Save a Cownose Ray, Take a Walk

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 30, 2007 3:01 PM EST

Cork Gaines over at RaysIndex posted his newest 12 Days of Raysmas "wish", and it goes a little something like this:

On the fifth day of Raysmas, the Tampa Bay Rays gave to us, FIVE players with at least 25 home runs...

That's quite a bit of homeruns for a team that was quite dependent on them last year - at least 23% of the total runs scored were from the longball, and that's just assuming all were solo shots.

Overall the Rays finished 3rd in the AL with 187 home runs, trailing only the Yankees and the White Sox, despite only two players with more than 20 home runs. However, if the Rays expect to compete in the AL East in 2008 and finally escape the cellar and make a run at the playoffs, they will need more consistent production from the middle of the lineup.

See, this is where I'll respectfully disagree with Cork, he himself admits the team finished third in the American League with their large amount of homeruns, but then goes on to say if we're going to make a playoff run we'll need more consistent production, that's astutely correct. However, winning has little to do with the amount of homeruns we hit, in fact the two teams ahead of us represent the perfect example that the correlation between homeruns and wins is lacking. Let's look at the top ten teams by homeruns:

Milwaukee 231
Philadelphia 213
Cincinnati 204
New York AL 201
Florida 201
Chicago AL 190
Tampa Bay 187
Texas 179
Cleveland 178
Detroit 177

Only the teams listed in bold reached the playoffs or were within five games of doing so, and only Milwaukee was in contention, with the Tigers sitting eight games out. Roughly four teams of the top 10 homerun hitting teams were in contention. Now let's take the top 10 teams in on-base percentage:

New York AL .366
Boston .362
Colorado .354
Philadelphia .354
LA Angels .345
Detroit .345
Cleveland .343
New York NL .342
Atlanta .339
Oakland .338

Eight of the top ten on-base percentage ranking teams made the playoffs, eight! The Rays sat at 14th overall with a .336 on-base percentage, not too bad. Kenny Williams and the Chicago White Sox ranked dead last in on-base percentage, despite being a top ten ream in long balls hit, did their offense suffer because of it? Of course, and here are the top ten teams in runs scored nearly mimic the on-base percentage list:

New York AL 968
Philadelphia 892
Detroit 887
Boston 867
Colorado 860
LA Angels 822
Texas 816
Cleveland 811
Atlanta 810
New York NL 804

The Rangers are the only team represented that didn't land on the top 10 in OBP but did land on the homeruns total. Again the Rays were middle of the pack at 15th with 782 runs scored, the White Sox were 28th with a measly 693 runs scored.

There are some positives of homeruns over say, walks, for instance you're guaranteed at least one run when you hit one, where as a walk doesn't guarantee anything besides a baserunner, you make the highlights more often - after all when was the last time a non-Barry Bonds player was shown on Sportscenter walking instead of hitting a homerun? And of course chicks love the long ball, so for those ballplayers who want groupies this is the way to go.

Unfortunately all hitters are prone to going into a slump, and those homeruns aren't homeruns in every single ballpark, fortunately for the majority of the top run scoring teams four balls is a walk no matter where you are - let's not confuse that with four similarly located pitches always being a ball, different strokes for different umps after all.

While I like Cork's idea of an improved offense, say more top ten-ish than middle of the pack-ish, I'd rather see five players with on-base percentages over .360. Last year only B.J. Upton and Carlos Pena complete the feat, Akinori Iwamura (.359) and Carl Crawford (.355) came close, the next highest players, Brendan Harris and Greg Norton, have both recently departed. From there you have to dig all the way down to Jonny Gomes .322 to reach a current Ray, and after that all the way down, past Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes, to Dioner Navarro at .286 for the next highest on-base percentage.

Simply the sixth highest Ray made an out more than 70% of the time. For comparisons sake the Yankees and White Sox's sixth highest on-base percentage was .356 (Giambi) and .317 (Dye), clearly that speaks well for the Yanks, and should make the guys at SouthSideSox cringe a bit, but they all ready know this.

So while I really don't have a wishlist - outside of changing the DRB logo to a picture of Andy Cannizaro or any other mediocre player, and getting a lefty from the Mariners, oh and of course Josh Paul's book showing up on my doorstep, I do hope the Rays give us five players with OBPs over .360 and therefore giving us a more consistent, productive, and slightly less entertaining offense.

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Re: Save a Cownose Ray, Take a Walk

Neither Atlanta nor the Mets made the playoffs.

by sattp on Dec 30, 2007 4:45 PM EST reply actions

No, however they were in contention

Within five games of doing so.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 30, 2007 4:46 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Save a Cownose Ray, Take a Walk

AL Hitters that posted a .400 OBP in 2007 (with HR totals)...

Ortiz .445 (35)
Ordonez .434 (28)
Posada .426 (20)
ARod .422 (54)
Pena .411 (46)
Thome .410 (35)
Cust .408 (26)
Vlad .403 (27)

7 of 8 hit 25 home runs. If a player hits more home runs, he will be pitched around more often. The more home runs a player hits, the more he will get on base, the higher the OBP. Ask yourself this: Would Carlos Pena have posted a .411 OBP if he hit only 15 home runs? No chance in H-E-DOUBLE HOCKEY STICKS.

by RaysIndex on Dec 30, 2007 5:41 PM EST reply actions

Re: Save a Cownose Ray, Take a Walk

That's a chicken or the egg argument.

by sattp on Dec 30, 2007 5:51 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Save a Cownose Ray, Take a Walk

do you think ARod hit 56 home runs BECAUSE he has a good OBP? or is it more likely that some pitchers nibble the strike zone when he is up to bat BECAUSE he is a serious home run threat?

by RaysIndex on Dec 30, 2007 6:02 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Save a Cownose Ray, Take a Walk

Or you know, he could be able to tell what's a bad pitch and what's his pitch, hence why he walks and hits homeruns.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 30, 2007 6:08 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Save a Cownose Ray, Take a Walk

Considering he posted an OBP over .400 without more than 30 homeruns a few times in the minors, yes, I think he could've.

Also, nice job curving that to AL hitters, and ignoring Todd Helton who only hit 17 homeruns but had a .434 OBP, Derek Lee hit 22, had a .400 OBP, Utley 22 with a .410 OBP.

Let's extend this past .400, since you theorize that homerun hitters get walked more, of the top 40 OBP ranked players 20 hit more than 25 homeruns, 20 didn't, and of those 20 who didn't 7 hit less than 10.

Fear or good hitting eyes in terms of hitting homeruns and walking?

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 30, 2007 6:04 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Save a Cownose Ray, Take a Walk

to quote a commenter on RI, 45 players hit 25+ home runs in 07. 32 had OBPs of .350 or better.

Players that hit home runs, generally have good OBPs and thus really good OPSs. players that have good OBPs do not necessarily hit a lot of home runs, and will not necessarily have a good OPS.

I will take a team made up of the top 10 home run hitters. You can have the top 10 OBPs and I'm willing to bet that my guys win more games. My guys will still have good OBPs. Not all of your guys will hit for power. My team OPS will dwarf yours.

by RaysIndex on Dec 30, 2007 6:21 PM EST up reply actions

That's beyond the point

But since you're so sure of it I ran the numbers through the Baseball Musing Lineup Analysis tool:

R.J.'s Walkers
David Ortiz .445 .621
Todd Helton .434 .494
Magglio Ordonez .434 .595
Albert Pujols .429 .568
Jorge Posada .426 .543
Chipper Jones .425 .604
Alex Rodriguez .422 .645
David Wright .416 .546
Carlos Pena .411 .627

Best Lineup: 8.094 runs per game
Albert Pujols David Ortiz Jorge Posada Alex Rodriguez Magglio Ordonez Carlos Pena Chipper Jones David Wright Todd Helton

Cork's Smashers
Alex Rodriguez .422 .645
Prince Fielder .395 .618
Ryan Howard .392 .584
Carlos Pena .411 .627
Adam Dunn .386 .554
Matt Holliday .405 .607
Jim Thome .410 .563
David Ortiz .445 .621
Lance Berkman .386 .510

Best Lineup: 7.808 Runs Per Game
David Ortiz Alex Rodriguez Jim Thome Carlos Pena Matt Holliday Prince Fielder Ryan Howard Adam Dunn Lance Berkman

So by that tool you're wrong, and my "No Fear Instilled" players are going to dwarf your sluggers.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 30, 2007 6:50 PM EST up reply actions

Re: That's beyond the point

I guess I should have looked and seen that the top 10 OBPs were all power hitters. Which just goes back to proving my original argument, which is power hitters have good OBPs.

Improving OBP alone will not necessarily result in more runs. Hitting more home runs will...in part because OBP will also go up.

by RaysIndex on Dec 30, 2007 7:08 PM EST up reply actions

Of course OBP will go up

Having more hits and making less outs has the tendency to raise your on-base percentage. However if you simply replace 25 singles with 25 homeruns you're not making much of a difference besides slugging.

Explain to me how the Chicago White Sox, 2nd in homeruns, last in OBP, scored amongst the lowest amount of runs if simply upping your OBP doesn't help score runs? Putting runners on is absolutely going to help score more runs, just hitting homeruns leaves you vulnerable like I mentioned.

Frankly I don't buy into the fear factor argument what so ever which essentially would cause the pitchers to be more cautious about the previous hitter. Bradbury did a study on the power of the on-deck hitter and found that when the next hitter has a OPS .100 points higher it has minimal impact on the current hitter.

Pitchers aren't going to force feed Carlos Pena a ball down the middle, but they aren't going to do that to any batter unless it's 3-0 with the bases empty.

Again, are they hitting homeruns and walking because of fear, or because they're overall good players? You can extend the fences back to 400 feet and A-Rod is still going to have an OBP around .400.

You imply homerun hitters walk more, yet Hank Aaron's career OBP is lower than Todd Helton - who has a measly 303 career homeruns, I believe Jeter's is also higher, and he's hardly a homerun hitter.

As the top 40 showed us it's a mix, as the lineup tool showed us high OBPs outweigh power hitters - even if the OBPs are composed of mainly homerun hitters, the Rays ALREADY were high in homeruns, but middle of the pack in on-base and runs, what does that tell us? The team hit too many solo shots because they didn't have enough men on base when they homered and couldn't manufacture runs otherwise through walks and non-homerun hits.

Homeruns alone don't make a good offense, having a ton of baserunners and being lucky when you get your homeruns and hits while mixing it with the skill of drawing a walk does.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 30, 2007 7:23 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Of course OBP will go up

You guys sound like the medieval philosophers arguing the angels on a pin thing. You both have truth in your basic premises.

I'd differ with your analysis above that the study by Bradbury proves your point RJ. In fact, your contention that a power hitter on deck should make the pitcher more cautious with the current hitter seems counter intuitive to me. I'd guess the pitcher would be more aggressive with a lesser hitter (lower OPS) followed by a better one, if we define that as throwing strikes or less balls to avoid walking that hitter, which should have a depressive effect on OBP perhaps offset by a higher SLG % due to a possibly higher BA from seeing more strikes. But I have no expectation that the net OPS should increase significantly.

Conversely it seems intuitive that power hitters, particularly the better hitters among them, would walk more due to pitchers avoidance of hittable pitches. And it does seem to me that this is the case, but I'm open to being proved incorrect.

Fundamentally though, a higher OBP should be more impactive on runs scored than just numbers of HR for the very reasons you outline.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 4, 2008 5:17 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Save a Cownose Ray, Take a Walk

Improving OBP will result in more runs, it's the most effective statistic to base an offense around. As you can see the top OBP players create the most runs, more than the HR leaders. Home runs may be a sexy statistic, yes, but OBP is better than anything because simply the offenses that make the least outs score the most runs.

by J.D. on Dec 30, 2007 7:14 PM EST reply actions

Re: Save a Cownose Ray, Take a Walk

I dont mean to belittle OBP at all. My point is just that power is something that changes the way ball games are played. Opposing managers and pitchers react differently. And it just so happens that there is a strong correlation between increasing power and increasing OBP, which is what everybody wants.

A better correlation to runs scored is OPS (OBP+SLG). IF a player increases his OBP, his OPS will go up. However, if a player increases his power, his SLG will go up AND there is a very good chance his OBP will also go up, so the overall increase to OPS is greater.

Barry Bonds has posted some of the best OBPs in history. Not because he has such a great eye, which certainly helps, but because pitchers will not pitch to him.

At the other end of the spectrum is Sean Burroughs. In his only two full seasons he posted strong OBPs of .348 and .350, yet nobody wants him on their team. Why? NO POWER and a poor OPS despite his good OBPs.

OBP is not the be-all-end-all. A player needs more than a strong OBP.

And to answer the previous point, replacing 25 single with 25 home runs, makes a HUGE difference. Besides the obvious (at least 25 guaranteed runs), a home run hitter, changes the game in a way that a singles hitter cannot. Tony Gwynn was one of the best hitters of the last 30 years, but he wasnt being intentionally walked or pitched around very often. Why? because a mistake pitch to him was only going to result in runners moving up one base. A mistake to a home run hitter is a run or runs.

by RaysIndex on Dec 30, 2007 7:34 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Save a Cownose Ray, Take a Walk

I'm sure the fact that Burroughs bombed the next year had something to do with nobody wanting him.

You say OBP isn't the end all, neither are homeruns. Otherwise teams like the Sox and Rays wouldn't have been amongst the middle or lower pack when it comes to runs scored.

Again half the top 40 don't hit many, but yet they're still getting on base good enough to be amongst the top 40 in the game.

The Rays need to focus on improving their team OBP, not homerun totals, players like Sosa prove that just because you hit homeruns doesn't guarantee you'll walk.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 30, 2007 7:50 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Save a Cownose Ray, Take a Walk

RJ, I'd also disagree with your definition of many HR's. You arbitrarily picked the number 25 - well you didn't, the original poster did - but only 42 players achieved that this season. Not 1.5 per team. I'd suggest 20 HR is a more reasonable standard for good power. And by that measure, only 3 of the top 20 OBP players fell short. Seems there at least a good correlation between power and OBP hinted at there. But I don't hink it's just due to the pitcher's fear - the batter's choice to wait for "his pitch" is likely just as important.

Perhaps the original wish for 5 players at 25 is just too much to ask. 84 players (almost 3 per team) hit 20. Better standard to me.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 4, 2008 5:31 AM EST up reply actions