Tampa Bay Rays v. Boston Red Sox ALCS Preview
I think we all knew these two were on a collision course. If you are a fan of great baseball this was these were the teams you wanted here. First to four goes to the World Series.
Preface: all stats are either wOBA or tRA provided by StatCorner. Defensive numbers provided by Justin. All other stats courtesy of FanGraphs and THT.
When healthy Boston is arguably the best team in the league, however we know that Mike Lowell will miss this series and Josh Beckett (as well as J.D. Drew) might be less than 100%. None the less, here's a rundown of their roster:
Jason Varitek (.306): Prepare for non-stop slobbering when it comes to Varitek and his "amazing mind for the game." Fortunately for the Rays, Varitek's offensive skills are decayed (only 13% liners) but he still throws out about 19% of runners. Varitek will go out of the zone 24% of the time.
Mark Kotsay (.276): For whatever reason the Sox insist on playing Kotsay at first over Sean Casey. I have no idea why because Kotsay is nowhere near the player he was seasons ago. Consider that Kotsay is going out of the zone about 27% of the time this year while his career average is 21.74%.
Dustin Pedroia (.389): He's probably your AL MVP, whether or not he deserves that is a debate for elsewhere. Pedroia is not a very discipline hitter and swings out of thezone 26% of the time. This season Pedroia has been worth nearly nine runs on defense.
Kevin Youkilis (.413): An okay defensive first baseman; Youkilis playing third changes the complexion of the infield defense for the Sox. Youk is of course patient, but not as much as in previous years. Whether or not that has a correlation with his increased power is unbeknownst to me.
Jed Lowrie (.328): Another above average defender (the Sox have many) Lowrie takes the place of Julio Lugo. Lowrie doesn't swing out of the zone; only 17.64%.
Jason Bay (.380): Oh what could have been. A minus defender (apparently around 15 runs this year) and a patient hitter. We know enough about him, no need to beat him to death.
Jacoby Ellsbury (.330): Remember when his Taco winning steal was just setting the stage for Ellsbury seizing the Rookie of the Year award this season? Oops. Ellsbury swings out of the zone a ton (nearly 30%), and his .330 wOBA is just nasty. Coco Crisp (.341) might see some time out in center as well.
J.D. Drew (.400): Just another lazy outfielder far more talented than most people realize. Drew barely hacks and might be the most dangerous hitter in the lineup.
David Ortiz (.373): Didn't have the season he's used to having, but still won't chase and can make you pay. What the heck is a glove?
The other bench players: Kevin Cash (.291) is pitiful and Alex Cora (.338) is passable.
Josh Beckett (3.64): 94 fastball, 77 curve, and 89 change will be slung at the Rays hitters like every other start. Might not be 100%.
Jon Lester (3.79): This is absolutely the last guy I want on the mound versus our lineup. His fastball only sits at 92, and his cutter around 88, but he's really developed into a pretty nice pitcher. Also throws a 76 curve and 84 change.
Daisuke Matsuzaka (4.17): A house of cards. His fastball is still 92, slider 82, cutter 89, curve 79, change 82, and he stills walks five-plus per nine.
Tim Wakefield (4.84): He throws the knuckleball. A lot. Like, almost always. I think we would rather not see him start, only because that means the Sox are forced to reshuffle their deck for game four.
Jon Papelbon (2.34): Probably the league's best closer (and no, Francisco Rodriguez isn't even close) Papelbon throws 95 with his heater, 87 slider, and 89 with his sinker. Frankly I hope we don't see any of Mr. Papelbon.
Manny Delcarmen (2.72): Possibly the only underrated player on this team. Surprising, considering he throws 95 and has good breaking stuff with a 78 curve and 83 change. A ground ball pitcher.
Justin Masterson (3.56): Supreme groundballer, Masterson's fastball only goes 90 but sinks, 81 slider, and a rarely used 82 change.
Hideki Okajima (3.75): The lefty wasn't quite as good as last season. 88 fastball, 76 curve, 83 change. Weird delivery and a bit of a fly ball pitcher.
Keys to winning:
Beat the non-Lester starters
Good Kazmir showing up
Taking all the home games
Prediction: Rays in seven.
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71 comments
Comments
I'm so ready for this series. Let's kick some RedSox ass...I say Rays in 6 at home for our fans to see.
by TheUltimateBucFan on Oct 7, 2008 12:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
My mind says that this is a seven-game series
and I have nothing against BoSox fans who actually LIVE in Boston, but for the love of all that is Holy, and to put these local BoSox ass-hats in their place once and for all, I am begging and pleading for an absolute domination. I want absolutely nothing to go right for the Sox. I want every starter hammered. I want 10-1 Rays final scores with games done in the 5th inning.
I want a sweep. I want it so bad that it hurts, and I am bringing my fists to game 2.
by kericr on Oct 7, 2008 12:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
im going to say either 5 or 6 games with the rays coming out on top
we have owned them the past 3 series, and them with out lowell, and beckett not himself and drew hurt means we have the major upper hand against them
YOUR 2008 AL EAST DIVISION CHAMPIONS.... THE TAMPA BAY RAYS!!!
by RaysOfHope on Oct 7, 2008 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If we throw fastballs to J Bay I will strangle Navarro.
Tomorrow I am planning a mini-look at the reverse-pitching the Halos did to him in this series.
Spoiler Alert
Heavy, heavy doses of bendy things.
by rglass44 on Oct 7, 2008 12:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
FUCK BOSTON
seriously, no team is as annoying arrogant as these guys
by plasticman on Oct 7, 2008 12:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I 2nd
this
Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Oct 7, 2008 7:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not as annoying anymore
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Oct 7, 2008 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
have you been paying attention to Hank Steinbrenner?
Actually, scratch that, I don’t think ANYONE pays attention to Hank Steinbrenner.
“Some people are born on 3rd base, and think they’ve hit a triple.”
by cjmulrain on Oct 7, 2008 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
actually
the White Sox are pretty annoying too.
They got a douche at manager, Catcher, 1B/CF (Swisher), SS, and Owner
In reference to how good the Steelers have been in their history: "No one is even close to them."- Steal Home
by hinduplaya on Oct 7, 2008 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
lets beat these bastards! the way bossman has been playing lately has been very encouraging
glad that cc is back as well, he has hit well and his speed has helped
if the rays win the world series i dont know if im going to crazy laugh like the joker in the dark knight or cry like a lil bitch, which one will you guys do if we win the WS?
YOUR 2008 AL EAST DIVISION CHAMPIONS.... THE TAMPA BAY RAYS!!!
by RaysOfHope on Oct 7, 2008 12:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Rays in 6.
I think it gets a bit weird… we take one in boston, and they take one at the trop…
I’m betting on Kaz really dealing quality stuff, and BOSSMAN hitting 3-4 HRs in this series. I think one loss is due to our bullpen (eh Wheels?) …and we really pwn one of their starters one game…like for 5+ runs
by daveh33 on Oct 7, 2008 12:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
so is percy going to be on the roster for this series?
man i hope not, he when he steps on the mound, i get really nervous and scared, i would rather have edwin jackson on the roster instead of percy
YOUR 2008 AL EAST DIVISION CHAMPIONS.... THE TAMPA BAY RAYS!!!
by RaysOfHope on Oct 7, 2008 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If healthy I think
he takes Hinske’s spot. I’m probably in the minority on this but I’m comfortable with Percy if he’s 100%. Problem has been that he is not. But from what I’m I’m hearing on radio and internet he seems to be feeling well so I’m okay with adding him. Not so much for Edwin.
Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Oct 7, 2008 7:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am comfortable with Percy if he's 100%
It’s just he hasn’t been 100% since what, June? He keeps saying he’s 100%, but then he goes out, makes a mess of himself, then we all know better.
I’m probably more comfortable with Percy than Hinske though, Hinske didn’t even see the field in the ALDS, with good reason.
by kericr on Oct 7, 2008 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rays in 6
Make no mistake – the ALCS is the World Series. I can’t see the Phillies or Dodgers beating either AL team.
I’m thinking that the Rays take this series in 6. The Rays have a more complete team, and a better bullpen.
It’ll be tough, and at least one Rays starter gets lifted in the 3rd inning after serving up a couple of home runs.
By now, both teams have a very good idea what to expect from each other. Look for Maddon to pull a surprise or two.
The Red Sox will receive a rude shock during the initial set at the Trop. The dome will be packed with loud Rays fans who can outshout the few brave Red Sox fans that find tickets.
The Fox broadcasting team will be surprised at the large and loud crowd at the Trop, too. Joe Buck will remind us several times that he grew up in St. Petersburg.
by billso on Oct 7, 2008 1:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Everyone keeps saying this
And I said it too until LA traded for Manny. The Dodgers are a different team now, plain and simple. You would think they don’t match up, and really they don’t, but I look at that team and I get the same buzz from them as I do when I watch the Rays Don’t be surprised if whoever goes up against LA (and the Dodgers will win the NLDS in 5) gets into a real slugfest with them. The LA Dodgers are capable of taking any team in the playoffs to the woodshed in a blink.
by kericr on Oct 7, 2008 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the return
of a healthy Frucal is great for them too. Now that Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones are not getting AB’s their lineup is pretty nasty.
Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Oct 7, 2008 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the Rays and Sox are better than the Phillies and Dodgers
but 7 games means anything can happen. for example, the Cardinal-Tigers World Series a few years ago.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 7, 2008 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love our line up v RHP
And with Lowell out, i like the match ups more
Aki v Ellsbury
Upton v Pedroia
Pena v Ortiz
Longo v Fucklis
Crawford v Bay
Floyd v Drew
Navi v Casey
Gross v Varitek
Bartlett v Lowrie
by sternfan1 on Oct 7, 2008 5:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
And they play Kotsay because defense does indeed matter and Casey is a lumbering goof. Kotsay is still a really good athlete.
Tools Whore
Sign Bonds!
by Tyler on Oct 7, 2008 8:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Any chance that Price gets a start in this sereies?
by BOHICA_ALEast on Oct 7, 2008 8:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
So, whose spot will Percival will take? Zobrist or Hinske's?
by walkoffwalk on Oct 7, 2008 10:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
"Jason Bay ...no need to beat him to death."
I beg to differ.
by ReasonableDoubt on Oct 7, 2008 10:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Any comments from E-Jack, on his not playing in the post season?
by sternfan1 on Oct 7, 2008 10:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This is quite relevant to the post.
by R.J. Anderson on Oct 7, 2008 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't say another Goddamn word.
Up until now, I’ve been polite. If you say anything else – word one – I will kill myself. And when my tainted spirit finds its destination, I will topple the master of that dark place. From my black throne, I will lash together a machine of bone and blood, and fuled by my hatred for you this fear engine will bore a hole between this world and that one.
When it begins, you will hear the sound of children screaming – as though from a great distance. A smoking orb of nothing will grow above your bed, from it will emerge a thousand starving crows. As I slip through the widening maw in my new form, you will catch only a glimpse of my radiance before you are incinerated. then, as tears of bubbling pitch stream down my face, my dark work will begin.
I will open one of my six mouths, and I will sing the song that ends the Earth.
by kericr on Oct 7, 2008 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what the heck got in your coffee this morning?
by walkoffwalk on Oct 7, 2008 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Such BS starting on Friday
Lester will be able to start game two maybe.
Fucking MLB-we want the sox to win nation.
by plasticman on Oct 7, 2008 10:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Bring it on
I want to take everything they can throw at us just so I don’t have to listen to the whiner Sox fans come back and say they got screwed.
Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 7, 2008 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They should start this thing tomorrow.
Both teams were scheduled to play a game 5 on Wednesday if necessary. Sitting around for 3 days does not make any sense. The last thing baseball needs right now is two days off in the midst of what has been a great playoff season so far.
by Jason Collette on Oct 7, 2008 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
At least they play back to back days
WTF is wrong with the NBA that they cannot play back to back in the playoffs?
Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 7, 2008 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No offense buy what makes you think this has been a great playoff season?
None of the series went to 5 games… No real rivalries…
"Rickey Henderson, pick up the phone, man, it's me... you"
by Daymonster on Oct 7, 2008 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For starters
The best record in both leagues lost
The Rays are going to the ALCS
The Cubs extend their futility
The weak NL West might have the best team in the NL
The ALCS is setting up to be an instant classic
Lastly, The RAYS ARE GOING TO THE ALCS.
Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 7, 2008 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just as a note
If you don’t think that the Rays/Red Sox rivalry hasn’t gotten big really fast, you haven’t been paying much attention this year. These teams have hated each other pretty much ever since the Rays came into existence. Up until this year, the BoSox have usually delivered the beat down in terms of winning season series, winning division titles, winning world championships, winning over Red Sox fans in the Tampa Bay Area, and more-or-less dismissing the Rays as an annoying pest. Unlike other years however, for the first time ever, the Rays actually managed to fight back and give Boston it’s first black-eye in this rivalry with a season-series win and a division title. While this is the most significant development in the rivalry, that doesn’t mean that it wasn’t a major one (at least from this fan’s persepctive) to begin with.
The Main Event is coming up next. Stay tuned.
I’d also say that the collasal failure of the entire city of Chicago is significant, as well as the Dodgers looking like potential world-beaters after spending the first five months of the season sleepwalking through it.
by kericr on Oct 7, 2008 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
MLB is salivating at a LAD/BOS world series. Torre/Manny/Nomar/Lowe ....
by walkoffwalk on Oct 7, 2008 11:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Not to mention the TV markets for both
by Jason Collette on Oct 7, 2008 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Allan is jacking it as we speak to this very notion
Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 7, 2008 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Allan Selig
Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 7, 2008 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Selig
Of all the major sports, he has the most disdain for this area. I hope he is NOT WELCOMED here if he does show up. He deserves to be BOOED lustfully for his naievete and ignorance.
Its all about money for “Allan”. He doesn’t give a crap about anyone. I would hope is rudely treated by Stu and Matt, but I doubt it. This man is a putz.
Joe
by joedobr on Oct 7, 2008 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good Luck Rays...
My least favorite teams both have the word “Sox” in them… continue making me happy..
"Rickey Henderson, pick up the phone, man, it's me... you"
by Daymonster on Oct 7, 2008 12:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
To whom it may concern
I have compiled the Pitch f/x data by count for Jon Lester. I thought I would do this based on the fact that it seems like he never lets a leadoff guy on and has been their best pitcher over the last month+. LINK It should be open to edit and there is a lot of information to be gleaned I just don’t have the time for a proper write-up or analysis. Feel free to do what you like. There are 2 sheets with the first being the data and the second being a summary.
Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 7, 2008 1:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You need to lock this down.
I can edit it.
by kericr on Oct 7, 2008 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's the point
If you want to do your own sorts or on another sheet compile pitch percentages or whatever. There is a lot of gold in there I just don’t have the time right now. Example, he almost never throws his change with 2 strikes.
Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 7, 2008 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The dome will be packed with loud Rays fans who can outshout the few brave Red Sox fans that find tickets.
Few brave Red Sox fans?, There are more Red Sox fans at the games than Rays fan in the regular season, The average attendance for the Rays was under 12,000 fans.
by redsoxchat on Oct 7, 2008 6:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It's not 2007 or earlier anymore. Did you watch any of the Sox vs. Rays games at the Trop this year?
Or are you one of those not-from-Boston fans who still believes in Red Sox Superiority?
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Oct 7, 2008 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Except it was actually 22,000.
But don’t let facts get in the way of your idiocy.
by R.J. Anderson on Oct 7, 2008 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
screw you and your numbers
(hadn’t posted that in a while)
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Oct 7, 2008 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Time for a sane Red Sox fan
Hi guys,
This is going to be a hellava series.
I think the Sox are going to take a tight seven game series. In a short series, it usually comes down to pitching, and while the Rays have deeper pitching, I think the Sox are a little deeper at the top of the rotation.
I’m expecting to see Ellsbury single, steal second, sac fly to third and sac fly home in the 12th inning of game 7 for a 4-3 win.
Even as a Sox fan, as many of you know, I have high regard for the Rays. I hvae a bad feeling that the standings this season in the AL East will look pretty much the same for the next few years.
The truth will set you free, but first it will piss you off.
by pocket8pin on Oct 7, 2008 8:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
definetly agree with you on that the al east is going to be like this at least the next 5-7 years
just wait until all of baltimore’s prospects develop, this division in 2 years could be the deepest division in baseball with all 5 teams capable of making the playoffs
YOUR 2008 AL EAST DIVISION CHAMPIONS.... THE TAMPA BAY RAYS!!!
by RaysOfHope on Oct 7, 2008 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Ellsbury does all that in game 7
Then Gross is going to hit a 2 run bomb to win it in the bottom of the inning. Pap Smear be warned.
Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 8, 2008 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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