Jake's Take: A Feel-Good Story

by Jacob Larsen on Dec 25, 2006 5:38 AM EST

"Playoffs?"- Jim Mora
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First of all, I'd like to pass along the merriest of Christmas wishes to everyone. Christmas comes but once a year and should be spent with friends and family, so we're fortunate if you take time out of such a busy day to visit our little site.

So, why did I use a Jim Mora quote?

Right now, many Rays fans are questioning the ideas of the front office. The main problem is that we've got so much lee-way with expendable players, but it seems that the Rays Front Office seems more content with keeping the surplus of players than trading them for players that would be more useful to our team than a 3rd First Baseman, a 2nd Shortstop, 5th Outfielder or 4th DH would.

Again, why did I use a Jim Mora quote?

Did anyone really expect the New Orleans Saints, whose past mirrors that of ours' and it's name being synonymous with "losing", to be running away with the NFC South Division and on the inside-track to a 1st Round bye? This is the same New Orleans team that was the 2nd worst team in the NFL last year and took it's chances with a new coach, a quarterback coming off of shoulder surgery and a running back known more for his big plays than his ball-carrying skills. This is the same New Orleans team that had "Home-away-from-Home" Games last year and many of it's players had their houses flooded by the deluge brought forth by Hurricane Katrina.

Faith. Confidence. Perseverance.

Sean Payton, Drew Brees and Reggie Bush bought into 1, 2 or all 3 of these when they decided to sign on with New Orleans. Drew Brees could've chosen otherwise, after Sean Payton and him got lost traveling around New Orleans, but he had enough confidence that there was something "special" about the philosophy of the New Orleans Organization and coaching staff to sign on with a team coming off an abysmal season. Not a peep was heard from Brees when Donte Stallworth, who had been New Orleans top WR in terms of both ability and performance, was traded and left him with Joe Horn and a trio of WRs that many haven't heard of (an undrafted Devery Henderson, Dallas Cowboys throw-away Terrance Copper and "The Pride of Hofstra" Marquis Colston)

Many Rays fans groan about another 100+ game losing season, but think about what Saints fans were put through in 2005. A 3-13 season, where they finished 2nd to last in points scored and gave up the 4th most amount of points and playing in 3 different "home" venues(New York, Baton Rouge and San Antonio). We complain about playing 3 games out of Tropicana Field, by choice, but we're lucky that we've never had to use Tropicana as a relief center at the scale that the Superdome was used. Hometown fans weren't using their paperbags for masks, but to carry supplies needed to sustain themselves.

Football may not be the same as baseball, obviously, but New Orleans fits the Rays' mold more than the Houston Texans do. Wealth of talent, but all the pieces haven't been placed together to finish the "big picture".

I'm not predicting a Saints-like turnaround for 2007, but I'm also not counting one out.

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Comments

MERRY CHRISTMAS!

by thebaddancingraysfan on Dec 25, 2006 9:19 AM EST reply actions

I am counting that out

I hate to be the Christmas Scrooge, but the parallels are very, very slim. First of all, the Saints play in the NFC South, where the second place team could finish the season below .500. Secondly, the NFL has a completely different economic structure than does MLB. The salary cap constrains New Orleans' competition from developing a payroll ten times that of their own, a situation we have been faced with before.

Further, the NFL playoffs are much larger, by comparison, with the fourth division and a second wild card thrown in. It is comparatively easy to make the playoffs in the NFL, not at the point at which the NBA and NHL are at, but it is much easier to waltz into the playoffs in the NFL.

Actually, I believe the Texans offer a far better comparison, it terms of background. Relatively new expansion team that hasn't been able to get off the ground, making very poor personnel decisions.

The Saints as a stand alone story are nice, but they offer relatively little comparison to the Rays. Comparing teams across two sports is very hard, it's like apples and oranges.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Dec 25, 2006 12:05 PM EST reply actions

I dunno

New Orleans seemed more fitting, seeing as the Texans don't have talent outside of Andre Johnson and Ryan. New Orleans has had the revolving door of coaches and long-time association with losing, while the Texans just lose because they've got no QB, RB, Offensive Line and Defensive Backs.

by Jacob Larsen on Dec 25, 2006 5:51 PM EST up reply actions

New Orleans v. Houston

New Orleans has a 40 year history of losing. We're pitiful, but not quite that bad. A nine year history of losing is more easily comparable to Houston's five year history of losing. And New Orleans, Houston, and the Rays have all had a dire lack of talent as well.

The thing is, New Orleans upgraded their personnel immensely through free agency and the draft, their roster changed hands almost completely between 2005 and 2006, ours has not.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Dec 25, 2006 7:43 PM EST up reply actions

All-Time Win %ages

New Orleans Saints Win %age All-Time: .402
Tampa Bay Devil Rays Win %age All-Time: .398
Houston Texans Win %age All-Time: .281

by Jacob Larsen on Dec 25, 2006 6:38 PM EST reply actions

Sample Size Alert

Sixteen game seasons leave much greater potential for abnormally high or low winning percentages. I again point you back to longevity. The Saints have been in existance for 40 years, the Rays nine, and the Texans five.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Dec 25, 2006 7:45 PM EST up reply actions

Can't win with you, can I?

I realize football and baseball are as different as Pizza Hut and McDonald's, but my point is that New Orleans didn't do much more than upgrade at QB and they went from a 3-13 team to a 10-5(possibly 11-5) team. You can't say that Colston will be a better pro than Donte Stallworth right now and you can't say that adding Devery Henderson and Terrance Copper is really improving their WR corps.

I, in reality, was pointing out that New Orleans serves as the most comparable NFL team to the Rays. While Houston also has it's comparables with us, I'm saying that the fan base of the Rays & Saints and the potential of the talent of the Rays & Saints make us more similar.

by Jacob Larsen on Dec 25, 2006 8:09 PM EST up reply actions

Not to nit-pick

However, "small sample size" is a horrible cop-out being overused on Message Boards and Blogs. Only because there's no guidelines on what "small" truly is.

by Jacob Larsen on Dec 25, 2006 8:13 PM EST up reply actions

162 games vs. 16

That isn't a cop-out, that is fact. I call comparing sample sizes with one sample ten times the size of the other being a pretty damn good guideline on what a bad comparison is.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Dec 25, 2006 8:17 PM EST up reply actions

However

With 40 years of 14/16-game seasons going against 9 years of 162 game seasons, it's not as horrible of a "sample size" disparity.

by Jacob Larsen on Dec 25, 2006 8:31 PM EST up reply actions

Let's Do the Math

40x16 (a bit high because of the 14 game schedules early, but still, I'll give 'em the benefit of the doubt) equals 640. 162x9=1,458, actually 1,456 if you take away the two games cancelled over the years due to hurricanes. That is still double the Saints' total. The Saints have been around longer, and although they are not a beacon for NFL success, they have made the playoffs several times, and even finished 13-3 one year under Jim "PLAYOFFS!" Mora. They still have a longer track record of success than we.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Dec 25, 2006 8:54 PM EST up reply actions

No you can't :D

You underestimate that QB change though. New Orleans went from an absolutely horrible QB in Aaron Brooks to a league MVP in Drew Brees. That is one helluva difference. Further, they upgraded with Reggie Bush at RB, they brought back a healthy Deuce McAllister, Marquis Colston stepped it up, and the defense came back healthy as well. New Orleans is a far different team in that regard, without question.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Dec 25, 2006 8:15 PM EST up reply actions

Correct me if I'm wrong

But the 3 out of 4 years of the "Jim Haslett Era", Brooks and the Saints finished with a .500 or better record(2 8-8 seasons and a 9-7 season) with a division title in 2000. Brooks wasn't exactly a horrible QB, seeing as he's put better statistical seasons as a QB than his cousin. However, again we can use "sample sizes" for that argument as well.

by Jacob Larsen on Dec 25, 2006 8:28 PM EST up reply actions

Can't call Brees a true-MVP candidate

with LT playing, or even Manning.

Brees has 28 TDs to go with the 4500 or so yards. Manning continually has 4000+ yd. seasons with 30 or more TDs.

by Jacob Larsen on Dec 25, 2006 8:33 PM EST up reply actions

I was talking about NFC MVP.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Dec 25, 2006 8:55 PM EST up reply actions

Not at all

We don't have to use sample sizes at all, we only have to use relevant facts, and that would be his stats from 2005 and Brees' from this year, thus representing the true statistical improvement being debated from this year to last.

Brooks 2005=240/431, 55.7%, 2882 yds, 13 TD, 17 INT
Brees 2006=323/500, 64.6%, 3576 yds, 24 TD, 15 INT

I believe the improvement speaks for itself.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Dec 25, 2006 9:00 PM EST up reply actions

New Orleans

FYI, the NFL granted the Saints a 15% bonus on the salary cap this year that declines over the next couple of seasons. They did this because the feared no free-agents would want to come to New Orleans (for obvious reasons). That alone is a huge advantage in the NFL.

by SeanDubbs on Dec 26, 2006 1:17 AM EST reply actions

Hmm

I'd say I follow the economics of the sport very closely, and I didn't see that. Very interesting, and certainly makes a lot of sense.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Dec 26, 2006 1:20 AM EST up reply actions

Wow really?

That salary cap break is news to me, and I took a sports econ course this past semester!

Don't forget though that while Stallworth was the Saints' best WR last season, he definitely did not want to come back to NO for this season, which almost certainly looked like it would be an awful one for the Saints. The beauty of it is, they did receive a big boost from Mark Simoneau (whom they got back in that trade) and iirc they picked up a draft pick as well...hmm...

Toby Hall = Donte' Stallworth?

by das411 on Dec 27, 2006 2:19 AM EST reply actions