold him and let him even gain more value until next ASB. I don't think we will deal him or CC, but it makes no sense to deal him right this second.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 30, 2006 7:04 PM EST reply actions

To trade Rocco

We'd need a MLB-ready CF or CF prospect in the wings ready to take over for Rocco.

Upton has yet to play a game in CF and yet has shown the willingness to make another move to a different position.

Perez is hitting around .280ish against AFL pitching, which basically means that he's only at the AA level as a prospect hitting-wise.

Matulia needs to gain the glimmer that he once had in his debut season back.

Desmond Jennings is a long way's away.

by Jacob Larsen on Oct 30, 2006 7:50 PM EST up reply actions

Delgado/ Lo duca

They were risky trades but as of now you have to give Minaya credit. He was able to take advantage of the Marlins firesale and got both players (particularly Delgado) for less than market value.

As far as Colletti goes, he did seem to give up quite a bit in his trades with the Rays. It concerns me though that the players recieved generally have not performed well. Pedrosia and Seo played at expectations but Jackson and Guzman(albeit in VERY LIMITED playing time) played very poorly. Tiffany was hurt and I would consider Navvaro a mnor disappointment.

by TomT on Oct 30, 2006 7:35 PM EST reply actions

Dodgerays

Well, I wouldn't go that far on any of the players that we've acquired from the Dodgers because a majority of them still have long careers ahead of them and Lugo has declared for Free Agency.

Jackson needs to be given a set position, more-or-less stop jerking him around. I find it interesting that he's yet to give up an earned run in the DWL, AS A STARTER.

Guzman needs to be placed at one position and stay there, thats why we're seeing him underperform.

Pedroza has been better than I expected, showing that he can take pitches and hit for power. Now if he can convert to being a catcher again, that'd be great.

Navarro really has done nothing to be considered a disappointment, seeing as he's 22 and an upgrade in many ways(except for power-hitting) than Hall.

Seo-for-Lurch are pretty much interchangable, the Rays never really have given either of them run support.

by Jacob Larsen on Oct 30, 2006 7:45 PM EST up reply actions

Navarro

Okay I am probably being a little hard on him considering his youth and potential but he did post a very Toby-like .678 OPS.

by TomT on Oct 30, 2006 8:42 PM EST reply actions

Granting

Tom's point that Navarro has been a minor disappointment so far, I still think you have to take into consideration whom he's replacing. Navarro finished the season with a (combined) .686 OPS. Hall finished the season with a combined .692 OPS. Navarro is 8 years younger and cheaper too. Disappointment or not, he's every bit as good as what we had. Then you factor in the age and cost, and I think you have to admit we come out ahead on that deal. And Navarro can develop: he has upside. Right now he's every bit as good as Hall, but he could still become something better. Hall certainly wasn't going to improve any more.

Jackson, Jake? C'mon ...

Raystalk at MVN

by Sam @ DRaysBay on Oct 30, 2006 9:01 PM EST reply actions