2008 Player Reviews: Bossman Junior Upton.

by P Brady on Nov 3, 2008 8:01 PM EST

The Bossman had high expectations going into this season, people thought he would enter the 30/30 club, and while he didn't quite live up to the hype this year, he improved many aspects of his game, and better adjusted himself to the CF position, putting in a top 10 CF season and putting his name along with the game's brightest futures.

B.J. Upton hit .278/.383/.401, the first thing that jumps out is the massive improvement in his walking ability, thanks to leading the league in O-Swing% at 14.96%, he also made contact 65% of the time when he did swing at balls out of the zone, and made contact 80% of the time period, if he can do this year in and year out, he'll probably be a perennial top 5-10 player in terms of OBP and patience.

The second thing that jumps out at you is the massive decrease in power, part of this is due to the torn labrum he suffered against the Baltimore Orioles early in the year, and partly to a massive decrease in his HR/FB, by about 12%. His hitting for average was also a bit flukey with a .351 BABIP with only an 18.9% LD%, suggesting he is due for a bit of regression.

In the playoffs however, Upton completely changed, his slugging abilities improved to the tune of a line of .288/.333/.652, with 7 HRs in 72 PAs. Furthermore, he increased his hitting for average with his BABIP dipping to .279 even with a LD% increase of 2%, suggesting he was very unlucky. So which is the real B.J. Upton? I'd tend to believe somewhere in the middle, and after his shoulder heals he'll add the pitch recognition he added from 2008 to the power and Line Drive ability he showed in the Postseason and in 2007, I'll be bold and predict a line of .290/.400/.530 with around 25-30 HRs from him next year.

Upton is still a work in progress with the glove, but he excited flashing great range in the field, even though he only saved 3 runs above replacement, with his speeed and range if he learns to take better routes he could easily be up with Beltran, Sizemore, and Granderson in terms of total value next year, which should make RJ a happy camper.

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I'll say .390/.450.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 3, 2008 8:08 PM EST reply actions

You think his power will still be sapped?

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Nov 3, 2008 8:09 PM EST up reply actions

I'm keeping my expectations in track.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 3, 2008 8:15 PM EST up reply actions

In track? Not in check?

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Nov 3, 2008 8:17 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, odd mistake to mail.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 3, 2008 8:20 PM EST up reply actions

Upton this year:

161 games, 101 Rs, 83 RBIs, 16 HRs, 38 2B, 50/66 SB, 150/102 K/BB, .274/.378/.429/.807

I’ll be a little more bullish than RJ:

.400/.480

by rglass44 on Nov 3, 2008 8:26 PM EST reply actions

Remember, the closest bid to the actual price without going over wins their showcase.

And if you’re within .00500 points, you win BOTH showcases!

by kericr on Nov 3, 2008 8:48 PM EST up reply actions

His power stats were way down

but that was with the shoulder injury. You have to believe that a healthy Upton would put up about 25-30 HRs a year

Sternberg/Friedman '08!!

by JMB on Nov 4, 2008 12:43 AM EST reply actions

He certainly showed what he is capable of with his hard-swing in the postseason.

If he has a fully healthy year next year………. I’ll say .290/.395/.475…….but anything over an .850 OPS would make me giddy.

Who knows after that postseason he had, the sky is the limit for Beej.

by twenty5psi on Nov 4, 2008 1:40 AM EST reply actions

i like this .290/.400/.530

before i read the numbers i had .285/.385/.520 in my mind… P Brady and I are ready for it to happen.

by daveh33 on Nov 4, 2008 4:49 AM EST reply actions

What's the status on Upton's off-season surgery?

Still having it? When? Expected recovery time?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 4, 2008 9:22 AM EST reply actions

He said he was.

Although the tear is probably not a significant one. I would think it would probably be a relatively minor surgery with him being ready for the start of the regular season.

If it’s a major tear, rehab can be up to 6 months or more for a non-throwing shoulder. I don’t think that’s the case though.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Nov 4, 2008 9:54 AM EST up reply actions

This is kind of interesting

Here is the projected slash line for Beej using pre-season Chone:
.273/.364/.437
.278/.383/.401 —→ Actual

Without crunching any numbers too hard I could see a .290/.385/.445 line next year. I really want to boost that slg, but I want to see him do it first. .830 OPS with an above-average glove in an important position puts him in a nice position going into arbitration. Not so much for the team so instead of signing a DH this offseason lets make a sincere effort to lock this man up. He is willing to go year-to-year to max his contract, so lets just blow him away now with a big-time deal.

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Nov 4, 2008 10:52 AM EST reply actions