Upton/Longoria Revisited
by R.J. Anderson on Oct 14, 2008 12:00 AM EDT
62 comments
A while ago, perhaps June, I made a post stating that the Upton/Longoria combination would soon be the best in baseball. Since then we learned that Upton was playing with one arm and that Evan is even better than expected. Just how good were they? Well using Justin's Total Value (offensive and defensive) numbers I compared them to David Wright and Jose Reyes:
Rays Combo: 82 runs/8.2 wins
Mets Combo: 118 runs/11.8 wins
Pretty impressive, considering injuries and age (23.5 average for the Rays, 25 for the Mets) plus those numbers are league and park adjusted. So the Rays have the potential for a more devastating combination than Reyes/Wright for far less money and at equally important positions (although you could argue that a good SS is more important than a good CF, hi Tim Beckham) and that's pretty damn cool.
Now, they just need to re-sign Upton, which as you should be able to guess is one of my top three off-season priorities, but that's for later.
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the kids are happy the perfect picture
gym star razor the fruit of my labor
and i walk with a glow its like the Lord shown favor
these bitches fake like the holes on flavor
but i don’t mind spendin all it is is paper YES
by daveh33 on Oct 14, 2008 12:22 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Utley's not really a young(er) player anymore, but they combine for 124.
by R.J. Anderson on Oct 14, 2008 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sizemore/Lee is well over 140 haha...
Ludwick/Pujols is ridiculous.
Would you count Markakis/BRob as a young pair?
by lailaihei on Oct 14, 2008 6:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Roberts is kinda old, no?
Once one of the pair gets over 28 I’m weary on calling them “young”.
by R.J. Anderson on Oct 14, 2008 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Braun/Prince
Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Oct 14, 2008 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can we sign Upton?
I thought he was pretty set on going to FA as early as he can?
Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Oct 14, 2008 7:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Could be that suddenly playing for a contender would change his mind.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
by hazel on Oct 14, 2008 8:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How about trade CC and give Beej his money?
by walkoffwalk on Oct 14, 2008 9:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
his, meaning the money CC was due (if it wasn't clear)
by walkoffwalk on Oct 14, 2008 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If we can only keep one
then yes to this a million times. I’m still holding out hope that playing for a contender will alleviate some of CC’s attitudinal issues and also convince BJ to re-sign.
by NY Tyler on Oct 14, 2008 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Miggy and Granderson are in the discussion, too
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 14, 2008 10:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Upton
How many years until arbitration, abd by extension FA. If we signed him to a 6 year deal how many years of FA would that buy? In 6 years he’ll be 30, and still be able to get one monster deal.
by rglass44 on Oct 14, 2008 10:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
From the MLBPA website
A player with three or more years of service, but less than six years, may file for salary arbitration. In addition, a player can be classified as a “Super Two” and be eligible for arbitration with less than three years of service. A player with at least two but less than three years of Major League service shall be eligible for salary arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and he ranks in the top 17 percent in total service in the class of Players who have at least two but less than three years of Major League service, however accumulated, but with at least 86 days of service accumulated during the immediately preceding season.
So, let’s look at BJ’s service time. He played 45, 50, 129, and 145 games. So, I am assuming that he will be arbitration eligible after next season. This would have him eligible for FA in 4 years. So, a 6 year extension buys out 2 years of FA. So, at 28 he’d be FA eligible. He’d likely want at least 6 years. That would put him at 34 when the contract is over. He doesn’t seem to stand to make that much more money by passing up 6 years now. He can get a payday a year early, play for a team that looks poised to compete into the future, and still get a huge payday in 6 years.
by rglass44 on Oct 14, 2008 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so you're saying
10 years at 140M is about right. Wait, actually I’m saying that. I think you structure it much like Longo’s contract.
Team 3 = 3
Arb 1 = 4
Arb 2 = 5
Arb 3 = 7
FA1 = 9
FA2 = 12
FA3 = 15
FA4 = 17
FA5 = 20
FA6 = 25
OK so this comes in at 10 yr 114M. We get him tied up for his entire prime and in the year 2019 $25M will be what a lot of guys are making. The giant contracts at the end are also somewhat of a “thanks for playing” similar to Jordan’s ridic contracts at the end of his time with the Bulls. Most importantly you have Longoria, Upton, and Shields until at least 2014 with Garza and Aybar being the next longest tenured guys as they are not FA-eligible until 2013. Man I am so f’ing smart.
Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 14, 2008 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I forgot to Mention VJ until 2014 as well
VJ = Velociraptor Jesus
Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 14, 2008 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Make FAs 4, 5 and 6
option years with reasonable buyouts, and I think that might be doable on both sides. I suspect Upton would want more early though as an enticement to sign that kind of deal.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Oct 14, 2008 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tack on 1 mil to each of the first five years
Take 3 mill of the last, 1 off of FA3 and 1 off of FA5.
by kericr on Oct 14, 2008 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What I mean is
that it’s structured wrong. Since BJ has no ‘team’ seasons left, he’ll get more during his arb years and it would actually need to look more like (assuming it’s still 10 years, $117 million like is stated above):
Arb1: $3.5
Arb2: $5.5
Arb3: $7.5
Arb4: $9.0
FA1: $11.0
FA2: $13.0
FA3: $15.5
Opt1: $18 ($2M buyout)
Opt2: $18 ($4M buyout)
Opt3: $18 ($6M buyout)
That actually guarantees Upton $75M (assuming the buyouts are cumulative), which is a very big chunk of change, with a max value of $117. Not sure the team would enter that deal though, since it signals to future young players that they can get much more if they hold out from signing for a few years.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Oct 14, 2008 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Next year is a "team season"
I think it’d take more than 10/117 to get a deal done, though. That’s nothing.
by rglass44 on Oct 14, 2008 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, it's not
Because he’s super-2.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Oct 14, 2008 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you sure?
2.126 sounds pretty close to the line to me. I actually thought he had more service time than that though. Seems odd to me that someone who has spent the last two full seasons in the majors, plus decent chunks of two other seasons, wouldn’t be a super-2 (keeping in mind that his injury rehab time last year counts).
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Oct 14, 2008 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This would be the difference between accepting 'filthy rich' and holding out for 'filthy stinkin God-Damn rich'
If he really wants to hold out for A-Rod kind of money, then I guess it’s time for the scouts to get back to work and find the next BJ Upton.
by kericr on Oct 14, 2008 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the most likely is that we buy out 1-3 years FA
That way he still gets one more big payday, and we get his most useful years.
by rglass44 on Oct 14, 2008 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think we agree though that it is possible to get him signed and the numbers aren't as crazy as they might look
Craw making 12M next year OTH…
Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 14, 2008 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
However
considering that Upton is locked up for four more years anyway, if the Rays have cash reserves, I’d still rather see them make a legitimate offer for Adam Dunn or Pat Burrell.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Oct 14, 2008 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Give him a lifetime gold club membership at Mons
He’ll be all set.
by kericr on Oct 14, 2008 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i don't think it's an either/or
whatever money they offer BJ for his free agent years won’t be paid for a while. they’ll pay him arbitration-type money for the next four years either way.
if there’s money now, then spend it, but it’s not needed for BJ. if we’re talking about money in four years, I’d rather spend it on BJ, who is better and younger.
and i think Dunn/Burrell will be grossly overpaid given their lack of defensive value.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 14, 2008 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I should have stated that instead of hoping you could read minds.
The numbers might not be perfect, but I think the structure has the right idea.
Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 14, 2008 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Upton contract stuff and yeah
Name Service Options $Bonus 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Upton 1.126 1 4.6 0.39 Min ARB1 ARB2 ARB3
via
Some jerk put this together a while ago I highly recommend it.
Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 14, 2008 11:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I do not want to see them go to arbitration with Upton where they will trash him for 2 hours to an arbitrator about how lazy he is and then try to pretend it's okay after the hearing...
by walkoffwalk on Oct 14, 2008 11:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That's not how arbitration works
Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 14, 2008 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lopez said he would have never gone to arbitration if the Nationals had agreed to pay him at the midpoint, which was $5.05 million, but the team refused. According to Lopez, the team pointed out the negatives of his 2007 season — in which he hit .245 wit
lopez had a lot of negatives.
but, i remember someone saying how bad arbitration was for his psyche…maybe it was kazmir or granderson, but i don’t remember.
by walkoffwalk on Oct 14, 2008 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
why does the player have to be at arbitration? i didn't think they were.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 14, 2008 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what exactly goes on in arbitration, then?
by walkoffwalk on Oct 14, 2008 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It used to exclusively come down to 2 sides make an offer and the arber takes the midpoint.
For the most part it comes down to two things. The money that people at a similar position with similar numbers are putting up and the previous contract. For the most part the previous contract is always going to be $390,000 and then they would look at similar players. For Beej I would look at Granderson, Sizemore, et al…
Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 14, 2008 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sounds like someone has ex-wife issues...
by NY Tyler on Oct 14, 2008 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They won't go to arbitration
99% of the time they agree on a number before getting to arbitration.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Oct 14, 2008 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
idiot 1
Not so shocking if you followed the moribund front office since Sternberg assumed the reins. He just will not spend the dough needed to make the Rays playoff caliber. This team has the WORST RECORD IN BASEBALL. There are too many weaknesses besides pitching: 2B, SS, C, a decent DH. Not protecting Josh Hamilton was absolutely insane. And there’s no guarantee that those minor league pitchers will be effective in the majors. There’s too many holes to plug and El Cheapo doesn’t want to spend $$$. Imagine any other major league team not playing a .155 hitter only because of injury.
by rglass44 on Oct 14, 2008 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
idiot 2
He’s a callow owner with a lot of money he’s not willing to spend and no experience and little knowledge of his enterprise. He was in the TV booth tonight and actually made the statement that he would not trade the pitching in his organization for any other team’s. Dude, your team has baseball’s worst record and the players that have the toughest time jumping to the majors are pitchers.
by rglass44 on Oct 14, 2008 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good find
These are some of the bigger fans now I imagine. Good old Tampa/St. Pete some of the bandwagonest bandwagons that ever bandwagoned.
Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 14, 2008 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's right
We here in Largo don’t even know the term “bandwagon.”
by steve-o1285 on Oct 14, 2008 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OMG they never sop
This is pure gold.
by rglass44 on Oct 14, 2008 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That whole page of comments is chock full 'o fail.
Gold doesn’t begin to explain the comedic genius of that page.
by kericr on Oct 14, 2008 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brick, he's not a super-2. Again, reply doesn't work for me right now.
He is absolutely not a super-2. He spent one day to few on the roster to qualify for super-2 status. I remember, they called him up in 05 the day after he would have qualified to be a super-2. There were articles about it, I’ll link to it if I find it, but I’m 100% sure he won’t be a super-2.
Tools Whore
Sign Bonds!
by Tyler on Oct 14, 2008 1:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
OK
Not sure what 2005 would have to do with it though. To be super-2, you need:
- at least two but less than three years of Major League service
- at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season
- ranks in the top 17 percent in total service in the class of Players who have at least two but less than three years of Major League service, however accumulated
Considering he was up and down a bunch of times since then, there’s no way they would have known back in 2005 whether a day or two would affect super-two service time.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Oct 14, 2008 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I meant 2006. Mistyped.
Tools Whore
Sign Bonds!
by Tyler on Oct 14, 2008 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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