This Rumor Stinks

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 30, 2008 1:52 PM EST Comment 51 comments

5. Jermaine Dye: The White Sox right fielder fits so well with a few teams, including Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, and the Mets. Dye was a player the Red Sox were hot after before pursuing J.D. Drew. The Rays are trying to deal the back of their starting rotation - Andy Sonnanstine or Edwin Jackson - for a power-hitting righthanded [sic] bat, but the White Sox would want more.

Dye makes 11.5 million in 2009. Let's do the math, assuming the soon to be 35 year old loses some hitting and fielding ability.

Position: -0.75

Fielding: -0.8

Hitting: 1.0

Replacement level: 2.25

Wins above replacement: 1.7

Estimated value: 8.6 million

That's without talking about the one million dollar buyout (I'm guessing the Rays would rather not have a 36 year old with a 12 million dollar contract around.)

Assume Edwin loses a run or so off of his tRA and becomes a 4.5 reliever, who throws 75 innings as a long-man/mop-up type. He's a 0.5 WAR player just like that, and we're assuming he doesn't improve by much more than the average transition. Plus Edwin's going to be paid right around what an ARB1 0.5 WAR player should be (~1.2 mil) and they want more?

No thanks, I'd rather take my chances on Nick Evans.

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In my opinion

Dye is a tough buy. He came back and had a great year last season, his value is very high, is aging quickly, is a defensive liability, and is quickly regressing on all fronts. Further he is owed 11.5 million next year with a 12 million dollar option in 2010. So why do that when we can just sign Giambi, Bradley, etc for the same amount of money, and save Jackson or Sonnanstine for a different trade. Just doesnt make sense when the FA DH market is so deep and Dye is at best a DH who wandered into RF. I know Jackson’s value wont be higher than right now (esp if he moves into the bullpen), so we need to trade him, but I think we can use him in a trade to address something else.

by BossmanJunior333 on Nov 30, 2008 2:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I agree.

by floridaroar on Nov 30, 2008 3:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ditto.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 30, 2008 3:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

In a perfect world

we could sign a FA DH ala Giambi, Bradley, etc, trade Niemann/Jackson for a cheap RF canidate with defensive and offensive upside (Franklin Gutierrez?), trade the remaining Niemann/Jackson for a bullpen arm, and acquire a F.A.T loogy. Done and Done.

by BossmanJunior333 on Nov 30, 2008 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

no thx.

i’m sorry, but we proved last year that we could win a lot without an overpriced aging veteran to clog up our bases.

let’s keep the youth movement going plz… or if he must be old, then he must be cheaper than 12 mil.

by daveh33 on Nov 30, 2008 5:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't be opposed

If they send over a couple million in cash, if Giambi’s asking price seems to be higher than what Dye is getting. Jackson is surplusage, Dye would improve the team, and there’s no long-term commitment. $12M cash seems high in terms of salary, but I don’t think one year of Dye would be an unreasonably low return for Jackson

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 30, 2008 7:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I misspoke

he has a 10 million dollar option for 2010. My point is that if they cost roughly the same amount (Giambi and Dye) in salary and are capable of similar production, then keep Jackson and sign Giambi. Jackson can just be used in another trade.

by BossmanJunior333 on Nov 30, 2008 8:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm...

mlbcontracts says 12MM option

I know that's a pisser, baby.

by Blicks on Nov 30, 2008 8:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Also says limited no-trade clause.. anyone know the teams?

Seems highly unlikely either way.

by RATW on Nov 30, 2008 8:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nope.

signed 2-year deal worth 10.15M on 12/9/04- he will make 4M in 2005 and 5M in 2006- + the deal includes a Team Option for 2007 worth 6M or a 1.15M buyout- + 2007 option worth $6.75M was EXERCISED by CHW on 10/30/06- + 2007 salary rose to $7M by winning AL silver slugger award- + the deal includes a limited NO-TRADE clause that allows him to list four teams to which he cannot be traded to w/out his written consent (among those four teams is BOS)- + bonuses he had earned: $15K for 2006 silver slugger, $60K for fifth place finish in 2006 AL MVP voting- + later signed 2-year contract EXTENSION worth $22M thru 2009 season on 8/18/07- + he receives salaries of $9.5M in 2008 and $11.5M in 2009- + the deal includes a mutual option for 2010 worth $12M or a $1M buyout
Agent: Bob Bry

http://www.mlb4u.com/profile.php?id=818

Looks like Boston was one in his old contract.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 30, 2008 8:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

mlbcontracts and mlb4u disagree. Interesting.

mlbcontracts says limited NTC in 2009, 6 teams.

I know that's a pisser, baby.

by Blicks on Nov 30, 2008 8:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The MLB4U NTC is from his previous contract.

Time to do some google searching.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 30, 2008 8:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting tidbit:

Although Dye, who turns 35 next month, has a limited no-trade clause, the scouts said Williams has a short list of teams for his right fielder.

Before Dye was re-signed in August 2007, Williams was seeking at least two major-league-ready players. That was the compensation the Sox would have received if Dye had left the Sox for free agency and if he had signed with another team.

Talks with Boston broke down, apparently over Williams’ insistence to include top-notch reliever Justin Masterson.

But Williams appears to be looking more to the future to maintain a semblance of youth and reward successful players in the minor-league system.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/chi-13-white-sox-chicagonov13,0,7366873.story

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 30, 2008 9:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

From Rosenthal:

Dye, earning $11.5 million in the final year of his contract, amounts to a one-season rental. He can block trades to six clubs, most of which are in the northeast, according to a major-league source.

One potentially interested executive said his team was concerned that Dye batted only .210 with runners in scoring position and two outs last season — 36 points below the American League average.

Welp, we know that exec wasn’t Andrew…

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8845170/Braves-join-list-of-suitors-for-righty-Burnett?CMP=OTC-K9B140813162&ATT=49

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 30, 2008 9:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Welp is right.

Although, looking at the tidbit under it, the Rays hopefully will wait for the FA market to die down, then pounce like ravenous tigers on whatever DH-types are left over.

The Rays: Laying in wait

The Rays are one team that could pounce if the prices of free-agent hitters plummet.

I know that's a pisser, baby.

by Blicks on Nov 30, 2008 10:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They went hard on Holliday, so they're definitely not being too passive.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 30, 2008 10:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

how do we know

that they went hard after Holliday? All we heard was that the clubs talked and bogus names were thrown around, like a Crawford for Holliday trade. But that was it.

by BossmanJunior333 on Nov 30, 2008 10:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I didn't get that from the media.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 30, 2008 11:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ooooooo

inside source?

by BossmanJunior333 on Dec 1, 2008 12:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed, but Holliday's a fully different player though

Holliday hits AND plays good defense, while the rest of the guys give back runs in the field. And steals a few bases here and there.

Neither are any of the available DH types, including Dye, exception being made for Manny, who’s way out of price range, are 4-5 WAR players.

I know that's a pisser, baby.

by Blicks on Nov 30, 2008 11:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Because I can't get to points well

Holliday’s a one-of-a-kind player this offseason in terms of availability. Once he’s gone, there’s minimal reason to be aggressive unless darkhorses start really amping up the bidding. The other guys, including Dye, Giambi, etc. are not.

I know that's a pisser, baby.

by Blicks on Nov 30, 2008 11:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Very good observation.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 30, 2008 11:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Although the Rays NEED to aggressively pursue Brian Giles

He’s special. And awesome.

They’re the Padres. They have no need for Giles in 2009. He’s available.

Although IDK if Giles would block a trade or not.

I know that's a pisser, baby.

by Blicks on Nov 30, 2008 11:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I've wanted Giles since last May.

Maybe we platoon Ruggiano/Gross until July then deal for GIles?

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 30, 2008 11:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah but

Giles is owed 9 million plus a 2 million dollar trade bonus (split by the teams i believe). Im really not sure the 10 million we would pay him and the players we would trade away would be better than the 8-10 million we pay Giambi without having to give up anyone. Sure Giles plays great defense, but while his road stats show he COULD be an above average offensive player away from Petco, its still not a guarentee. He is just as old as Giambi and the only thing he does better is actually play defense.

by BossmanJunior333 on Dec 1, 2008 1:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Giles is a 4-5 WAR player.

Elite defensive RF. Something Giambi isn’t.

With Giles in RF, the Rays can just put Aybar at DH, or platoon him with some F.A.T. option.

Giambi is a 2 WAR player. Huge, HUGE difference.

I know that's a pisser, baby.

by Blicks on Dec 1, 2008 1:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I understand

but I guess in my mind, i forsee the Rays “paying” for a bat, likely at DH and acquiring a young outfielder who would be under team control for multiple years, cost effective, and plays elite defense. I wouldnt pay 10 mil for a 38 year old who’s greatest attribute is defense.

by BossmanJunior333 on Dec 1, 2008 1:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I like that idea. Or just snag him this offseason

It is rumored that he might want a contract extension if traded. And he might not approve a trade this offseason though. Granted that he’ll be 38 next year…well, Giambi will be 38 next year as well, so that’s a moot point.

I know that's a pisser, baby.

by Blicks on Dec 1, 2008 1:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

From what I read

although he was opposed to a trade this summer, he has said that he would be open to a trade this winter to help the team. Not sure he would play on the other side of the country tho at his age and how dedicated he is to his family.

by BossmanJunior333 on Dec 1, 2008 1:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ugh

Yeah I thought it was 12 million but a recent blog post I read said that it was 10 million, so yeah, I went with it.

by BossmanJunior333 on Nov 30, 2008 10:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Will Giambi/Bradley really be that expensive?

There’s a glut of DH types(several will be miscast as OF) on the FA market and not many AL teams need a DH.

Giambi is pretty much restricted to AL only, unless some NL club gets REALLY stupid. I really can’t see him getting more than 2 years and 12MM/yr. If he were to get offers of more money/years, then a Dye trade might become a decent idea.

I just don’t think giving up trade chips (Edwin) to pay fair market value to a player is really an awesome business move.

I know that's a pisser, baby.

by Blicks on Nov 30, 2008 8:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I really cannot see Giambi making more than 8 mil a season.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 30, 2008 8:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I could see 10MM, max, but not much more.

I could also very easily see the Rays being the only “bidder” for Giambi, which would allow us to set the market.

Unless, of course, Brian Sabean’s lust for over-the-hill players kicks in, since the Giants do technically need a 1B. With Vizquel and Durham gone, Sabes has to fill his quota of over-the-hill vets.

I know that's a pisser, baby.

by Blicks on Nov 30, 2008 9:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But Pablo, and Phelps!

Sandoval is amusing. You’ll see why on BTB this week. Thursday I think.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 30, 2008 9:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mmmm, cool.

I thought I heard some stuff about Pablo possibly trying out 3B (although I don’t think he’ll crack the position defensively).

Forgot about Phelps. Still could be “injury insurance”. You never know with Sabean.

I know that's a pisser, baby.

by Blicks on Nov 30, 2008 9:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Upon further thought, you're right

I think the Rays will ultimately set the market for Giambino.

There are 7 FA OF/DH types, and 8 teams that need them(Cubs, Braves, Mets, Phillies, Rays, Reds) (including NL teams who might not be smart to sign these guys, due to defense issues), albeit two teams(Angels/Giants) are heavy question marks/dependent on other signings.

One of Giambi or Bradley will fall into the Rays’ laps.

I know that's a pisser, baby.

by Blicks on Nov 30, 2008 10:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and thus cost under 10MM/yr.

I know that's a pisser, baby.

by Blicks on Nov 30, 2008 10:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Happy time!

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans
09: This one is for all the rings.

by SRQman on Dec 1, 2008 12:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Or

Other teams will sign all of the lesser players first, leaving Manny, Dunn, Burrell, etc. as the unsigned players, and then teams that don’t have a need would jump in at the opportunity to get a big bat for below-market price.

There is precedent for this.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 1, 2008 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm. You're right.

What’s the precedent though?

I know that's a pisser, baby.

by Blicks on Dec 1, 2008 3:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Last year with the CFs, for example

And a team that didn’t need a CF playing “below-market” to sign Andruw Jones. It happens a lot though. Probably more than half the time there are too many players of a single position on the market, one or two of the big names sign early, then all the cheap players sign, and the guys who are left are the ones who were supposed to make the big money, not the ones who were supposed to make medium-level money.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 2, 2008 12:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Is there any reason to believe the FO is actually thinking about this?

Or is it a third party speculating? Or Sox leaks?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 30, 2008 7:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Speculation I guarentee

Friedman and the FO has been great at not leaking stories and has kept a tight lip. Even last year, nothing that was rumored or speculated ever happened and everything that did happen, we never got word of it until the last second or after it happened.

by BossmanJunior333 on Nov 30, 2008 8:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It was reported on by a Boston reporter

Sketch sketch.

I know that's a pisser, baby.

by Blicks on Nov 30, 2008 8:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sox don't leak

unless it’s already over. Also, overpaying by 3 million is such a bad thing? It’s not a big deal.

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Dec 1, 2008 1:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dye has averaged more than 25 BRAA (per BPro) over the last 4 seasons and last season was right on that mark

I see no justification whatsoever— none, zip, zero, zilch— for crediting him only 10 RAA next season. 20, maybe. That extra win is the difference between overpaid and UNDERpaid.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Dec 1, 2008 4:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I was using B-Ref's BtWins

http://www.baseball-reference.com/d/dyeje01.shtml

-0.5 for age, and assumed LD regression. Perhaps too much.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 1, 2008 8:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Justin's stats (and "mine" from 2007):

2008: Jermaine Dye 41 off, -7 pos, -7 field, 27 TOT
2007: Dye,JermaineCHA 18 off, -4 pos, -15, field, -2 TOT
2006: really really good, probably 20 runs better than 2008.

2008 is a realistic, if maybe slightly optimistic expectation of 2009 production. That’s 2.5 WAR.

Let’s also remember that this whole underpaid/overpaid thing is relative to free agent prices, which already implies overpaid.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 1, 2008 7:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Any chance the decreased cost for DH leads to increased chance to sign a late-inning reliever?

Hoffman most likely ends up with the Indians, there’s talk now that the Mets will trade for a closer, the Brewers if they don’t end up with any SP could aggressively pursue K-Rod (according to Rosenthal, I think), which leaves…the Rays with Fuentes, the guy they’ve wanted all along? Just as they pursued Holliday aggressively, they also pursued Fuentes as well. He adds both the late-inning relief and is left-handed, a win-win. An offseason of something like Giambi, Fuentes, and Ludwick (in potential E-Jax trade) would be an amazing off-season despite a limited payroll.

by raysfaninminnesota on Dec 1, 2008 10:34 AM EST reply actions 0 recs