Feeling Good About Crawford

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 23, 2008 11:40 AM EST Comment 25 comments

Despite Carl posting his worst wOBA since 2003, some things from 2008 deserve proper attention. The quick lists:

Pros:

Still an awesome defender (nearly a win)

Improved walk and strikeout rates, by extension a career high in BB/K rate (0.50)

Unlucky BABIP (a pro in the sense that it will improve next year)

Cons:

Showed least amount of power since 2003 (Iso)

Over 30% O-Swing%.

Reduced steals: in 2007 Crawford attempted a steal in 27% of his times on base, that number went down to 20% last season. That's not a "getting on base" thing either. Although perhaps a change in running philosophy took place.

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He wasn't healthy...

it would make a ton of sense if this turned out to be an anomaly in a fantastic career.

2-21-08 $338 on the Rays to win the Pennant at 95:1 = $32,448. -bet placed by the new Matt Garza Fan Club Preisdent.

by Kenny845 on Nov 23, 2008 12:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Unfortunately

It would also make sense if all the years of playing on astroturf has taken a toll on his knees and he’s never quite the same player again….

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 23, 2008 4:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My theory...

Remember those articles in Spring Training about how he was in the best shape of his life? I think he just overworked himself in the off-season and his body couldn’t be at full strength for the daily grind of the season.

www.raysprospects.com
Trade for Billy Butler!

by Imperialism32 on Nov 23, 2008 5:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe it's just me

but it seemed he had longer ABs in the playoffs than he usually does. I’m pretty sure he didn’t walk much in the post-season and I could be making this up, but still.

www.raysprospects.com
Trade for Billy Butler!

by Imperialism32 on Nov 23, 2008 12:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

it always seems there is somethng that is holding back CC, feels like we keep waiting for him to have a 20 HR, 100 RBI, 50 SB season

by therayspartyleader on Nov 23, 2008 3:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Or to ever have an OBP worth a damn.

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Nov 23, 2008 4:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that is such an important part of this decision.

he won’t get on at anywhere near a .400 clip

2-21-08 $338 on the Rays to win the Pennant at 95:1 = $32,448. -bet placed by the new Matt Garza Fan Club Preisdent.

by Kenny845 on Nov 23, 2008 6:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

.360 would be nice.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 23, 2008 6:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

.300/.360/.450 seem reasonable if his BABIP and ISO regress and he maintains his walk-rate?

I do wonder if he over-did it in the off-season. Take some time off and get rested up CC.

Would be nice to seem him finally put together an .825-.850 OPS season.

by twenty5psi on Nov 23, 2008 9:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I was referring to minor injuries

It seems that I hear a few times every year that Carl is complaining about his legs on field turf, or his sore wrist, then he gets unlucky with that hand injury after a few games where it seemed like he was about to burst open to close to years before.

by therayspartyleader on Nov 24, 2008 10:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Every single turned into an out is .8 of a run.

So a little more than one play.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 24, 2008 8:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

is a single that is turned into an out an "OOZ" ?

by walkoffwalk on Nov 25, 2008 12:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Single turned into an out.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 25, 2008 1:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Didn't he not run as much because his legs were bothering him?

by Erik Hahmann on Nov 24, 2008 9:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

A mere 27 years of age too

Sometimes I think we all forget how young Crawford is too. He’s been in the bigs since 2002, yet he’s only 27. It seems to me we might be seeing Crawford just hitting his prime.

His post season work was great for a guy who didn’t play for almost 6 weeks prior.

And one note on stolen bases…what about situations? In the second half of 2007 it didn’t matter when he stole. Maybe he was more selective this year given we were fighting for first place for the whole year. Not many inconsequential moments to risk an out with Upton and Pena coming up.

by JWallace on Nov 24, 2008 10:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nah, I think it was his knees

He had been complaining all year about how his knees were bothering him from the new turf.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 24, 2008 1:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Still not worth $8.25mm on this club.

Trading him could free up the money needed for a power bat, and give us the prospects needed to sustain long term success in a small market.

by LeftRight on Nov 24, 2008 11:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I disagree

If Crawford’s bat regresses to what it had been in the past, his combined offensive and defensive value is worth about the same as the combined offensive and defensive value of most of the LF sluggers available on the market.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 24, 2008 1:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I will take perez and Bradley

over Crawford and ________ that we get for $800k.

by LeftRight on Nov 24, 2008 2:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

plus a slew of prospects

by LeftRight on Nov 24, 2008 2:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Point taken if it fills a hole

But (a) we need to sign the DH/RF first, or else it’s just creating a hole with no guarantee that we can fill it and (b) I’d much rather get someone who can help out on the current roster than a slew of prospects, especially when there aren’t a whole lot of spots where there will be openings in the foreseeable future. If we could get a top level 2B prospect it would be great, but there aren’t many good middle infield prospects in baseball generally at the moment, and we already have 2 of the best 5 or 6 MIF prospects in baseball. Plus, frankly, trading Crawford now would be trading very low.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 24, 2008 3:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

2 of the 5/6 top IF prospects

Funny to think of it that way because we seem to not have any depth at those positions yet that is true. Its still hard paying Crawford $8.25 and $10 mil. in ’10 unless our season ticket sales really take off he is a huge percentage of our payroll…

IF only Harry Carey could be arounde for Kosuke.

by CubFanRaysaddict on Nov 25, 2008 10:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs