Umpire Check

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 9, 2008 10:31 PM EDT Comment 12 comments

Something new for the ALCS; a look at the umpires and their tendencies. Unfortunately I don't have Pitchf/x data for each of them and cannot tell you whether the strike percentages are due to great pitching or simply a tight or loose zone, but what can you do at this point?

Tim McClelland - 42.7% strikes (79th of 83 umpires)
Derryl Cousins - 43.5% strikes (70th of 83 umpires)
Alfonso Marquez - 43.9% strikes (54th of 83 umpires)
Brian Gorman - 45.3% strikes (13th of 83 umpires)
Brian O'Nora - 44.8% strikes (21st of 83 umpires)
Sam Holbrook - 43.8% strikes (61st of 83 umpires)

Only ~2.5 percent separates the top of the pack from the very back. In fact there's only a standard deviation of 0.012 throughout the list. Here's a look at the BB9 and SO9 ratios:

McClelland - 4 BB9 6.18 SO9
Cousins - 3.7 BB9 6.39 SO9
Marquez - 4 BB9 6.68 SO9
Gorman - 2.95 BB9 6.95 SO9
O'Nora - 3.03 BB9 6.84 SO9
Holbrook - 3.54 BB9 6.69 SO9

These numbers really don't mean a lot. Some umpires might have gotten a better cut of aces than others and some simply had to call the games with a ton of walks. The Rays have some history with McClelland (see: Sammy Sosa corked bat) and Cousins (see: Kazmir explodes) the other names don't jump out as having anything big with the Rays. In other words: no Jerry Meals.

Reference

Baseball Prospectus

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Comments

Meals is doing the NLCS,

by walkoffwalk on Oct 9, 2008 10:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

McClelland is known for having a very tight, albeit consistent zone. He is DiceK’s nightmare.

by Buzzy on Oct 10, 2008 10:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The ones I worry about are

Kazmir getting squeezed and if Sonny gets a liberal zone he could throw a no-no. Shields and Garz seem pretty adaptable for the most part. Lester nibbles, Matsuzaka is all over, if Beckett can’t throw the Curve for strikes he is doomed, and obviously Wakefield is all over. Tight zones could be to our advantage, but as always as long as it is consistent there is nothing to bitch about.

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 10, 2008 10:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Where’s Eric Gregg when you need him.

The truth will set you free, but first it will piss you off.

by pocket8pin on Oct 10, 2008 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Deceased

-Ham Sandwich

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 10, 2008 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agree about Beckett, Dice-K. In fact, if you watched Beckett’s last start, he could not get the curve over at all, and he stopped throwing it. His velocity was also down, and he threw 2 batting practice pitches to Napoli. Kazmir is basically the same as Dice K this year anyway (not the same pitcher, but similar in the number of pitches that he throws just to get inot the 6th, if he does). Totally disagree about Lester. Until May of this year he nibbled. Now he pounds the zone.

by Buzzy on Oct 10, 2008 10:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Here's some number's I put together using Josh Kalk's data

LINK

As you can see him pounding the zone comes mainly with 2 strikes. Until that point it would appear he likes to nibble and induce swings. I can look at the data again differentiating swinging strikes, fouls, and called strikes to see if this is the case, but for the most part he doesn’t mind falling behind it seems.

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 10, 2008 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, that seems to be the way Veritek calls it with Lester on the mound, but he would not be my definition of a nibbler either. Regardless, he does not walk a ton of batters. Since May 1 he has averaged close to 61/2 innings per start, and walked a grand total of 9 hitters in June and July combined. I do see your point about pitch sequence.

by Buzzy on Oct 10, 2008 11:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

There is a difference between nibbling and walking guys

If he gets borderline calls early in the count he can throw unhittable pitches. If the ump isn’t giving him the black and beyond he has to throw something over. It’s that simple.

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 10, 2008 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, see above, as I said I see your point. However you make is sound like an ump-influenced thing, which is silly. Lester has been one of the most consistent pitchers in the AL since May. That would be a lot of different umps giving out those “borderline” pitches (as opposed to the umps that are “squeezing” Kazmir, hmmm). I guess you could call him a nibbler with very good control, as opposed to Dice K, who is a nibbler with bad control ;)

by Buzzy on Oct 10, 2008 11:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Use the reply button from here on out

by kericr on Oct 10, 2008 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Over the Long-Run, yes.

Over one event it can make a difference. This series could come down to 1-2 important pitches per game. 1-1 vs. 2-0, 2-2 vs. 3-1 these calls have enormous implications in the outcome of an AB, Inning, Game. As long as it is consistent and both teams can adjust you won’t hear a peep out of me.

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 10, 2008 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs