So, Austin Kearns Anyone?
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 11, 2008 9:10 AM EST
54 comments
The Nats acquired Josh Willingham (and a crappy pitcher) for Emilio Bonifacio and two prospects, leaving them with Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Willie Harris, Austin Kearns, and Wily Mo Pena on the outs. Even if Willingham is shifted to first to replace annual paraplegic Nick Johnson the Nats are still looking at a bit of a log jam. Kearns makes the most of the potential benched players (8 mil in 2009, then 10 mil club option) which would probably be eaten by the Nats in exchange for a slightly better return. That or Kearns could be waived and (or) released, which would leave the Rays paying less than 400k (assuming the Nats would try to sneak him through on irrevocable outright waivers and send him to the minors. Not a guarantee) for his services in 2008 and able to decline his option (1 mil buyout) in 2010.
Why would the Rays want Kearns? Well Sean Smith has Kearns worth 7 runs in a corner outfield position, so nearly a win. Plus Kearns' wOBA* the past three years are, as follows in recent-to-past order: .302, .352, .372. That's from a right-handed hitter in his prime with plus defense. To give you an idea of where that puts Kearns amongst outfielders, Matt Kemp's wOBA* this season was .353, and that's without the sexy defense.
If the Nats decide to move Harris (14 runs in the corners) the Rays should probably at least inquire. Over his last ~800 PAs he's shown the ability to be a .350 wOBA* player, and that's with some unlucky ball in play data last season. Mo Pena? I'd rather not see him as an outfielder, and I'm unsure his bat plays well as a part-time DH.
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If we get Mr. Kearns
We had better invest in some sort of system to get people off the turf and to the hospital immediately. Perhaps some sort of suction system like at the bank drivethrough. That guy is always hurt with something. What good is a projection for 600 PA’s when you know he will be good for about 300? I don’t mean to rant, but Kearns represents a guy that could have been a phenomenal ballplayer about 3-4 years ago and because he didn’t keep himself in shape, or whatever the reason behind his myriad of injuries, he will go down as just another failed promise.
Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found
a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up
that much.
~George Costanza~
by Sandy Kazmir on Nov 11, 2008 9:20 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
He's gotten 600 PAs two of the past three seasons.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 11, 2008 9:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't see that 06 was split
From 2003-08 he averages 451.5.
Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found
a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up
that much.
~George Costanza~
by Sandy Kazmir on Nov 11, 2008 9:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
One of our alternatives is Rocco Baldelli.
I think getting 450 PAs from a possible part-time player is fine.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 11, 2008 9:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Provided Bowden foots the bill
Right?
Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found
a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up
that much.
~George Costanza~
by Sandy Kazmir on Nov 11, 2008 9:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely, I wouldn't pay him 8 mil.
We can do better for 8 mil.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 11, 2008 9:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sure this would end up stratified such that
They cover We give up
7M Wade Davis
6M Hellboy
5M Perez
4M Jaso
etc etc.
The names aren’t right, but I’m sure there would be some sort of negotiation like that. I don’t see us spending more that 6-8M this offseason, post-arb, so I just want to make sure we spend it appropriately. Something like this doesn’t help much because we trade short-term cash flexibility for long-term talent drain. Neither of which is a likely scenario with Captain Amazing and His Associates at the helm.
Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found
a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up
that much.
~George Costanza~
by Sandy Kazmir on Nov 11, 2008 9:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Depends on how bad they want some form of compensation for Kearns.
They could always outright him and lose him for 20k while paying most of his salary and getting zero talent in return. Or they could bench him and pay 8 mil.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 11, 2008 9:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"(and a crappy pitcher)"
Sarcasm? His ERA+ has been at 100 3 of his 4 seasons, and the one bad year was due to being extremely unlucky. Yes, his ratios seriously deteriorated this year, but I suspect that was due to extrinsic factors and that he’ll be able to bounce back. I’d be willing to bet Olsen’s an above-average pitcher next year and one of their top 2 starters.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Nov 11, 2008 10:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Career tRA+
95
107
70
87
—-
Career LD%+.12/BABIP
0.258 0.306
0.302 0.285
0.357 0.35
0.322 0.266
—-
He’s not good, and his velocity dropped last year.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 11, 2008 10:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So, how is TRA supposed to be a good predictor of future performance?
It seems to vary as much as ERA.
by rglass44 on Nov 11, 2008 10:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Have you had the chance to run correlations for TRA yet?
by rglass44 on Nov 11, 2008 11:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It was about 0.75 when I checked it by hand a couple of years ago.
by Graham on Nov 11, 2008 11:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ERA is a bit lower isn't it? Like .3 something I seem to recall.
by rglass44 on Nov 11, 2008 11:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, I stand corrected.
How does it compare to other defense-independent metrics? Probably not quite as well because there are more moving parts, but .75 is pretty good.
by rglass44 on Nov 11, 2008 11:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's on the top end, and easily the highest readily available one.
by Graham on Nov 11, 2008 11:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's great
Now, I am an unabashed supporter of RJ proportions. That was the one question I had about it before completely selling out as a tRA junky.
by rglass44 on Nov 11, 2008 11:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
THT did a review of their projection system + 3 others
I would definitely check it out. HERE Chone seems to do the best with batters and Pecota does the best with pitchers. THT is somewhere in the middle on both.
Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found
a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up
that much.
~George Costanza~
by Sandy Kazmir on Nov 11, 2008 11:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We were discussing the predictive value of past metrics on future metrics.
Although, that THT article is pretty interesting, it isn’t really related.
by rglass44 on Nov 11, 2008 11:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's tangential and informative as far as who you would put stock in going forward
Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found
a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up
that much.
~George Costanza~
by Sandy Kazmir on Nov 11, 2008 11:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"seems", huh?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Nov 11, 2008 8:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
one of their top 2 starters
I could be that. Although, I agree that Olsen is probably better than RJ is giving him credit for.
by rglass44 on Nov 11, 2008 10:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If he were on their staff last year he would've ranked 7th in SP tRA.
Behind Odalis Perez.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 11, 2008 10:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A 24 year old who had was above average at 22
The reason his tRA is so low this year is his Ks were down significantly. Three years ago he posted a BB rate under 4 and a K rate over 8. This is the type of player that we applaud the Rays FO for acquiring, especially for peanuts.
There is no way he can succeed with a K/rate of 5, but I’m sure the Nationals are counting on some type of regression back towards his minor league/early career numbers. If he doesn’t then it is not a big loss.
by tallyray on Nov 11, 2008 12:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You're weighting 1 data point from 3 years ago too highly
He has been terrible for two of the past three seasons. It’s a big worry, especially with a drop in FB speed
by Graham on Nov 11, 2008 12:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll agree with that...
There are two differences instead of just one…
His GB% has decreased each of the past two seasons along with the Ks and I see where that has also caused a significant issue.
Are those the two reasons he’s gone from a good pitcher to an awful one?
2007 was a terrible season for Olsen. His Ks and GBs dropped and his BB increased. It was awful. Last year his Ks continued to fall but he started to throw more strikes.
As a 24 year old are you all saying that he’s unlikely to improve on what seems to be rock bottom? He surely can’t get worse in the K-rate and if he does he’ll be out of a job.
by tallyray on Nov 11, 2008 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He's likely to improve, yeah
But improvement from being one of the worst pitchers in the game isn’t a particularly noteworthy accomplishment. On top of that, he’s starting to get expensive. Three years from now, he’s a free agent. Time is not on Washington’s side here.
by Graham on Nov 11, 2008 1:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No, we applaud the Rays for acquiring pitchers soured upon because of luck issues.
Olsen doesn’t have that, but he does have a nice string of declining strikeout rates.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 11, 2008 12:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If Olsen's TRA doesn't bounce back this year, I'll eat my shoe
or at least a shoe fly pie. I think this is going to be a classic case of thriving due to a change of scenery, together with getting healthy.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Nov 11, 2008 12:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
His tRA* were in the 5s the past two seasons.
I would be shocked if he has a tRA below 4.9 in 2009, especially with a velocity loss and the possibility of being stabbed by Elijah.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 11, 2008 12:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm no biomechanics expert*
But the drop in velocity makes me fear for his shoulder.
*This is a lie
by Graham on Nov 11, 2008 12:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps he's incorrectly loading the scapula?
Or prorating his wrist too early?
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 11, 2008 12:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Over supination is going to destroy his elbow in the next 3-5 weeks
Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found
a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up
that much.
~George Costanza~
by Sandy Kazmir on Nov 11, 2008 12:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Low risk, high reward...
Is what Olsen is. Similar to Edwin Jackson (whom I dislike) when he was acquired.
The worse case situation is that Olsen continues his decline and is useless after five starts. He could also become a slightly below average starter and give the Nationals a back of the rotation starter for the next couple years. Or he could miraculously revert back to something around ’06 levels and be above average.
I just don’t see how picking up Olsen as basically a throw in is a bad move by the Nationals or that Olsen is automatically worthless. tRA gives us what we should expect based on what he did last year but that’s assuming Olsen is a finished product or will continue his decline at such a young age.
by tallyray on Nov 11, 2008 1:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yes
I like Mr Kearns. I think he just needs to see a winning team for once, and he might really play… I went to a Reds-Braves game back in 2004 or so, and saw BP, and the crack coming from Kearns’ bat was most impressive.
by daveh33 on Nov 11, 2008 1:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
what about nick johnson for DH?
i have heard that the nats are thinking about putting hammer at 1b and they have sent dmitri to the minors for being delmons brother, what is his contract situation
man i wish that elijah dukes wasnt so god damn crazy, otherwises i would love to have him back and wouldve loved to see him and gomer beat up on coco and elijah whisper you dead dog in his ear lol
everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds
by RaysOfHope on Nov 11, 2008 1:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
and im talking about nick johnson's contract situation not dmitri
everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds
by RaysOfHope on Nov 11, 2008 1:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Willingham for EJax
I would love to see Willingham as our RF in the next years!
I also think that the Nats would benefit from a EJax <—> Willingham swap (They need an upgrade in their rotation and already have a lot of OF (Milledge, Kearns, Dukes, Harris) and they could be in on Dunn and try to compete in ’09 (with a lot of luck)!
What do you think? Good idea? Is EJax enough?
by BurGi on Nov 11, 2008 1:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
i think that is a good idea, edwin has upside and the nats have time for his upside to fully develop (if he ever does fully develop into his ceiling)
or maybe even ejax for kearns
everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds
by RaysOfHope on Nov 11, 2008 1:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Think EJax for Kearns is tooo risky … but when the Nats take 2/3 of Kearns’ contract …
by BurGi on Nov 11, 2008 1:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
By the way: How is Willinghams knee? Is he at least average in RF?
by BurGi on Nov 11, 2008 2:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
… and about Nick Johnson and other DH possibilities like Milton Bradley:
I would like it much more to get a RF as I would love to keep Rocco and I am not sure whether he is healthy enough to at least platoon with Gross in RF!
So: RF: Gross against RHP/Willingham against LHP; DH: Willingham against RHP/Rocco against LHP
… and FPerez, Ruggiano, Zobrist (RF) and Aybar (DH) as decent backups on that possitions!
by BurGi on Nov 11, 2008 2:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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