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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

Prospect List: Ranking #2

Before we get to our actual DRB community prospects list and the candidates for the number two slot I do feel the need to point out that 2007 third round pick Nick Barnese ranks as the sixth best prospect in the Appalachian League, the only Rays player listed in the top 20.

Moving on to our project one thing was clear from yesterday's results; everyone loves Longoria. 26 of the 35 votes were for the Durham third baseman, and since this is pretty pointless if I don't actually give information on the players, popular or not, here's a scouting report on Evan along with the three paths a player can take and my comparisons at each stop.



After emerging last summer with an MVP performance in the Cape Cod League, Longoria cemented his status as a premium draft prospect with a strong spring and enters the draft as the consensus choice as the best of a weak crop of hitters. While his name's similarity to that of "Desperate Housewives" star Eva Longoria attracted attention, Longoria is not related to her. He wasn't drafted out of high school or a year later at Rio Hondo (Calif.) Junior College, but his game and body have matured since then. Longoria has grown two inches and 25 pounds since junior college, adding strength to a smooth swing that generates solid-average power. He has excellent hands that translate well both at the plate and in the field. Longoria's bat speed gives him at least average power, and it allows him to let balls get deep and use the entire field. While he filled in at shortstop last spring for the injured Troy Tulowitzki, the eventual No. 7 overall pick of the Rockies, Longoria has played mostly third base in 2006 and is a solid defender there with plenty of arm strength. He also could play second base, where he'd be an above-average offensive player.

Boom - Chase Utley (offensive production)
Medium - Aaron Hill
Bust - Joe Randa
Video

After the jump we look at the five prospects vying for the second slot.

Star-divide

David Price

Position: LHSP

Age:22.1

Projected 08 Level:AA

The other half of the first round poster children, Price has yet to partake in a Rays sanctioned game, but none the less his draft status and ace potential put him on the initial slew of candidates.

Jake McGee

Position: LHSP

Age: 21.1

Projected 08 Level: AA/AAA

Stats:

Vero Beach (21 GS)- 116.2 IP 86 H 8 HR 145 SO 39 BB 2.93 ERA

Montgomery (5 GS)- 23.1 IP 19 H 2 HR 30 SO 13 BB 4.24 ERA

McGee out dueled fellow top lefty prospect Clay Kershaw not once but twice down the pivotal stretch and alongside fellow top arms Christopher Mason and Wade Davis lead Montgomery to it's second consecutive Southern League title. His fastball is ethereal and perhaps for the pure potential alone he could make a case for the first or second slot in the organizational food chain.

Wade Davis

Position: RHSP

Age:22.0

Projected 08 Level: AA/AAA

Stats:

Vero Beach (13 GS) - 78.1 IP 54 H 5 HR 88 K 21 BB 1.84 ERA

Montgomery (14 GS) - 80 IP 74 H 3 HR 81 K 30 BB 3.15 ERA

Another third of the Montgomery trio, Davis is more polished than McGee in terms of using his non-fastball pitches, although I'm not sure that any of his pitches can match the effectiveness of that McGee heater.

Reid Brignac

Position: SS

Age:21.8

Projected 08 Level: AAA

Stats:

Montgomery (527 AB) - .260/.328/.433/.761 17 HR 81 RBIs 55 BB 94 K

Although the Cajun God did struggle for most of the year, you wonder if perhaps some of it was Longoria withdrawal. Brignac maintains his hacky ways, but with a patient hitter like Longoria complementing his style you have to wonder if he grew too accustomed to the Batman / Robin approach.

Jeff Niemann

Position: RHSP

Age:24.7

Projected 08 Level: MLB

Stats:

Durham (25 GS) - 131 IP 144 H 13 HR 123 K 46 BB 3.98 ERA

"Big Red" had his most healthy season to date and finished strong down the stretch, giving hope that come April Niemann will be taking the mound for Tampa every fifth day.

Poll
Who's #2?
Jeff Niemann
11 votes
David Price
30 votes
Jake McGee
14 votes
Wade Davis
7 votes
Reid Brignac
8 votes

70 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 7 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Re: Prospect List: Ranking #2
Interesting that the scouting report on Longoria says "strong arm' while the Project Prospect says merely "average arm".

I also think it is a bit overstating the point that Brignac continued his "hacky ways". 55 walks in 527 ABs is not a bad ratio, nor is 94 Ks that bad either. More important, both are improvements over last year. Although he doesn't walk anywhere as much as Longoria, he struck out significantly less. In Durham, Longoria struck out once every 3.6 ABs and once every 4.7 ABs at Montgomery while Brignac Ked once every 5.6 ABs at Montgomery.

I have a problem ranking a prospect who never pitched in the pros no matter how remarkable his college career. I also like players who not only have tools but skills as well, and on that basis I think Davis is ahead of McGee (as do the Rays it seems). Niemann seems to have slipped in reputation a bit this year despite his late season heroics, so my vote goes to Davis.

by bobr on Sep 24, 2007 3:48 PM EDT reply actions  

I changed the scouting report
To an older BA one, but I added video of his swing.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 24, 2007 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

David Price
I said he was 1, so I guess will go with 2. He is a power lefty that proved himself in college and on the national stage. Niemann is talented, but Price has more talent. I also love McGee and Davis, but to me Price is better than the two of them as well.
http://tampabaysportsfanatic.blogspot.com/

by tampabaysportsfanatic on Sep 24, 2007 4:17 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Prospect List: Ranking #2
How exactly is Aaron Hill a superior hitter to Joe Randa?

by Brickhaus on Sep 24, 2007 8:22 PM EDT reply actions  

Their career stats are nearly identical
Although Randa does have an advantage in SLG by about .015 points.

Basically it's a draw and I shouldn't have rated one above the other.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 24, 2007 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Their career stats are nearly identical
Is it safe to put Longoria's midpoint closer to Todd Zeile?  I would think so, and that might even be shooting a hair low.

by Brickhaus on Sep 25, 2007 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Prospect List: Ranking #2
I'm more inclined to vote for McGee of those on the list.  It's just hard for me to vote for Price because he hasn't pitched a professional inning yet but I know he deserves to be in the top 5 Rays prospects for sure.  Without Price it would come down to McGee/Brignac for me.

by sattp on Sep 25, 2007 11:49 AM EDT reply actions  

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