Swisher to Yanks

You have got to be kidding me. This is redic. We could have given them less than Talbot for him?

Marquez last year as a 24 YO in AAA. 3.68/1.49 K/BB, 4.85 tRA*.

This sucks.

7 months ago rglass44 Comment 85 comments 0 recs |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Chris Mason for Swisher

by Tommy Rancel on Nov 13, 2008 3:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It's not yet known if other players are in the deal though.

I will bet that there are others involved. Austin Jackson would be pleasant.

There are SO MANY teams that could’ve and probably wanted to top that offer.

This.

by Blicks on Nov 13, 2008 3:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Swisher isn't that good.

The Yankees won’t go anywhere until they sure up their defense and pitching.

www.raysbb.com

Yes, we really do have fans.

by killa3312 on Nov 13, 2008 4:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

According to this year's metrics, Swisher was actually a plus defender

Not sure if I believe them though.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 13, 2008 4:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Swisher shouldn't play CF

but at a corner OF spot or 1B, he’s livable.

This.

by Blicks on Nov 13, 2008 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yup.

+1.5 wins off
-.75 wins LF/RF
+.25 wins field
+2.5 wins replace
= 3.5 WAR player, maybe 3.0 with regression

Why do the Yankees want a LF/RF/DH/1B type?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 13, 2008 5:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Are those numbers going solely off last year?

by rglass44 on Nov 13, 2008 5:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They are solely out of my arse.

Not scientific, at least. But not just off last year, either, when Swisher was below-average offensively. He was about +2 wins with the bat in 06 and 07.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 13, 2008 5:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

by rglass44 on Nov 13, 2008 5:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ugh

Another rosterbation target, Gregg, also got traded for peanuts (Jose Ceda).

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 13, 2008 4:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

At this rate we could get Dye for Hammel and get Williams to pay Dye's salary

by Tommy Rancel on Nov 13, 2008 4:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Swisher due $20,000,000 over the next three years

Could be just a straight salary dump. He’s hit better as a righty the last 3 years and now goes to a park that deflates RH power numbers.

by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2008 4:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

how do you know this?

no games played there yet…

Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Nov 13, 2008 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Same dimensions.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 13, 2008 4:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm trying to figure out...

how Swisher goes from the cavernous Oakland Mosoleum where he had a 127 OPS+ and moves to the coziest ballpark in the American League and put up a 92 OPS+

by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2008 4:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm trying to figure out...

How Kenny Williams justifies trading two top-40 prospects for this guy a year ago, then trades him back away for a prospect with a #4 starter ceiling.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 13, 2008 4:07 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Bad luck

by Tommy Rancel on Nov 13, 2008 4:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Luck.

This.

by Blicks on Nov 13, 2008 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Poor luck.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 13, 2008 4:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Less than good luck.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Nov 13, 2008 4:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That sucks badly

Swisher will play CF for the Yanks and rebound next year! Hope there are good players involved! Otherwise this is a joke and really bad for us! Would’ve loved to see Swish in our RF!

by BurGi on Nov 13, 2008 4:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If the Yankees are dumb enough to stick him in center

then the move probably helps us. Once you account for defense, Melky is probably a better CF than Swisher.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 13, 2008 4:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Surprisingly, no.

And playing Swisher in center vs. a corner spot only affects his value by a few runs. +5 in RF is the same as -5 in CF.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 13, 2008 5:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

you are forgetting the oppurtunity cost of playing him in one vs. the other

Lame econ term I know, but it fits. Him in CF and Damon in LF is much worse than him in LF and a decent CF option.

by rglass44 on Nov 13, 2008 5:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How about Damon in center (with Swisher in left)?

Should be about the same, unless one or both of Swisher/Damon have skillsets that make them relatively better at one position or the other beyond the usual expected difference.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 13, 2008 5:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Damon can't play CF at this point

He’s slowed down, and his arm is worse than a wet noodle.

by rglass44 on Nov 13, 2008 5:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Him throwing puts a smile on my face.

First-to-third is one of my favorite little things to the game.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found
a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up
that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Nov 13, 2008 6:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

His arm is a wet noodle no matter where you put him.

And while he’d be below-average in center, he’s not Griffey-like, yet.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 15, 2008 1:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, but...

You’re forgetting about the missed opportunity cost.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 14, 2008 10:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And if I actually read rglass's statement

He said the exact same thing. I’m a tard.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 14, 2008 10:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ESPN Headline: "Yanks send three to ChiSox"

by BurGi on Nov 13, 2008 4:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It's Betemit and Nunoz in addition to Marquez! EJax and a second prospect would've done it for us ... maybe the salary was too high!

by BurGi on Nov 13, 2008 4:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It was 20MM over three years.

Actually below market value.

This.

by Blicks on Nov 13, 2008 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

BABIP of .251 with a LD% of 20.9. That’s “unlucky” by .082. His slash line was .219/.332/.410/.742. Turn 8 of those outs into hits (to align with about the right BABIP) and his average goes up to .226. His OPS if those hits were only singles goes up to .758. That is a bit more respectable.

by rglass44 on Nov 13, 2008 4:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

How much do park effect hurt him now?

US Cellular inflates LHB HRs by 40% and RHB HR’s by 26%
Yankees Stadium inflated LHB HR by 19% and is negligible for RHB HR

His career BABIP is .277 so .251 is not terribly off for him.

by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2008 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's somewhat driven by this year

4 full MLB years BABIPs: .266, .287, .308, .251.

by rglass44 on Nov 13, 2008 4:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

oh come on, Sox

Well on the bright side, Swisher will probably suck in CF and if they got him for 1B then no Tex to the Yankees!

by joeybw on Nov 13, 2008 4:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

But that probably means CC to the Yankees.

This.

by Blicks on Nov 13, 2008 4:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

According to ESPN they got "Tex"

Kanekoa Texeira

I could be wrong though

by staplemaniac on Nov 13, 2008 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Figured I'd chime in

I can’t imagine this takes Tex out of play for the Yanks – they’re more likely looking at Swish for his flexibility – possible platooning in CF or replacing Abreu in RF, or then Damon from mix in ‘10. At 1B he’s a fallback option. Kind of a Giambi replacement with less O, much better D.

Probably just providing cover for multiple possibilities – nothing in FA is guaranteed.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Nov 13, 2008 4:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I wish we would hurry up and trade for a RF and BP arm

already

I could be wrong though

by staplemaniac on Nov 13, 2008 4:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

i don't understand how BABIP is luck for a hitter? Are you guys saying Tony Gwynn and Wade Boggs were lucky every year?

by walkoffwalk on Nov 13, 2008 5:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

No, they just aimed better.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 13, 2008 5:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

no, or maybe they knew how to hit line drives.

by walkoffwalk on Nov 13, 2008 5:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's what they're saying. Swisher hit a lot of line drives and his BABIP was still low. Which is why they're saying he was unlucky.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Nov 13, 2008 5:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

why do you think line drives are luck?

by walkoffwalk on Nov 13, 2008 5:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The line drives are not lucky. But hitting them at fielders regularly is bad luck.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Nov 13, 2008 5:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Are you saying aiming is not a tool?

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 13, 2008 5:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

okay. i admit swisher was unlucky because his LD% was his highest this year than last year. and his BABIP went down by .50 points...

by walkoffwalk on Nov 13, 2008 5:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

luck is the only explanation for LD% to increase and BABIP to decrease so hard.

by walkoffwalk on Nov 13, 2008 5:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He forgot how to aim.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 13, 2008 5:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wish Kenny Williams didn't forget to call Friedman before pulling off this deal. :(

by walkoffwalk on Nov 13, 2008 5:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Or we're not adding payroll.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Nov 13, 2008 5:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Swisher for 3 years $22 mill wouldn't be too bad, but, it's not my money.

by walkoffwalk on Nov 13, 2008 5:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Relatively speaking, no, but we don't have money to spend it appears.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Nov 13, 2008 5:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd say 2-3MM.

Which is why he gets traded.

This.

by Blicks on Nov 13, 2008 8:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Or he's pissed off that Balfour owned his SS in the ALDS.

Bitter remorse.

This.

by Blicks on Nov 13, 2008 8:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Tony Gwynn, yes

Wade Boggs’ average was artificially inflated by pulling balls off the monster for half his career.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 14, 2008 10:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If you hit the ball hard a lot and they don't go for hits, that's unlucky.

If you do not hit the ball hard (texas leaguers) and a lot of balls you make contact on go for hits, you were lucky. Pretty simple actually.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Nov 13, 2008 5:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's not, in many ways.

For pitchers, if you see a BABIP outside of .290 to .310, you know something’s weird. But for hitters, that range of true skill is more like .250 to .350. So just seeing a .260 BABIP shouldn’t scream bad luck.

But there’s a strong correlation between LD% and BABIP, since LDs turn into hits more than 80% of the time. So if LD% is high, but BABIP is low, then you can scream bad luck.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 13, 2008 5:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

how is this the best kenny williams could get for Swish?

by walkoffwalk on Nov 13, 2008 5:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It's not.

This.

by Blicks on Nov 13, 2008 8:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

it's not?

by walkoffwalk on Nov 13, 2008 11:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

only good that could come out of this is perhaps the yankees don't sign Mark Texeira.

by walkoffwalk on Nov 13, 2008 5:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

looks like cashman got around to reading moneyball.

by walkoffwalk on Nov 13, 2008 6:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I don't think Cashman has been the problem

He’s just faced incredible amounts of pressure from the Steinbrenners, the media, etc. If left to his own, I think Cashman would run the team a lot more conservatively and build from within more than he does now. He finally put his foot down last year and refused to trade Kennedy and Hughes (sucks that it didn’t work out right away for him…although it’s good for us).

"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige

by Steve Slowinski on Nov 13, 2008 6:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We already have Swisher

His name is Gomes. Swisher is extremely overrated

Swisher isnt worth 7 mill a year

by selgy on Nov 13, 2008 6:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Swisher actually plays a passable corner outfield.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 13, 2008 6:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And isn't Gomes likely a non-tender?

by nyyfaninlaaland on Nov 13, 2008 7:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I think so.

This.

by Blicks on Nov 13, 2008 8:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I see Friedman looking for a deal (cash most likely) until he absolutely has to non-tender him.

May or may not find one, but yeah, I’d say Gomes is likely done here, despite the regression that’s forthcoming.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 13, 2008 8:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

is this a joke?

by walkoffwalk on Nov 13, 2008 8:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not really

Look at the numbers – offensively, Gomes and Swisher aren’t really that far apart. The biggest difference is that Swisher can sometimes hit righties well.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 14, 2008 10:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Please look at some stats.

This.

by Blicks on Nov 13, 2008 8:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Welcome over Selgy

Nice to see you round these parts.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 14, 2008 10:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just as long as he conforms with everyone kissing up to me.

Because that’s rule #1.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 14, 2008 12:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It appears there's a lot of teams looking at serious budget retrenchment

The White Sox appear to be trying to lower payroll – Vasquez is supposedly on the market among others. The Padres with Moores’ divorce very much so, and many other clubs appear to be trying to hold the line as well due to economic uncertainty. And of course there’s the Marlins, who seem to think that revenue sharing is designed to finance their stadium costs. The only people who don’t seem seem to expect this are Scott Boras and some agents.

We could be in for some surprises in terms of offered contact terms this offseason. Look at the offer the Dodgers made to Manny for example. And how many other teams will be that motivated to acquire him, or have the available cash? Could be some posturing going on as well by owners to depress the market, but I wonder how this will play out.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Nov 13, 2008 8:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs