Minor League Bullpen Options
by P Brady on Oct 31, 2008 5:06 PM EDT
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PrintLet's see if any of our our minor league relievers could produce at a high level for us in the bigs next year, let's start off with...
Dale Thayer:
K/9:9.75|BB/9:3.19
GB%: 44%|LD%: 17%|FB%: 37%
FIP: 2.56, MLE: 3.21, tRA: 3.83(130+)
Thayer has been very dominant in the minors, generating swinging strikes with a high K rate with a decent Walk rate for a reliever. He forces a majority of Ground Balls and gets a decent amount of swinging strikes, Thayer could be up by the All Star Break next year if he is needed.
Eduardo Morlan:
K/9:8.50|BB/9: 2.83
GB%: 32%|LD%: 20%|FB%: 46%
FIP: 3.97, MLE: 5.16, tRA: 4.93(106+)
Eduardo Morlan, picked up from the Delmon Young-Matt Garza trade, took a step backwards this year. He saw his K Rate drop by a massive amount, down from 12.6 per 9 innings and as such, his stock has dropped significantly. This is reportedly due to a loss in velo, and a flyball reliever with only an above-average K-Rate for a reliever means his ETA is Sep or 2010, and that may be generous.
Jacob Mcgee:
K/9:7.25|BB/9: 4.13
GB%: 43%|LD%: 18%|FB%: 37%
FIP: 4.34, MLE: 5.11, tRA: 4.82(107+)
Probably not 100% for the majority of the year, Jake McGee suffered Tommy John's Surgery mid-year, and put to rest what would be his most disappointing year as a pro. His Walk Rate was bad and his K-Rate was not up to his standards. If he can heal and be back within the first months of the season(As a reliever), and his K-Rate returns, his ETA could be as soon as September as a dominant lefty power pitcher a la Everyone's Favorite Velociraptor, if he is out for much longer, his ETA moves to Mid-2010.
Mitch Talbot(Durham Only):
K/9: 7.66|BB/9: 1.90
GB%: 55%|LD%: 16.%|FB%: 27%
FIP: 2.98, MLE: 3.54, tRA: 4.07(122+)
Everyone's favorite overlooked starter, Talbot could fit in as an Andy Sonnanstine-Like Pen Piece. An average K Rate coupled with an outstanding Walk Rate spell success for any level, and a 5 pitch Repertoire, he could conceievably make the regression that the existing pen is due more bearable, and has a good shot at making the team out of spring training.
So in order of Most to Least Ready, I have it as:
Talbot
Thayer
McGee
Morlan
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Mcgee rehab schedule
Has anyone read or heard when is he ready to start throwing again? If we can have this guy coming out of the pen; look out. He’s got nasty stuff and would be a great in house choice for closing.
He's already started throwing IIRC.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
wow, thats awesome
Any word on what the plan is with him? When he comes back, will they see what he can do as a SP? or you think they will convert him right away to the pen?
Very useful post.
As long as there is a solid core of relievers, filling a few of the lower spots internally is great. I’d maybe try to add one guy to the core, but not much more, then fill internally.
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
this
I wanted Fuentes signed but I am not sure we need to spend that money. Guys like Juan Cruz, Brandon Lyon, and Joe Beimel can all do the job for much cheaper and McGee can definatley be a relief ace. I also think Morlan can get his shit together, I don’t think he will go from one of the top RP prospects in baseball to garbage in 1 season.
I forgot to mention
That at least ONE of Thayer, Talbot or Niemann would also be a very good RP next season.
Maybe Niemann can replace Miller
FA replaces Percival
and hell my 15 year old cat can replace Hammel.
Quick tRA question though.
I get the gist of what tRA is, but what are the major flaws with the stat?
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
Flaws are it doesn't take into account flukey GB%/LD%, which sometimes can throw it off.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
and it assumes a LD (or FB or GB or whatever) allowed by every pitcher is of the same quality
tRA* is a regressed form of tRA which attempts to account for flukey seasonal GB/LD/etc rates. not perfect but better.
another weakness is that it assumes pitchers can’t pitch to the situation. which is probably less true than most people think, but still true to some extent.
another weakness is that it doesn’t account for quality of batters faced.
it’s still the best composite metric to use to judge a pitcher. and many of those weaknesses are shared by popular and other advanced metrics.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
no mathmatical formula to determine what is a line-drive is my biggest gripe.
by walkoffwalk on Oct 31, 2008 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions
As far as I can tell, Dale Thayer will be a free agent if he should choose become one.
He’s been in the minors 6 years without being added to the 40 man. He also doesn’t really have big league stuff. Don’t expect much from him if he is called up.
Morlan’s step backwards is a direct result of his stuff “going away.” His fastball sat in the upper-80’s touching 93 this season. The scouting report when we traded for him was a guy that could throw 98 if he wanted to, but couldn’t throw strikes that hard, so he had toned it down and was sitting at 92-93. Very disappointing.
Tools Whore
Sign Bonds!
Did we think Sonny had big league stuff?
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
Well, Sonny was not out there repeating levels either.
The two are not really comparable. Sonnanstine never repeated a league, Thayer will be 28 next year and has been bouncing between AA and AAA for the last 3 seasons.
And not very many Andy Sonnanstine’s make it. And they’re even less likely to make it when they’re 28, right handed and 6’ tall.
Tools Whore
Sign Bonds!
Speaking of agining minor leaguers
think Juan Salas can give us anything this year?
And as mentioned in another thread, you guys think Orvella can still be a good major league RP?
Nope.
Wasn’t that great, and that was before shoulder surgery.
www.raysprospects.com
Trade for Billy Butler!
by Imperialism32 on Oct 31, 2008 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Orvella?
BA had him as one of our top ten prospects for a couple years and he put up excellent numbers in just 147 IP in the minors (10.9 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, etc.). Assuming he can get back to full health (yes, a big assumption), what makes you so sure he’s incapable of being a productive pitcher?
Yeah
I can’t imagine Thayer sticking around here. He could easily land somewhere like SD and be an above-average reliever, but our pen is just too stacked to fit him at the moment, and he knows that. He’ll head somewhere that he has a chance of making the majors.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Who do all see as roster adds
Davis a must, as are Morlan, McGee for rule 5 coverage. Thayer as noted is an FA – to protect from 5 needs be added, or risk it and resign to minor contract with invite? Do you dump or keep Orvella off the 60 day DL? Among other 5 eligibles are Rhyne Hughes, Fields, Spring, Mason, Nowak, and most of the AA roster (not Rollins, Helllickson, Reid, Matulia).
Rocco’s already off the roster after filing for FA. leaving 39 on. Among possible or likely departures: Miller (option p/u?), Hinske, Floyd, Gomes, M. Hernandez, Ryu(?). Anyone else? All those leaves 7 roster spots, need space for FA or 3, so can add maybe 4-5 from minors, risk the rest, with 3 above that seem likely adds to me.
McGee could be put on 60 DL to start season, make room for an NRI add. I thought his surgery happened in June/July, so he won’t likely be available until then next season. Can’t count on him for pen out of the shoot.
Can't keep someone on the 60-day DL during the offseason
I wouldn’t be shocked to see Orvella waived and resigned to a minor league deal.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
And re: McGee
They won’t put him on the major league 60-day DL. Time on the 60-day DL counts towards the arb clock and super-2 status. They’ll option him to the minors and have him on the minor league DL, which means he’ll still take a spot on the 40-man roster. He still hasn’t even pitched in AAA yet. Even if McGee is fully healthy, he’s still a good year away from the majors.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
According to luck metrics,
it’s possible that the bullpen is in for a huge regression next season. Any chance one of these guys is enough to stop that from happening?
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
the bullpen might even be better, talent-wise, next year but not be as effective as they were this year
and they’ll get a lot of flack for it, somewhat undeservedly.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
"World Series hangover" if the Rays don't win at least 95 games.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 2, 2008 1:36 PM EST up reply actions
There probably will be a real hangover effect though
There usually is with young pitchers going way over their normal max innings pitched. I’d expect Shields and Garza to struggle some next year.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Yeah Olney made a point about this and I thought it was very fair
Someone asked him if there would be a hangover effect for the Rays and he said yes. The person’s follow up question was, “entirely physical?” and he said emphatically, yes. There wouldn’t be a mental hangover obviously, but yeah, our young pitchers could struggle a lot pitching a month longer than they have previously.
Tools Whore
Sign Bonds!
another reason to shore up the bullpen
Don’t over-work the young starters.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
for what its worth about Thayer...
I saw 2 games when Thayer pitched from right behind the catcher when Durham was up here to ply SWB Yanks in the IL playoffs and Thayers stuff is sooooo decieving. He hides the ball better than any pitcher out there. He pitched between 88-91 with his fastball and touched 93 once (ball was high tho)- but man o man you don’t see it real good… He has fab control and I think would be more than serviciable as middle relief. I wouldn’t want hitters to see him a second time, but the 1st time would be pretty good IMHO. I would like to see what DT does against big leaguers in an invite to big league camp in March…
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