Bring Sonny up NOW...

by jquigley on May 14, 2007 3:43 PM EDT Comment 19 comments

For goodness sake...

This kid has had all of the minor league seasoning he needs... He's tossed 360 inning the past two years. He's dominating at every level he's visited. 57Ks, 9BBs in 52 innings at Durham, opponents hitting well under .200 after today.
There is nothing fluky about his numbers to date. He is 24 years old, not 20...

Please, please, get him up here NOW!!

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Re: Bring Sonny up NOW...

I don't believe he's on the 40-Man roster, so he's towards the bottom of the list for the AAA starters when it comes to getting called up.

by SeanDubbs on May 15, 2007 12:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not true at all

It's easy to get him on the 40 man. If the DRO wants him up, they pick a reliever to DFA (Glover probably), and move Seo/Fossum to the pen. 40 man and 25 man spot open.

I'm not a huge Sonny fan. I don't think he'll be that good long term, but I really want to see what he can do in the bigs. Him and Hammel should be the first ones up. Howell isn't that good. Niemann is in AAA to stregthen his arm throwing low pressure innings so no reason to call him up and Talbot's clearly not ready yet.

by Tyler on May 15, 2007 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Not true at all

Why don't you think he'll be good long-term? I've seen nothing in his actual track record to indicate he won't be very solid, I'd say similar to Shields. All he does is get people out, let's not indict him for whatever "stuff" he doesn't have...
My main point is, there's been absolutely no dropoff in his performance as he's moved up the chain, and he's logged plenty of the innings the NDRO has spoken of wanting to see their pitchers log...

Let's not forget, a huge part of the Rays problem has always been issuing too many walks, and not drawing enough. It's not very sexy to discuss, but it's certainly true. Sonny can only help in that respect.

Demon Deacons

by jquigley on May 15, 2007 8:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's all about

stuff. He may very well prove me wrong, but I think he's going to struggle when he gets to the bigs. Now, I think he can become a guy who's an innings eating #5 starter, which is very valueble, but not anywhere near as good as him minor league numbers would indicate.

It's the classic scouts v. stathead arguement. Now, I'm not all against using stats to evaluate people, but I look at it in context of his scouting report too. And his stat's and scouting report don't match up at all. There's a huge disconnect there, and we've got to predict where he's going to end up in between.

I lean towards the back end of his projection. Not that great of a pitcher. Many people now see him as a #3 starter that could possibly turn into a Shields type. But Shields has a plus plus change up that gets everyone out. Now he taught it to Sonny and reportedly it's a plus pitch for him, but I just don't think he's going to be able to get lefties out consistently because of his side-arm/ 3/4 arm slot.

by Tyler on May 15, 2007 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm going with quigley on this one

Projections are great, but there's a point where a guys performance just merits getting a shot. It can't be all about stuff. Otherwise Jamie Moyer, Dave Eckstein and Tomo Ohka would never make it to the majors.

I think Sonny is forcing the issue here. I bet we see him in late June, early July now.

by JWallace on May 15, 2007 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: I'm going with quigley on this one

FWIW, Shields made his debut on May 31st...

Demon Deacons

by jquigley on May 15, 2007 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Deserves a shot

I absolutely believe he's earned a shot at to prove he can do it in the big leagues. I think he should be called up to see what he can do. All I was saying is that I don't think long term, he's going to look anything like his minor league numbers would suggest he could be.

by Tyler on May 15, 2007 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're a tools whore

Of course you are pessimistic on Sonnanstine ;)

by Patrick L. Kennedy on May 15, 2007 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: You're a tools whore

There is only one way to end this debate, bring him up. I don't see why not. His age, level, performance, etc. merit a promotion. At the very least, they could use him in the bullpen if there are still scout-related questions about his effectiveness as a major league starter. Use his tryout pen performance as a yard stick for next year.

by RATW on May 15, 2007 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

IMO

His best value by far is as a starter. The one thing he does really well that I like is that he's durable. He's thrown 180+ innings at least twice and maybe 3 times (don't feel like looking it up). If he's going to stay in the majors for a long time, it'll be as an innings eater who can give you 6-7 innings everytime out. And that is something this desprately needs. Even if he's giving up 4-5 runs a start, that'll help our pen a ton and at least give us a shot.

by Tyler on May 15, 2007 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Huh?

The 8.43 K/9 and 1.32 BB/9 over his career doesn't do anything for you? You think that doesn't translate to the major leagues?

by Patrick L. Kennedy on May 15, 2007 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It would

do a lot more for me if his 2-seam wasn't 84-86 and his 4 seam didn't top out at 91, but is mostly in the upper 80's. I also don't like the fact that his breaking pitch is fringy average.

by Tyler on May 15, 2007 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: It would

I'd like to know what you thought of Shields prior to the start of last year...

Demon Deacons

by jquigley on May 16, 2007 8:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: It would

I didn't write an actual comment on him when I did my 2006 prospect list. What I can tell you is that I had him ranked as the 12th best prospect in the DRO. The RBB list had him at 14 and Sonny at 11. I ranked Sonny at 14.

I didn't he'd be as good as he is, but clearly no one else did either (except Brickhaus, he nailed it ranking him 7, and Jim had him at 8). His hit rate in AAA concerned me a little. I wasn't as concerned about his fastball as I am about Sonny, although it was a concern if he missed his spot. I knew his change was good, but did not know it was one of the best in the league(which it is), I heard mearly plus. His curve was pretty much what I expected it to be.

I thought he had a ceiling of a good #3 if his curve came around. If it didn't he'd be a back end starter. Turns out his change is elite and his floor is a good #3 starter barring injury and his ceiling is a fringy ace (when I say that I mean he can be one of the top-25 pitchers in the league, every team doesn't have real ace. There are probably only 15 in the league at any one time).

by Tyler on May 16, 2007 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Have you observed this?

Because I've heard Sonnanstine's two seamer mentioned in the high 80s on several Biscuits radio broadcasts last year. And his breaking pitch is not fringy average, that is just wrong. The arm angle from which he throws adds deception to every one of his pitches, and further, his slurve and change up are purportedly excellent at the moment.

I'm sorry, it's possible to domiante AAAA players with his type of stuff, but his track record leads me to indicate that you are just vastly underestimating him.

And giving him no credit for his control is absurd, especially when it is as good as Sonnanstine's is. Pitchers who can actually locate their stuff is a bonus, no matter how good you consider their offerings.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on May 17, 2007 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Listen

I like him more than you guys are giving me credit for, but I'm just tempering expectations for him. I give him credit for his control. He's got great control, but Tom Glavine, Jamie Moyer types are very rare (guys without more than one plus pitch, yet are still very effective).

He's a very valuable player. And he does do things well. He's exactly the type of guy you want at the end of a rotation. A guy who's durable and can go deep into games. By some estimates, innings eaters can be worth 10 games a year because they save the pen so well.

What I expect out of Sonnanstine is an ERA in high 4's (in time, not necessarily this season), but he'll give you 200 innings. Frankly, that's the reason I want up now, because I think he can help our pen. Fossum and Kaz both don't go deep in games, and Seo is durable, but is to bad to make it deep in games.

As for his slurve (which is almost always used as derogatory term when describing a breaking pitch), I've never seen one scouting report that has rated it anything other than average. 50 on the 20-80 scale.

His change is a plus pitch. And if it turns out to be as good as Shields I might look very bad in my projection, but as of now I stand by it because I haven't heard anyone say it's as good.

by Tyler on May 17, 2007 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

High four ERA is his max?

That speaks pretty low of him. Granted, when it is an innings eater, that is valuable, but IMO Sonnanstine can be better than that over the course of his career. I think that he has the potential to put up a low 4 ERA fairly often over the course of his career. I've heard good things about his slurve as well as his changeup, but part of the reason I am not as hell bent on scouting as you are is because I don't like relying on others' subjective interpretations of the abilities of pitchers. Don't get me wrong, BA is great. I get their handbook every year, I read through it all the time, and I fine their scouting reports to be in-depth and enlightening as to generally what a pitcher is. However I am ultimately extremely reluctant to rely on their evaluations specifically, because it is subjective and most of the time I don't see it for myself. That is why statistics carry more weight for me. Now, when I see Sonnanstine pitch in the majors on a consistent basis, I may re-evaluate my take on him. But the stats don't just talk to me, they scream in Sonnanstine's case.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on May 18, 2007 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Bring Sonny up NOW...

Demon Deacons

by jquigley on May 16, 2007 8:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You're funny, Tyler

In the past week, you've said....

Ricky Porcello has a higher ceiling than David Price, who is one of the most dominating college pitchers ever, and should be considered for the #1 pick spot(even though you admit it's more than likely going to be Price)
Sonny won't be anything more than average in the majors, due to his "stuff", while totally disregarding his career minor league stats. Sonny's lack of an overpowering fastball isn't as much of a problem with him being a sidearmer than it would be with a "normal" arm slot. Sidearmers create tons of deception and even major leaguers are dumb enough to fall for it.

With your thoughts and theories coming on an almost daily basis, you should consider returning to writing here again.

by Jacob Larsen on May 16, 2007 9:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs