Bold Prediction: FA DH Splurge
by Sky Kalkman on Nov 3, 2008 7:00 PM EST
36 comments
Given:
- an excessive number of big-bat, no-field players available this off-season (Manny, Burrell, Dunn, Bradley, Giambi, Abreu, Ibanez, Thomas)
- more teams are wising up that these guys aren't generally worth their contracts
- there aren't a ton of teams looking for corner outfielders/DHs
I'm concluding:
- only a few of these guys will be paid like their agents expect them to be paid
- the rest will settle for smaller contracts
- one will fall to the Rays for a two-year contract not exceeding $15MM total (if it's Thomas, no more than $5MM total)
One big issue, especially to the Rays, is the potential loss of a draft pick by signing a Type A free agent. All seven players listed are Type A's, except Bradley (who's a B), Giambi and Thomas. While other teams will also find those three more appealing for the same reason, I am going out on a limb that the Rays' guy will be either Bradley, Giambi, or Thomas.
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People have been predicting this type of decline in the market value of aging, low defensive spectrum slugger types for years.
If it’s going to happen, it very well may be this offseason.
J.K.L.
by acblue on Nov 3, 2008 7:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Personal issues with Giambi aside...
I’d rather have a DH who is also capable of playing in the field, particularly RF.
by floridaroar on Nov 3, 2008 8:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
but DH....Designated Hitter...just hits....
Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans
BELIEVE in 08!
by SRQman on Nov 3, 2008 8:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, but a DH who can play ALSO occasionally play RF adds flexibility.
by floridaroar on Nov 3, 2008 9:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
In other words, I'd rather have someone like Dunn, Abreu or Magglio as DH.
With that added flexibility you can give Crawford or Upton a night off from the field and still keep them in the lineup as DH.
Giambi is a base path clogger too. Which doesn’t fit with one of the Rays biggest strengths – speed.
by floridaroar on Nov 3, 2008 9:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Abreu is awful in the OF.
Like, putting Giambi in RF might work out just as well.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 3, 2008 9:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's extremely hyperbolic.
Tools Whore
Sign Bonds!
by Tyler on Nov 3, 2008 9:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and cliff floyd has a ton of speed
name one DH who has speed
everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds
by RaysOfHope on Nov 3, 2008 9:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Milton Bradley
Almost every DH in the league is faster than Floyd.
by floridaroar on Nov 4, 2008 9:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A sundial would be needed to time a race between Cliff Floyd and Ken Griffey Jr.
by kericr on Nov 4, 2008 1:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Just let them run.
And the first to blow out a knee loses.
by floridaroar on Nov 4, 2008 1:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Abreu would cost our first round draft pick, which I think outweighs the benefit of the flexibility.
Dunn, too, and he probably costs significantly more than Giambi. Magglio would have trade costs.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Nov 4, 2008 8:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's a fair request. But let's consider the relative trade-offs
One, gaining the flexibility MIGHT be worth half a win over the season, whereas it’s a good chance Giambi is much more than half a win better over whoever else would DH. Two, who DH’s when “Giambi” plays the field? Aybar? Zobrist? Someone else? Couldn’t THAT person just also play the field?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Nov 4, 2008 8:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This is assuming Giambi has a year like he did in 2008
and not one like he did in 2007 or 2004.
by floridaroar on Nov 4, 2008 10:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't forget 2005 or 2006
And if 2004 is Giambi’s downside, that’s not horrible: .356 OBP .433 SLG.
A simple Marcel projection puts him at .379 OBP, .478 SLG.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Nov 4, 2008 10:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, yeah... I know he's good.
I just don’t like the guy. I don’t know what it is. He annoys me!
There, I said it.
by floridaroar on Nov 4, 2008 12:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Finding a RFer defeats the idea of signing a DH.
Milton Bradley isn’t the answer at RF either. Unless you like seeing highly-paid players on the DL instead of in the lineup.
by kericr on Nov 3, 2008 8:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Keep Milton at DH.
If you have a power bat at DH, you can live with a Gross/Hinske/etc. platoon at RF.
Although, I’m still in the trade EBomb and prospects to D-Town for Maggs.
Keeps boots with da fur’s bat in the lineup.
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
by Blicks on Nov 3, 2008 8:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But he'd be a DH not a RF
.247/.373/.502 w/ 32 bombs and he saw 4.29 P/PA
by rglass44 on Nov 3, 2008 8:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Needs moar stache.
He mashes. If he puts up 2008-style numbers, awesome.
If the cost is affordable, go for it.
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
by Blicks on Nov 3, 2008 8:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Just give me Billy Butler for DH
and put Aybar or Rocco in RF.
He is our kind of player. Sky high ceiling that hasn’t nearly been reached (Garza, “Spitfire” Matthew}
by joeybw on Nov 3, 2008 8:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Trade for Butler:
The Royals need out of their 1B/DH clog so badly, he has to be on the block. The Royals need infielders desperately: Zobrist for Butler straight up? Maybe you could take a shot at Kila. Both might take more than just Zobrist.
Personally, I think butler will be a great hitter, and although he is literally NO field, I think he’d definitely make this trade worth while.
Also: Less than 15 million on a player? Most of those players are worth far more or far less than that amount. The total value doesn’t matter much anyway. It’s all about the per year value of the contract which I think should definitely be below five mil. That means most of those players are out of the question.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
by hazel on Nov 3, 2008 8:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
how about zobrist for A butler?
everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds
by RaysOfHope on Nov 3, 2008 9:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They signed Jacobs.
They can’t be expecting Butler to break out if they think Mike Jacobs makes their team better. They also have Kila coming up, and their MI looks like Tony Pena.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
by hazel on Nov 3, 2008 10:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But they're not giving him up for a utility guy either.
Tools Whore
Sign Bonds!
by Tyler on Nov 3, 2008 10:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
we should go for Bradley
If the man can stay healthy, hed be a great DH for us(if he can get over his anger issues etc)
by hFLYNN on Nov 4, 2008 12:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Are the Marlins losing faith in Hermida yet?
he wasn’t even starting for large stretches there.
by daveh33 on Nov 4, 2008 4:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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