2008 Player Reviews: Andrew Sonnanstine

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 29, 2008 8:19 PM EST

In the history of this site, no debate has been as tiresome or ridiculous as the Edwin Jackson/Andrew Sonnanstine bloodbaths of the previous season. It seemed like after every other start a new comment or fanpost would ignite the stat geeks with the scoutheads into a 100+ entry rehash of the last argument. Frankly, I think it was a healthy exercise at times. It brought up a lot of interesting perspectives and possibilities.

In the end though, Sonnanstine was the better pitcher than Jackson in 2008 by any metric you like, including: ERA, tRA, and FIP. So yeah, I've heard all the talk about how I'm a Sonnanstine homer, and how I'm in love with him, but if someone offers equal value to a true talent 4ish RA starter, then by all means I'd be fine dealing him. Otherwise, there's no reason he can't be our Justin Duchscherer for the next few seasons.

Oddly, Sonnanstine's BABIP only dropped 0.017 points. The key appears to be a homerun reduction and a LOB% regression. One of those two things was in Sonnanstine's hands. Also before I point this next item out, I'd like to quote Bill James who once wrote something to the effect of: "A great deal of what is perceived as being pitching is in fact defense."

With that in mind, Sonnanstine did change his pitch selection, or at least usage, this season. Reducing his fastball usage and increasing his cutter usage. Did that lead to improved results? I have no idea. I'm inclined to say no, since it's not like he suddenly morphed into a good pitcher.

Heading forward, I expect more of the same. Although I really hope Sonnanstine is not morphed by the media into some "gamer", "winner", "scrapper" type of pitcher. That doesn't do him justice and gives the wrong impression to the fanbase. If nothing else, write about his love of Ray Romano and Pizza Hut.

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Comments

xOUTs

Hello everyone, long time troll here who finally stripped the laziness and decided to post. I am someone who is on the Andy Sonannstine bandwagon, no reason this guy can’t see his “popular” metrics improve going through next year, and I’m pretty confident he will be a very solid pitcher for us.

I just found it odd that the defensive upgrades (which were obvious) were supposed to help out guys like Sonnanstine who drew high ground ball rates, but it seemed (both statistically and watching the games) that Sonny’s defense was lackluster at best behind him. Statcorner has him as the 10th worst in terms of Outs – xOuts (expected outs) at -17 (league “leader” is Randy Johnson at -29 for those who are interested). I think we can expect that to regress, and if he pitches the same way I could see all of his numbers going down a little bit.

Its still a mystery to me as to why the defense only played so poorly behind him. (Edwin, on the other hand was the 7th best in the league in this stat with a +20 mark).

by Navi's_Navy on Nov 30, 2008 12:17 AM EST reply actions

Well, as mentioned, his BABIP didn't drop to the .300 range, but rather to .313.

I’m not sure how he still is amongst the leaders of xOuts, but I’m guessing it has to do with liners.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 30, 2008 9:52 AM EST up reply actions

welcome aboard! things are going to get real interesting in the next couple of years

with wade davis and jeremy hellickson and possibly jacob mcgee (who i think is likely to be a power lefty in the future) ready to join the rotation

everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds

by RaysOfHope on Nov 30, 2008 1:37 AM EST reply actions

McGee

Will most likely get moved to the bullpen to spare his arm and hopefully accelerate his development. Also, I’m always surprised that Niemann and/or Talbot are no longer mentioned in the same respect. Matt Moore as well, sure he is a long way off, but he has shown he has the potential to be a (hopefully) healthy version of McGee. I’m salivating at just how good our bullpen could be (especially if we get Morlan back and he gets past his arm issues. Jae Kuk Ryu over him was ridiculous). Morlan/McGee/Sonny ((supposing that Ejax’s spot gets taken by Price his will get taken by Davis/Hellickson))/the loser from Davis/Hellickson/Thayer and I have no idea about a LOOGY down the road.

by Navi's_Navy on Nov 30, 2008 11:13 AM EST up reply actions