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Price Check: Pitcher abuse or "Just good pitching"

In Friday's 10 inning outing, Price threw 137 pitches against Ole Miss hitters. In last weeks 9 inning outing against UIC, Price threw 120 pitches.

Many onlookers see those numbers and say "Oh my, that's too many pitches!" and cry out "Pitcher abuse! Pitcher abuse!"

Not so fast, guys....

Big numbers like this usually scare folks, seeing as you see a 3-digit number starting with a 1 and having a number after that which isn't a 0 following it.

However, doing simple math can do wonders.

Digging a little deeper and taking out a calculator, I calculated David's pitches per inning for both those 100+ pitch outings.

P/9(3/16 Vs. Ole Miss): 13.7
P/9(3/9 Vs. UIC): 13.3

If you look for efficiency for a starter, a "fast" inning is anything 10 pitches and under. For strikeout pitchers(which Price may or may not be, depending on how you look at things), you allow them some leeway.

Price averages 14.2 Ks per 9 and only 1.8 walks per, so his 13-15 pitches per inning isn't as harmful as many people think. In six starts, he's only pitched 45 innings(or 7.5 Innings per start).

Another thing that I'd like to point out is that Price isn't a "blazing fastball type of guy" with his fastball sitting between 89-93 on average. He's K'ing 14 per on finesse, intelligence and off-speed stuff.

Star-divide

Many Rays fans, last year, believed that the Rays made a horrible move by choosing Longoria over Tim Linecum and Andrew Miller. However, you could look at their numbers last year and say that their coaches left them in "a little too long" or "put unneeded strain on a young arm" as bad as some are making Tim Corbin out to be.

Linecum is 5'10"(maybe with a phone book beneath him) and weighs 155 pounds, which is a huge "risk" in itself, with a some "wild"(4.52 BB/9) very unorthodox "sling-shot" like pitching motion(which is some reason for concern) which allowed him to strikeout 14.29 per 9 in his Junior year of college. However, with all things considered, he managed to rack up 125(17 starts and 22 total outings) innings in college and another 31.2 in the minors last year.

Miller is 6'6" and 175 pounds, which makes him very comparable to David in body-type. Andrew had a very fluid pitching motion to go with his 97 mph fastball and was very much known for being a "extreme groundball pitcher" (2.92 BB/9) with some strikeout ability (9.71 K/9) at UNC. Miller pitched 123.1 innings(18 starts and 20 total outings) at UNC and additional 15.1 between the minors/majors.

Now, Price is listed at 6'6" and 215 pounds. He's a "hoss" in very sense of the word, with strikeabout ability and a propensity to induce grounders. He's only 45 innings into his season and 1/3rd of his expected total starts are in the books. If we use his average of 7.5 innings per start over a 17-18 start season, it comes to around 127-135 innings for the season. However, it's very much obvious that his 3 consecutive CGs have something to do with his average outings being almost 8 innings long. With David's size/body-type and pitch-selection/speeds, he's probably the least likely of these 3 to "breakdown."

Now, if we do indeed select Price as our #1 overall pick, I don't think he'd pitch much more than 15-25 additional innings for the rest of the season. 150-160 total innings(college/minors/sometimes majors) for a drafted college pitcher is usually a good amount for their season to finish at, however Price does already have the body-type and mentality of a 200+ IP pitcher.

0 recs  |  Comment 14 comments

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Nice breakdown Jake,
Breaking down his pitches in regards to his Ks / BBs he uses 43 pitches on strikes / strikeouts (assuming all are of the three strike variety) and 7 on walks (again assuming it's a four pitch walk) so 50 pitches out of 130 (or however many) are used on either walks or strikeouts the other __ were defensive pitches.

What does that mean? No clue, just wanted to point that out.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 18, 2007 8:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Nice breakdown Jake,
D'oh I said defensive variety, I meant either balls in play or a strike / ball.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 18, 2007 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pitcher abuse or "Just good pitching"
The thing that concerns me is if they are willing to let him go 140 pitches while it is still relatively early in the season, what will they do come tournament and playoff time when the season hangs in the balance?  If 140 pitches is acceptable on a cold night in March, what is the limit on a hot night in June?

by RATW on Mar 18, 2007 9:40 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Off topic
Off topic: Is Zobrist still slated to start at SS at the beginning of the year? The whole year?

by Shamus on Mar 18, 2007 10:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm not here to say
if he's throwing too many pitches.  Every pitcher is different.  Linecum seems to be a freak (claims he's never been sore after throwing which is amazing), and some guys can hold up when throwing 140 pitches a night.  However I tend to think it's not a great idea.

High pitch counts aren't damning, but I think there's enough evidence out there that suggests it's not a good idea.

As for him not having a blazing fastball, 89-93 is very much plus velocity for a lefty in the majors.  And to collge kids, it's absolutely blazing.  A good fastball in college baseball is one that touches 90.  He's got 2 major league plus pitches, to go along with what seems to be plus command.  College kids are really going to struggle to make contact with that.

by Tyler on Mar 18, 2007 11:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Price Check
I wonder if they had the internets back in 2001-02 when they were saying the same things about Mark Prior that they are about Price now...

by das411 on Mar 19, 2007 1:31 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Price Check
You mean Mark 'Perfect Mechanics' Prior, from the same USC that produced Anthony Reyes, both of whom had elbow issues?

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 19, 2007 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mark
did have perfect mechanics.  It just goes to show you that even with perfect mechanics you can get hurt.  And you're especially vulnerable when you're over-worked at a young age.

by Tyler on Mar 19, 2007 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Mark
In fairness, Prior's injuries have been
  • running into Giles
  • ball off elbow
  • achilles' tendon
  • shoulder stiffness
so not all of it is from pitching.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 19, 2007 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And
those injuries caused his 'perfect mechanics' to breakdown.  He no longer has perfect mechanics because he's had to compensate overtime because of these injuries.  He's also not as physically strong as he used to be.  When he came into the league he was refered to as 'calfzilla' because they were so big.  He's losed a lot of his strength in his legs for whatever reason.  He's a completely different pitcher today than he was when he was drafted.

by Tyler on Mar 19, 2007 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: And
Prior was the protoypical perfect pitcher in all aspects. He had the size, talent, mind, and genes for it.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 19, 2007 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: And
and had House and his "tutoring", hrmmmm...

USC and Rice are the schools known for vastly overworking their pitchers.

In Friday's case, David told Corbin that he wanted to pitch the 10th and that he was A-OK to pitch. After a few warm-up pitches, Corbin pretty much was assured that he was alright to pitch.

by Jacob Larsen on Mar 19, 2007 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: And
As you've stated before Dice K threw 200 in HS, pitch counts simply aren't going to make a pitcher's arm blow out, nor are blazing fastballs.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 19, 2007 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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