Keith Law and Kevin Goldstein Unveil Their Top 100s

by Kevin Gengler on Jan 31, 2008 1:39 PM EST Comment 9 comments

Keith Law of ESPN/Scouts Inc. and Kevin Goldstein of BaseballProspectus both released their top 100 prospect lists today. Click "read more" to find out where the Rays ranked, as well as get their answers on a few Rays-related questions that each fielded in their respective chats.

Keith Law's list can be found here. Goldstein's is here, and you can find my own top 50(collaborated with a friend) here.

I decided to do it by player, with the three rankings in parenthesis. First is Keith Law's ranking, second is Kevin Goldstein's, and last is mine. Again, keep it mind the first two ranked 100, the third ranked only 50.

Evan Longoria: (1) (3) (2)

Desmond Jennings: (11) (18) (33)

Wade Davis: (15) (15) (16)

David Price: (16) (6) (11)

Jake McGee: (26) (40) (12)

Reid Brignac: (49) (25) (25)

Fernando Perez: (72) (--) (--)

Jeremy Hellickson: (75) (--) (--)

John Jaso: (78) (--) (--)

First, I'm absolutely shocked that Goldstein doesn't have Hellickson in his top 100, even more shocked that he has McGee at 40, and even more shocked that he has no Rays after McGee at 40(I thought maybe Niemann could sneak on as well).

Likewise, I was surprised that each had ranked Desmond Jennings so highly. Also, it's nice to see Perez and Jaso getting support from a guy like Keith Law.

BaseballAmerica unveils their top 100 sometime next week, and I'll be back with analysis of that then.

Chat questions will be edited into this post as they appear.

doog7642 (Blaine, MN): What makes Franklin Morales so superior to Jake McGee? I'm not insinuating that he isn't -- I'd just like to hear you contrast the two.

Kevin Goldstein: Is there some kind of Jake McGee fan club that I'm unaware of, and if so, have they called for some kind of fatwa against me? I have a million McGee questions. And while I say this alot about guys, I'll say it again here -- I have McGee as the No. 40 prospect in baseball -- how is that an insult?

Now let's compare him to Morales. Both are lefties, both have plus-plus velocity. After that, Morales easily wins on better breaking ball, and wins again with better changeup. There are a number of people who think McGee's limited arsenal make him a reliever in the end, and I get no such opinions when talking to scouts about Morales. That's the big difference.

Daveferno (Parts Unknown): What are your thoughts on Desmond Jennings upside? What player past or present would you compare him to?

Kevin Goldstein: The easy to make comparisoin is Carl Crawford, and it's pretty accurate.

Jonathan (Tampa, FL): How long before John Jaso moves from behind the plate?

SportsNation Keith Law: (2:07 PM ET ) I'm not ruling him out as a catcher yet.

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Re: Keith Law and Kevin Goldstein Unveil Their Top

5 in the top 25 on Goldstein's list is very impressive. i don't understand however the wildly different rankings of Brignac & McGee b/t the two lists. having McGee at 40 seems a bit ridiculous, unless he knows something everyone else doesn't. or maybe doesn't know something everyone else does.

by davidsmarch on Jan 31, 2008 5:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Keith Law and Kevin Goldstein Unveil Their Top

There is a difference between being rated #12 and #40 but I agree with Goldstein that it is a lot more subtle than people are making it out to be.

I don't get the passion that some folks (not you David) put into these rankings. They have zero impact on the Rays winning games.

by ttnorm on Jan 31, 2008 8:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Keith Law and Kevin Goldstein Unveil Their Top

Amen to that norm.

Everyone should go back and take a look at BA's top 100's from 2003 and 2002. Fully 1/3 of the top 25 guys aren't in the majors, and it gets worse as you go down the list. The link:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/26983.html

Minors guys don't come with guarantees - many succeed, many fail. And we're not talking the dogs here, but likely the top 3 to 6 prospects in each org in any given year, just 5 years later. Lower minors guys are often highly rated based on 1 superior skill - fastball or power or speed - with the assumption they could develop. Unfortunately it doesn't always happen. Hence Goldstein's concern about McGee - which I've seen RJ voice here too - about his control or secondary offerings, leaving him as a reliever. Which could still be a good thing.

Hell, these rankings drive me nuts sometimes too - take NY's Kennedy. He may have put up the best numbers of almost any pitcher in the minors and went from A ball to the majors and a September playoff race in his first full pro season. But no big fastball, so he's a #3 and that's it. Hey, his performance in the show was just off that of Buchholz's - no no-no though.

Hey - these guys may well be right. But as norm suggests, ultimately it's majors performance that counts. And a top 50 prospect is just fine - hell, Bedard was #90 in 2002, missed 2003 with TJ, then debuted in '04. Johan Santana never appeared - was a Rule V pick in 2000.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 31, 2008 9:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Keith Law and Kevin Goldstein Unveil Their Top

By the way Mr. Gengler, not sure Carlos Gomez should qualify - had over 45 days of non - Sept. service time. Please place Austin Jackson in his stead. LOL.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 31, 2008 9:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Keith Law and Kevin Goldstein Unveil Their Top

Mister? To quote you; since when are you so professional?

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 31, 2008 9:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Service time

Most, if not all major prospect sites don't take into account service time. They just use the 130 ab's/50IP mark as a barometer. That's why Gomez is eligible in most places.

by Tyler on Feb 1, 2008 7:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Service time

The MLB standard is what I was referring to - I know most analysts ignore that standard, BA explicitly so.

I was just looking for some love for one of my guys.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Feb 1, 2008 2:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Keith Law and Kevin Goldstein Unveil Their Top

And on top of that, look at the huge discrepancies between different analysts. For example, Law has Lars Anderson at #28 while Goldstein has him at #100. Goldstein likes Horne at #67 while he isn't in Law's top 100 at all. And on and on.

It is comforting to see your team's players ranked high, but as you said, it really means nothing until they perform in the majors.

by bobr on Jan 31, 2008 10:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs