Church for Jackson?

by Tommy Rancel on Nov 24, 2008 10:40 AM EST Comment 88 comments

One potentially intriguing trade possibility is the Rays' Edwin Jackson, the 25-year-old righthander with the big fastball and plenty of potential. Lack of command kept him from living up to early raves, but he showed signs of blossoming in 2008, going 14-11 with a 4.42 ERA. With David Price on the horizon, the Rays have a surplus of starting pitching.

One Rays person said Tampa has interest in Aaron Heilman - "as a reliever, not a starter" - but said the Rays value Jackson's potential as worth more than that.

"It would have to be more," the person said. "I know that some of our guys think Jackson started to turn the corner this year, and they think he could still be something special."

It's not pitching the Rays need anyway. They're looking for a right fielder, so if the Mets really want Jackson, and perhaps a prospect too, they could probably do it by offering Ryan Church, whose lefthanded bat they could replace with free agent Raul Ibañez.

Ryan Church? Not impressed. Why trade Jackson for a older, more expensive version of Gabe Gross?

Bill James 2009 projections

Church

.275/.348/.457 16 HR, 62 RBI, wOBA.352

Gross

.262/.355/.437 11 HR, 48 RBI, wOBA .350

Again, Gross is cheaper and younger and his career O-swing is about 10% lower. I'll pass.

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They're suggesting Church is worth Edwin AND a prospect!

They’re looking for a right fielder, so if the Mets really want Jackson, and perhaps a prospect too, they could probably do it by offering Ryan Church

Wow.

by floridaroar on Nov 24, 2008 11:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Edwin and a Prospect for a platoon OF?

No thanks.

Give me Marlon Byrd for Edwin please.

by twenty5psi on Nov 24, 2008 11:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nah....I want Nelson Cruz from the Rangers

Put him in RF and we have offense and defense from one player

by Jason Collette on Nov 24, 2008 11:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Plus you have years of team control...Win/Win

by Tommy Rancel on Nov 24, 2008 12:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd give Edwin and a prospect for Cruz.

by floridaroar on Nov 24, 2008 12:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That would be too much

He’s a 26 year old that hasn’t seen much time at all in the majors. He’s no longer a prospect, but he is a pretty good player. The Rangers have a ton of options in the OF and no pitching. We should be able to get one of them for Jackson straight up.

by rglass44 on Nov 24, 2008 12:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

* he's 28, I can't type

by rglass44 on Nov 24, 2008 12:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

haha

Just what the Rays need another light hitting left handed hitter??? So why not give them a valuable SP and a prospect for the Mets leftovers. With Church’s splits vs. lefties (81 OPS+, & 93ks in about 350PA’s vs LHP career) he can stay in NY.

IF only Harry Carey could be arounde for Kosuke.

by CubFanRaysaddict on Nov 24, 2008 11:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

light hitting left handed hitter

Last year was the first year in his career he didn’t slug higher than everyone but Longo and Pena.
His wOBA+/SLG by year:
2005: 108/.466
2006: 112/.526
2007: 107/.464
2008: 105/.439

He also projects to be about average in RF.

by rglass44 on Nov 24, 2008 12:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not calling him Jason Bartlett, more like average OF'er

I’m not arguing he wouldn’t be a minor upgrade from what we have now (Gross) just that we should hope for more in a trade that involves Ejax and a prospect, also 2006 looks like the obvious outlier not the norm and are for less than 200 ab’s. He would give us about 20points less OPS wise than should be expected from an average starting RFer as well and with our team already getting below average offensive production from left we cannot handle afford that in right.

IF only Harry Carey could be arounde for Kosuke.

by CubFanRaysaddict on Nov 24, 2008 1:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Speaking of outliers

I would think you would have noticed the above-average production from LF consistently up to last year.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found
a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up
that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Nov 24, 2008 2:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

which numbers are you using for average LF offensive production.

And because I did use the word outlier, I would obviously be looking to not use them in any of my own commentary, yes I see a career .765 ops as below avg in LF and the around 800 ops the last 4 years (-outliers) to still be below average production for a starting LFer.

IF only Harry Carey could be arounde for Kosuke.

by CubFanRaysaddict on Nov 24, 2008 2:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I was using the numbers given for the average 'starting' LF'er, not LF in general so you know

IF only Harry Carey could be arounde for Kosuke.

by CubFanRaysaddict on Nov 24, 2008 2:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

LF average OPS was .766

This is the first year he’s been under that mark since he was 21. I’d definitely consider his bat above-average at almost any position pretty much every year.

by rglass44 on Nov 24, 2008 3:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

outlier?

1 : a person whose residence and place of business are at a distance
2 : something (as a geological feature) that is situated away from or classed differently from a main or related body
3 : a statistical observation that is markedly different in value from the others of the sample

2003: .671
2004: .781
2005: .800
2006: .830
2007: .817
2008: .719

So, according to the definition of “outlier” from the Merriam-Webster Dictionary online (link), I would say that the seasons that stray from .800 are the outlier.

by rglass44 on Nov 24, 2008 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

dont be a d-bag

I was saying he has around an .800 OPS the last four years minus the outlier (this year, not that the majority of his AB’s from 05-07 are outliers) I was just letting you know in my reasoning 2008 was not really a factor. And its obvious to see why we have different definitions of Avg LF production like I said I used average starting LF production numbers while you used the total numbers posted from whoever that day is playing the position officially when they take their at-bat (I presume, if not let me know what you’re using). And please do not use a dictionary definition to talk down to me, because you misread my previous statement, or you think you need to put a minus/dash in front of any words inside of parenthesis.

IF only Harry Carey could be arounde for Kosuke.

by CubFanRaysaddict on Nov 24, 2008 3:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow who's the doucher now?

OPS is one stat. Just about every metric you come across is going to have Craw as above-average once you take into account his true value. Everybody that is ready to sell low on him is going to get laughed at in three years.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found
a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up
that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Nov 24, 2008 3:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

when did i say in this thread trade crawford

I agree there are different stats and they say different things which is why twice I asked you for the stats you were using…

IF only Harry Carey could be arounde for Kosuke.

by CubFanRaysaddict on Nov 24, 2008 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Learn how to form a sentence and your comments won't be misread.

by rglass44 on Nov 24, 2008 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

learn how to read

I put a minus sign in front of a word I said I was ignoring in my analysis.

IF only Harry Carey could be arounde for Kosuke.

by CubFanRaysaddict on Nov 24, 2008 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

outliers imples more than one. when used refferring to the last 4 years, it seems to imply you meant they were the outliers.

by rglass44 on Nov 24, 2008 3:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

okay

that’s fine I apologize for being a d-bag, I was just using it in a generality saying not counting the outliers (which in this case was only one year), also the stats I used were off ESPN for qualified LFers, also an indians site had some numbers on this , in a very easy to read format (less info though)
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/70333-2009-cleveland-indians-a-modest-proposal

IF only Harry Carey could be arounde for Kosuke.

by CubFanRaysaddict on Nov 24, 2008 3:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's cool

These are players that qualified for the batting title at that position. It is only 17 players in all of baseball. It is also skewed because the guys that qualify have to be good (or else they won’t play enough) and reasonably healthy. Crawford didn’t qualify to make this breakdown.

If you look at the list, and pencil in CC as an .800 OPS guy, he’d finish 14th in OPS. That would be below average for the 17 top LF in baseball (in just OPS), but he’d also be above average for the 30 LF positions in baseball. He’s also the best defensive LF in baseball.

I do think he’s slightly overrated by the fans and media, but he’s a very productive player who has made quite a niche for himself in the community. Trading him now, while his value seems to be at an all-time low, would seem like the wrong move.

by rglass44 on Nov 24, 2008 4:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

agree, don't trade him now

Even if it is highly unlikely we will be able to re-sign him, right now is def. not the time for that, same for Kaz. And I was aware what the stats I was using were (by saying starter/qualified), And I hope and expect he will put up better than those marcel projections that look like Delmon Young, as long as his OBP gets back around 350 he’s going to give our team a great boost from last year.

IF only Harry Carey could be arounde for Kosuke.

by CubFanRaysaddict on Nov 24, 2008 4:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If you meant average starting LF

Who are these and offer some kind of backing. I provided the split for everone who started as a LF. This clearly shows that he has been an above-average LF at the plate.

by rglass44 on Nov 24, 2008 3:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Every trade senario I've seen...

undervalues EJax. I know I am more optomistic about his future than most, but we should be able to get a very return for a guy with his potential.

by save_the_trop on Nov 24, 2008 11:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Just waiting for the big FA SP's to sign

Once Sabathia and CO. come off the board, teams will be scrambling for SP.

by Tommy Rancel on Nov 24, 2008 11:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

this.

by walkoffwalk on Nov 24, 2008 12:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I like Ryan Church

But I agree that he’s redundant of Gabe Gross.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 24, 2008 12:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I don't know what you guys expect to get for a pitcher that doesn't K anyone and walks the ballpark

by walkoffwalk on Nov 24, 2008 1:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that being said, i don't know why we'd have any interest in Ryan Church...he is just an older Gabe Gross..

by walkoffwalk on Nov 24, 2008 1:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Church > Gross

Church .272/.347/.457 OPS VS. Righties .730 OPS VS Lefties .724 OPS+ 111
Gross .242/.340/.412 OPS Vs. Righties .786 OPS Vs. Lefties .519 OPS + 94

Church has had 76% of his career at bats with the platoon advantage and Gross has had 87% of his career at bats with the platoon advantage. Church is also only 1 year older and both are arbitration elgible.

I certainly hope the Rays can get more than Church for EJax but I would not be terribly disappointed with a trade of Ejax for Church and a prospect. I would not mind seeing a platoon of Church and Rocco in Right.

by MetsRaysFan on Dec 1, 2008 7:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Is it that ridiculous?

Ryan Church is a pretty good ballplayer, and if they throw in someone like a Mike Carp, it makes it a clear win for the Rays. The problem is that the Rays don’t need Ryan Church.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 24, 2008 1:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 24, 2008 1:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I am going back to Pence

Jackson and what for Pence? Possible?

by joeybw on Nov 24, 2008 1:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Pence is untouchable

Or pretty damn close to it.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 24, 2008 1:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ed Wade is their GM.

I know that's a pisser, baby.

by Blicks on Nov 24, 2008 1:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think EJax is undervalued in a EJax for Church straight up swap

its just that the Rays don’t need Church.

I know that's a pisser, baby.

by Blicks on Nov 24, 2008 1:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

This.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 24, 2008 1:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Stop aping my thoughts.

:-P

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 24, 2008 1:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This is awesome.

“It would have to be more,” the person said. “I know that some of our guys think Jackson started to turn the corner this year, and they think he could still be something special.”

The Rays are selling him better than i would’ve hoped.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 24, 2008 1:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yay smoke and mirrors selling.

Can’t wait for someone to bite the hook.

I know that's a pisser, baby.

by Blicks on Nov 24, 2008 1:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I know. That shall be a glorious day.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 24, 2008 1:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

C'mon, the guy had 14 wins and held his own in the toughest division in basbeball. Of course EJax makes you want to choke him sometimes, but trading him for Ryan Church seems a bit of a stretch. Not only because we dont need Church, but because he sux mos

…

by TheUltimateBucFan on Nov 24, 2008 1:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Bring back Baldelli before you trade for Church

by TheUltimateBucFan on Nov 24, 2008 1:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

......

……

by Tommy Rancel on Nov 24, 2008 1:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Please never use Wins to defend a pitcher again.

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Nov 24, 2008 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

pretty good argument though

by TheUltimateBucFan on Nov 24, 2008 1:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Only in the eyes of a stupid GM.

let’s hope some GM is stupid enough to buy the “ZOMG 14 WINZ AND ERA OF 4 IN TEH AL EAST” argument.

I know that's a pisser, baby.

by Blicks on Nov 24, 2008 1:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm guessing thee are 8-10 stupid GM's out there that would LOVE to be in our position...to have an EJax as a 6th starter? Seriously

by TheUltimateBucFan on Nov 24, 2008 1:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Scratch that....how about 31 "stupid" GM's

by TheUltimateBucFan on Nov 24, 2008 1:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's amusing, since there's only 30 GMs total.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 24, 2008 1:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that was intended....meaning every GM +1

by TheUltimateBucFan on Nov 24, 2008 1:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Having him as a 6th starter is GREAT.

but GMs don’t give up pieces of value for “6th starters”.

The Rays want something of value for EJax, as that’s the motive in a trade.

Thus, the team the Rays trade EJax to will need to have an open rotation spot 1-5.

I know that's a pisser, baby.

by Blicks on Nov 24, 2008 1:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dude, Edwin had a higher ERA+ than Pedro.

He’s clearly a perennial all-star in the making.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 24, 2008 1:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So we agree to disagree. No biggie. SOMEONE will overpay. And if not, Friedman WILL find at least equal value.It's what he does....

gotta run….late

by TheUltimateBucFan on Nov 24, 2008 1:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wait, what are we arguing?

I don’t think Church is bad value, but we have Gross, so no point. I wouldn’t do the deal because of that, but in terms of value, not a bad one.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 24, 2008 1:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hey

It got Jason frigging Marquis a 3 year deal at $7M a year. Edwin Jackson is CLEARLY better than Jason Marquis, and has way more upside, right?

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 24, 2008 3:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And Ryan Church is not a good full time replacement in RF...not for a team wanting to get back to playoffs

by TheUltimateBucFan on Nov 24, 2008 1:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

OK, if Hunter Pence is "untouchable" then how about Billy Butler?

by TheUltimateBucFan on Nov 24, 2008 1:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Butler should be available.

I know that's a pisser, baby.

by Blicks on Nov 24, 2008 1:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But isn't

Keith Law: (2:29 PM ET ) It’s possible, and they would want young pitching. I was told today that they’re not interested in dealing Butler – they want to platoon him at DH instead

by Tommy Rancel on Nov 24, 2008 1:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Platoon? Dayton Moore makes me WTF.

I know that's a pisser, baby.

by Blicks on Nov 24, 2008 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

thanks for info though.

I know that's a pisser, baby.

by Blicks on Nov 24, 2008 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No prob

maybe he wants to give Mike Jacobs more ab’s to raise his .299 OBP.

by Tommy Rancel on Nov 24, 2008 1:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I have to imagine this is blowing smoke out their asses to push up his value

They feel no need to trade Butler, but it sure makes a lot of sense if they get a good deal for him. They won’t trade him for Edwin Jackson alone, but if they are able to fill multiple positions with cheap talent who can man the respective positions for a long time, then there’s no good reason for them to not trade Butler.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 24, 2008 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dayton Moore terrifies me.

In the sense that he’s bound to fail into one good trade.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 24, 2008 1:46 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

i was hoping this thread was about finding a new church for edwin...

:-(

by daveh33 on Nov 24, 2008 2:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The Indians need SP

The Tribe is the perfect fit for the Rays if Friedman does trade a SP or two. 1st, the Indians could cough up RH 1B/ DH Ryan Garko who is a hitting machine, young, and cheap. He came up in the minors catching so he could displace Navarro if injury occured. 2nd, the Indians have an abundance of young OF’ers. If Jackson or Niemann are going to be dealt, RH hitting OF’er Franklin Guttierrez can flat out play the field and hit the snot out of the ball with power.

I would fully expect Friedmans Blackberry to be burning up with calls from Indians GM Mark Shapiro after the holidays.

by John 63 on Nov 24, 2008 5:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ryan Garko who is a hitting machine, young, and cheap.

He’s not a hitting machine or young, but he is cheap. He’ll be 28 next year, and he only had 14 HRs this year. His career slash line of /.282/ .353/ .447 is decent, but I don’t think he’s anything special.

by rglass44 on Nov 24, 2008 5:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i've got a man crush on Shoppach

…. what about LaPorta? plzzzzzz

by daveh33 on Nov 24, 2008 5:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gutierrez plz kthxbai

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 24, 2008 9:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

what does "kthxbai" mean?

by walkoffwalk on Nov 25, 2008 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ok thanks bye

I know that's a pisser, baby.

by Blicks on Nov 25, 2008 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ah

by walkoffwalk on Nov 26, 2008 12:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The Indians' front office is intelligent. They won't want Edwin.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 25, 2008 10:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But if you add his Wins plus Innings then divide by 2 you get

98.6. Let me say that again 98.6!1

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found
a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up
that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Nov 25, 2008 12:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Proving, what, he's the right temperature for a human?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 25, 2008 6:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nothing

that was the joke.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found
a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up
that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Nov 26, 2008 1:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How long have the Rays tried to snag Heilman?

Seems like this rumor pops up every year and nothing ever happens, it’s becoming a tradition.

by atlantaray on Nov 27, 2008 6:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Gabe Gross Sucks he is the reason we lost the world series!

I hope he knows he choked bad in the world series at the plate and on the field.

He is a big time game liability. I have seen them all my life!

Devil Rays World Series 2009

by Japhei on Nov 30, 2008 10:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Absolute nonsense.

Gross is not a great ballplayer, nor is he qualified to be a regular. But he has real value in his role as a defensive reserve and occasional starter against righties. At various times during the season, he became a semi-regular and performed very well, including some highlight at bats that won games.

He had a terrible post-season, but the Rays lost the World Series because they were generally outplayed by the Phillies, not because Gross “choked”. That is a terrible thing to say about any player, and particularly terrible when you have no way to know his psychological state. It is a form of character assassination and unworthy of any decent person.

by bobr on Nov 30, 2008 10:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The guy is a born choker!

No offense but Eric Hinske won some games with the bat and even though his defense sux he can hold his own in the clutch. Gabe Gross is at best a AAAA player. The guy just does not have what it takes to play in the majors.

Even though he struckout to end the world series he still gave it his all when Cliff went down.

Devil Rays World Series 2009

by Japhei on Dec 1, 2008 9:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs