Who's Got Recessive Gene?

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 21, 2007 9:04 PM EST Comment 20 comments

It took 52 games last season before the Rays had a left-handed reliever make an appearance for the big league club, this year, it shouldn't take 52 innings for a lefty to trot out to the mound. Who that southpaw is remains the question.

Casey Fossum and Jon Switzer acted as left-handed relievers last year with neither being particularly good, and the odds of either of them appearing in a game next for the team are, well, let's call it "unlikely", with Fossum last seen chucking for the Portland Beavers and Switzer on the road again. The new cast of candidates to become the Rays LOOGY - John Sickels gets royalties every time that term is used - include a former Oriole, a farm hand that had an infinite ERA for most of his September promotion, and most interestingly a former second round draft pick who hasn't pitched above AA quite yet.

Kurt Birkins is 27, the oldest of the three candidates by two months. After being claimed off waivers last month he became the most likely candidate for the 2008 "Dohmann Award" - given to the least popular acquisition that actually works out - and for good reason; Baltimore seemingly mishandled Birkins' role last season giving him two starts where he combined for four innings and 10 earned runs.

That's not to say he was overly impressive as a reliever, an ERA in the 6.5 range, but in 2006 he was decent with a 4.94 ERA. The problem is that the majority of hitters he faced were right handed, in 2006 he opposed 61 lefties and 75 righties, in 2007 65 lefties and 105 righties. That's a difference of 54 more righties than lefties. Consider his career major league lines against the either hand:

RHB - .295/.380/.481 .336 BABIP
LHB - .282/.360/.382 .353 BABIP

Now let's look at his minor league splits from last season where he faced 123 lefties and 278 righties:

RHB - .302/.356/.406 .384 BABIP
LHB - .146/.254/.244 .174 BABIP

Clearly he's better suited to face the recessive gene type, and that's the same case for each member of the trio.

Ridgway is also 27, and in three appearances last year had a 189 ERA, that's an ERA+ of 2, meaning he was worse than 98% of pitchers, that's a good start, kind of. In his defense - pun not intended - the defense was pitiful. Looking at Ridgway's major league stats is pretty useless, so instead here's his 2007 Durham numbers where he faced 87 lefties, 144 righties.

RHB - .271/.367/.458 .323 BABIP
LHB - .172/.250/.241 .237 BABIP

He throws in the mid 90's but he's a bit wild, not that any of these guys are Andrew Sonnanstine or James Shields out there, but they aren't Scott Kazmir either when it comes to strikeouts.

Finally we approach the final candidate, although he may not be in any fashion outside of my mind. On Tuesday the Rays added James Houser Jr. to the 40-man roster, and with the compulsive OCD kicking in I riddle why we shouldn't at least give Houser a look in spring training at competing for a bullpen job. He still has some time to serve for the amphetamines suspension, but that month would be the ultimate audition for Birkins and Ridgway. Upon Houser's return he could make a handful of starts in Montgomery before shooting to Durham in a relief role and then being promoted to St. Petersburg.

There are many reasons why this may not work; he's never pitched above AA, of course the other two have, as did Switzer, and that really never helped them. As a purely situational reliever in a system with a ton of left handed starting pitching talent Houser's talents could be utilized best in this role. His repertoires of a 91-94 MPH fastball and average change / curve make him the most likely candidate to move into a smaller relief role.

Then there are his splits, which aren't nearly as concentrated as Birkins or Ridgway, but still help to tell the tale; 80 at-bats against lefties, 305 against righties.

RHB - .259/.334/.449 .313 BABIP
LHB - .125/.205/.225 .138 BABIP

For further comparison of three here are their strikeouts per nine and walks per nine numbers from last minor league season:

Birkins - 3.38 BB 8.70 K
Ridgway - 4.48 BB 9.70 K
Houser - 3.43 BB 7.92 K

Ron Mahay is likely to be overpaid by the Yankees and outside of Jeremy Affeldt there aren't many worthwhile lefties on the free agent market, staying in house usually works for situational relievers, perhaps more so than any position outside of pinch runner or defensive sub types.

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Re: Who's Got Recessive Gene?

I am a little mystified by the interest in Affeldt. I realize he is talented, but is his overall performance for the past 3 years or so clearly better or more promising than that of Ridgway or Birkins? Like them, his career is spotty both in the majors and minors, alternating between decent or slightly better seasons to pretty awful ones. (Ridgway's horrible major league record is just 3 appearances.) Why expect him to outperform either one in 2008? When I look at Affeldt I see a younger Ron Villone who will probably get a few years at more money than his performance warrants because he pitched effectively in 4.1 post-season innings and had a pretty good ERA in Colorado in 2007. He earned $11/4 million last year. What does that translate into going forward?

by bobr on Nov 21, 2007 9:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I wasn't advocating signing Affeldt

But rather putting him above the likes of Ron Villone and such.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 21, 2007 9:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A lefty

In my mind and especially with the left handed boppers in this division I still think is a necessity. Affeldt being a tall lefty or Linebrink would/could pitch the "high leverage" situations late in a game. I think its a necessary part of the game in order to get managers thinking about possible defensive substitutions or pinch hitters.

I just hope someone who is capable is in that mix and argument and there are no lefties when camp opens up. There has to be an option in there.

Joe

by joedobr on Nov 21, 2007 10:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I really don't like the concept of a 'LOOGY'

It just seems like a waste of a roster spot. I want a relief pitcher that can get both right-handed and left-handed batters out.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Nov 21, 2007 11:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: I really don't like the concept of a 'LOOGY'

Over time, look it up, its not an anomoly but statistical fact that LHP's get left handed hitters out more consistently than righties do. Call me quirky or old fashioned, but the look of a left handed pitcher and his release point adds an extra dimension for that left hitter to think about.

What about a righty with a heavy sinker or a cut fastball? Is there anyone in the organization that has that type of action that can break bats or induce ground ball outs consistently? Just throwing that out loud.

I am just saying there is nothing like having a lefty in the pen to pull out at the right time. I can't say enough about Okajima who did wonders this postseason who was some of what I am referring to.

Joe

by joedobr on Nov 21, 2007 11:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm sure you're right

Lefties do have an inherent strength when facing other lefties, but I don't want to be giving out roster spots based strictly on what hand someone throws with. I want a player who is useful for more than one at bat every other game. I'm not in favor of affirmative action when it comes to getting lefties on a baseball team.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Nov 21, 2007 11:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Who's Got Recessive Gene?

I like the idea of some left-right balance in the bullpen, but primary is that they are effective pitchers. What I do not want is to have a lefty simply because he throws with his left hand, and I do not see anyone worth spending a lot on. I do think the Rays have to accumulate arms and sort through them hoping to find useful pitchers, but to spend on the Affeldts or Romeros or Mahays or Millers seems to me foolish as they are all in demand and are no more likely to succeed than Birkins or Ridgway or others who can be acquired cheaply.

I just read that the Yankees might pursue Miller. Well, look at his record in TB in 2003, 2004 and then 2005. Like 2 different pitchers. Then in Houston in 2006 he looked good again only to decline precipitously in 2007 at age 34. I realize some elements of his performance remain consistent; he does strike people out, but look at the disparities in walks and home runs over the past 4 years.

I really do not think it is exactly about money so much as it is the commitment represented by the money. An Affeldt who gets $2 million (hypothetically) is harder to remove from the staff if he performs badly than is a Birkins at minimum. So it limits flexibility.

by bobr on Nov 21, 2007 11:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Who's Got Recessive Gene?

If the Rays could bring in Affeldt for one year or even 1 year and an option, I would be fine with that. In fact, goofy as it sounds, I wouldn't even mind if they could do something like that with Villone.

But mlb.com is reporting that the White Sox have signed Linebrink for $19 million for 4 years! Despite the criticisms of Linebrink, he is among the better and consistently effective free agent relievers this year, but 4 YEARS! What is Riske going to get?

Although neither Affeldt nor Romero nor Mahay is likely to get anything that big, as lefties they probably will command more than righties with similar careers, that is, more than the Rays should commit.

by bobr on Nov 22, 2007 8:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Who's Got Recessive Gene?

This is the market for relievers. Its insane. But "it is what it is".

The Rays have to realize this or else they will get nothing but the bag they are holding. You can forget about Riske and everything else. I am not going to drop heavy criticism at this time, but I will say that the Rays so far with their new ownership have heavily underestimated the open market. Yet I understand if they make that kind of "investment", they will ask themselves is the return really worth it?

Creativity is important for sure, but geez, these prices and salary requirements are going through the roof! But also that is the price of doing business in today's crazed baseball salary structure.

Joe

by joedobr on Nov 22, 2007 11:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Who's Got Recessive Gene?

What about JP for the loogy spot? He obviously is too good for AAA, but not quite good enough for our rotation. Maybe he'd be great in small doses?

by nittsallgood on Nov 22, 2007 10:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

If he's not dealt he's certainly an option

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 22, 2007 10:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: If he's not dealt he's certainly an option

Howell almost by necessity has to be that considering the way that it goes though. Unfortunately, I can't see it any other way at this time, but Howell is better suited as a long man than to come in and get a batter or two out. Terrible situation.

Joe

by joedobr on Nov 22, 2007 11:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: If he's not dealt he's certainly an option

How is it terrible situation?

He's a left-handed "control" pitcher that can strike out batters and get outs. He doesn't look like much of a starter and a "long man" is just another name for a starter without a rotation spot.

If he works well as a reliever, keep him there. However, calling it a "terrible situation" without actually trying it is nonsensical.

by Jacob Larsen on Nov 22, 2007 1:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nonsensical?

Let me explain why it isn't at the very least a favorable one. Besides Wheeler and perhaps Glover, who in the pen has favorable potential to nail down outs on a consistent basis over the long term? Salas still has a lot to prove and Reyes is at this point probably going to have a let down. If Reyes has a half-way decent year, he would surely be dealt at the deadline for other needs.

By necessity, Howell HAS to be considered for late inning duty. He isn't going to have a rotation spot, certainly for the long term. He will have to adjust himself to a late inning role and he doesn't throw hard. He will have to rely on guile and most of all, he can't walk anyone. Late inning roles are indeed a control situation, and Howell, by golly can't be walking people. And I am sure that will be taken out of the equation as walks aren't in his forte.

Balfour is still unknown so I put him there with Salas to a degree. Its terrible in my mind as no one in the pen has yet to emerge as the force that this team can undeniably rely on not just for the short term but for the forseeable future. Reyes is nothing but a placeholder and whatever he will do for the Rays is graavy.

Can it work, yes it can, but I don't think its an above average pen. Is it a better spot than what the club looked like in June? Sure, but its still no better than middle of the road at best.

Joe

by joedobr on Nov 22, 2007 2:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: If he's not dealt he's certainly an option

Why does JP profile better as a long relief man?

by ttnorm on Nov 22, 2007 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He becomes overexposed

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 22, 2007 4:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: He becomes overexposed

My thinking as well

by ttnorm on Nov 22, 2007 6:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Who's Got Recessive Gene?

As I said in another post, Dukes needs to be traded to the Giants for Sanchez. Not only does Sanchez dominate against lefties (.197 BA in rookie season), but he has the best change up in the Giants system, so he should be effective against RHP too.

by BossmanJunior333 on Nov 22, 2007 12:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Who's Got Recessive Gene?

The question is, why would San Fran give up Sanchez for Dukes? I know Sabean has bouts of stupidity, but I don't think he'd give up Sanchez that easily.

by Jacob Larsen on Nov 22, 2007 1:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Who's Got Recessive Gene?

I was going to post this at The Heater, but saw that DRays Bay decided to abandon the site when his user ID was also hijacked. That reconfirmed to me that having absented myself from that site I should not return, so I will post it here instead. What I find interesting is that it is a post at a Yankee blog and affirms opinions similar to those I have expressed here about paying big bucks for relievers. The notion that NY fans simply want to spend more money is not true; there are intelligent fans who recognize there are better ways to build a winner.
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"Hot on the heels of of the White Sox's signing of Scott Linebrink for four years and $19 million comes the obvious story: The new market for relievers -- set by the Yankees and Mariano Rivera -- will impact the Yanks' bullpen plans. The real (terrible) news however is that the Yanks are interested in Ron Mahay, David Riske and Trever Miller. Considering that these mediocre relievers, a speciality of the Yanks lately, are going to want multi-million-dollar, multi-year contracts, the Yanks are simply better off with their internal options. Maybe Riske is worth the risk, but Miller shouldn't even be under consideration. I hope Brian Cashman realizes that."
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In the comments on this post, just about every writer supported the view that the Yankees ought to build the bullpen from their farm system rather than sign expensive relievers. Naturally, that strategy depends on the quality of the arms in the system, and the Yankees may have more reliever prospects than that Rays do, although every one of them has similar question marks about control, toughness, health and so on.

by bobr on Nov 24, 2007 6:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs