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Finally time to get really excited about the Rays? I think so.

Only 6 days until the season starts and well.. I think there is a lot to be excited about if you are a Rays fan.  Sure the Rays were playing really poorly in the early goings of the Spring with the exception of the pitching but on the 20th of this month, the time when the Rays were supposed to be starting to pay more attention to winning and well, the results have been very promising:

In last 8 games, Rays are 6-1-1.

They've out scored their opponents 58-21.
They've out hit their opponents 92-64.

Star-divide

Some of the hitting has been overdue but a big wonder is, is the scoring and the winning due to Maddon's attempt to make the Rays lineup more like an NL lineup?  

I think Maddon's lineup should not be overlooked as if the Rays continue with it and play small ball very agressively then I think with the Rays hitting and speed they can put enormous pressure on the other teams defense and  hopefully quickly get a 1 or 2 run leads early on.  This early Rays lead can then put more pressure on the other teams offense to score runs which will hopefully lead to the other team's offense pressing too much and being overly aggressive which will help out our young pitchers.  Obviously key to this whole strategy is the Rays ability to continue to tack on additional runs and the Rays bullpen being able to hold the leads.  I know, lots of IFs but still, I see some promise.

As for the Rays pitching:  If you look at the Rays Spring Training pitching stats, well they are looking pretty good.  Most of the big innings that the Rays have given up are either attributed to Kazmir tinkering (which I think we all know he will be fine), Dohmann, Glover, Micelli, and McClung.  Take out Kazmir tinkering and the fact that many of those who have been blown up this spring will not start the season with the Rays and the Rays' arms are looking strong.   A quick look at Rays starters stats as of 3/26:

Kazmir   13.2 innings 7.24era 12Ks 3HRs
Shields  24.1 innings 2.96era 25Ks 0HRs
J Seo    16.0 innings 1.69era  6Ks 0HRs
Fossum    7.2 innings 1.17era  5Ks 0HRs
Jackson  14.2 innings 1.84era 13Ks 0HRs

Note:  Shields 25Ks thru 6 starts is a Rays Spring Training Record.

I know its only Spring but 0 HRs by the non-Kazmir starters is great and hopefully this is a sign of the new focus of getting ahead of hitters by throwing 2 strikes for every 3 pitches.

How do the Rays Spring pitching numbers match up to other MLB teams?  As of right now (3/26), the Rays are keeping some great company:

  1. St Louis  2.39 ERA
  2. Yankees   3.06 ERA
  3. Baltimore 3.18 ERA
  4. Boston    3.47 ERA
  5. Indians   3.90 ERA
  6. Reds      3.98 ERA
  7. Tigers    4.13 ERA
  8. D Rays    4.17 ERA
  9. Blue Jays 4.21 ERA
  10. Marlins   4.32 ERA
  11. Dodgers   4.34 ERA
  12. Mets      4.41 ERA
  13. Twins     4.50 ERA
Note that most of the above teams except Baltimore were contending towards the end of last season.

Anyway, I know its only spring but if..

.. the Rays pitching has improved
.. the offense returns to 05 form and plays small ball aggressively
.. the defense has improved (improved depth plus acquisition of Aki)
.. and finally, the bullpen has been improved (those not worthy like McClung let go or sent to AAA)

Well I only have to conclude that this team is going to suprise quite a few folks this season and I cannot wait (and Saint Petersburg will never be the same)!  Go Rays!!

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Re:
Great post, and yes it's very encouraging to see the entire staff (with 3-4 exceptions) pitching the tar out of the ball.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 26, 2007 6:46 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Time to get excited?
After Rays beat Jays 1-0 the Rays ERA is now officially below 4.0 at 3.97 ERA.  They now have the 8th best ERA in MLB.  As of Tues night, 3/28:

ST LOUIS.......2.38
NY YANKEES...3.23
BALTIMORE....3.30
BOSTON.........3.58
TORONTO.......3.77
ATLANTA........3.81
CINCINNATI...3.85
CLEVELAND....3.94
TAMPA BAY....3.97
DETROIT........4.22

by BabySayGoRays on Mar 28, 2007 9:16 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: Time to get excited?
Um, what about all the teams playing in Arizona???

by Jacob Larsen on Mar 28, 2007 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Time to get excited?
That's great.  I always like to look for the positive.  Too bad the 1 - 5 spots are the WS champs and the four teams in our division!

Thanks Namoli - being in the AL East sure has created some great rivalries and lord knows you can never have enough Yankee/Boston a-holes on Center Field Street!  

More Cowbell Anyone??? . . .

by RaysBeliever on Mar 28, 2007 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Time to get excited?
Yup, I agree but it was nice to see last season that finally more and more Rays fans are showing at the Trop so when Rays are winning, well you can actually hear them even with Boston or New York in town.  I just hope Rays can start this season strong as that will be key to getting folks in the Trop.  Most years, the Rays start really slow and are in such a hole that well, very casual fans look at the standings and decide they do not want to make the drive to see a loser.  For a real baseball fan, no matter how poorly the team is playing, just being at the park is worth the price of admission.

by BabySayGoRays on Mar 28, 2007 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Finally time to get excited?
The worrying thing about the above is all of the AL East are represented which is just crazy.  It will be interesting to see where all of these teams end up towards the end of the season but clearly, given the unbalanced schedule not all of the AL East is going to be able to contend and someone is going to have to take some lumps and hopefully it will not be the Rays.

by BabySayGoRays on Mar 28, 2007 9:25 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: Finally time excited?
Ah.. you mean those ERA above do not relect at bats versus the Catus League teams? Ah, good point.  Well again, its only spring but I just thought that it was interesting at it does include all MLB teams this spring but yeah, the ERAs above are absent of at bats from the Cactus League teams.  The other thing I was thinking about is this spring, in the Grapefruit league, well it has been really windy and those winds could be keeping HRs in the park thus deflating Grapefruit League ERAs.  But again.. I'm optimistic but what else is new.  I recall being optimistic when Stocker and Rupe were still with the team!  ;)

by BabySayGoRays on Mar 28, 2007 9:32 AM EDT reply actions  

Problem
The problem with relying on that bunch of statistics for optimism is that spring training statistics are completely, without any doubt, the most useless prognosticator of regular season performance you could possibly cite. There is rarely ever any correlation between them and similar regular season numbers, and when there is, it is largely due to luck or an otherwise predictable conclusion in the first place. Using spring training statistics and allowing them to influence your judgement is a bad idea, I'm sorry.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Mar 28, 2007 3:28 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Problem
Oooh, black cloud amongst all this sunshine! While I agree with Patrick's point (you really don't expect Kaz is going to be your worst starter), the only way the Rays are gonna break through the 70 win barrier is if the pitching performance is significantly better. And there is hope in the performance of the individuals in a number of cases. Hopefully some momentum can carry over into the season, but Patrick's point is well taken.

Nothing wrong with hoping though. Enjoy the season! Baseball's Back! Sorry I won't be pulling for you to start out.

Can you believe it's looking like Kazmir vs PAVANO on Monday? Hey, gotta play 1 game at a time....

by nyyfaninlaaland on Mar 28, 2007 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Problem
Oh, by the way, the Arizona teams aren't represented because, well, have you seen the scores from Arizona. I think they kick extra points in those games.

It's a much different environmnent, very hitter biased due to altitude, so pitching numbers are very negatively skewed. Numbers there are even less projectable than from Florida. But hey, those are largely the West division and a few Central teams (Milwaukee, KC, 2 Chicago's). So who cares about them!

by nyyfaninlaaland on Mar 28, 2007 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Problem
Ya, I know Patrick but if that ERA was thru the roof and we were last, all Rays fans would be drawing a lot of conclusions from those numbers but yeah.. the team are focused more on individual performances but hopefully the positive signs we've seen will carry over.  But heck, I don't need stats for my optimism.. as I am full of it (literally)!  :D Heck, you gotta be or you'd have to find another team to pull for.  Either that or you are a glutton for punishment.

by BabySayGoRays on Mar 28, 2007 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

I can't speak for other fans
But I haven't said anything of my opinion about the 2007 Rays based off of spring training performance. I didn't say anything when we were 1-15, because it mattered not in the least then, and it doesn't matter now. It certainly is more fun to watch the winning team of late, but spring training is spring training and to try and garner anything useful from any stretch of play would be difficult.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Mar 28, 2007 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

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