Who do we match up well with?

by SC raysfan on Nov 21, 2008 10:44 AM EST Comment 45 comments

It is always interesting to break-down the trading process and to try to figure out different teams approaches etc. One trend that I see wtih us and maybe this is also a league wide approach is the trade to fix multiple needs instead of just one at a time. The multiple need approach is more complicated perhaps but if you match up well with another team less can go wrong. ie. if you are making a series of moves with multiple teams and half way through a team breaks-off on a key player you needed to make further moves then you may be stuck without anywhere else to go.

Last year we made a multiple need trade with the Twins that worked out really well and we have done this with the Dodgers in the past as well. Some reasons for this approach may be the fact that many trades involve multiple players anyway, many trades are expanded because one team or the other needs to get a fair balance which seldom happens when dealing just one player and it is very hard to find in the recent market the most complicated 3 and 4 team deals. Many teams are holding out for a coveted free agent or waiting to see where others go which complicates multiple team deals. With all of that being said who do we match up best with this year? Might we seek one main team to fit our multiple needs wtih us meeting theirs' as well? Here are my thoughts:

We probaly match up best with the Brewers, Cards, Indians, Rangers and Royals. All of these teams need pitching and they in turn have RF/DH types.

I would say that we can help a team get a starter (E. Jackson or equivalent) get a middle infielder (Brignac) and a starter/reliever (Talbot or equal). We need a RF (prefer everyday type) a RH bat (can be a DH only) and a LH reliever or good late inning reliever. Let's look at each team;

Brewers: C. Hart could be the main part of a deal and we have dealt with them before

Cards: Ankiel or Ludwick could be the main part

Indians: a Gutierrez, Garko, R. Perez for Jackson, Talbot and Niemann might work

Rangers: Murphy and Byrd could be a good place to start

Royals: Right now I think we match up best with them, why not a Teahen, Butler and Mahon for Jackson, Brignac and Talbot deal

What do you think?

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Ok

I’m not getting into much detail here, well none really, but…no on all of those.

by Erik Hahmann on Nov 21, 2008 11:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

This

Indie.

by Taylor H on Nov 21, 2008 10:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd be ok with getting Butler if he's available...

but RJ posted that he may not be. I’m starting to believe Teahen was a bit unlucky in ‘08 and could be a nice fit in RF with good d. I don’t think we need both nor do I think we need to include Brignac in a deal for either.

by Tommy Rancel on Nov 21, 2008 11:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Indians: a Gutierrez, Garko, R. Perez for Jackson, Talbot and Niemann might work

I like Gutierrez a lot. He’s a great fielder who’s proven he can hit in the bigs. He took a step back at the plate last year, but he still was very valuable because of his glove. I think a lot of his decline at the plate last year was due to luck (his BABIP dropped by a fair margin despite a decent increase in LD%). I liek Perez a lot as well. His TRA* has decreased every year in the bigs so far and was 3.15 last year. He’s still still not arb.-eligible I believe, so he’s cheap. I have no interest whatsoever in Garko. His pop hasn’t come around, and at 27 I doubt it will.

by rglass44 on Nov 21, 2008 11:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think the Rays and Rangers match up well

Texas could definitely use a decent young starter to add to their rotation as they introduce a heap of young pitchers and they have a whole bunch of solid positional prospects.

Max Ramirez seems like a really perfect target. He just turned 24, he is major league ready, and he posted a .347/.439/.628 (1.067 OPS) line in the minors last year and he can play C/1B/DH. He would be a great right-handed option at DH and he would be under team control for 6 years. He could also help spell Pena and Navarro from time to time. Bill James projects him to post a .938 OPS in the majors next season. The Rangers already have a ton of depth at C (Saltalamacchia, Teagarden, Ramirez, and Laird) and could spare Ramirez for a pitcher.

Marlon Byrd also seems like a perfect target to go along with Ramirez. He had an .842 OPS last season, which is higher than the likes of Alex Rios, Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells, etc. He is relatively cheap and also right handed. He is also generally considered a good defender and can play all three outfield positions. He is under team control for one more season, though.

Byrd and Ramirez for Sonnanstine would make a lot of sense. The Rangers get a good #2/3 type starter under control for 4 years and the Rays get two plus offensive players, one of whom is under team control for 6 seasons. It seems to fill needs for both teams.

by Stephen Rushin on Nov 21, 2008 1:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Edwin for Byrd please.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 21, 2008 1:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The Rangers/Rays matchup, but I would

swap Edwin Jackson for Nelson Cruz and call it a day.

by Tommy Rancel on Nov 21, 2008 2:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

All day.

So obvious it won’t happen. Or at least that’s what I’d say if I was prone to cliches.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 21, 2008 8:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Can Edwin beat out the back end of Texas rotation

and before you all say yes, lets not forget that the park and fielding for Texas will add at least a run to his ERA and the Rays defense saved the team an average of about a .5 a run…

I don’t see Texas doing an Edwin deal. Doubtful Max Ramirez gets dealt, with Blalock only on a 1 year deal at DH and him being the likely replacement.

Sonnanstine might be an interesting deal, but once again does Texas deal 2 bats for 1 SP when they are really gunning for 2010?

The weird thing is that Texas needs Bullpen help and 3rb help a lot more than they need SP at this point. They broke in a ton of young SP last year, and stand a great chance of seeing how those guys play out.

Texas will deal an OF and at least 1 C this off season, with either #1 starter potential SP, bullpen help or prospects a ways off the 40.

I am not for sure that Texas matches up as well as some other teams….

3 Team Deal!!!

by laxtonto on Nov 21, 2008 6:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Tommy has a huge man crush on Cruz

but it’s understandable

by Erik Hahmann on Nov 21, 2008 3:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Reply fail.

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans
09: This one is for all the rings.

by SRQman on Nov 21, 2008 4:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cruz is a badass.

2-21-08 $338 on the Rays to win the Pennant at 95:1 = $32,448. -bet placed by the new Matt Garza Fan Club Preisdent.

by Kenny845 on Nov 21, 2008 6:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So how about this

Teagarden C
Smoak 1B
Saltamachhia DH

That leaves Max Ramirez without a job.

Also…..Kinsler(soon anyway) and Young are locked up for a while, maybe they move Andrus to 3B?

What you guys think it would take for Chris Davis and Max Ramirez?

Or just Davis? That’s a 30+ homer guy right there, maybe by next season.

by joeybw on Nov 21, 2008 7:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

From what Ive heard

Davis is untouchable. I dont think the word “untouchable” was used, but pretty much they have no reason to trade him and no one waiting in the wings, unless you Smoak, who is still a couple years away, or Blalock, who would below average as a first baseman. Even then, Smoak and Davis could be a heck of a DH and 1B in the near future for the Rangers.

by BossmanJunior333 on Nov 21, 2008 7:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My idea of how that would work for Rangers and Rays long term

Obviously, this is banking on everyone making it to the majors

Rangers

C Taylor Teagarden
1B Justin Smoak
2B Ian Kinsler
SS Michael Young
3B Elvis Andrus
LF David Murphy
CF Engel Beltre
RF Josh Hamilton
DH Jarrod Saltamacchia

Rays

C Dioner Navarro
1B Chris Davis (My thinking here is that this is long term and Pena wont be here forever)
2B Reid Brignac
SS Tim Beckham
3B Evan Longoria
LF Carl Crawford (do we give him another long term deal?)
CF B.J Upton
RF Desmon Jennings
DH John Jaso

Ok, so that is 3-4 years and luck away from happening but just amuse me, doesn’t that seem like a good plan for both teams?

And the best part is the Rangers need pitching bad and the Rays have incredible pitching depth.

by joeybw on Nov 21, 2008 7:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

further

I wouldnt want to trade for a catcher, only because it would deflate his value. We would be wanting to use him as a DH, and the Rangers would want to get “catcher” value for him. Essentially, that would two different levels of value. A catcher who hits 20+ HR is worth much more than a DH who hits 20+ HR. We likely wouldnt be willing to overpay for a DH.

by BossmanJunior333 on Nov 21, 2008 7:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I am not sure

Rangers are going to try and trade 2 of their catchers and everyone pretty much knows Max Ramirez doesn’t have the defense for C. He will be a 1B or DH. Teagarden is definatley their catcher.

Also, they need pitching like Crisp needs some testicles.I think we can get a good deal for Ramirez. Salty would cost a lot, Teagarden would cost even more and Laird just doesn’t impress me.

I would much prefer Davis if we can only get 1 but a team that is loaded at 1B/C and has no pitching….how much would it really take?

by joeybw on Nov 21, 2008 7:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

a lot

for Davis. Obviously there are few negatives such as the strike outs (on pace for over 160 last year), not very good with the glove, and not much speed. He reminds me of the AL white version of Ryan Howard. Even with his flaws, he is a serious power threat and should hit 30+ HR every year. I have to imagine they would want a Davis/Hellickson type pitcher for Chris Davis, but maybe Jackson/Niemann and a B level prospect would be enough.

by BossmanJunior333 on Nov 21, 2008 8:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Davis

No way the Rangers would deal Davis without getting an established, top of the rotation caliber pitcher.

The Rangers have several pitching prospects as good or better than Hellickson or Niemann. (Neftali Felix, Derek Holland, Michel Main). They have a great farm system with lots of talented starters. If they deal a semi-established, rising star of a hitter, they would want to add someone more established.

Bill James projects Davis to hit 40 HR and hit over .300 next year with an OPS of .951. He is worth more like Kazmir than a Jackson+ package.

by Stephen Rushin on Nov 21, 2008 8:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Feliz, not Felix.

by Stephen Rushin on Nov 21, 2008 8:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If we can get him for Jackson, Niemann and some B level spect then sign me up

If Davis or Aybar can play RF, then our offense is set. Rotation is set. Would still need to work on our pen.

2B Akinori Iwamura
LF Carl Crawford
CF B.J Upton
3B Evan Longoria
1B Carlos Pena
DH Chris Davis
RF Willy Aybar
C Dioner Navarro
SS Jason Bartlett

Kaz – Shields – Garza – Price – Sonny

Would just need a loogy and 1 more good bullpen arm.

I am in love.

by joeybw on Nov 21, 2008 8:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

lolz

They’d want Price. Or a Davis/Hellickson level pitcher and another couple decent prospects.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 21, 2008 9:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

One of Salty or Teagarden gets moved

Laird gets moved, Daivs may end up in RF after Smoak gets to Texas..

Texas would look more like this in 2010-2011

DH Ramierez
1B Smoak
2B Kinsler/Young
SS Andrus
3B Young/Kinsler
RF Davis
CF Borbon/Beltre is at best due in 2010 or 2011
LF Hamilton

As far as pitching trades with Texas, I am not sure they would be willing to make any deal without the absolute cream of the crop of the Young SP. Texas may have more high end pitcihng prospects in the minors now than the Rays, especially with Price going into the rotation to start the season.

Why would Texas make any deal for thier young players, they aren’t trying to win in 09, their window starts in 2010.

by laxtonto on Nov 21, 2008 8:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think the Rangers view Andrus as their long-term short stop. There is a lot of debate over when, not if, Michael Young will move to 3B. Despite his gold glove award, he is not a very good defensive short stop, but has the arm to be a decent 3B.

I think if the Rangers traded Davis, they would have to get a real, #1 starter in return. Davis was listed on beyond the box score as the young hitter with the greatest chance to hit 70+ home runs in a season. He is really, really good. He is also viewed as a decent defensive first baseman. (Although not too good at 3B, where he played a bit last year) Also, Texas might need pitching, but they have the deepest farm system in baseball and their biggest strength on the farm is pitching. If they deal Davis, they would want a relatively established, ace caliber starter, not a package involving Sonnanstine/Jackson.

Oh and Ramirez can be an adequate catcher, but he is not viewed as a strong defensive player. He is probably gonna be moved to 1B/DH in the future. He has been compared to Edgar Martinez, with a little more defensive prowess. Ramirez, unlike Davis, could probably be acquired for Sonnanstine. I don’t, on the other hand, think that the Rangers would want Jackson. Without the Rays defense, he would not be any better than Scott Feldman, Matt Harrison, Eric Hurley, or Brandon McCarthy. Sonnanstine would present an upgrade. He is what the Rangers hope Feldman/Harrison/Hurley/McCarthy would develop into.

and FYI: Here are the projections by Bill James for 2009 for Davis, Ramirez, and Byrd:

Davis- .302 BA, .352 OBP, .599 SLG, .951 OPS (40 HR, 118 RBI)
Ramirez- .308 BA, .390 OBP, .548 SLG, .938 OPS
Byrd- .283 BA, .351 OBP, .425 SLG, .776 OPS

by Stephen Rushin on Nov 21, 2008 8:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

what about

Niemann for Ramirez? Niemann is better than Jackson and has more upside than Sonnanstine. Might not project as an ace anymore, but could be a solid #2 or #3 someday. Around the same major league experience as Ramirez as well. It would be great if we would expand it to be a Cruz and Ramirez trade.

by BossmanJunior333 on Nov 21, 2008 8:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I would do that also

My comments make it seem like I don’t like Niemann but I do. However guys like Ramirez, Cruz, and Davis supply much needed power for us. Also, Cruz and maybe Davis can play RF, Ramirez can play DH so I would give Niemann and more for 2 of those guys

by joeybw on Nov 21, 2008 8:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That seems closer

FWIW, Ramirez is perceived as having significantly more value than Niemann, but Niemann + someone else might get the job done.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 21, 2008 9:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

As for Davis

I think his value is too high right now. I would probably rate it very close to Longoria (not considering Longoria’s amazing longterm contract) based on talent, age and projectability. To me, what makes Friedman so great is his ability to see something in players that everyone seems to overlook. Well, there really isnt much mystery to Davis right now. He is what he is. However, I would love to see what kind of deal he could get for Ramirez and Byrd/Cruz.

by BossmanJunior333 on Nov 21, 2008 8:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The Royals

are trying to shop Jose Guillen. Right handed bat with some pop. Would you welcome a return to the Rays for Guillen?

by jacksontsmith on Nov 21, 2008 9:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Actually, there's 25 of them.

Indie.

by Taylor H on Nov 22, 2008 12:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

but

I’ll take Billy Butler.

by BossmanJunior333 on Nov 21, 2008 10:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

guillen is a piece of shit

everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds

by RaysOfHope on Nov 21, 2008 11:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's disrespectful to shit.

Indie.

by Taylor H on Nov 22, 2008 12:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

true thank you for correcting me, sorry shit!

everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds

by RaysOfHope on Nov 23, 2008 12:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Braves?

Another possibility I haven’t seen mentioned is the Braves. They have a good outfield right now and a trifecta of excellent outfield prospects ready to burst onto the scene. Maybe we can snatch one of them for a small price. How about Sonny/Jackson for Francoeur?

by rayHead on Nov 22, 2008 10:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs