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Off-Day Prospecting

With the off-day today, I figured it was a good time to take a look at our future Rays.  This is my version of the Top-20 prospects in our organization.

 

 

Star-divide

1.  David Price- was the #1 overall pick in 2007.  You all know the story.  Mid-90's fastball that touches 98/99.  Devastating slider that reaches 90 and a change that needs work.  Stud.  Likely the #5 starter next year for the Rays.

2.   Tim Beckham- The 2008 #1 overall pick for the Rays.  His ceiling is sky high.  His actions are praised at SS.  He's got a very strong arm.  He was consistently the best player at showcase events he attended vs. elite high school competition.  He has drawn comparisons to BJ Upton at a similar age, although unlike Bossman, scouts seem sold on him sticking at SS.  His swing is raw and was being tweaked during the season and no doubt being worked on during instructs that are currently going on.  Despite the raw swing, fear not, his wrists are amazing, which should allow him, once the kinks are worked out to hit for above-average power.   He's going to be a good one.  Expect him to spend all of next year in Columbus. 

3.   Wade Davis- has a low-90's fastball with good life that he keeps down in the zone well.  His curve is his best pitch.  It's a true out pitch.  He also throws a cutter and a change-up.  However both pitches are inconsistent.  He struggles against lefties because of that.  Both pitches are developing and have the potential to be above-average pitches.  He will spend most of the year in AAA next season working on consistency with those pitches.

4.  Jeremy Hellickson- has solid raw stuff, but the real key to his success is his command.  He works the thirds of the plate well and his absurd K/BB ratios go to show that.  He has a fastball that sits in the low-90's touching 95, with an above-average curveball and an above-average change-up.  He doesn't have a true out pitch, but with his command, it hasn't hindered him.

5.   Reid Brignac- is a going to be a starter in the big leagues at SS for a long time.  It's really amazing how far he's come defensively.  Just a couple years ago many questioned his ability to stay at SS, now he's regarded as the best defensive SS in the International league.  He's got plus range, hands and arm.  That's enough to make you a starter in the big leagues right there (ask Jason Bartlett).  But he can hit too.  He's got well above-average power for a SS (average power overall, but that power is more valuable at the SS position).  He needs a little more work on his pitch selection, but that's not a major concern long term.  He'll start in AAA next year, but if he's not traded in the offseason, expect him to be pushing Jason Bartlett for the starting job sooner than later.

6.   Jeff Niemann-sits in the low-90's but can reach 98.  He has an awesome curve, average slider (this saddens me) and a splitter which is used as his change-up.  He doesn't warm up quickly enough to work out of the pen apparently (18minutes SRQ said? Can't remember) and works painfully slow.  But his stuff is good and should be a middle of the rotation starter.  Next year he'll either be on the roster or traded as he's out of options.  I expect him to be traded, but if Kaz really is hurt, he may be our #5 starter.

7.   Mitch Talbot-sits in the low-90's with a plus change-up and average curve.  Stat heads love him, scouts are meh.  He doesn't have great stuff, but his command is very solid.  He should be a middle of the rotation starter.  Will most likely work out of the pen because of the depth on our roster.  Should start next year with the big club.

8.   Jake McGee-had Tommy John surgery, out until the middle of 09'.  When healthy, he's got a devastating fastball that reaches 100 and sits at 94-96.  A very inconsistent curve that has potential.  His change also flashes above-average with sink and fade, but again, very inconsistent.  Most likely future reliever, at least on this team.

9.  Desmond Jennings-His stock has fallen, but man what a toolbox.  If he's healthy, he's  one of the better prospects in all of baseball, but back injuries scare me.  He's had a back, shoulder and leg injury in the last year.  When healthy, he was compared to CC.  He's got the speed, defense and even better, he's got great strike-zone judgment.  Injuries are what is holding him back.  We'll see.

10.   Matt Moore-Moore was a favorite of yAk of Raysbb.com.  I was skeptical of a guy who was repeating Princeton, wondering aloud why a good pitching prospect would repeat such a low league.  Well, it turns out I was wrong.  Moore is a lefty with a good 92-94 mph fastball touching 95.  A good, late breaking curve and a change-up with good tail on it.  That's a great start for such a young prospect.  He tightened up his command significantly and I wouldn't be shocked if he skipped HV next year and made his debut in full season ball. 

11. John Jaso-Everyone knows about Jaso.  The dude can hit.  Has great strike-zone judgment and can hit for some pop.  However seeing Michel Hernandez in a Rays uniform tells me the AFRO are far from sold on his catching ability.  I'm not buying he's that bad, but we'll see.  His caught stealing percentages have gotten better so he may be able to stick.  He's getting old and the Rays are going to have to do something with him soon.

12.   Nick Barnese-throws a hard, low-90's fastball that bores down causing hitters to pound the ball into the ground.  His curve an change aren't there yet, but that fastball is what's going to carry him anyway.  He has middle of the rotation potential and will definitely be in full season ball next year.

13.   Fernando Perez- I've never been that high on him until seeing him play.  I'm not sure he'll be a regular.  He strikes out a lot, but you cannot teach speed.  And this man has speed.  Lots and lots of speed.  Nando has a little pop and good plate discipline.  His outfield defense is plus.  His arm is minus.  I moved him up a lot after seeing him play.  I really, really like this guy and hope he's on the team next year.

14. Alex Cobb-is another ground ball pitcher.  His ceiling is limited, but he's got good command of his fastball (88-91), curve and splitter (which is his change-up). His stuff isn't special, but his ability to get ground balls at an extremely high rate makes him a very solid prospect.

15.   Heath Rollins-Has been compared to Kevin Slowey of the Twins because they both have less than stellar stuff and both went to Winthrop.  But Heath Rollins is no Kevin Slowey.  Kevin Slowey is a rich mans Andy Sonnanstine.  Heath's fastball tops out at about 91 and none of his offspeed stuff is above-average.  He does have pretty good command of his pitches and is likely a future middle reliever or back-end journeyman.  He could go Andy Sonnanstine on us, but it's unlikely.  Guys like that are rare.

16. Justin Ruggiano-dominated AAA this season, but looked overmatched at the plate in the big leagues.  It's not fair to write him off based on that, but he strikes out a lot and is not likely to hit for much of an average in the big leagues.  I know we hate average, but it matters when you're not a walks machine.  He's solid in the outfield, but his lack of a plus tool anywhere will likely limit him to a role player or fringe starter on a marginal team.

17. Kyle Lobstien-  Ceiling.  He's a tall lefty with projection in his frame.  Had he progressed like scouts had hoped, he would not have reached the Rays in the 2nd round.  He's all about projection.  He's shown a good curve and change-up.  How good those become likely depends on how much velocity he gains.  He sat at 87 much of the spring during his high school season.  He has touched 92 in the past.  If he gains velocity as expected, he could skyrocket up prospect charts.   Extra velocity will help tighten his breaking pitch, making him even better.

18. James Houser-pitched very in the beginning of the season.  However a knee injury really sapped his velocity.  By the end of the season he was only touching the mid-80's.  If he doesn't regain his velocity, he will not be a prospect, but at the end of last year, he was sitting in the upper-80's and touching 92.  As a lefty with solid command and a good breaking pitch, he can get by with that.  It all depends on health.

19.   Ryan Reid-absolutely obliterated the FSL, with a 15/1 K/BB ratio.  That ratio fell apart upon his promotion to AA.  His strike-out stuff was still there, but his command was not.  It could have been adjusting to the league or it could be that he was feasting on inexperienced hitters in High-A.  He's a reliever without a huge ceiling, but has an above-average fastball and slider.

20.  Ty Morrison-is a guy who might not hit for a while.  His only real present tool is his speed and he is fast.  He's got a good arm and plays a solid CF.  His swing is pretty, he's tall and lanky with a ton of room to fill out.  He's got pretty good raw power, however that hasn't shown up in games yet.  He will take a while to develop, but has the underlying tools to develop into a starter in the big leagues someday.

Honorable mention:

Ed Morlan RHP

KD Kang  OF

Reid Fronk OF/3B

Jake Jefferies C

Ryan Royster OF

 

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Solid list

Who knows if I’ll even make my own list this year, but my main quibbles:

- I like Hellickson better than Davis at this point. The more I watch him, the more I’m convinced he’s the next Doug Waechter.
- I’d have McGee a couple spots lower
- I’d flip Barnese and Moore
- I still like Fernando Perez better than you
- Only in the bizarro world of ‘guy x is younger so he must have more upside’ is Cobb a better prospect than Rollins. I realize almost everyone will have Cobb as a better prospect than Rollins, but Cobb doesn’t really have any projectability. He does have a nice sinker which might get him to the majors, but Rollins has three major league pitches and is another guy who’s getting a little underrated generally. Unfortunately, Rollins will probably need to be traded before he’ll make the majors.
- I wouldn’t have Morrison in my top 20. He’s in the exact same mold as every other player that scout has signed (super projectable, super athletic, not much baseball skills), and of the last 10 players that guy has signed, only Hammel and Royster have even come close to panning out (for failures, see McCormick, O’Malley, Fields, et al).
- When did Royster move to 1B? Did I just miss that one?

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Oct 15, 2008 8:44 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Royster didn't move to first, I don't know why I put that.

-I just really don’t like Rollins that much. I don’t like Cobb very much either. But I’ve got Cobb over Rollins because of the GB’s mainly.

-You’ve always like Nando better than everyone else. I had him 18th when I did this list in September. I’ve been really impressed.

-Morrison wasn’t in my Top-20 originally. I moved him up really just because I wanted to include him in this list. And I happen to like guys like that! One of them has to pan out eventually. Andy Lopez is another example of guys you’re talking about there. I liked him a lot too, so feel how you’d like about that.

-I’m on the Moore bandwagon. I really loved his scouting report.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Oct 15, 2008 8:58 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Your list is solid

It’s impossible for anyone to nail a prospect list except for Nostradamus.

www.citadel-insurance.com

by SeanDubbs on Oct 15, 2008 9:09 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thanks for the update

A bit early to put Beckham at #2?

Wish we had some big boppers down there

by sternfan1 on Oct 15, 2008 9:51 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not too early at all

Beckham really turned it on late in Princeton and with a full offseason of work, should be able to put up big numbers in Columbus next year.

www.raysbb.com

Yes, we really do have fans.

by killa3312 on Oct 15, 2008 10:58 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

With all the SP potential

and the young rotation already in place, one wonders why not give a Hellickson or Davis to get Bay

by sternfan1 on Oct 15, 2008 9:54 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

3 months ago called

told you to shut up

should I give them any message back?

by joeybw on Oct 15, 2008 10:45 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   2 recs

valid question

i wouldn’t be surprised if one is used to get a younger, cheaper, signed-for-longer, better-defender version of JBay this off-season, though.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 15, 2008 11:19 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What was the whole point of getting Bay?

I thought it was to make the playoffs, win the AL East, maybe win the AL, and increase our chances of winning a WS.

make playoffs – check
AL East champs – check
AL champs – ?
WS champs – ?

Looks like it was a great move to not make a move.

Why are we still talking about this?

by Sveet on Oct 15, 2008 11:34 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

To be fair... Bay would still be around next year as well

That said, Friedman basically got the trade done without trading those guys and was swooped in on very late.

Why trade away value like those two while only guaranteeing less that one and a half years of Bay? Especially if they thought (correctly) that they could get by without Bay.

by tallyray on Oct 15, 2008 5:53 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oh, and FWIW

I’d say that Hellickson’s change is an out pitch when he locates it.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Oct 15, 2008 11:11 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Love the list

Don’t have any big quibbles with it. I just love looking at it. As good as we are this year, we could be even better in the future. 1990s Braves looks more and more realistic every day.

by rglass44 on Oct 15, 2008 11:28 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I dont like Talbot that much

I wouldnt be him in the top 15 let alone top 10. this is how my list would go:

1. Price (obvious)
2. Beckham
3. Davis
4. Hellickson
5. Brignac
6. McGee (still is an excellent prospect)
7. Niemann
8. Jennings (would be top 5 if he could stay healthy)
9. Barnese
10. Jaso
11.Perez
12. Moore
13. Cobb
14. Royster (hoping he can right the ship soon)
15. Rollins
16. Talbot
17. Houser
18. Reid
19. Lobstein
20. Jefferies (guy has game)

im not a huge fan of older prospects.

by dannythegreat on Oct 15, 2008 12:07 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i'm in love with Talbot

obviously based 100% on his numbers. i have never seen him pitch and i really don’t know what i’m looking for most of the time when i do watch pitchers do their thing

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 15, 2008 12:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Chatted with Doug from

‘Yampa Bay prospects’

he said while picking the Top 10 pitchers is easy, finding top 10 position players a reach (batting wise)

by sternfan1 on Oct 15, 2008 12:44 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

this is an interesting question

i would say no in the bats vs. pitchers choice, because teams tend to rate pitchers by ERA instead of their underlying skills. there are always league-average pitchers ready to be had for little.

fielding, however, does come cheap, meaning you can get good positions players with good gloves and decent bats for a low price.

hitters tend to be more projectable more years down the road, too, meaning i’d rather have a hitter tied up in a contract than a pitcher, although i’m not sure how that ties into the question.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 15, 2008 8:10 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm not so sure...

I think it’s much easier to find an above average position player for a bargain price than a above average pitcher. I can’t do the research tonight but I’ll dig a little deeper.

by tallyray on Oct 15, 2008 11:07 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

speaking of him

he just got released by the cardinals

when you think .500 is the best a team can do and they are currently playing in the ALCS for a chance to advance to the WS, you have to stop and think that the future of that team is going to be amazing. GO TB RAYS!

by RaysOfHope on Oct 15, 2008 11:19 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

maybe a RH DH if they dont resign rocco?

when you think .500 is the best a team can do and they are currently playing in the ALCS for a chance to advance to the WS, you have to stop and think that the future of that team is going to be amazing. GO TB RAYS!

by RaysOfHope on Oct 15, 2008 11:21 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That's ideal.

But I’m saving my rosterbation for the off-season.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 15, 2008 11:24 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

the 1st around this time that i actually dont think about the offseason with this team

when you think .500 is the best a team can do and they are currently playing in the ALCS for a chance to advance to the WS, you have to stop and think that the future of that team is going to be amazing. GO TB RAYS!

by RaysOfHope on Oct 15, 2008 11:27 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

well i think about the offseason a little bit but not like in the past 6 years i have followed this team

when you think .500 is the best a team can do and they are currently playing in the ALCS for a chance to advance to the WS, you have to stop and think that the future of that team is going to be amazing. GO TB RAYS!

by RaysOfHope on Oct 15, 2008 11:32 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Carlos Pena!

If we are talking about non-roster pickups or free agents for $1MM or less, at least in terms of the Rays since 2006, they have made it look pretty easy to find league-average hitters on the scrap heap for virtually nothing from Greg Norton and Ty Wigginton to Carlos Pena to Eric Hinske (as long as we’re totally ignoring defense). I think they got B. Harris for nothing more than cash and of course there was G. Gross for a struggling lower-minor prospect. Dan Johnson is capable of league-average production as was Russ Branyan in ’06.

Our scrap pickups for pitching, at least based on results, haven’t been quite as successful unless you wanna include Balfour and Howell in the discussion.

by RATW on Oct 16, 2008 1:33 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Any chance we lose someone

Because of the insane SP depth could someone slide through and get taken in a Rule 5 at some point? THAT would suck.

by staplemaniac on Oct 15, 2008 3:31 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I doubt the front office would allow that to happen.

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans

BELIEVE in 08!

by SRQman on Oct 15, 2008 4:29 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

"18minutes SRQ said? Can't remember"

It was 18 minutes from when he got up till the moment he entered the game. That also had the Rays batting in between, so basically took him an inning. I was not watching to see if he was throwing the whole time though. Wish I could see him warm up again to do a better timing.

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans

BELIEVE in 08!

by SRQman on Oct 15, 2008 4:28 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Where's Johnny Gomes on the list?

I kid because I care…

If you're not having fun, what are you having? There's already WAAAY too many serious moments in life.

by Manny Stiles on Oct 15, 2008 5:12 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

This is a damn good list.

Nice work Tyler.

The road to hell is paved with Mariners.

by Taylor H on Oct 15, 2008 6:01 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

good job tyler but i have a few questions about some of our prospects that some of you guys might know more about then me

1.Brignac- so what do to with him? bartlett’s defense has amazing for us, but brignac wont be that much of a downgrade so why not just trade bartlett when brignac is ready since he has more offensive upside?
2. Hellickson- so i think he is going to be starting out at AA, but do you think that he will at some point get moved up to AAA if he shows that AA is no longer a challange for him? i think his ETA is going to be mid 2010 is that too early?
3. Houser- i have always like him, but with his healthy issues, why not move him to the pen? he just reminds me of a poor mans jp howell, is that a bad comparision?
4.Beckham-so when do you guys think that he is going to be ready, after aki’s contract is up?

when you think .500 is the best a team can do and they are currently playing in the ALCS for a chance to advance to the WS, you have to stop and think that the future of that team is going to be amazing. GO TB RAYS!

by RaysOfHope on Oct 15, 2008 10:52 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My thoughts:

1. With Brignac, it’s all about value. I’m pretty sure he’s going to be an upgrade over Bartlett by at the very latest, 2010 and perhaps as early as mid next year. However, I doubt Bartlett has all that much trade value by himself. If we can package him with someone, say, Edwin for a RFer, I think it might be worth it. If we can find a market for Brignac where we get good value then deal him. If not, let it play out. When Brignac outplays him, he’ll start and Bartlett could either move (or Brignac move) or become a utility guy.
2. Hellickson will start in AA next year and will progress from there. Expect him to follow a similar path as Wade Davis. He’ll be called up as needed. I doubt he’ll be hear any sooner than September 2010 unless we have some injury issues. Our starting pitching is exceptionally deep. He could be ready mid-2010, but probably not called up.
3. Houser’s problem was a knee injury this year, nothing to do with his arm. You can move him to the pen whenever you need him out of the pen. Starters are more valuable, so you keep him there as long unless you have a reason to move him.
4. Beckham will not be ready by the time Aki’s contract is up baring him just obliterating the minor leagues. And even then, the AFRO has been conservative with their high school draftees. Aki’s contract expires after next season with a club option for 2010. Even if Beckham goes nuts, he’s still not likely to be ready until 2012. That’ll be 3 full seasons in the minors.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Oct 15, 2008 11:12 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

thanks

i have a feeling that brignac is going to be traded this offseason for a RF, isnt bartlett going to be eligible for arb this year? so then i think he would see 3 more years of bartlett and i think that if they think that beckham is ready by then that he might get the call, but if not i could see them resigning bartlett to a 1 yr deal or something like that.

when you think .500 is the best a team can do and they are currently playing in the ALCS for a chance to advance to the WS, you have to stop and think that the future of that team is going to be amazing. GO TB RAYS!

by RaysOfHope on Oct 15, 2008 11:19 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Honestly I want Brignac to win the SS job next year.

I have no problem with Bartlett, but that would mean two things:
1. Brignac’s wrist healed fine.
2. Brignac progressed.

I don’t expect it to happen though.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 15, 2008 11:25 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i could see him starting around mid season if they dont trade him

i think that he is going to start out in AAA next year to have him prove that his wrist is fine and if bartlett gets off to a slow start like he did this year then they go with brignac

when you think .500 is the best a team can do and they are currently playing in the ALCS for a chance to advance to the WS, you have to stop and think that the future of that team is going to be amazing. GO TB RAYS!

by RaysOfHope on Oct 15, 2008 11:30 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My takes, same questions

1) Aki only has two years left and Bartlett has only three years left with the team anyway. Brignac would probably do just fine at second base, so trading either one is an option. However, I’m still not convinced that Brignac, at his best, won’t be much more than Bartlett’s glove + Zobrist’s bat (2008 version), and if we’re trying to win now/next year, I don’t know that either his glove or his bat is as good as Bartlett’s.

2) Think more like September 2010. I agree 100% with Tyler here.

3) Houser will be in the pen in the majors, period. He’s a future loogy, nothing more. Very similar to Trever Miller overall, right down to the lack of a fastball that breaks 90, and his minor league splits reflect the fact that he’ll be a LOOG. However, until he makes the major league club, you leave him as a starter because he has more trade value that way. At this point, however, if Durham’s rotation is full, I don’t see the harm in moving him to the pen, even in the minors.

4) September 2011, absolute earliest. He might be ready by the time Bartlett’s contract expires, but even that i doubt.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Oct 16, 2008 7:58 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And re: Zobrist

I mean before he went on his mini-HR team the last few games of the season.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Oct 16, 2008 8:00 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't get the Zob comp

He’s like the exact opposite hitter. Zobrist’s IsoP in the minors is .141. His IsoD is .111. Brignac’s are .174 and .57. One has power with little plate discipline. The other has plate discipline with little power.

by rglass44 on Oct 16, 2008 11:09 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I had absolutely no idea DJ was back.

He’s playing in the AFL! Hooray. He’s only played one game. He was 0-3 with 2 BB and a K. He lead off and played CF! Awesome.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Oct 16, 2008 10:52 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oh my happy time.

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans

BELIEVE in 08!

by SRQman on Oct 16, 2008 11:02 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Average is for wimps.

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans

BELIEVE in 08!

by SRQman on Oct 16, 2008 11:51 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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