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Professing My Love of Probability

Apparently, some people are saying this season possesses no positive aspect due to the World Series results. This is irrational and frankly embarrassing to the fan base. Few teams improve by 31 games and even fewer teams do it with the second lowest payroll in the league.

Being outstanding for 162 games is a far greater challenge than being outstanding for three five-to-seven game series. In any given set of ~20 games you're going to have random variance play a huge role in the outcomes, much larger than during the regular season because usually random variance doesn't even out in the post-season. Throw in awful umpiring; a typhoon, and a two-day half-inning and you have three variables that the Rays had zero control over.

The Phillies were better for five games than the Rays were, the Rays were better than most of the league for 162 games. Tell me the former eclipses the latter and I'm going to have to question your thinking. I'm going to write this up to some people trying to be radicals, but ending up as perfect squares.

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Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans

BELIEVE in 08!

by SRQman on Oct 30, 2008 6:34 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I understand both sides of the argument

The ultimate goal is to win a championship. We had a great season. A very memorable one, and more importantly one for which we can build upon to win championships in the future. It woke up a community to baseball.

However, we did not win the championship. We can talk about how bad a 7 games series is as an indicator, or that baseball shouldn’t be played in winter conditions. In the end it doesn’t matter. 2008 the World Series Champions were the Phillies. It doesn’t matter that we could have probably beaten them 7 out of 10 different 7 games series. The rain doesn’t matter. The awful umpiring doesn’t matter. The record book isn’t going to reflect any of that. We were the American League Champions. We did not win the World Series.

It was a great season. More than I could have ever imagined. However, we did not win the ultimate prize. That is the goal for every team when they strap on the shoulder pads, tie the laces of their cleats, attend spring training or spring practice. We didn’t achieve that goal.

You don’t win the ultimate prize by being the most talented team, the team with the best record over 162 games, the luckiest team, the grittiest team, the team with the best FO…You win it by winning 4 of 7 games in the World Series. We didn’t do it.

Nobody in their right mind will say this season was a failure. It was a success. Rome wasn’t built in a day. However, teams are remember based upon how many championships they have. We have 0. In 10 years if we still have zero championships then we have a big problem…On the bright side this is just the beginning of the journey for the Tampa Bay Rays, this is nowhere near the end.

by matthan on Oct 30, 2008 6:46 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   2 recs

The point is that winning a championship isn't something that you can control

Even if you have a better team in terms of the parts it’s made up of, you might not win the WS. I mean, Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena were terrible this series and who saw THAT coming? It’s just impossible to guaruntee that you will win any series that short.

by staplemaniac on Oct 30, 2008 6:51 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

great post

the world series is the ultimate goal, but winning it involves both luck and talent. and the ultimate goal isn’t the ONLY goal. Orioles fans still watched games in September.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 30, 2008 6:58 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

...

If winning the WS is the ultimate result, not dictated entirely by skill, then that means it’s not really a goal because it’s more luck than achievable success. Which means the ultimate goal is making the playoffs and the ultimate result would be winning it all.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 30, 2008 7:21 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

the ultimate goal of every single major league baseball team is winning the world series.

Ask any player.

Ask any coach.

Ask any GM.

It is not luck. You line up your players and you play well or you don’t. The Rays weren’t unlucky. They sucked in the WS. They were outhit, outfielded, outpitched, and outcoached. Period.

Greatness is only in part measured by how consistent you were over the course of a season. More importantly it is measured by the ability to rise to the occasion and play one’s best when everything is on the line.

by RaysTheRoof on Oct 31, 2008 12:33 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I still can't belive that we lost

This was our season. Who cares if you win the ALCS, the only thing that matters is winning the WS. In 20 years nobody ( except Rays fans) will remember who won the 08 ALCS. The only thing people will remember is who won the WS.

by Penaholic on Oct 31, 2008 9:39 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

When you're used to 95 loss teams

You remember years like this, no matter what the result. People still remember the ‘67 Red Sox even though they didn’t win the World Series.

Sternberg/Friedman '08!!

by JMB on Nov 1, 2008 9:11 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Championships are the reason they play all these games

I’m not saying R.J. is wrong about chance and the difficulty of winning a series vs. winning 97 games, but at the end of the day, every sport has a system in place for determining a champion. Baseball’s involves winning three short series. If you get to the final one and lay an egg the way the Rays did, you don’t get credit for your 97 wins. You finish second.

Nothing else matters. The 2006 Cardinals and plenty of other teams won’t ever think about their regular season win totals again.

Championships are the reason they play all these games.

by Bobby Fenton on Oct 31, 2008 12:46 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Pennants do matter.

The ultimate goal is a World Series, but you can hang your hat on winning a division and winning a pennant. As a fan this is the ultimate: we were the last team playing baseball this year. How many months of enjoyment did we get? 8 months. 8. How much out of the previous 10? Maybe 6? the players should be disippointed because many of them crapped the bed on the biggest stage. As a fan, though, who cares what Phillies, Sox, Sawx, Yanks, etc fans remember? I know I will remember this ride the rest of my life. Would a trophy have made it that much better? A little, maybe, but no way a World Series title will be more fulfilling then this entire season has been for me, as a fan of this team.

by rglass44 on Oct 31, 2008 1:19 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

"Championships are the reason they play all these games."

In theory, yes. However none of us have stopped watching any of our teams due to a drought in championships, have we? To the players I’m sure they fully expect to win all titles, however realistically I don’t feel our expectations should be nearly that high.

Like I’ve said before, I consider a goal something attainable purely be skill and talent. That would include winning 97 games and the division. In the playoffs luck weighs more so than in the regular season. By that I do not considering winning the title a goal, but rather the ultimate result. So to me the goal is to give ourselves a chance to gain that result.

I hope that makes sense.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 31, 2008 1:23 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

the World Series is not just "any seven game series"

Any team winning the World Series has to be out-standing during the regular season (enough to be one of eight teams) then they have to play out-standing high-pressure baseball for 3 series and win them all to be the Champion. So the World Series is not just a random best of seven, it features the two teams that could weather all of that. If everything was left to “probablity” why would they play the games at all….and why would we care? “Well it says here my team should be able to beat your team 7 out of 10 times, so I guess you had just better go home now.” Most of us are excited about the games because people can do extrodinary things in big moments….things that probablity would tell you, you should not be able to do. Or they do terrible things. Is it just a result? Of course….but isn’t that the whole point of competitve sports? To win on the highest stage? Competition to determine who is the best, not probablity.

But I do agree with you….anybody saying this season is a disapointment because the Rays did not win the WS should be banned from life. Unforgettable season, unforgettable summer. I will say though….the Phils are the best team. The deserve to be called that. I will expect the same when the Rays win it.

by free hotdogs on Oct 31, 2008 2:23 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

83-78 ('06 STL) or 85-77 ('87 MIN) is not regular season outstanding

Yet they won the World Series vs. teams with far better records.

by RATW on Oct 31, 2008 10:22 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Winning the AL East was far more impressive and satisfying than the playoffs

Of course it would have been great to win it all, but to act as if this season was a disappointment based on the World Series is just mind-boggling. Apparently, some people don’t consider context, others enjoy being negative, still others are drama queens and then there are idiots.

by RATW on Oct 31, 2008 10:29 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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