Top 30 Prospects: #18 Justin Ruggiano/#17 Josh Butler

The top 30 rolls on today with Justin Ruggiano and Josh Butler. By the way, if there's any feature or anything you'd like to see regarding the minors or prospects, please e-mail me or leave it in a comment. I have some ideas I've been kicking around, but I'm always looking for more. Ruggiano and Butler are after the jump.

As always, you can find a running list at the bottom of this post.

#18 - Justin Ruggiano, OF
Ruggiano's name was being tossed around early on as a possible replacement for the departed Delmon Young, but the signing of Cliff Floyd and the likely rotation between Floyd, Rocco Baldelli, and Jonny Gomes means Ruggiano will start 2008 back in AAA Durham.

Of course, hitting in the minor leagues has never really been a problem for Ruggiano. Drafted in the 25th round out of Texas A&M by the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2004, he hit his way to AA barely a year after he signed. As a 23-year old, he was part of the Jacksonville Suns championship team in 2005 and helped them win the 1st-half division title in 2006. A short while longer, he was sent to Tampa Bay to complete the Seo/Navarro-Hendrickson-Hall trade, and was assigned to Jacksonville's chief rival, Montgomery. So Ruggiano helped Montgomery to a 2nd-half division title, a playoff series win over Jacksonville, and an eventual Biscuits championship.

Ruggiano was almost able to be a part of another championship team in 2007, but Durham fell just short. That shouldn't diminish Ruggiano's season at all, as he hit 29 doubles, 20 home runs, and stole 26 bases, earning a brief cup of coffee in Tampa Bay in September.

Despite his gaudy minor league numbers, there are concerns about his bat. His hitting tools as well as his speed are above average, but none grade out as plus. He's always had a high BABIP, but his 2007 production was no doubt in part the result of an unsustainable .415 in-play average. Add to that the fact that Ruggiano strikes out a ton(151 in 482 at-bats), and his AAA numbers don't project to the majors as much as you'd think.

He played in CF two of the three games he started at the end of the season, and can play it in a pinch, but he's played most of his career at the corner outfield positions and profiles there in the future. His good work ethic and his strong AAA numbers mean he can probably sneak onto a major-league roster someday, but his slightly limited tool set will likely relegate him to 4th outfielder status.

#17 - Josh Butler, RHP
Talk about a tale of two seasons. Butler had arguably the best numbers of a very talented Columbus Catfish staff, but got called up to Vero Beach toward the end of June and simply got rocked, missed nearly a month of starts, came back and was slightly more effective.

The University of San Diego product was a surprise 2nd-rounder in 2006, as his draft stock had been falling in concert with his productivity, which sparked concerns over his durability. At his best, Butler throws a low-90s fastball with good sinking actions as well as two serviceable breaking pitches and a changeup. But something really got out of whack in Vero Beach: In 49 innings there, he allowed 9 homeruns. In his previous 357 innings(combined college and pro), he allowed a total of 13.

Before the 2006 draft, BaseballAmerica mentioned that a taxing delivery might be to be blame for his decline over the course of his junior year. The report was that he didn't incorporate his lower body enough, and that's practically inviting an arm injury. Judging from the poor 2nd-half statistics and the time missed, I'd say the concerns over his delivery are as alive as ever. Part of the decline can be chalked up to being promoted a level, but the sharp HR rate increase makes me think it's something else, such as not finishing on his delivery and leaving more balls up.

2007 was the second straight year Butler underwhelmed toward the end. I can probably be accused of saying this too much, but I think it applies to Butler perhaps more than anyone: I think he should make a move to the bullpen. If it is a durability issue, limiting his innings could help. Also, if efforts are made to clean up his delivery, pitching in shorter spurts might allow him to better focus on incorporating those changes.

Then again, perhaps his poor finish was a result of the injury(I can't for the life of me find out why he missed those 3-4 starts). He was dominant in his final outing(7 innings, 2 hits, 7 strikeouts), so it might be best to see if a fully healthy Butler can be successful in Vero Beach as a starter. Either way, VB is almost certain to be where he opens 2008, and he's still got plenty to prove.
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#17 - Josh Butler, RHP
#18 - Justin Ruggiano, OF
#19 - Heath Rollins, RHP
#20 - Mike McCormick, C
#21 - Matt Walker, RHP
#22 - Sergio Pedroza, OF
#23 - Reid Fronk, OF
#24 - Alex Cobb, RHP
#25 - Elliot Johnson, 2B
#26 - Nevin Ashley, C
#27 - Rhyne Hughes, 1B
#28 - Jon Barratt, LHP
#29 - Chris Nowak, 1B
#30 - Wade Townsend, RHP