Rays Apparently Interested in SP Kenshin Kawakami
by R.J. Anderson on Oct 28, 2008 12:56 AM EDT
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PrintMay as well document the first rumor of this post-season and give us something else to talk about during the break.
Hat tip to user JoeDobr for finding this tidbit in Sports Nippon, via Boston.com.
Kenshin Kawakami, a 33-year-old righthanded pitcher, is most likely going to make a jump to the major leagues for the 2009 season as a free agent. Sports Nippon is reporting that the Rays are one of the teams that is interested in his services. As an ace of the Chunichi Dragons, he went 9-5 with 2.30 ERA last season and also pitched in the Beijing Olympics for the Japanese team. His career record is 112-72 with 3.22 ERA in 257 games during his 11 seasons with the Dragons and he was a major contributor when the Dragons won Japan Series in 2007. Kawakami's best pitch is cut-fastball and is comparable to Hiroki Kuroda of the Dodgers.
Kawakami is a smart, creative pitcher who is known for finding ways to get even the toughest hitters out in big situations. His heavy fastball and assortment of off-speed pitches makes him a ground-ball specialist, which should draw interest from teams in the USA's smaller ballparks. His curve is especially knee-buckling
Looking at his numbers, it appears Kawakami has good-great control (or at least a good K/BB ratio) and gives up a moderate amount of homeruns. Here's a very, very rough look at what his FIPs would be, keep in mind I used a generic constant (3.2) and did not league or park adjust, so these numbers are extremely, extremely, extremely rough.
| Year | FIP |
|---|---|
| 1998 | 3.77 |
| 1999 | 4.38 |
| 2000 | 5.60 |
| 2001 | 3.35 |
| 2002 | 3.18 |
| 2003 | 3.14 |
| 2004 | 3.82 |
| 2005 | 3.58 |
| 2006 | 3.23 |
| 2007 | 3.35 |
Do note:Kawakami is a free agent, and there will be no posting fee required.
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Is there a general consensus to how Japanese pitchers translate into MLB, versus MLB hitters?
Good control, getting groundballs is a good start.
FWIW
I believe finesse pitchers have tended to translate less well than power pitchers. A finesse pitcher is going to have more XBH problems in the majors than in Japan, due to the difference in the size of the ball and the size of the fields. I haven’t done a scientific study of this, but I imagine that the small sample bears this out.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
actually i've mostly seen the opposite,
japanese power-pitching is not comparable to american power-pitching, so pitchers with a bit more finesse (kuroda, nomo was not overpowering) tend to keep their walks from exploding quite as much as power pitchers (igawa, irabu, matsuzaka).
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
Huh?
Kuroda was considered a power pitcher (or at least average) in Japan and sits 90 – 93. Nomo threw 95 when he first came to the majors and was a fireballer until his arm fell off (and then he had some success as a junkballer for a while). Igawa is a pitcher who barely cracks 90 and sits at 88, even though his style is more like a power pitcher than a finesse pitcher. Best I can tell, Kawakami pitches upper 80’s.
Low-velocity pitchers from Japan (“finesse” might not have been the right word; righties who throw 92 and under, lefties who throw 90 and under):
Kei Igawa
Yasuhiko Yabuta
Shigetoshi Hasegawa
Masao Kida
Tomo Ohka
Keiichi Yabu
Kazuhiro Sasaki (though he pitched off his splitter, not his fastball)
Shingo Takatsu (although he’s a sidearmer so that negates it somewhat)
Hideki Okajima (although he’s a sidearmer so that negates it somewhat)
I’m probably missing a couple, but most of the Japanese pitchers who have made it over here (Nomo, Saito, Matsuzaka, Suzuki) can sling fastballs in the mid-90’s, which is well above average for Japan, or at least the low-90’s (Otsuka, Sasaki, Kuroda, etc.).
Vogt early, Vogt often.
um, you called hideki okajima,
a sidearmer.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
anyway, obviously some have succeeded, some failed,
generalizing and nitpicking are useless anyway.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
Not really
Not when there’s a pretty strong correlation between fastball velocity and which ones have succeeded and which ones have failed. I mean, there’s only about a 20 pitcher sample size to work with here.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
rays going after a starter? dont understand that unless they plan on trading sonny or moving him to the pen
also rj how much money do you think he will want, kuroda type money?
the red sox had a 9 game elimination win streak, but matt garza was too busy rocking out to tupac to notice
i dont think a japanese ace will want to be in the bullpen, do you?
other teams have more needs in their rotation than the rays do and will be willing to give him more money as a starter as the rays will as a reliever
the red sox had a 9 game elimination win streak, but matt garza was too busy rocking out to tupac to notice
Who knows.
He’s the highest paid pitcher in Japan apparently.
by R.J. Anderson on Oct 28, 2008 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions
how much did he make this year in japan?
the red sox had a 9 game elimination win streak, but matt garza was too busy rocking out to tupac to notice
I don't think he's the highest paid pitcher.
Highest paid starter, yes. He made about 3MM for the Chunchin Dragons.
Iwase (closer) made 4.3MM, if I’m right.
Although, Kawakami will definitely get more cash in the US. I could see a Hiroki Kuroda type contract, or at least him getting paid like a really good closer (Brad Lidge/Joe Nathan money looks feasible). by somebody.
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
Pre-Free Agency
A third year player will never be the highest paid.
And for the billionth time, it will be years before he comes over here. Based on his motion and pitch counts, I suspect he’ll be ruined by the time he gets to the US, although the same could have been said for Dice-K.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
And his posting fee will be ridiculous.
he won’t be worth the total cost.
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
He could be posted.
Japanese team could collect a MAJOR sum of money in posting fees.
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
I just doubt it will happen
In the current market conditions, I doubt that anyone gets a posting fee like Matsuzaka did. The NBP teams are (mostly) owned by public Japanese corporations, and therefore bottom line is always more important than winning, but winning improves the bottom line. If the dollar sharply gains against the Yen, there’s a possibility, but otherwise Nippon Ham will probably just hang onto him for a few more years before they post him. It’s not like he’s even remotely close to free agency, and historically Japanese teams wait until the year before the player becomes a free agent to post them.
I know there’s been speculation, but I’d personally put the chances that Darvish gets posted any time in the next 3 years at below 5%.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Darvish is mindblowingly overrated anyway.
Every time they talk about him in the US you’d figure it was Nolan Koufax Blyleven. He works in the low 90s and comps to the Pads Chris Young.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
i already have a nick name for him if he signs with us
kazakami kawakami
the red sox had a 9 game elimination win streak, but matt garza was too busy rocking out to tupac to notice
so, basically... this guy is an older version of sonny?
i’d rather trade kazmir and a couple prospects for matt holliday
1. Upton CF
2. Crawford LF
3. Holliday RF
4. Pena 1B
5. Longoria 3B
6. Navarro C
7. Iwamura 2B
8. Aybar DH
9. Bartlett SS
1. Shieds
2. Garza
3. Price
4. Sonny
5. Jackson/Davis/Hellickson/Niemann, etc.
i wouldnt trade kazmir just yet
i like what i am seeing from him the last couple of starts with him mixing in more of his pitches
the red sox had a 9 game elimination win streak, but matt garza was too busy rocking out to tupac to notice
Dude??
Why no Holliday? He would probably mash here.
No trading Kazmir..WTF?? He is one of us.
Look at Holliday's Home-Away splits
He’s benefited from the Coor’s effect, no doubt. He’s around an .800 OPS guy outside of Coors, which is pretty good but not particularly incredible.
"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige
by Steve Slowinski on Oct 28, 2008 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Outside Coors, Holliday is probably worse than Ryan Ludwick.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
Career road splits
Ludwick: .258/.329/.482/.811
Holliday: .280/.348/.455/.803
Holliday is 2 years younger, and his splits are more true to his career averages. Ludwick is coming off one career year that skews his numbers.
Bill James 2009 predictions
Ludwick .879 ops
Holliday .937 ops
Going forward they project similarly, Ludwick with better defense, assuming Ludwick is still Ludwick.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
But unlike Ludwick, there's actually a snowball's chance in hell that Holliday might be traded.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
You think Ludwick is untouchable?
He’s probably not worth the cost, but I don’t know if they wouldn’t trade him.
Really?
Check the numbers. Perez is faster and a better defender and a switch hitter, Barton hits a bit better for average. Other than that, they’re pretty darn similar players.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Higher slugging, but mainly due to average
Barton’s OPS is higher, and he was pretty successful in his big league stint this year. What’s the downside in taking him in the rule 5 draft? He would have been on the roster all year.
It would have used up a roster spot all year
That’s the downside. We would have had to release him or tender him back once Rocco was ready anyway.
Perez’s and Barton’s seasons in AA were almost identical. They’re both about the same age with the same skill set.
I don’t know where you got that Barton’s OPS is higher. Perez’s OPS was higher in the major leagues this year. Perez was .250/.348/.433 in 60 ABs. Barton was .268/.354/.392 in 158 ABs. And unlike Barton, who’s pretty much limited to playing left field, Perez can handle center well.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
I didn't look at the MLB #s because 60 ABs isn't enopugh to infer anything
I was under the impression Barton could play RF. If he could, then he would have been valuable to the team this year. I really do think he could have been on the roster and been of use to the big team the entire year. He was essentially free, and if you don’t keep him on the roster you lose a little bit of money. Whatever, though. I would just like to stockpile as much cheap talent as possible.
I didn't say I was completely against trading for Holliday
Just that Kaz shouldn’t be traded for one year of Holliday.
One or more of Davis, Hellickson, or Sonnanstine would be the meat of a Holliday deal, but remember, he is a one year rental, and his agent is Boras (i.e. he’s looking at a 100MM contract when he hits FA after the 2009 season).
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
i agree it might be selling slightly low on Kazmir
but the Rays have a gluttony of pitching and will always benefit from shedding payroll (although a year of Holliday will cost about as much as a year of Kaz). and on a one-season basis, Holliday is probably 1-2 wins better than Kaz.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 28, 2008 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Didn't they just give Kaz a 3 year extension before the season started?
Don’t think moving him is gonna happen.
by staplemaniac on Oct 28, 2008 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
The extension makes him more valuable in a trade.
Team doesn’t have to go through arbitration with him, and if he keeps up his current performance, he will be at/below market value.
Kazmir is more valuable than Holliday in a trade.
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
They're not going to trade someone right after they sign him to a below-market deal
Otherwise, nobody would trust the team enough to sign a below-market deal with them in the future.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Sweet
Can you imagine how nasty will this staff be if we can sign Kawakami? Shields, Garza, Price, Sonny, Kazmir, Kawakami, EJax, Davis, Niemann, Talbot, and Hellickson? That has to be by far the deepest in baseball. Damn I don’t think finding a right fielder will be a problem.
I really don't know.
There isn’t a posting fee, unlike Dice-K, Igawa, etc, which is good.
He’ll cost the same as the non-K-Rod/Fuentes crop of the American relievers, and may even be at the same level as Fuentes (I honestly don’t know. I could see him getting Brad Lidge/Joe Nahtan cash).
Don’t flame me on this, but at that rate, why not sign one of the MLB FA relievers (an Affeldt type) and assume lesser risk (since the guy will be proven in MLB, unlike Kawakami).
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
He's a stud, but no thanks.
I’ve heard speculation of the posting fee being over 50MM if he were to be posted. If Darvish were to get the same contract Dice-K did (which I’m pretty sure other teams would offer), 6/52, and the posting, the total cost would be around 100MM to get Darvish.
So, the total cost (posting + contract to Yu) would pretty much be equal to what AJ Burnett will probably get in free agency, if not more. Use the money for better stuff.
Dice-K had around a 50MM posting fee.
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
Yu's St. Pete connection
I read in an article that his parents (Yu Darvishs) met at Eckerd College in St. Pete maybe we could have a chance when he reached free agency… But from how he portrays himself he will most likely want to play for a NY/LA team to be in those cities, which makes most sense because of the posting fee anyway.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yu_Darvish—-his wiki has the thing about his parents meting in St Pete also says his dad was on the Iranian national football team
IF only Harry Carey could be arounde for Kosuke.
by CubFanRaysaddict on Oct 28, 2008 2:00 PM EDT reply actions
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