Would Edwin Jackson Work as a Reliever?

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 30, 2008 9:22 PM EDT Comment 27 comments

Referencing Nate Silver's prior work on this topic, he found the the best starters-to-relievers transitions had the following traits:

- Higher walk rate.

- Higher strikeout rate.

- Indifference on fly/ground ball tendencies.

- Low IsoP.

Silver found the walk and IsoP qualities the most important. This is good news for Jackson, although his BB totals impressively dropped over one per nine. Jackson also had a lower IsoP than most, although this was more due to a high OBP than a low SLG. Some of the more successful shifters include LaTroy Hawkins and Tom Gordon, let's take a look at how Jackson's numbers compare to them.

Pitcher	BB/9	IsoP
Jackson	3.78	0.163
Hawkins	3.09	0.184
Gordon	3.84	0.093
Jimenez	3.92	0.132
Gossage	3.62	0.116
Gagne	2.73	0.201

I was vastly against Edwin Jackson the starter, but call me crazy, I think I'm willing to give Edwin the reliever a shot.

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YOU ARE CRAZY

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Oct 30, 2008 9:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I thought the argument was it took him too long to warm up?

That, and he seems to throw the last 50% of his work better than the first 50%.

All I can think about was that last inning of work in Game 4 of the ALCS where he was handed a 8-9 run lead and had to get a visit from Hickey that inning. When you’re pitching while up that far, your job is quite simple.

by Jason Collette on Oct 30, 2008 9:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Throwing really hard matters RJ!

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Oct 30, 2008 9:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

As does throwing hard perfectly straight:

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Oct 30, 2008 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

LaTroy was the same way.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 30, 2008 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep - as one of the only people old enough in here to remember Hawkins as a rookie

by Jason Collette on Oct 30, 2008 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

cough cough

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Oct 30, 2008 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You know blogging hasn't been around that long

when the older generation is mostly pushing 30.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Oct 30, 2008 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

rj, ru saying edwin as closer next year?

i would feel more comfortable with him than percy and wheeler at this point

by RaysOfHope on Oct 30, 2008 10:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't believe in closers.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 30, 2008 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i think he could be a good power reliever but i rather trade him for billy butler or some other RF/DH

by RaysOfHope on Oct 30, 2008 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fine, let him be a reliever then.

But on someone else’s team. If he opens the season in the Rays’ bullpen, I may have to shoot myself. Why give him yet another shot while Niemann, Talbot, and Salas also deserve a chance?

"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige

by Steve Slowinski on Oct 30, 2008 11:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If Edwin has a good day noboby can beat him

but if he has a normal day he is dead meat.

by Penaholic on Oct 31, 2008 8:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Edwin Jackson is one of the teams unsung heros this year

He never was injured and was always counted on to pitch. Then again keep in mind that the Rays were probably the only team in MLB this year to have the same starting 5 rotation throughout the entire season (except for the beginning with Kazmir and Garza’s little 15 day DL stint)

by Matt C on Oct 31, 2008 10:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Calling Jackson an "unsung hero" is ridiculous just because he was healthy all year.

by walkoffwalk on Oct 31, 2008 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

sentence structure fail.

by walkoffwalk on Oct 31, 2008 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 31, 2008 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly the opposite

Edwin Jackson was overrated as one of the main heroes because of his percieved turnaround. I think this has been gone into enough in several previous posts. He has better stats this year than last, but those improvements fall in line with 3 things:

Scoring in the league was down this year
The Team defensive improvement that showed for all of the pitchers
The bullpen abandoned runners improvmenet that showed for all of the pitchers

In other words, he did not pitch any better this year than he did last year; he has benefited from a better team around him.

by kericr on Oct 31, 2008 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i obviously agree with this plan

http://www.draysbay.com/2008/8/31/604873/jackson-v-sonny-bullpen-de

but i think his trade value is higher than his bullpen value. pulling things out of my backside, i’d say Jackson would be a 3.50 ERA reliever

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 31, 2008 11:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree that Ejax has lightning in his arm.

I would see no reason not to try him out as a closer, or reliever. However, Ejax has been horrid early on in games. Between pitches 1-15 opponents are hitting .343 over the last three years’ .304 between 16-30; .243 between pitches 31-45. These stats are over a three period. This tells me it takes Edwin a while to calm down and get outs.

Now, you look at a guy like JP Howell who was lights out the first few times facing a guy, then got lit up as the game went on. JP seems to work as a reliever because he can turn it on earlier in the game.

Bottom line: Ejax has the making of a lights out reliever just needs to channel his talents. If only he had some options available so he could learn how to be a closer in the minors.

The Rays lost the World Series to bad umpires, Mother Nature, and the Philadelphia Phillies.

by thebaddancingraysfan on Oct 31, 2008 12:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs