Breaking News: Operation Shutdown 2007

by Jacob Larsen on Sep 18, 2007 8:48 PM EDT

Joe Maddon and Andrew Friedman decided last night to shut Shields down for the year in an effort to preserve the long-term health of his arm. Shields has pitched 215 innings this season after throwing a career-high 186 innings between Durham and Tampa Bay last year.
"We decided to just shut him down," said Maddon. "There's nothing wrong with him; we're just going purely based off innings pitched and the number of pitches that he's thrown this year. We just wanted to stop it right now."
Shields was taken aback by the decision--especially being told the day before the Southern California native was scheduled to start before family and friends.
"I was pretty shocked," he said. "I'm not really too happy with the full decision, but it is what it is and there's nothing I can really do about it."

Can't really say that I'm totally mad about this decision, seeing as I'd like to see Shields slowly turned into a pitcher that can counted on for 230-240 innings per season and strikeout 200-220 hitters. He went from mid-180s to 215 in one season and I think that, even with his effortless mechanics, is enough reason for a shutdown.

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Re: Breaking News: Operation Shutdown 2007

It's a good move that probably should have been announced earlier.

by sattp on Sep 18, 2007 8:59 PM EDT reply actions

On the contrary

I thought the timing was excellent. He was the scheduled starter for tomorrow and was the one Anaheim was preparing for. Now, about 18 hours before tomorrow's first pitch, Anaheim has to prepare for an entirely different pitcher with a different style in J.P. Howell. I don't think Shields has been in the dark up until today, I don't think they'd do that to him. But I think that it was a good piece of gamesmanship to keep Anaheim off guard.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Sep 18, 2007 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: On the contrary

I agree with Patrick, plus JP has hinted that he's got some newfound velocity(says that he's been hitting 92 lately) and that may account for him winning the IL crown in limited play there.

by Jacob Larsen on Sep 18, 2007 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Hopefully the velocity numbers are true

Ninety-two seems way high for Howell, but if he can get it up to even 87-88 I will be pleased. I've been one of J.P.'s biggest supporters this year, so I'm hoping that he sees an increase in velocity. Even a modest one up to the late 80s I firmly believe will result in his success.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Sep 18, 2007 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Hopefully the velocity numbers are true

It was in an article from one of the last few days regarding him. He said that his starting days aren't over.

Last night's start for Jackson might've been the final nail in the coffin for him as a Ray/starter and these final 2-3 starts for Howell could really make some noise for him. However, if I had to choose a pitcher that relies on control rather than velocity and had Howell or Sonnanstine as my choices...it's Sonny all day.

by Jacob Larsen on Sep 18, 2007 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Upon further review

Reading the paper today and hearing Shields talking about being pissed at not being able to pitch in front of his family and friends changed my opinion just a little. I don't mind the team announcing the change at a late date, which I still think is fine, but they should have kept Shields in the loop and informed him far earlier so that he could tell his family and friends not to come. That was probably incorrectly handled, but I do still agree with the move.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Sep 19, 2007 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Can't say I'm opposed to it either

Throwing 215 innings is a hell of an accomplishment, and you don't want to risk too much of a jump screwing him up. He'll only miss two starts anyways.

All I have to say is 'great job, Jamie!'. He really took a gigantic step forward this year for the team and posted some absolutely outstanding numbers. He really is looking like a big part of our future and is cause for optimism. The Rays already have an excellent No. 1/2 combo in Kazmir and Shields, and that is with several more prospects on the way. Tremendously successful year for Jamie, and I hope he keeps it up into next year.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Sep 18, 2007 9:00 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Can't say I'm opposed to it either

Yeah, Shields may have taken the crown from Kazmir in being our best fantasy baseball pitcher on the team. He's got a decent K rare, minimal walks and a nice ERA to go along with a miniscule WHIP. Kazmir has Ks and a mid 3 ERA.

by Jacob Larsen on Sep 18, 2007 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Can't say I'm opposed to it either

"The Rays and others around the game have done extensive research on pitchers who have suffered arm injuries and found a correlation with large year-to-year increases in innings pitched. The pitch counts and innings totals of the Rays' young aces, Shields and Scott Kazmir, have been under scrutiny all season, and the Rays decided enough was enough with Shields."

This quote is the most important part of the article that I hope everyone understands and I'd hate for anyone to judge this move without reading at least understanding why the decision was made.

And, not to mention, Pridie or Ruggiano may be called up also.

by sattp on Sep 18, 2007 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Definitely

I suspect that this was a calculated move as that quote suggests. Better safe than sorry.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Sep 18, 2007 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Can't say I'm opposed to it either

I agree with this. Kazmir, due to his precautionary shutdown last year and short stints in the 1st half, has 2 starts that won't really effect his arm or shoulder. However, Shields had a decent-sized jump in innings and next year will probably the year that the kid gloves come off him and he'll rack up around 240-250 innings.

by Jacob Larsen on Sep 18, 2007 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Breaking News: Operation Shutdown 2007

I wouldn't be opposed to shutting down Kazmir either. He's got 50 more innings than last year(though only 10 more than in 2005).

That would give Hammel, Jackson, Sonnanstine, Howell, and somebody else(Talbot? Niemann? Ryu?) a couple of starts to audition for next year.

by raysrule07 on Sep 18, 2007 9:39 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Breaking News: Operation Shutdown 2007

If you read more of Lancaster's blog, Kazmir was mentioned and they said that he'll be kept on a 100 pitch PC and get his 2 remaining starts.

Had they wanted to shutdown Kazmir, it would've been done in my mind.

by Jacob Larsen on Sep 18, 2007 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Breaking News: Operation Shutdown 2007

As smart as this move is for the long term, which is really all that should matter for the Rays at this point...I am kind of pissed that when i FINALLY get to Tampa Bay on Thursday I won't be able to see a Shields start in person. Hmph!

Guess I'll just hafta pick Kaz's game instead ;)

by das411 on Sep 19, 2007 2:36 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Breaking News: Operation Shutdown 2007

Personally I could not be happier from a selfish perspective. The rotation was lined up for the Yanks to face both Kaz and Shields, the Sox only Kaz. I'm sure the quaking fans in Boston will get themselves in a further dither when that realization kick in. Plus that he's pulled against the Angels, hot on their heels for best record and home field / schedule choice advantage - a huge deal for the team with the best home record and 2 premier starters.

From a practical perspective its nigh impossible to disagree with this move, although the org shouldn't have surprised Jamie with the news - particularly given his chance to appear before his hometown group. What, somebody just figured this out yesterday?

Anyway, I still think Niemann should come up and take E-Jax's spot for the final 2 turns. But he'd be making a big innings jump as well, so maybe not. And giving Howell another look isn't a bad thing - starting depth is always required, and another lefty to face the East titans can't be bad. Tough draw for Howell though - Angels and Yanks, 2 hot hitting teams. Cut him some slack.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Sep 19, 2007 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions

That won't be happening

The Rays shut down Shields because he exceeded their criteria of a 20% jump in innings for one year. Niemann has already done that and more, in fact he has a 70% jump in innings from last year to 131 as he completed his first full, non-injury season. I don't think the Rays will be adding onto that.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Sep 19, 2007 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions

The good news

I suppose is at least Niemann didn't miss a large chunk of him despite the innings leap; gotta hope that holds up for the foreseeable future.

Innings increase + healthy that is.

Yes. Healthy.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 19, 2007 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: That won't be happening

Interesting criteria, but by my math, Shields isn't up to a 20% increase yet. Between Durham and Tampa last year he threw 186 innings. Plus 20% would be 223. Guess he could have gone in LA, huh?

And I get how this impacts Niemann, but why not E-Jax, who's actually 6 months younger than Niemann and almost 2 years younger than Shields. He up 50% from '06 (since he spent so much time in the Tampa pen). Now, he's only up 12 innings from '05, and actually under the 170 he threw at age 19 in 2003. Interestingly, Niemann is also under the 137 he threw for Rice in 2003. Guess there's a "done it before, but recently and in the pros" corrolary. Or they care less about Jax than the others. Just lately EJ's performance might suggest tired. Or Mr. Kennedy is right and he just sucks.

Ryu is way under his innings cap, could probably use the work, and pitched as recently as the 15th. Another guy I don't understand not calling up. But he's probably already back in Korea wondering the same thing. Even Talbot with 170 IP in AAA isn't at his cap, only up about 10% from '05.

Hey, Stokes isn't doing anything... LOL.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Sep 20, 2007 3:45 AM EDT up reply actions