2008 Player Reviews: James Shields

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 19, 2008 1:34 PM EST Comment 15 comments

Some poor sap is going to look at Shields ERA in 2007 compared to 2008 and think he magically became 0.30 runs better. The truth is, Shields really didn't make too much progress in 2008. His strikeout rate dropped by one per nine (and his swinging strike percent dropped from10.6% to 9.6%) and his walks increased slightly. Shields did curb the gopherball issues slightly, which almost certainly accounts for his FIP change; from 3.86 down to 3.82. Otherwise, there's a ton of symmetry between the two seasons.

Stat	2007	2008
BABIP	0.292	0.292
LD%	16.3	16.2
GB%	43.4	46.3
LOB%	71.8	73.3
IP	215	215
TBF	874	877
tRA	3.68	3.84
tRA*	3.92	4.09

tRA's blip is to be expected, since Shields had a large percentage of balls put into play. tRA* regressed Shields unintentional walk rate and line drive percentage. So the good news is that we know exactly what we're getting from Shields, and the better news is that he's pretty damn good.

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The Mike Mussina of this generation

Never will be a star, but be a very good pitcher for a long time.

by Tommy Rancel on Nov 19, 2008 1:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

did you just say Sheildsy is headed to the HOF

aaawwwww snap.

Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Nov 19, 2008 1:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I before E except after C

FAIL

Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Nov 19, 2008 1:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and weird words, like "weird"

by walkoffwalk on Nov 19, 2008 2:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If he can pull a Ervin Santana

and work on those road woes of his, watch out.

by joeybw on Nov 19, 2008 2:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

BABIP question

If Shields gets 45% groundballs and the defense (atleast infield defense) behind him improved from 07 to 08 why did his BABIP stay the same?

I know some folks love the potential in some players…but this guy is consistently good and what more can you ask from a player.

by K-Rock on Nov 19, 2008 4:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

luck...

or bad luck.

by rglass44 on Nov 19, 2008 6:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Or the defense didn't get any better?

Are there defensive metrics out there you like that show our defense, and in particular our infield defense, did infact get better in 2008.

by K-Rock on Nov 19, 2008 6:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

one sec

by rglass44 on Nov 19, 2008 6:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not trying to suggest the defense didn't improve...

my eyes tell me it did but I don’t have any metrics to back that up. And I’ve seen discussion in the past about which defensive metrics are more useful then others.

by K-Rock on Nov 19, 2008 6:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The defense got better.

It’s a luck issue. Last year his groundballs found the fielders more, or his liners were caught more. This year the grounders got through compared to other pitchers, or the liners.

Look at the BABIP heavy post from a few days ago, Shields is the outlier of pitcher BABIP from last year to this year.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 19, 2008 8:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Averaged Zone Rating Runs from STATS and BIS

link

2007: -49
2008: +14

This is all the players that played in the IF’s defensive runs added up (or subtracted in the case of 2007).

by rglass44 on Nov 19, 2008 6:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

reply fail

by rglass44 on Nov 19, 2008 6:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So here is where I get lost

The infield improved 63 runs. but is there any way to relate that back to Shields’ BABIP to say how unlucky his 2008 BABIP was (assuming 2007 as a base year….maybe a bad assumption).

.292 seems pretty average…maybe as you suggested above he really got luck last year as opposed to unlucky this year.

by K-Rock on Nov 19, 2008 6:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs