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DRB Roster Odds

After the jump we examine each of the 50+ players invited to spring training's chances of making the 25 man roster.

Star-divide

Rotation

LHP Scott Kazmir- No need to expand on this one - the question is whether he pitches like first half Kazmir or second half Kazmir.

RHP James Shields- The new millionare, hopefully he's underpaid for his performance this year.

RHP Matt Garza- No doubt that Garza is our third starter, has some pressure on him after being acquired for Delmon Young.

RHP Andrew Sonnanstine- After the top three Sonnanstine is the best bet to make the rotation, I think he's a lock.

RHP Edwin Jackson- Can't be sent down, but apparently was shopped around this off-season.

RHP Jason Hammel- Out of options as well, not too much to prove in Durham anyhow, probably deserves a chance.

RHP Jeff Niemann- Has an option left and needs to work on durablility issues before joining rotation.

RHP Wade Davis- Minor league camp.

LHP Jake McGee- Minor league camp.

LHP David Price- Maybe in September.

RHP Chris Mason- Minor league camp.

Bullpen

CP Troy Percival- Not much to say here, he's our closer for the next two seasons if healthy.

SU Al Reyes- Was second half due to injury or sudden talent drop?

SU Dan Wheeler- Should bounce back after horrible 2007.

LHP J.P. Howell- Will battle for the lefty reliever spot.

LHP Kurt Birkins- Will battle for the lefty reliever spot.

RHP Juan Salas- Has an option left, one of the better relievers last year.

RHP Grant Balfour- Probably an odd man out.

RHP Scott Dohmann- Showed flashes.

RHP Gary Glover- Could be the team's long reliever, hopefully isn't placed into high leverage situations.

RHP Chad Orvella- Out of options.

RHP Scott Munter- Won't make team out of spring, but a good low key move.

RHP Calvin Medlock- One of the first in line at Durham.

LHP James Houser- Still serving suspension.

RHP Mitch Talbot- One of the first in line at Durham.

RHP Jae Kuk Ryu- One of the first in line to be designated for assignment.

Catchers

Dioner Navarro- Hopes to build off strong second half.

Mike DiFelice- Veteran + defense = roster spot.

Shawn Riggans- Not dependable.

Hector Gimenez- Durham bound.

John Jaso- Minor league camp.

Infield
1B Carlos Pena- Breakout and contract in hand, time to prove doubters wrong.

2B Akinori Iwamura- New position, hopefully same Aki.

SS Jason Bartlett- Defensive wizard.

3B Joel Guzman / Willy Aybar- Nothing is more fun than a good ol' platoon.

3B Evan Longoria- Needs help to make roster.

SS Reid Brignac- Minor league camp.

SS Ben Zobrist- Will compete for reserve infielder role.

SS Andy Cannizaro- Will compete for reserve infielder role.

2B Elliot Johnson- Minor league camp, might get designated for assignment

Outfield
LF Carl Crawford- Not much to say.

CF B.J. Upton- Will be around here soon.

RF Rocco Baldelli- Can he stay healthy finally?

RF Jonny Gomes- Will platoon with Floyd / Rocco.

RF Cliff Floyd-Will platoon with Gomes / Rocco

RF Justin Ruggiano- One of the first in line at Durham.

CF Fernando Perez- One of the first in line at Durham.

OF Jon Rodriguez- Insurance policy.

OF Chris Richard- Vet presence in Durham.

OF Jon Weber- Vet presence in Durham.

0 recs | Comment 23 comments

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Re: DRB Roster Odds
Nice.

We have some really tough choices in the bullpen and I hope we find an upgrade over ancient DiFelice before the end of spring training.  Not that backup catcher is terribly important, but he'd be the second-oldest catcher in the majors (one month younger than Brad Ausmus) and he's never been anything more than adequate even in his prime.

by RATW on Jan 26, 2008 1:36 PM EST   0 recs

Re: DRB Roster Odds
DiFelice being that old is a bit amazing, seems like just yesterday he was wearing the rainbow.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 26, 2008 8:30 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: DRB Roster Odds
Nice job RJ.  I really like the icons and layout of this list.

The "maybe" and "unlikely" spots of Grant Balfour and Shawn Riggans are the two players I'd really like to see get some playing time and compete for spots on the team.  

by pcbredemeier on Jan 26, 2008 1:38 PM EST   0 recs

Thanks
Pat did something similar two years ago, I wanted to break it back out before spring came around.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 26, 2008 4:55 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: DRB Roster Odds

hey RJ, rotoworld claims that Garza is under control for six more years. Can that be true?

"Garza projects as a long-term No. 2 starter, and as a nice bonus, he's still under control for six years, while Young is under control for five. Bartlett is four years away from free agency."

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=4214

by websterjtc on Jan 26, 2008 1:44 PM EST   0 recs

Re: DRB Roster Odds
Yes Garza has 6 more years until FA.

by ttnorm on Jan 26, 2008 2:21 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: DRB Roster Odds
even though he has had quite a bit of action in the last two years?

by websterjtc on Jan 26, 2008 2:28 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: DRB Roster Odds
His service time is under 1 year (149 days exactly) according to COTS.

by ttnorm on Jan 26, 2008 2:34 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: DRB Roster Odds
thanks, that's a cool site!

by websterjtc on Jan 26, 2008 4:10 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: DRB Roster Odds
The best competition would come out of the infield. There are three guys competing for thirdbase that all are young and have the power potential for that position. Guzman should start if not Longoria.
 

by llraysfan on Jan 26, 2008 2:08 PM EST   0 recs

Re: DRB Roster Odds
Any chance Dale Thayer gets a look?

by Tom Marven on Jan 26, 2008 2:49 PM EST   0 recs

Re: DRB Roster Odds
He might get an invite to camp, or at least minor league camp, but I doubt he'd make the team.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 26, 2008 2:51 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: DRB Roster Odds
I see Orvella as the more likely DFA candidate than Ryu, probably even more likely than Johnson. There's about a million 27 year old AAA righty relievers out there - a waiver claim isn't very likely, and what would be the big deal anyway.

I'm not sure Reyes suffered a "sudden talent drop". Let's remember this is a 37 year old guy who didn't pitch 30 innings in the majors but once this decade. Yes he had a nice season in 2005 with the Cards, and was hurt in 2006. And his numbers in the minors have been good in that time - but he's no prospect. How he'll perform as a setup guy will be interesting. The HR's could be a problem if he comes in with runners on, but a good WHIP and K rate offer promise. Is it a sure thing that Percy's the closer and Al's getting bumped? I could see going either way there, but Maddon does have the Angel connection.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 26, 2008 4:48 PM EST   0 recs

Re: DRB Roster Odds
"Is it a sure thing that Percy's the closer and Al's getting bumped?"

Yes.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 26, 2008 4:50 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: DRB Roster Odds
And I too would like to see Riggans get a shot at the job. That he's been hurt shouldn't count so hard against him. He might not be dependable, but DeFelice is dependably mediocre at his very best.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 26, 2008 4:52 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: DRB Roster Odds
i am pretty sure Orvella has one option left.

He used an option in 2006 and 2006 but the best I can tell he DID NOT use one in 2005. He was not on the 40-man roster until he was called up in May and he was never sent back to the minors after being called up. you can only use up an option if you are in the minors while on the 40-man roster, and it cant be retroactive.

He was not added to the 40-man roster prior to the season. that was the year Hammel, Stokes and Seddon were added.

The Revolution will begin soon...

by Devil Ray Guevara on Jan 26, 2008 5:04 PM EST   0 recs

Re: DRB Roster Odds
The fact that Garza has 6 more years before he is a FA and Delmon Young has 5 more years before he is a FA seems well overlooked by everyone.

by websterjtc on Jan 26, 2008 5:43 PM EST   0 recs

Re: DRB Roster Odds
Nice job. Sonny will probably make the rotation, but I'm not sure he's a lock.

By Lancaster's count, 52 players are invited to ST. Your list has 50 names. Who's missing?

by Frode on Jan 26, 2008 6:20 PM EST   0 recs

Re: DRB Roster Odds
RJ has 51 - Guzman and Aybar share a line as well as a position.

Lancaster was probably adding the 12 NRI's to the 40 man roster - but there are only 39 on the roster at present. Everybody knows writers can't count.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 26, 2008 7:00 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: DRB Roster Odds
Balfour was the one bright spot out of the pen last year.. he was the only one that did not make me feel like I had to vomit while he was warming up..

It sucks hes prob going to be replaced but understandable and I am happy the RP and the upgrade.

by Thomasutra on Jan 26, 2008 7:13 PM EST   0 recs

Re: DRB Roster Odds
i think that balfour will make the team because he is a strike out pitcher and the rest of the bullpen im not so sure about them besides salas,reye,wheeler,and of course percy so i think he makes the team.

by RayOfHope on Jan 26, 2008 8:02 PM EST   0 recs

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