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The Free Agent DH Market

In a little under an hour, the MLB Free Agency period will begin. Amidst the millions and millions and years and years of contracts, (hopefully) one lucky fellow will be called upon to serve in the Rays army as the designated batsman. After taking a look at the players available in the market, I put together a list of "DHs" and their respective Bill James' projections. I also added wOBA, so RJ doesn't beat me over the head for not using properly sanctioned statistics.

Star-divide

Here's a table showing the projections sorted in descending order by wOBA:

 

Player Age Type G AB H 2B HR R RBI BB SO Avg OBP Slg OPS wOBA
Ramirez, Manny 36 A 150 552 166 34 34 95 113 88 125 .301 .404 .551 .955 .407
Dunn, Adam 29 A 159 562 138 30 42 100 103 122 183 .246 .386 .527 .913 .390
Bradley, Milton 30 B 123 442 127 27 20 72 68 70 108 .287 .391 .489 .879 .382
Burrell, Pat 32 157 537 136 29 32 78 98 104 145 .253 .377 .490 .867 .377
Giambi, Jason 37 136 446 109 20 29 70 86 89 113 .244 .388 .484 .873 .373
Abreu, Bobby 34 A 159 604 173 41 19 104 100 98 125 .286 .389 .455 .844 .372
Griffey, Ken 38 B 127 412 105 21 20 57 64 58 81 .255 .351 .451 .802 .350
Thomas, Frank 40 B 111 349 85 14 17 41 56 58 75 .244 .358 .430 .787 .346
Ibanez, Raul 36 A 159 623 173 36 22 84 100 60 111 .278 .343 .448 .791 .345
Rivera, Juan 30 99 317 89 20 13 40 52 21 41 .281 .327 .467 .794 .342
Floyd, Cliff 35 81 256 67 14 11 36 38 29 55 .262 .353 .445 .798 .342
Garciaparra, Nomar 35 76 179 51 10 6 25 28 13 16 .285 .344 .453 .796 .342
Baldelli, Rocco 27 103 312 87 18 12 47 44 20 64 .279 .330 .465 .795 .340
Kent, Jeff 40 A 140 519 143 31 17 64 78 48 74 .276 .344 .437 .781 .339
Gonzalez, Luis 41 B 125 313 81 20 9 40 42 42 41 .259 .354 .415 .769 .338
Casey, Sean 34 92 195 57 12 3 22 24 17 21 .292 .361 .400 .761 .334
Hinske, Eric 31 123 339 83 21 14 51 47 41 84 .245 .332 .437 .768 .333
Millar, Kevin 37 129 407 103 23 14 53 55 52 77 .253 .348 .413 .760 .333
Blake, Casey 35 B 110 336 87 20 12 45 44 31 77 .259 .336 .432 .768 .329
Anderson, Garret 36 B 140 525 148 30 16 62 83 28 79 .282 .318 .434 .753 .327
Norton, Greg 36 115 162 40 8 5 20 22 23 41 .247 .341 .389 .729 .327
Ward, Daryle 33 99 176 44 11 6 18 28 19 36 .250 .327 .415 .741 .325
Loretta, Mark 37 A 90 245 69 13 3 28 25 23 26 .282 .355 .371 .727 .322
Clark, Tony 36 92 152 35 7 7 17 26 19 49 .230 .320 .414 .734 .321
Aurilia, Rich 37 114 335 90 18 9 39 41 25 49 .269 .323 .409 .732 .320
Boone, Aaron 35 86 204 49 10 6 25 26 16 43 .240 .317 .377 .695 .297

Obviously, some of these guys will cost more than others, as well as be more desirable than others. So, let's take a look at a few that I think would be good signs (for whatever that's worth).

  • Adam Dunn/Milton Bradley: These two players are the best we could hope to afford. They are very similar in that they both have a perceived negative value due to "attitude" or "character" issues. Additionally, both can play the field but shouldn't. Dunn's horrid defense and Bradley's injury issues should force them both into DH roles. Maybe their predetermined roles, coupled with their "character flaws," could land them in the Bay area for a discount. Both are on-base machines that could really add some pop to the lineup. Bradley is preferred, though, because of his status as a Type B free agent.
  • Giambi/Thomas: These two old sluggers should never, ever see the field for any team of the living. They both man the easiest position in baseball like the undead at this point, and they have definitely seen better days. They are both power bats with great eyes. If they can give us 120 games you can expect an OBP approaching .380 with 30 bombs. I love Giambi for the fact that he is a type B.
  • Juan Rivera/Raul Ibanez: These two soon-to-be-former-AL-West-Rivals are both butchers in the field (notice a theme). Neither get on base like the aforementioned sluggers, but they do hit for power and SHOULD hit for decent averages. Ibanez will likely net a bigger contract when some foolish team thinks he can play RF (cough..Mets..cough). He's also a Type A, and older, so I am really warming up to Rivera.
  • ATTENTION BARGAIN SHOPPERS (Blake, Millar, Casey, Kent, Norton, etc.): These players all have flaws. That's why they'll likely be cheap. One of them, however, may be the F.A.T. that RJ so dearly craves. A few are type A, so I'd stay away from them, but there may be some real value here.
  • Everyone else that I did not notice or think worthy to mention may also come into play. I might have mentioned Hinske last year, but probably not. Pena the year before? Doubtful. So who knows what F.A.T. the RFO may bring in that will seem unexciting at first? Who knows, they may win a Silver Slugger a la Pena two years ago.

Let's discuss, and count the names as they get signed up!

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Rivera jumped off the page to me.

He’s still not a good defender and hacks and I’m not sold on him as a DH.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 13, 2008 11:07 PM EST reply actions  

Bradley plz

Dunn is gonna wind up making much more and he is another lefty while Bradley is a switch hitter who I would still trust more to randomly play the field than Dunn.

by joeybw on Nov 13, 2008 11:10 PM EST reply actions  

Not that I agree with it or understand why

but maybe they simply they did not go after Swisher? Friedman knows he needs a RF and/or DH as well as a lefty reliever and he not going to just ignore that.

by joeybw on Nov 14, 2008 12:06 AM EST up reply actions  

I'd go for someone who can also play the field

No Travis Hafner types on the Rays, I’m not a big fan of locking up the DH spot for one player.

by sofladude77 on Nov 13, 2008 11:58 PM EST reply actions  

I understand not wanting Travis Hafner types

I wouldn’t touch any of those DHs on a Hafner-type contract.

However, if they’re coming cheaper than their alternatives who can play the field, which they should, then I say try to land one.

This.

by Blicks on Nov 14, 2008 12:41 AM EST up reply actions  

NOMAAAAHHHHHH

On the cheap he is very desirable, not so much if he costs more than 5M.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found
a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up
that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Nov 14, 2008 12:39 AM EST reply actions  

Nothing is jumping out on this list.

Except, as others have stated, Milton Bradley.

I could see him getting a solid multiyear deal, say, 10MM per season, especially since he put up better numbers than Burrell, Abreu, Ibanez, Giambi, etc., AND is a Type B, which means he doesn’t cost a precious draft pick.

I still really, really like Bradley. And, if Bradley is slotted in at DH, then the Rays could go with whomever at RF (Gross, Nando, etc.) . I’d assume the Rays could take on 10MM for Bradley.

This.

by Blicks on Nov 14, 2008 1:10 AM EST reply actions  

the thing about Pena

was his youth… younger than almost all of these guys… any of these guys can be Cliff Floyd next year, and maybe better… but I want more of a younger guy who never quite reached his potential but is capable of something really good at a bargain price… which is why I can’t get Kearns off my mind.

of course, depending on the price, I would not at all mind having Bradley’s bat

by daveh33 on Nov 14, 2008 2:49 AM EST reply actions  

looking at it again

yeah Dunn and Rocco are the only ones under 30.

Carlos was 28 when we brought him on… not that its a huge deal, but I think it’s a plus to have someone entering/still in his prime, someone maybe a bit hungrier than the wily 35 yo vet….

by daveh33 on Nov 14, 2008 2:52 AM EST up reply actions  

He's a god in Scottsdale.

If he goes anywhere, I’d bet its back to the D’Backs. At least, I’ve heard that’s his preference.

by PlayOnWords on Nov 14, 2008 8:53 AM EST up reply actions  

Health is the hardest thing to predict

But do we want to pay for a full-time DH when we might instead be able to let Rocco play there (and not have to play the field) and even CC at times? A little rest (especially on turf) for our LF might help quite a bit. (of course, this assumes re-signing Rocco) These scenarios both allow some extra time for Perez to see the OF.

I do think we need help with DH, but am not sure we want to shell out for someone that’s going to be a full-time DH. Also, remember that adjusting to a full-time DH role isn’t easy for some players. Picking a guy that has played the field in the past is risky.

by TallMatt on Nov 14, 2008 8:40 AM EST reply actions  

Giambi plz

w/stache. What does the stache do for wOBA?

by PlayOnWords on Nov 14, 2008 8:53 AM EST reply actions  

why pay for the original three outcome stache

Maybe Russel Branyan can grow a stache and be our over .370oba threat lol

IF only Harry Carey could be arounde for Kosuke.

by CubFanRaysaddict on Nov 14, 2008 9:02 AM EST up reply actions  

these are tough times

players can’t even afford to chew/dip or even SMOKE (minus kazmir) and we’re talking about premium staches

IF only Harry Carey could be arounde for Kosuke.

by CubFanRaysaddict on Nov 14, 2008 9:26 AM EST up reply actions  

Like that one year where he had like15 hits and 13 homeruns?

something like that

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found
a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up
that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Nov 15, 2008 9:30 AM EST up reply actions  

STAAAAACCHHEE!!!!

I love Giambi. And his stache. He’d be interesting.

He fits better for the Rays than he would for the A’s, which is the team that so many people are pinpointing for Giambi, because on the A’s, it would force someone who should be DHing into the field (Giambi or Cust).

But then, money. If Bradley is expensive, Giambi will probably cost much more than that because he’s been healthier than Bradley has been. I could see him getting a 2 year deal north of 10MM/yr, and he’s not a Type A FA.

""Bobby Crosby’s Release" - Sounds like a good title to Mr. Crosby’s first work in his next career now that we know he can’t play baseball." - Joey C.

by Blicks on Nov 14, 2008 9:32 AM EST up reply actions  

I'd like

Bradley ideally, but the team probably won’t give him the money he wants. Giambi would be my second choice. He does two things, and pretty much only these two things, hit home runs and take walks. And that’s fine by me.

by Erik Hahmann on Nov 14, 2008 9:00 AM EST reply actions  

The Rays should sign at least 3 of these players below

I would take any of the following players

1. Adam Dunn DH/RF
2. Jason Giambi DH
3. Pat Burrell RF
4. Ken Griffey Jr. RF/DH put some fans in the seats!
5. Rocco Baldelli RF/DH/ 4th OF

At this point our best bet is to trade for a RH bat!

If I had my preference we would sign Griffey for 5 million and incentives to DH play RF , cut Gabe Gross, sign Baldelli to platoon at the DH/RF with Griffey and sign Giambi or Dunn as insurance.

I know we are loading up with LH power here but the RH power will come with Evan, BJ ,and Rocco playing full healthy seasons!

Devil Rays World Series 2009

by Japhei on Nov 14, 2008 9:05 AM EST reply actions  

So by game 34

our starting DH/RF will be Giambi/Dunn and Ben Zobrist/Willy Aybar with $8 mil in minimum salary sitting in Bayfront hospital, I do think that having another Eric Hinske (20 homer veteran) on our team wouldbe good for us in a part time role but these guys (minus Rocco) will want more than we should give them, Jim Edmond’s OPS’d over .900 with the cubs and slugged nearly .600 in 250 PA’s while playing the field above average, he could be seen as an option if we don’t trade for anyone or sign one of the FA DH/RF types as the guy who could do exactly what Hinske did in ’08 but with more polish on D.

IF only Harry Carey could be arounde for Kosuke.

by CubFanRaysaddict on Nov 14, 2008 9:20 AM EST up reply actions  

At least they get on base

We could use a few guys who can slug 30-40 HR and walk 100 times a year. I do not see any other options offering that kind of production. Jim Edmonds would be a hell of a pickup though as I chronicled earlier in the year here .

Devil Rays World Series 2009

by Japhei on Nov 14, 2008 9:32 AM EST up reply actions  

nice link

Seeing as I watched just about everyone of the Cub games I am extremely pro-Edmonds too, I was just suggesting him as part time in my response. I just think we need to go younger and cheaper in the OF than Dunn/Burrell/Griffey. We have a great young core and not too much besides the oft injured Desmond Jenning in the pipeline for an OF spot, getting a guy with 3-4 years of control left for our excess pitching would be the best short term and long term for this club. Also Giambi should get multiple years at over 5m per…

IF only Harry Carey could be arounde for Kosuke.

by CubFanRaysaddict on Nov 14, 2008 9:43 AM EST up reply actions  

Jim Edmonds can't hit lefties at all anymore

We already have guys who can hit lefties. What would be the point?

Splits

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 14, 2008 7:14 PM EST up reply actions  

??? what was the point to Hinske/Floyd

what would be the point to having a player who would have out OPS’d most of our starting lineup last year???…I only suggested him in a part time role the point would be to have a good veteran who can play three outfield positions with a plus bat and glove in a part time role who will demand less in terms of money and playing time. This isn’t a move done in a vacuum either where we can’t pick up a full time RH RF/DH who can solve our problems against Lefty pitchers, Jim Edmonds would be a great addition to a line up who lost Floyd/Hinske. Once again Part-time, will not be our answer vs. lefties, veteran,defense,offense,less money, FAT return. Also to your admission we have guys who can hit lefties already right…we why not get one who hits righties…

IF only Harry Carey could be arounde for Kosuke.

by CubFanRaysaddict on Nov 14, 2008 7:47 PM EST up reply actions  

At least three?

Uhh, the Rays don’t have even close to the funding to sign three of those guys.

Burrell, Dunn, and Griffey should NOT be in any aspect of the field. DH only plz.

And, winning games puts fans in seats. Continuing to win games puts fans in seats.

""Bobby Crosby’s Release" - Sounds like a good title to Mr. Crosby’s first work in his next career now that we know he can’t play baseball." - Joey C.

by Blicks on Nov 14, 2008 9:36 AM EST up reply actions  

I say Sign 3 and they WILL

I say this ends up happening

Jason Giambi 5 mil
Ken Griffey 5 mil
Rocco Baldelli 3 mil

All end up signing

Devil Rays World Series 2009

by Japhei on Nov 14, 2008 9:39 AM EST up reply actions  

No way that happens

nor should it happen. We don’t need 3 DH’s totaling 13 million.

by Tommy Rancel on Nov 14, 2008 9:55 AM EST up reply actions  

This.

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans
09: This one is for all the rings.

by SRQman on Nov 14, 2008 1:46 PM EST up reply actions  

completely false that Griff puts fans in the seats...at least enough fans that it makes a difference.

If his family counts, then yes, he’ll put butts in the seats.

Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Nov 14, 2008 4:03 PM EST up reply actions  

This.

Griffey didn’t even put fans in his hometown’s seat. In 2000 they were coming off of a 96 win season. In 2001 they rose an average of 6k, that’s not all Griffey. How can I say that with some level of confidence? The next three years they won 85,66, and 78 and attendance declined, despite Griffey being around (although mostly hurt for the latter two years.) Griffey’s next healthy season was in 2005, the Great American Ballpark’s lowest average attendance record.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 15, 2008 10:08 AM EST up reply actions  

Writers would love it

We have already established that our attendance will be up at least next year due to season tickets. This way the writers could talk about how adding Griff was the sole reason our attendance will be up next year. They so like to look dumb.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found
a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up
that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Nov 15, 2008 10:38 AM EST up reply actions  

Griffey and Giambi?

Am I drunk at 11:19 or am I reading that correctly? Griffey shouldn’t be a full time DH anywhere.

by Erik Hahmann on Nov 14, 2008 11:20 AM EST reply actions  

Heh, I had similar thoughts

Hell no on Junior and Nomar but Giambi’s pop wouldn’t be the worst thing for DH

by joeybw on Nov 14, 2008 11:36 AM EST up reply actions  

You can get runs created out of this pretty easily...

(wOBA-lgwOBA)/1.15*PAs = runs above average. Add in 25 runs per 700 PAs to get to above-replacement-level.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 14, 2008 12:00 PM EST reply actions  

Hmmm....

I’ll add that and edit it.

BTW, I meant to link to your more in-depth (similar article). It was late, I’m old, and so I forgot.

by rglass44 on Nov 14, 2008 12:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Dunn or Bradley please

I don’t know if I could force myself to root for Giambi :(

by mittens on Nov 14, 2008 1:09 PM EST reply actions  

If all other holes were filled with F.A.T.,

then the Rays could feasibly get Bradley, or maybe even Giambi (I think the Rays have 10-15MM to spend—-correct me if I’m wrong).

You just have to cross fingers and toes that Percival announces retirement.

This.

by Blicks on Nov 14, 2008 3:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Closer to 5-10 mil than 10-15.

Also depends on moving Jackson before arb.

by Tommy Rancel on Nov 14, 2008 4:50 PM EST up reply actions  

My estimates were including Jackson getting traded.

So, close to 10MM if Jackson traded + Gomes non-tendered.

That takes Giambino out of the picture.

This.

by Blicks on Nov 14, 2008 5:07 PM EST up reply actions  

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