Niemann

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 20, 2007 4:30 PM EST

A quick post here, just wondering what people expect from Jeff Niemann in 2008? I think we're at the point here where the former first round pick should be in the majors to begin the season - barring a spring meltdown - I know he can use some repetitions, but sending him to Durham could be a kiss of death to his prospects in the bigs this year, a bullpen spot could work.

Jeff Juden IP/S H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 WHIP 5.95 8.49 0.62 4.42 7.90 1.43

Jeff Niemann IP/S H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 WHIP 5.08 8.25 0.83 3.39 9.38 1.29

Andy Benes IP/S H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 WHIP 6.06 7.82 0.97 3.32 8.94 1.24

Although not necesarily in stuff, Benes and Juden both compare to Niemann in draft status and size - both overall meaningless, but Benes was a pretty valuable commodity as an innings eater and Juden was a large bust for numerous organizations including the Astros. Seemingly Niemann fits in the middle as far as minor league careers, but does that mean he'll fit somewhere in between the career ERAs - I know, I know, but we're comparing the more important stats, ERA is just that medium stat that is produced by those stats - of 3.97 and 4.81 as a starter? Should he move into the bullpen immediately?

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Re: Niemann

These things have a way of working themselves out. I am on the opinion that it will come down to Niemann or Howell for the #5 spot in the rotation. I think we will find a taker for Hammel or Jackson before spring time ends and Niemann will either gets Hammel's spot in long relief or Jack's spot in the rotation. Howell back to AAA or the loogy...

by nittsallgood on Dec 20, 2007 5:01 PM EST reply actions

Re: Niemann

I am not in favor of moving him to the bullpen yet, although I think he may end up there. I always think a team should be sure a pitcher cannot excel in the rotation before moving him to relief, and I don't think we can tell that about Niemann yet.

At this point I do not see that were he in the rotation he would be holding anyone back so he should fight it out for a spot in the spring and then either make it, stick as a swing man/long reliever or be sent to Durham for a while longer. I don't think any of those options would diminish his standing in the organization.

I also think that should he show well as a starter in the spring it would allow the Rays to deal Jackson/Howell/Hammel individually or in some combination for something else we need.

by bobr on Dec 20, 2007 6:20 PM EST reply actions

Re: Niemann

Generally I'd agree that you let Niemann work as a starter before taking a relief spot, but I'm not sure he can be more valuable as a starter than reliever - he has to go 6 innings routinely, the fact that he's closer to 5 IP than 6 IP scares me and suggests he has pitch count issues - I believe I've read he does.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 20, 2007 7:24 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Niemann

He was on very strict pitch counts for most of the year. That's the issue, they're trying to keep him healthy (which they managed to do for the most part!!! And that is amazing!). I like him in either role. Personally, I think he'll be one of the 5 best starting pitchers in the organization this season, so for me, he should be in the rotation. I've suggested #5, which gets skipped every so often that would limit his IP.

Kaz
Shields
Garza
Jackson/Sonnanstine (tools v. stats, battle to the death!! :))
Niemann

That's how I believe the rotation should look, but I guess time will tell. I see no room in the rotation for Hammel, Howell, Talbot.

I think the loser of the Stat v. Tools battle will end up in the pen rather than the other #5 starter.

by Tyler on Dec 20, 2007 11:11 PM EST up reply actions

I was with Jackson over Howell

But I think I'd go with Sonnanstine there - although either could be successful in relief roles.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 21, 2007 7:09 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Niemann

Man oh man, as someone who not only met Juden back in the day, but saw perhaps the greatest game he ever played on Aug 25 1995 at the old Vet (complete game and a grand slam, who else has seen a pitcher do THAT?), I....sure hope Niemann has a better career than JJ did. Coming out of the bullpen this early in his career might be just the way to do that...and a career like Andy Benes ended up having would certainly be fine!

by das411 on Dec 20, 2007 11:42 PM EST reply actions

Re: Niemann

Jeff Juden!!! What memories. I lived in Montreal when he pitched there in 1997. For a brief period he looked special, winning 11 games that year by early July, including 6 straight decisions and back to back 14 and 11 K outings.

by danshobiz on Dec 21, 2007 1:32 AM EST reply actions

Re: Niemann

Juden was cursed - born and raised in Salem, MA.

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by UCFKnights on Dec 21, 2007 8:21 AM EST reply actions

Re: Niemann

It didn't help his cause that Juden was perceived as being a headcase. He had run-ins with Pedro Martinez in Montreal and Jim Fergosi called him a fat lazy drunk. He had reputation for a temper and for being a headhunter, so even while he put together three good years he was constantly moving from team to team and from pen to starter.

Niemann, if healthy, will have a better career than Juden if only because he isn't his own worst enemy.

by RATW on Dec 21, 2007 10:02 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Niemann

Niemann HAS to start in the majors. He signed a major league contract, and thus is out of options.

by Brickhaus on Dec 21, 2007 2:24 PM EST reply actions

I had him down for one more option

But I think you're right on that actually.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 21, 2007 2:52 PM EST up reply actions

Re: I had him down for one more option

Not sure about that. He signed late, I'm not sure 04 counts as an option year. He might have 1 left.

by Tyler on Dec 21, 2007 5:25 PM EST up reply actions

I don't think it does

Niemann signed that contract in January of 2005, so I don't know why an additional option year would be added to his deal retroactively.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Dec 22, 2007 12:56 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Niemann

I like Niemann, quite a lot. I agree he starts on the MLB team, and hopefully in the rotation.

...where he'll get the crap knocked out of him for awhile, like Homer Bailey et al. But that's fine. As long as the expectations are long-term and the kid can keep his head on straight, he's a keeper. In the bullpen, with irregular work, he'll be less exciting and it'll be harder to measure his progress and development.

The Rays rotation in about 2010 is going to be scary-good.

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by scoutingbook on Dec 22, 2007 6:38 PM EST reply actions