Too Much G-Love

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 27, 2008 2:27 PM EST

Lancaster's Sunday Tampa Tribune offering:

When this year's camp officially opens on Valentine's Day, Hickey will have a closer with a World Series ring in Troy Percival backed by Reyes, Glover and Dan Wheeler. That quartet alone should make a significant difference.

One of those four relievers does not fit in, let's look at the WPA (Win Probability Added) and pLI (Leverage Index per Plate Appearance) of each last year:

Player WPA / pLI
Wheeler -0.35 / 1.61
Glover -0.2 / 0.93
Reyes 0.98 / 1.67
Percival 0.94 / 0.52

We've established a few times that Wheeler's 2007 was in large part a fluke, and I'd expect him to bounce back, but otherwise Glover's entrance simply meant he was actually decreasing the chances of the Rays winning that game. Using the Leverage Index rating we see that Glover's outings usually were in more relaxed situations than everyone minus Percival who acted as a middle reliever last year for the Cardinals.

Glover had a decent enough season last year, but can we please go without mentioning him as a lock or in the same company as Wheeler, Reyes, and Percival?

Other notes that Lancaster adds: Niemann looks to be in better shape, a number of Rays are all ready at the Naimoli Complex working out, Aybar will wear 16, Longoria will wear 3, and a lengthy piece on Jim Hickey's thoughts on the pen.

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Comments

Re: Too Much G-Love

Well said!

Glover should never see the ball after the fifth inning until he can show that he can at least be a league average reliever. He is Brian Meadows with 5 MPH more on the fastball.

by ttnorm on Jan 27, 2008 2:36 PM EST reply actions

Re: Too Much G-Love

Glover allows too many baserunners and has extreme flyball tendencies. Those 2 are never a good mixture. I'll put the ball in Balfour's hand any day of the week over G-Lover.

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by UCFKnights on Jan 27, 2008 3:05 PM EST reply actions

Re: Too Much G-Love

To be fair here - and I'm far froma Glover fan - the Rays didn't sign him to a $1 mil+ contract to stash him in Durham. Clearly they think he has value relative to the options. They would have non-tendered him (maybe they should have) if they thought they had better options. His salary alone makes him a lock for the Opening Day pen.

And what has Balfour proven to date? A better K rate and GB ratio, but control is still an issue.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 27, 2008 6:58 PM EST reply actions

Re: Too Much G-Love

I think you pretty much nailed why people think Balfour > Glover.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 27, 2008 7:32 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Too Much G-Love

I don't disagree - I think Balfour has a better shot at contributing in the long run. But if he doesn't get his control, he isn't the guy. If he does, hope Glover is in some demand midseason.
But I didn't take the issue as a long term one, but an immediate roster concern.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 28, 2008 5:39 PM EST up reply actions

my boy niemann

my favorite choice for the #5 pitcher in the rotation jeff niemann seems to be in better shape which is why i hope they trade edwin jackson and give the job to niemann who deserves a spot in the rotation this spring.

by RayOfHope on Jan 27, 2008 7:44 PM EST reply actions

Bedard Traded

Seems the deal is done. To the M's

http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/01/27/report-mariners-trade-for-bedard/

by ET90210 on Jan 27, 2008 8:12 PM EST reply actions

Re: Too Much G-Love

I believe everyone knows what to expect from Balfour, Glover, and Wheeler. The questions in the pen for me are:

1-will the early season 07' Al Reyes show up, or the one that got pounded and inconsistant late in the year?

2-How well will Percival pitch and will he hold up?

3-What is the master plan (delving into the future of 08') if Perciaval is ineffective as well as Reyes? Both these scenarios are more than possible and are likely. Who will get the call as closer? Wheeler? Who will take their places if ineffective or injured? Neimann, Davis, Townsend, Hammel, Price?

The "PLAN" is what I'd like to hear from Andrew Friedman if these scenarios com into play.

Unlike many posting on this bog, I would like to see Edwin Jackson remain a Ray though it does seem unlikely. I also have seen Neimann and he has slimmed down considerably. Look for Neimann in the #5 slot as an earlier post above stated.

It sure is nice to have pitching, isn't it?

BBG-1

by BaseballGuru on Jan 28, 2008 10:32 AM EST reply actions