Most Important Ray?

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 25, 2008 1:05 PM EST Comment 17 comments

Our own Kevin Gengler took part in a Rays blog 'round table' of sorts at Rays Anatomy. The question was which Ray is the most important to the team's future success; the answers included David Price (twice), Jake McGee, Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, and Gengler's pick of Scott Kazmir, but my answer would be none of the above.

Price and McGee should make Rays' debuts before July 2009 and while we pencil both into future rotations and bullpens I'd group them along with Wade Davis as important, but not the most important.

Crawford, Upton, and Kazmir are again very important, but they've been here and performed quite well without seeing the team gain much success - it's not their faults, and you can lump James Shields and others into that faction.

That's why I'd go with Matt Garza - yes I'm bordering on being the head of the Garza fan club, but consider that the Rays' third best starter last year had an ERA+ of 78, 22% below average - it was literally Kazmir, Shields, run for the hills. Garza's ERA+ was 118, higher than James Shields' 117, now I'm not saying Garza's season was better, it wasn't and his peripherals indicate he was lucky, but when you take into account his success throughout all minor league levels I don't think it's a reach to say he could be perennial 110 ERA+ pitcher.

Why is he so important? If Garza can provide that substantial upgrade in the Rays' rotation you have to figure the team can get nearly 600 innings from the top three in the rotation, taking pressure off of the bullpen. In theory you want your best pitchers taking the most innings and the best hitters taking the most at-bats, that's what the Rays can do with Garza. With three solid arms you have to feel confident that the team can piece together a decent back-end of the rotation between all the spare and upcoming parts.

Assuming the Rays' have a solid rotation they could be heading for a 81+ win season, which would help turn public opinion towards the idea of a new stadium a bit more - consider that just a few days ago on a local news channel an opponent of the new stadium called the team "One of the worst teams in the nation." The local fans say they've heard the prospect talk before and the owners are too cheap - what better way to garner a few extra votes than provide winning baseball in St. Pete for the first time ever?

Garza takes pressure off of the organization to rush Price, Davis, or McGee into the majors and let us not forget who we traded for him, if Garza busts and Delmon flourishes you don't think local pens will let them live that down, do you?

Make no mistake 2008 is about breaking over .500, finishing at least third in the division, and getting that new park, Garza is critical to all three of those things and the future success of the Rays - namely maintaining long term success - weighs heavily on what the team does this year.

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I wholeheartedly disagree

If Kazmir or Shields is better for longer, then they should be deemed more valuable. Garza might be impressive for a #3, but without those two, he'd be an underwhelming #1. It's not as if Garza is displacing one of the other two. By the same logic, you could say that Shields and Garza are are #1 and #2, and that putting in Kazmir at the #3 gives you 200 IP of a 130 ERA+ guy instead of 200 IP of 78 ERA+. I could see the argument for a position player (because the loser of the battle would be pushed out of the lineup), but for a pitcher, the argument is a fallacy.

by Brickhaus on Jan 25, 2008 1:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: I wholeheartedly disagree

That wasn't my logic at all though, of course without Shields / Kazmir he's not very impressive, but the question isn't which player is indispensable or which player can the Rays do without, it's which is the most important to future success and with all things being as they are I believe Garza is the key to success considering his role and given what's around him.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 25, 2008 1:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: I wholeheartedly disagree

BUT, if Kazmir gets injured, his contribution doesn't mean that much. Same isn't true in reverse.

by Brickhaus on Jan 25, 2008 6:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Fair enough

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 25, 2008 6:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Most Important Ray?

A really interesting perspective on the question. My initial reaction to the question would be to choose either Kazmir or Upton. Kazmir because the big question is does he become a perennial Cy Young candidate or does he continue his somewhat more erratic performance. If the former, a whole host of results ensue as well as huge questions (such as contracts). Upton because if he becomes an impact bat and fielder in CF he anchors a lineup and a defense.

But your response is far more subtle and complex, and very possibly more meaningful.

by bobr on Jan 25, 2008 1:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Most Important Ray?

I would not be suprised if Garza ends up being better than Shields. He was a more highly touted prospect, and he's younger. If you look at each of their first years you'll see what I'm saying:

Garza (first two half years)
22-23/133 IP/ 105 k/ 55 walks/ 14 hr/ 1.602 whip/ 4.39 era
Shields
24/ 125 IP/ 104 k/ 38 walks/ 18 hr/ 1.436 whip/ 4.84 era

About the same k and hit numbers, but Garza walked a bit more guys. Garza was more susceptible to the long ball so even though he had a lower whip he had a higher era.

If you look at their minor league stats you will also see that Garza far outshines Shields. This may be due somewhat to playing in college, but Garza still flew through the minors with stats of 2.88 era/ 1.09 whip/ 10.06 k/9/ 4.02 k/bb in three seasons. Shields' numbers are 3.68 era/ 1.25 whip/ 8.02 k/9/ 3.6 k/bb in five seasons.

These stats show that Garza could end up being better than Shields, or even Kaz. I wouldn't relegate him to third starter just yet. Maybe in the rotation, but not talent-wise.

by rglass44 on Jan 25, 2008 2:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Most Important Ray?

Do you think the Rays could have traded Delmon for Hughes with the Yanks getting Santana?

by websterjtc on Jan 25, 2008 2:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Most Important Ray?

No. I don't think the Yankees would have been willing to trade Hughes within the division, and the same can probably be said for the Rays with Delmon.

by vtcub on Jan 25, 2008 3:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Most Important Ray?

I think he was talking a 3 team trade, with Delmon and change going to the Twins, Santana going to the Yanks, and Hughes and Bartlett and change going to the Rays. Not sure it would have worked though. Doubt the Yanks would have wanted to trade Hughes in the division, or that the Rays want the Yanks to get Santana for that matter. But, it might have looked like:

Twins get:
Delmon Young
Brendan Harris
Melky Cabrera
Alan Horne
Dellin Betances

Rays get:
Phil Hughes
Jason Bartlett

Yankees get:
Johan Santana
Jason Pridie

Nutshell: Rays make the same trade out but get Hughes instead of Garza and Morlan. Yanks make the same offer as what they had on the table, but get Santana plus a new 4th outfielder. Twins get a better haul than what they got from us (Melky is a huge upgrade over Pridie, and Horne could be useful down the line), and get the bat they wanted (yeah, Hughes and Young are rated pretty similarly, but based on what went on everywhere else, it seems like the Twins just like Young better than Hughes.)

On the minus side, the Rays get a riskier deal (Hughes = more upside, but way more injury risk), the Twins remain stuck with Garza (who I guess they weren't too keen on), and the Yankees can be paranoid that Hughes doesn't get hurt and burns the Yanks in the long run.

Probably too many moving parts to have actually happened, but it's feasible.

by Brickhaus on Jan 25, 2008 7:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Most Important Ray?

yes i was thinking of something like that.

by websterjtc on Jan 26, 2008 5:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Most Important Ray?

The deal wouldn't have happened because young pitching is more prized than young hitting, the Yanks didn't have an immediate need for Delmon, and maybe not a long term one given 2 top OF prospects hitting AA this season.

Hey RJ, didn't we also have a pool on Delmon's stats for '07 preseason? Maybe you could dig that back up for those of us that participated, along with the guess on team wins that I don't recall being reviewed.

I don't agree with Garza being the critical guy either. I think you're placing too much emphasis on the stadium deal's immediacy. It's taking the Fish forever to put their package together - the Rays process is just getting started, and I haven't seen any indication that the state of Fla. is a big supporter of stadium issues. Your premise that a winning team and 3rd place is required to develop momentum might be asking too much. Getting out of last and setting a team wins mark should be good enough to keep the momentum going, and both are much more likely.

I know all here are fired up, but the Rays were 17 games behind Toronto last season, when the Jays offense was devasted by injuries and poor performance by a number of key players. And their pitching top to bottom was far superior, and they have BJ Ryan coming back probably by June who missed the whole season. I still see Toronto as a better team overall. As always injury will play a big part - it killed the Sox in 2006, perhaps cost the Yanks the division in 2007. The Rays were pretty unscathed - but there's a lot of luck in this part of the equation.

Only Baltimore in the division is regressing on paper. And the Rays have really made only 2 significant moves - Garza and Percival. There are risks here, young players can regress, or struggle in their early majors days. It's not a straight upward trend guaranteed. Hence I still see the Rays in 4th, and in the 70's in wins. But that's still represents good progress and shouldn't be sniffed at - it's a good thing!

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 25, 2008 5:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Most Important Ray?

I should add Bartlett to the significant moves, that was an omission on my part. But I think his addition is a bit overstated here. Yes his solid defense will help - offensively he's a bit of a question. The Rays don't have any pitchers expected to be big contributors with GB ratios over 1.15 last season (Howell 1.77 and Balfour 1.38 were, Shields and Garza at 1.11, Jax at 1.14. No one else over 1.00). This just isn't a GB generating staff.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 25, 2008 5:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Most Important Ray?

Middle infielders also get to line drives, not just grounders. That's where the major difference is anyway.

One way or the other, it's about a 30 run defensive swing from Harris to Bartlett. I doubt his bat will account for 30 fewer runs.

by Brickhaus on Jan 25, 2008 7:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Most Important Ray?

I don't see how you can suggest that plays on line drives are so significant. They are the balls by far with the highest percentage of hits, and occur with a frequency less than 1/2 of groundballs.

And I don't know where you're getting a 30 run defensive difference. The more significant difference may lie in those innings Zobrist and Wilson got (nearly 1/2 of total), but Harris' RZT wasn't so far off that of Bartlett, his out of zone play count wasn't far removed on an innings played basis, and his FPct was slightly better. The big difference is that Bartlett had many more chances than the Rays SS - that's a product of the pitchers, and now Bartlett is playing behind the Rays pitchers where he'll get fewer chances (less balls in zone). And Garza (1.11 GB ratio) is replacing the innings of the 2 highest GB rate starters the Rays had last season, Fossum (1.28) and Howell (1.77) - plus Seo, a FB guy at 0.85.

An interesting sidebar from the THT numbers... Why would Zobrist be carried as a utility IF. He was last among AL SS in RZR, and he didn't hit a lick.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 26, 2008 8:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rays!

Jim Callis sweats them! Has them as the #1 farm system and a team to reckon with in '10!

http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/01/25/q-a-with-baseball-america-jim-callis/

by ET90210 on Jan 25, 2008 3:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Garza has filthy stuff but has a ways to go

Call me crazy but I think all 3 of our starters project out to be #1's through #3's although you can make a reasonable case that Kaz bottom is already at a #2. It's wouldn't surprise me much to see that Garza is the best of the 3 down the road. Of course that doesn't mean Garza would be the Rays' #1 with Davis, McGee, and Price on the way. This is a great group of young pitching.

by ttnorm on Jan 25, 2008 11:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

hey RJ i got your back!

matt garza will be huge not just for this season but the rays future period. because last year after shields and kazmir it was most likely a three game losing streak until sonny stepped in and won sometimes, but with garza they will be able to pull off some big winning streaks with these young top starting pitchers they have and not having to rush the top three pitching prospects they have, so without garza they are almost the same rotation as last year except with a better sonny, but he cant step in as the number three pitcher and be successful.

by RayOfHope on Jan 26, 2008 8:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs