The Free Agent DH Market
In a little under an hour, the MLB Free Agency period will begin. Amidst the millions and millions and years and years of contracts, (hopefully) one lucky fellow will be called upon to serve in the Rays army as the designated batsman. After taking a look at the players available in the market, I put together a list of "DHs" and their respective Bill James' projections. I also added wOBA, so RJ doesn't beat me over the head for not using properly sanctioned statistics.
Here's a table showing the projections sorted in descending order by wOBA:
| Player | Age | Type | G | AB | H | 2B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | Avg | OBP | Slg | OPS | wOBA |
| Ramirez, Manny | 36 | A | 150 | 552 | 166 | 34 | 34 | 95 | 113 | 88 | 125 | .301 | .404 | .551 | .955 | .407 |
| Dunn, Adam | 29 | A | 159 | 562 | 138 | 30 | 42 | 100 | 103 | 122 | 183 | .246 | .386 | .527 | .913 | .390 |
| Bradley, Milton | 30 | B | 123 | 442 | 127 | 27 | 20 | 72 | 68 | 70 | 108 | .287 | .391 | .489 | .879 | .382 |
| Burrell, Pat | 32 | 157 | 537 | 136 | 29 | 32 | 78 | 98 | 104 | 145 | .253 | .377 | .490 | .867 | .377 | |
| Giambi, Jason | 37 | 136 | 446 | 109 | 20 | 29 | 70 | 86 | 89 | 113 | .244 | .388 | .484 | .873 | .373 | |
| Abreu, Bobby | 34 | A | 159 | 604 | 173 | 41 | 19 | 104 | 100 | 98 | 125 | .286 | .389 | .455 | .844 | .372 |
| Griffey, Ken | 38 | B | 127 | 412 | 105 | 21 | 20 | 57 | 64 | 58 | 81 | .255 | .351 | .451 | .802 | .350 |
| Thomas, Frank | 40 | B | 111 | 349 | 85 | 14 | 17 | 41 | 56 | 58 | 75 | .244 | .358 | .430 | .787 | .346 |
| Ibanez, Raul | 36 | A | 159 | 623 | 173 | 36 | 22 | 84 | 100 | 60 | 111 | .278 | .343 | .448 | .791 | .345 |
| Rivera, Juan | 30 | 99 | 317 | 89 | 20 | 13 | 40 | 52 | 21 | 41 | .281 | .327 | .467 | .794 | .342 | |
| Floyd, Cliff | 35 | 81 | 256 | 67 | 14 | 11 | 36 | 38 | 29 | 55 | .262 | .353 | .445 | .798 | .342 | |
| Garciaparra, Nomar | 35 | 76 | 179 | 51 | 10 | 6 | 25 | 28 | 13 | 16 | .285 | .344 | .453 | .796 | .342 | |
| Baldelli, Rocco | 27 | 103 | 312 | 87 | 18 | 12 | 47 | 44 | 20 | 64 | .279 | .330 | .465 | .795 | .340 | |
| Kent, Jeff | 40 | A | 140 | 519 | 143 | 31 | 17 | 64 | 78 | 48 | 74 | .276 | .344 | .437 | .781 | .339 |
| Gonzalez, Luis | 41 | B | 125 | 313 | 81 | 20 | 9 | 40 | 42 | 42 | 41 | .259 | .354 | .415 | .769 | .338 |
| Casey, Sean | 34 | 92 | 195 | 57 | 12 | 3 | 22 | 24 | 17 | 21 | .292 | .361 | .400 | .761 | .334 | |
| Hinske, Eric | 31 | 123 | 339 | 83 | 21 | 14 | 51 | 47 | 41 | 84 | .245 | .332 | .437 | .768 | .333 | |
| Millar, Kevin | 37 | 129 | 407 | 103 | 23 | 14 | 53 | 55 | 52 | 77 | .253 | .348 | .413 | .760 | .333 | |
| Blake, Casey | 35 | B | 110 | 336 | 87 | 20 | 12 | 45 | 44 | 31 | 77 | .259 | .336 | .432 | .768 | .329 |
| Anderson, Garret | 36 | B | 140 | 525 | 148 | 30 | 16 | 62 | 83 | 28 | 79 | .282 | .318 | .434 | .753 | .327 |
| Norton, Greg | 36 | 115 | 162 | 40 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 22 | 23 | 41 | .247 | .341 | .389 | .729 | .327 | |
| Ward, Daryle | 33 | 99 | 176 | 44 | 11 | 6 | 18 | 28 | 19 | 36 | .250 | .327 | .415 | .741 | .325 | |
| Loretta, Mark | 37 | A | 90 | 245 | 69 | 13 | 3 | 28 | 25 | 23 | 26 | .282 | .355 | .371 | .727 | .322 |
| Clark, Tony | 36 | 92 | 152 | 35 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 26 | 19 | 49 | .230 | .320 | .414 | .734 | .321 | |
| Aurilia, Rich | 37 | 114 | 335 | 90 | 18 | 9 | 39 | 41 | 25 | 49 | .269 | .323 | .409 | .732 | .320 | |
| Boone, Aaron | 35 | 86 | 204 | 49 | 10 | 6 | 25 | 26 | 16 | 43 | .240 | .317 | .377 | .695 | .297 |
Obviously, some of these guys will cost more than others, as well as be more desirable than others. So, let's take a look at a few that I think would be good signs (for whatever that's worth).
- Adam Dunn/Milton Bradley: These two players are the best we could hope to afford. They are very similar in that they both have a perceived negative value due to "attitude" or "character" issues. Additionally, both can play the field but shouldn't. Dunn's horrid defense and Bradley's injury issues should force them both into DH roles. Maybe their predetermined roles, coupled with their "character flaws," could land them in the Bay area for a discount. Both are on-base machines that could really add some pop to the lineup. Bradley is preferred, though, because of his status as a Type B free agent.
- Giambi/Thomas: These two old sluggers should never, ever see the field for any team of the living. They both man the easiest position in baseball like the undead at this point, and they have definitely seen better days. They are both power bats with great eyes. If they can give us 120 games you can expect an OBP approaching .380 with 30 bombs. I love Giambi for the fact that he is a type B.
- Juan Rivera/Raul Ibanez: These two soon-to-be-former-AL-West-Rivals are both butchers in the field (notice a theme). Neither get on base like the aforementioned sluggers, but they do hit for power and SHOULD hit for decent averages. Ibanez will likely net a bigger contract when some foolish team thinks he can play RF (cough..Mets..cough). He's also a Type A, and older, so I am really warming up to Rivera.
- ATTENTION BARGAIN SHOPPERS (Blake, Millar, Casey, Kent, Norton, etc.): These players all have flaws. That's why they'll likely be cheap. One of them, however, may be the F.A.T. that RJ so dearly craves. A few are type A, so I'd stay away from them, but there may be some real value here.
- Everyone else that I did not notice or think worthy to mention may also come into play. I might have mentioned Hinske last year, but probably not. Pena the year before? Doubtful. So who knows what F.A.T. the RFO may bring in that will seem unexciting at first? Who knows, they may win a Silver Slugger a la Pena two years ago.
Let's discuss, and count the names as they get signed up!
0 recs |
50 comments
Comments
Rivera jumped off the page to me.
He’s still not a good defender and hacks and I’m not sold on him as a DH.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 13, 2008 11:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Bradley plz
Dunn is gonna wind up making much more and he is another lefty while Bradley is a switch hitter who I would still trust more to randomly play the field than Dunn.
by joeybw on Nov 13, 2008 11:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
they didn't want to add payroll for swisher (3/$22)
by walkoffwalk on Nov 13, 2008 11:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not that I agree with it or understand why
but maybe they simply they did not go after Swisher? Friedman knows he needs a RF and/or DH as well as a lefty reliever and he not going to just ignore that.
by joeybw on Nov 14, 2008 12:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd go for someone who can also play the field
No Travis Hafner types on the Rays, I’m not a big fan of locking up the DH spot for one player.
by sofladude77 on Nov 13, 2008 11:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I understand not wanting Travis Hafner types
I wouldn’t touch any of those DHs on a Hafner-type contract.
However, if they’re coming cheaper than their alternatives who can play the field, which they should, then I say try to land one.
This.
by Blicks on Nov 14, 2008 12:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
NOMAAAAHHHHHH
On the cheap he is very desirable, not so much if he costs more than 5M.
Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found
a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up
that much.
~George Costanza~
by Sandy Kazmir on Nov 14, 2008 12:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
A lot of things are desirable on the cheap.
But yeah, yes to Nomahhhh.
This.
by Blicks on Nov 14, 2008 12:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nothing is jumping out on this list.
Except, as others have stated, Milton Bradley.
I could see him getting a solid multiyear deal, say, 10MM per season, especially since he put up better numbers than Burrell, Abreu, Ibanez, Giambi, etc., AND is a Type B, which means he doesn’t cost a precious draft pick.
I still really, really like Bradley. And, if Bradley is slotted in at DH, then the Rays could go with whomever at RF (Gross, Nando, etc.) . I’d assume the Rays could take on 10MM for Bradley.
This.
by Blicks on Nov 14, 2008 1:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
the thing about Pena
was his youth… younger than almost all of these guys… any of these guys can be Cliff Floyd next year, and maybe better… but I want more of a younger guy who never quite reached his potential but is capable of something really good at a bargain price… which is why I can’t get Kearns off my mind.
of course, depending on the price, I would not at all mind having Bradley’s bat
by daveh33 on Nov 14, 2008 2:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
looking at it again
yeah Dunn and Rocco are the only ones under 30.
Carlos was 28 when we brought him on… not that its a huge deal, but I think it’s a plus to have someone entering/still in his prime, someone maybe a bit hungrier than the wily 35 yo vet….
by daveh33 on Nov 14, 2008 2:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Luis Gonzalez isn't great, but he would be cheap and "coming home"
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 14, 2008 8:15 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
He's a god in Scottsdale.
If he goes anywhere, I’d bet its back to the D’Backs. At least, I’ve heard that’s his preference.
by PlayOnWords on Nov 14, 2008 8:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Health is the hardest thing to predict
But do we want to pay for a full-time DH when we might instead be able to let Rocco play there (and not have to play the field) and even CC at times? A little rest (especially on turf) for our LF might help quite a bit. (of course, this assumes re-signing Rocco) These scenarios both allow some extra time for Perez to see the OF.
I do think we need help with DH, but am not sure we want to shell out for someone that’s going to be a full-time DH. Also, remember that adjusting to a full-time DH role isn’t easy for some players. Picking a guy that has played the field in the past is risky.
by TallMatt on Nov 14, 2008 8:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Giambi plz
w/stache. What does the stache do for wOBA?
by PlayOnWords on Nov 14, 2008 8:53 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
why pay for the original three outcome stache
Maybe Russel Branyan can grow a stache and be our over .370oba threat lol
IF only Harry Carey could be arounde for Kosuke.
by CubFanRaysaddict on Nov 14, 2008 9:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You can't just find that quality of stache in any old place
That’s a premium product.
by PlayOnWords on Nov 14, 2008 9:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
these are tough times
players can’t even afford to chew/dip or even SMOKE (minus kazmir) and we’re talking about premium staches
IF only Harry Carey could be arounde for Kosuke.
by CubFanRaysaddict on Nov 14, 2008 9:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Like that one year where he had like15 hits and 13 homeruns?
something like that
Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found
a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up
that much.
~George Costanza~
by Sandy Kazmir on Nov 15, 2008 9:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
STAAAAACCHHEE!!!!
I love Giambi. And his stache. He’d be interesting.
He fits better for the Rays than he would for the A’s, which is the team that so many people are pinpointing for Giambi, because on the A’s, it would force someone who should be DHing into the field (Giambi or Cust).
But then, money. If Bradley is expensive, Giambi will probably cost much more than that because he’s been healthier than Bradley has been. I could see him getting a 2 year deal north of 10MM/yr, and he’s not a Type A FA.
""Bobby Crosby’s Release" - Sounds like a good title to Mr. Crosby’s first work in his next career now that we know he can’t play baseball." - Joey C.
by Blicks on Nov 14, 2008 9:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd like
Bradley ideally, but the team probably won’t give him the money he wants. Giambi would be my second choice. He does two things, and pretty much only these two things, hit home runs and take walks. And that’s fine by me.
by Erik Hahmann on Nov 14, 2008 9:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
The Rays should sign at least 3 of these players below
I would take any of the following players
1. Adam Dunn DH/RF
2. Jason Giambi DH
3. Pat Burrell RF
4. Ken Griffey Jr. RF/DH put some fans in the seats!
5. Rocco Baldelli RF/DH/ 4th OF
At this point our best bet is to trade for a RH bat!
If I had my preference we would sign Griffey for 5 million and incentives to DH play RF , cut Gabe Gross, sign Baldelli to platoon at the DH/RF with Griffey and sign Giambi or Dunn as insurance.
I know we are loading up with LH power here but the RH power will come with Evan, BJ ,and Rocco playing full healthy seasons!
Devil Rays World Series 2009
by Japhei on Nov 14, 2008 9:05 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
So by game 34
our starting DH/RF will be Giambi/Dunn and Ben Zobrist/Willy Aybar with $8 mil in minimum salary sitting in Bayfront hospital, I do think that having another Eric Hinske (20 homer veteran) on our team wouldbe good for us in a part time role but these guys (minus Rocco) will want more than we should give them, Jim Edmond’s OPS’d over .900 with the cubs and slugged nearly .600 in 250 PA’s while playing the field above average, he could be seen as an option if we don’t trade for anyone or sign one of the FA DH/RF types as the guy who could do exactly what Hinske did in ’08 but with more polish on D.
IF only Harry Carey could be arounde for Kosuke.
by CubFanRaysaddict on Nov 14, 2008 9:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
At least they get on base
We could use a few guys who can slug 30-40 HR and walk 100 times a year. I do not see any other options offering that kind of production. Jim Edmonds would be a hell of a pickup though as I chronicled earlier in the year here .
Devil Rays World Series 2009
by Japhei on Nov 14, 2008 9:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
nice link
Seeing as I watched just about everyone of the Cub games I am extremely pro-Edmonds too, I was just suggesting him as part time in my response. I just think we need to go younger and cheaper in the OF than Dunn/Burrell/Griffey. We have a great young core and not too much besides the oft injured Desmond Jenning in the pipeline for an OF spot, getting a guy with 3-4 years of control left for our excess pitching would be the best short term and long term for this club. Also Giambi should get multiple years at over 5m per…
IF only Harry Carey could be arounde for Kosuke.
by CubFanRaysaddict on Nov 14, 2008 9:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jim Edmonds can't hit lefties at all anymore
by Brickhaus on Nov 14, 2008 7:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
??? what was the point to Hinske/Floyd
what would be the point to having a player who would have out OPS’d most of our starting lineup last year???…I only suggested him in a part time role the point would be to have a good veteran who can play three outfield positions with a plus bat and glove in a part time role who will demand less in terms of money and playing time. This isn’t a move done in a vacuum either where we can’t pick up a full time RH RF/DH who can solve our problems against Lefty pitchers, Jim Edmonds would be a great addition to a line up who lost Floyd/Hinske. Once again Part-time, will not be our answer vs. lefties, veteran,defense,offense,less money, FAT return. Also to your admission we have guys who can hit lefties already right…we why not get one who hits righties…
IF only Harry Carey could be arounde for Kosuke.
by CubFanRaysaddict on Nov 14, 2008 7:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
At least three?
Uhh, the Rays don’t have even close to the funding to sign three of those guys.
Burrell, Dunn, and Griffey should NOT be in any aspect of the field. DH only plz.
And, winning games puts fans in seats. Continuing to win games puts fans in seats.
""Bobby Crosby’s Release" - Sounds like a good title to Mr. Crosby’s first work in his next career now that we know he can’t play baseball." - Joey C.
by Blicks on Nov 14, 2008 9:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I say Sign 3 and they WILL
I say this ends up happening
Jason Giambi 5 mil
Ken Griffey 5 mil
Rocco Baldelli 3 mil
All end up signing
Devil Rays World Series 2009
by Japhei on Nov 14, 2008 9:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No way that happens
nor should it happen. We don’t need 3 DH’s totaling 13 million.
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 14, 2008 9:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
griffey sucks and he won't put fans in the seats.
by walkoffwalk on Nov 14, 2008 10:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
completely false that Griff puts fans in the seats...at least enough fans that it makes a difference.
If his family counts, then yes, he’ll put butts in the seats.
Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Nov 14, 2008 4:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This.
Griffey didn’t even put fans in his hometown’s seat. In 2000 they were coming off of a 96 win season. In 2001 they rose an average of 6k, that’s not all Griffey. How can I say that with some level of confidence? The next three years they won 85,66, and 78 and attendance declined, despite Griffey being around (although mostly hurt for the latter two years.) Griffey’s next healthy season was in 2005, the Great American Ballpark’s lowest average attendance record.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 15, 2008 10:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Writers would love it
We have already established that our attendance will be up at least next year due to season tickets. This way the writers could talk about how adding Griff was the sole reason our attendance will be up next year. They so like to look dumb.
Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found
a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up
that much.
~George Costanza~
by Sandy Kazmir on Nov 15, 2008 10:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Griffey and Giambi?
Am I drunk at 11:19 or am I reading that correctly? Griffey shouldn’t be a full time DH anywhere.
by Erik Hahmann on Nov 14, 2008 11:20 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Heh, I had similar thoughts
Hell no on Junior and Nomar but Giambi’s pop wouldn’t be the worst thing for DH
by joeybw on Nov 14, 2008 11:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You can get runs created out of this pretty easily...
(wOBA-lgwOBA)/1.15*PAs = runs above average. Add in 25 runs per 700 PAs to get to above-replacement-level.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Nov 14, 2008 12:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Dunn or Bradley please
I don’t know if I could force myself to root for Giambi :(
by mittens on Nov 14, 2008 1:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
but can we realistically afford any of these three anyway?
by mittens on Nov 14, 2008 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If all other holes were filled with F.A.T.,
then the Rays could feasibly get Bradley, or maybe even Giambi (I think the Rays have 10-15MM to spend—-correct me if I’m wrong).
You just have to cross fingers and toes that Percival announces retirement.
This.
by Blicks on Nov 14, 2008 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Closer to 5-10 mil than 10-15.
Also depends on moving Jackson before arb.
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 14, 2008 4:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My estimates were including Jackson getting traded.
So, close to 10MM if Jackson traded + Gomes non-tendered.
That takes Giambino out of the picture.
This.
by Blicks on Nov 14, 2008 5:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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