Pitch count/Inning count

by joedobr on Jul 29, 2007 6:03 PM EDT Comment 22 comments

Fellas,

Don't shoot the messenger, its going to be a course of discussion. Its the same old same old. I am happy the team won to break the schneid, but Maddon didn't put his club in the best position to win this game. In my opinion, you owe it to Kazmir to give him a chance to win the game rather than hold him to 6 innings and 97 pitches. It rues of an ulterior motive and anyone can say anything they want, but Kazmir was very, very upset to be taken out of that game. I won't pose that question, but I will go out on a limb and say Kazmir was not just a little upset, but VERY unhappy. The game against New York and Clemens after the break, I accept him being pulled because he was fighting hitters and getting deep into counts too much.

But this was a 0-0 game against an exceptional opponent who he was geared up to face and normally pitches well against and in my mind, had the floor and plug removed prematurely. Glover bailed the team out, but if you played Boston 10 times, you are going to lose that game 8 out of 10 times. I do not understand why Kaz was not allowed to pitch the 7th to try to get him a W and another feather in his cap. My two cents, and I could be somewhat off track.

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::yawn::

Sounds like yet another conspiracy theory to me...

Kazmir does need a pitch/inning count, he racks up too many pitches trying to strikeout every batter.

Who gives a damn if he's upset/unhappy, he hasn't shown much except for 4-5 starts this year. At least he's appearing to start to pull his head out of his ass.

by Jacob Larsen on Jul 29, 2007 6:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: ::yawn::

Not a conspiracy but a FACT. He was shaking his head in the dugout not happy. And 97 pitches in a 0-0 stalemate is not sufficient grounds for dismissal from today's game. Go ahead and question that, its fair. I am not making any conspiracy up, but if it was Harang or F. Hernandez or Lackey, they would have stayed in that game.

In the context and course of THIS game, he earned another inning.

Joe

by joedobr on Jul 29, 2007 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ::yawn::

Kaz is always pissed about coming out, but saying if it were Lackey / Felix is different, we're not in the playoff hunt like those two teams, and neither have the efficiency concerns.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 29, 2007 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ::yawn::

My only concern was in the course of this very game, not in the past or his other mess ups. Believe you me, I was and have been critical. He seemed to have a pretty good game plan and approach today.

I think Magrane made a telling point that he believe that Kazmir will NEVER be super efficient in his pitches per inning. If that is the case he can't be a top of the rotation work horse getting deep into games on a consistent basis. I honestly don't see the fault with in this instance him getting a chance not to have an ND.

I just wonder where and how Kaz is channeling that anger. Webb pitches deep, Harang pitches deep and has tons of innings. I don't disagree with style and action, but its worth noting.

Joe

by joedobr on Jul 29, 2007 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ::yawn::

Maybe, just maybe, Kazmir is nothing more than a #3 pitcher. Until Shields hit his slide, which we should be accustomed to(due to his constant tweaking of his pitches), Shields dominated and went deep into games, something that Kazmir hasn't even attempted to learn.

by Jacob Larsen on Jul 29, 2007 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ::yawn::

Its a valid point and very fair of you to say. Happy you said that. That is real critical analysis.

Joe

by joedobr on Jul 29, 2007 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ::yawn::

Stuff wise he's an ace, he has to learn to go deeper into games, yes, but he's 23, has a ++ slider and a ++ fastball and in this past month has an ERA of sub 3, not to mention Shields has shown signs of fatigue lately.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 29, 2007 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ::yawn::

Then, he must pitch to contact and let his defense do some work. He doesn't have to K 8 guys a start to win.

Joe

by joedobr on Jul 29, 2007 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ::yawn::

Kaz is a strikeout pitcher, and he's limiting his walks, but there in lies the difference between Webb and Kaz. Webb is a GB master, let's look at the IP / PT count for Webb / Kaz this year:

Kaz: (Innings pitched / pitches)
5 107
7 111
8 113
4 102
6.2 108
7 104
6 105
6.1 117
4 109
5 96
7 105
7 105
5 103
6 117
6 114
6 116
5.1 114
6 113
5 105
6 117
7 94
6.2 113
6 97

Webb (innings pitched / pitches)
5 96
7
7 96
8 101
8 115
7 107
6 106
9 90
6 98
7 118
7 88
8 113
7 99
7 116
7 104
5 99
7 105
6 87
7 115
5.2 97
7 91
7 116

Webb is throwing around the same amount, only with 1-2 more innings, and he's not throwing tired since he's using breaking stuff and movement to get his outs, Kaz depends on a mix of velocity and movement.

Also note Kazmir is 5'11" in high heels, Webb is 6'2".

Maddon likely didn't want Kaz going out, getting into trouble (remember last start?) and turning a spectacular outing into crap within 10-20 pitches.

That or managment has told Joe don't allow him to go past 6 if it's risking 110+ pitches.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 29, 2007 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, you see

There's a difference between Lackey, Felix and Harang. Lackey and Harang were slowly progressed into innings-eating workhorses and knew how to be economical with their pitches when becoming that. Kazmir went down last year because his knack for throwing "way too many f'n unnecessary pitches" finally had a negative effect on his arm. He's currently the leader in pitches thrown per start, which isn't a good thing coming from a guy who barely pitches into the 5th or 6th inning and a person who got shutdown due to shoulder troubles. He's a small pitcher with high-torque pitches. That's not a recipe for success, now is it?

Felix Hernandez, on the other hand, was coddled in his first couple of seasons and went on limited workloads and pitch counts because Seattle knew that he had to be slowly turned into an innings eater. He's also got a projectable body who is going to support the workload that's given to him.

Kaz hasn't earned, pardon my french, shit. He can whine, piss and moan all he wants, but guess what...he's still a guy who needs to learn how to become economical with his pitches and not try to burn his arm out going for strikeouts. Maybe he'd decrease his walks if he did that, huh?

Let him hit arbitration, he hasn't proven he's worthy of a long-term deal. If he has, Wade Davis and Jake McGee need to be locked up. David Price needs to be given a lifetime deal, if that's the case.

by Jacob Larsen on Jul 29, 2007 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Well, you see

Completely agree with you. Its almost absolute in that. I think your comments hit the nail on the head. To compare Kazmir to guys like I mentioned like Webb, Harang, Hernandez, Lackey is a real stretch. I will ask then what are the organization's goals for what Kazmir is to be then? I don't disagree with you that his style is conducive and susceptible to injury down the road. For him today, it wasn't a "growing moment" for him sulking in the dugout shaking his head moaning and groaning.

97/6 equals 16 in my mind. That means he's throwing 2 balls to every hitter in an inning on average and/or putting runners on base and pitching out of the stretch. Bottom line, I agree, you take Kaz to an arbitration hearing and if you have to go year-to-year until he does what he is supposed to do.

Joe

by joedobr on Jul 29, 2007 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Well, you see

Kazmir's start-by-start goal should be to average no more than 14-15 pitches per inning and reach the 7th inning in each start.

Kazmir's season goal should be to reach or get close to hitting 200 innings.

Simple as that, the Ks will come if his "stuff" is really that good and the walks will go down.

by Jacob Larsen on Jul 29, 2007 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Well, you see

While I completely agree with you that Kaz has some learning to do to fulfill his potential, that he's only 23 and still seems to think he can throw a ball through a brick wall isn't so surprising.

I'd take issue with your analysis of how to handle him contractually, however. The motivation in signing a guy to a long term deal is payroll predictability. The arbitration process can be very unpredictable. It's also a 2-way street - the player can choose to go down it if he (and his agent) feel that it could be more lucrative, or they don't feel a sense of long-term committment to their current organization. Teams typically try to lock up players through their arb years to increase payroll predicability and hopefully to save money versus the arb process - the tradeoff is financial security versus short term maximization for the player. There is going to be a strong market for a pitcher like Kazmir (23, power lefty starter) for the foreseeable future, so getting stuck with a bad contract is less likely here. And I'd argue that over the past 3 seasons he's more than earned the committment. It's in the Rays interest to lock him up. And doing so sends the message that the organization is in for the long haul, not on a year to year lease.

He's proven much more than any of your 3 prospects. I'm sure you're writing from a sense of frustration with Kazmir's seeming headstrong behavior here. Patience, eye on the goal, and a willingness to make financial mistakes (not disasters) is required.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jul 31, 2007 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Pitch count/Inning count

I shouldn't be as critical, but its the nuance that bothered me the most to comment about it. For me it begs the question. What are the goals and the objectives not just for the remainder of the season, but beyond. Fixing the bullpen and acquiring some arms was a good thing that took place. My point is, if you have your "ace" on the mound, and he is pitching well, and in a 0-0 game against a good opponent, what are you doing pulling him out? To me he did not deserve to get a ND, but a chance for a W-L. Tito had no qualms putting Dice-K out there and Navarro got to him. That's the game and the breaks. But you at least give Kaz a shot to leave with the lead AND give your beleaguered and short pen at least 3 less outs to get against a formidable opponent. To me, its just not good percentages, although it worked this afternoon.

Joe

by joedobr on Jul 29, 2007 6:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Kazmir

I think people are being a little hard on Kazmir. He is 3rd in the league in strikeouts and 3rd in the league in K/9. His BABIP is .339 which would make anyone a little scared to pitch to contact. Many people are claiming that Shields is now the ace of the staff however, Kaznir's ERA is 3.85 and Shields is 4.47. It has been a frustrating season and Kazmir can at times be frustrating ,however, I think he will eventually be part of the solution.

by TomT on Jul 29, 2007 7:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Kazmir

People are hard on Kaz because he was seemingly not focused until 4-5 starts ago. Whatever happened to begin July has changed him.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 29, 2007 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Kazmir

He was extremely unhappy because Hickey was trying to eff with his mechanics and make him do things he didn't want to do. Hickey finally stopped and let him be himself, and now he's dealing again.

Scott - www.futurerays.com

by New Hit Show on Jul 29, 2007 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Kazmir

Yeah, he's a headstrong fellow, and for now it looks fine, hopefully he won't have arm issues down the road.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 29, 2007 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Kazmir

I won't be surprised, though, if Kazmir had late-season problems like last year. Hickey dealt with small-statured pitchers(Oswalt ring a bell?) before and knows more than Kazmir what will save his arm.

by Jacob Larsen on Jul 29, 2007 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Pitch count/Inning count

This is off-topic but I have noticed that when Kazmir is in a jam he puts more heat on the ball. He usually hits his fastball at 93 mph but today when the Red Sox had someone at 3rd he was hitting 96 mph on the gun. This is not the first time I have seen this when he get sin trouble.

I think Kazmir is still the Ace and hopefully he can finish the season strong.

by Flabull on Jul 29, 2007 7:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Pitch count/Inning count

Yep, most pitchers won't go full velocity until it's called upon, Kaz is amongst them. If he became a closer you'd probably see him hit 96 more often.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 29, 2007 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Pitch count/Inning count

We are a billion games out of first. Kaz is nearing 100 pitches.. Totally agree with pulling him. Who cares if he gets through the 7th inning in late July. Just keep his pitch count low and see if he's strong enough to get through Sept.

by JWallace on Jul 30, 2007 12:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs