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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

Player Review: Grant Balfour

As if Joey Gathright for JP Howell wasn't a big enough steal, the Rays pulled off the small trade of the year in 2007 when they got Grant Balfour from Milwaukee for much-maligned starter/reliever Seth McClung. Since the trade, Grant Balfour has run circles around McClung on the field. This year Grant Balfour had a tRA of 2.08 in the bigs and .80 in AAA Durham. Seth McClung, on the other hand, had a tRA of 4.61. Grant Balfour played a huge role in ensuring the Rays win games.

Grant Balfour had a WPA of 2.69. He did this without being on the team for the first 50 games. He was arguably one of the three best relievers in baseball. He was third in tRA for relievers with more than 50 IP. His rate stats illustrate his dominance. Despite throwing his fastball 91.63% of the time, he struck out 12.65 per 9 IP and gave up .46 HR/9. He did walk a few batters (3.70/9 IP), but his tremendous ability to miss bats kept him from getting burnt by it.

All in all, Balfour was great this year. He was the best pitcher on the staff. If he had been there all year, then I have little doubt he would have been the team MVP (at least in my eyes) and led us to a win or two more. The intense Aussie dominated this year, and I hope he comes close to matching it next year. One would think that would be tough since he is primarily a one-pitch pitcher. Jonathon Papelbon and Mariano Rivera, the two relievers that finished ahead of Balfour in tRA, are essentially one-pitch pitchers as well. Rivera throws his cutter 82% of the time, and Papelbon throws his fastball 82% of the time. So, if Balfour could work off his slider just a little bit more, then he might be able to sustain this kind of production into the future.

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I remember getting calls from my boys in Wisconsin laughing at us for getting Grant.

They said he would for sure bring his gas can to the bump every time out.

Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Nov 26, 2008 11:32 AM EST reply actions  

I have the same concern

about him being a one pitch pitcher. I think he needs to have at least one reasonably effective second pitch to keep hitters guessing. I do not see him remaining successful with just the fastball, especially as his control is spotty.

by bobr on Nov 26, 2008 1:20 PM EST reply actions  

I have the same concern

I agree bob, I also have concerns. However, I actually think his slider is somewhat effective. With a little better FB command (.ie getting ahead in the count) the slider can be a SO pitch for him. The slider can be effective just to show it at times. I don’t care how hard you throw, MLB hitters will catch-up to it if they can sit dead red.

by bobbyray1 on Nov 26, 2008 2:47 PM EST up reply actions  

I will be honest

He had like 0.36 ERA before he got promoted and you will hate me for this, I thought he would disappoint and be nothing more than a AAAA player. SO happy I was wrong :)

by joeybw on Nov 26, 2008 1:29 PM EST reply actions  

Dohman? Really? Over Balfour?

I was the same way. But even worst was Gary Glover making the opening day roster. It made me puke. Glover with more career blown save than saves

by 13frain on Nov 26, 2008 1:29 PM EST reply actions  

Superman wears Grant Balfour Pijamas

2-21-08 $338 on the Rays to win the Pennant at 95:1 = $32,448. -bet placed by the new Matt Garza Fan Club Preisdent.

by Kenny845 on Nov 26, 2008 2:28 PM EST reply actions  

I'm hoping for an ERA around 2.70 next year.

Anyone have their own projection/guess as to how he will do next year?

Compared to previous years, Balfour’s FB% jumped last year. Could this be the result of going with the fastball more so than in the past or are GB/FB rates prone to random variation from one year to the next?

by RATW on Nov 28, 2008 3:35 AM EST reply actions  

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