Nate Silver is the man
He nailed the popular vote. And assuming the Missouri holds for McCain and NC holds for Obama, the only state he missed on was Indiana. Absolutely amazing! Congrats to all the guys over at 538
about 1 year ago
RaysTheRoof
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He's one of the smartest people around.
I’m astounded at how good he is.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 5, 2008 6:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Also missed the Alaska Senate race
But that’s more because Alaskans apparently don’t care that their Senator was convicted of corruption; I imagine that he’s not going to be able to serve from a jail cell.
by kericr on Nov 5, 2008 6:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Wasn't much polling data to go on.
His site was/is awesome.
by RATW on Nov 6, 2008 2:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They elected a convicted felon.
A felon who was convicted of taking bribes while he was in the very office of the people he was serving. He’s likely going to go to jail for taking money to support positions that the contingency that elected him did not support. Silver’s article on this does bring a good perspective that it might have happened because of Democrat voter indifference; but that doesn’t dismiss the fact that the people who did vote still voted him into office. Nobody should have voted for him because he does not serve the people who elect him, he serves his wallet.
The only reason why I can see he was elected was partisan politicing. While I don’t want to degrade this into a political discussion, Alaska is just as redneck as Mississippi and would only vote for a Democrat if it was their Democrat.
by kericr on Nov 6, 2008 9:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Point remains that Silver goes on polling data, which there was virtually none. Otherwise he would have probably seen this coming too.
I’m not getting into the details of the voting behavior of anti-government Alaskans and voting for convicted politicians or what constitutes a redneck state.
I will say my redneck state has two Democratic senators (one a woman), 3 of 4 House seats held by Democrats, a Democratic governor, and elected Bill Clinton to state office five times. I guess there are different shades of red neck and/or party affiliation isn’t necessarily a good way to judge.
by RATW on Nov 6, 2008 10:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He did have some data to go on
Like I said, he did have an article up talking about this, as well as 3 polls to go on after Stevens was convicted, and they showed a significant shift from him to the Democratic senate candidate, but his analysis doesn’t provide a whole lot of help there with 3 polls in a little over a weeks time after 3 polls over the last three months.
And for the record, I’m only angry at Alaska (and I meant to say Misourri instead of Mississippi). I don’t care if someone votes for a democrat or a republican as long as they vote for the candidate they feel best serves their needs or the needs of their country; Ted Stevens does neither, and he’s been a personal crusade of mine for quite a while now.
by kericr on Nov 6, 2008 11:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He brought more pork to Alaska than anyone else could
He served Alaska quite well, if you don’t care that he enriched himself in the process and took positions that hurt the rest of the country.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Nov 6, 2008 7:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This is different from my point
Funneling cash into your home state for community improvements is different then taking bribes to fund empty projects for your cronies. Representative C.W. Bill Young has funneled tons of cash into Pinellas County for the colleges there; he’s serving the best interests of his constituents. He’s not attempting to dump tons of cash into something eqivently stupid to the bridge to nowhere; that would be suspicious.
by kericr on Nov 6, 2008 11:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That bridge would have been sweet,
but I would have been worried about Godzilla type creatures using it to crawl out of the murky deep. Thank Gawd they canceled that.
Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found
a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up
that much.
~George Costanza~
by Sandy Kazmir on Nov 7, 2008 9:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The bridge to nowhere actually wasn't as dumb as everyone made it sound
It would have connected an airport to the mainland for a town of 5,000 people that otherwise has no other access to the outside world because the water freezes over in the winter and it’s surrounded by mountains. Without the bridge, there are a couple months a year when it’s damn near impossible to get provisions into the town.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Nov 7, 2008 9:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wrong.
The entire campaign in AK was about “keeping the seat red.” Alaska’s voters know Stevens is gone baby gone – the man has been convicted, after all. (I might point out that even though the dude is guilty, the prosecutorial misconduct in the case so outrageously abusive that it should have been thrown out altogether…ah, the moral dilemma of it all.) They voted for Stevens not because they want or expect him to continue in office, but rather because they want the seat to remain with the GOP. (In this case, there will be another election soon for the seat, and I’m assuming that Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell will run and crush the Democratic candidate like a grape.)
Give the voters in AK at least a modicum of credit.
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
by esoteric on Nov 7, 2008 1:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It is this 'keeping the seat red' mentality that I am blasting
“Alaska is just as redneck as Mississippi and would only vote for a Democrat if it was their Democrat.Alaska is just as redneck as Mississippi and would only vote for a Democrat if it was their Democrat.”
by kericr on Nov 7, 2008 10:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also, I should note Alaska's conflicting laws on their books pertaining to whether a new election or whether Sarah Palin gets to appoint the replacement Senator.
No guarantee that there will be an election anyway.
by kericr on Nov 7, 2008 10:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There will be an election, I'm pretty sure.
The law was changed after Frank Murkowski appointed his daughter to fill the other Senate vacancy (an act which, in part, contributed to his defeat by Sarah Palin for the Governor’s seat).
Either way, the seat will go red.
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
by esoteric on Nov 7, 2008 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
AK is overwhelming GOP. They have a strong desire to avoid a filibuster-proof 60 seat majority in the Senate
They are also justifiably very, very suspicious of the national Democratic party as an oil-producing state (the Democrats being in thrall to the environmentalist lobby). Therefore a “keep the seat red” mentality is not only understandable, it’s actually the more rational response for the AK electorate.
You’re thinking like a partisan here, asking angrily why they just won’t vote for your party. They have very smart reasons for not doing so, the corruption of Ted Stevens notwithstanding.
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
by esoteric on Nov 7, 2008 3:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hey - he may have been right after all
Absentee votes are finally getting counted and Begich is now in the lead over Felon Stevens
by Jason Collette on Nov 12, 2008 10:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hey Guys can you answer something for me...
Africa is a country, right?
by RaysTheRoof on Nov 7, 2008 11:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ahhh, funny, I get it.
Apparently it’s not true though.
by td32 on Nov 9, 2008 6:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Will Obama be a data driven president?
The right-of-center NY Times columnist David Brooks says he dreams of an “ostentatiously pragmatic and data-driven” White House. No more going with your gut (truthiness), decisions and arguments based on emotion (usually fear), no looking in eyes and seeing people’s souls or dogmatic adherence to political philosophy in the face of every challenge.
Is it possible to revolutionize government in the same way baseball has changed over the years?
Andrew Friedman for Secretary of State.
by RATW on Nov 7, 2008 9:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Moneypolitics
or saberpolicy
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Nov 7, 2008 10:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
For policy and similar topics, data and theory are the way to go, no doubt.
But I consider that (ideally) more of a Congressional issue. The President, in my mind, should be more of a leader of the people. He should use whatever ways he can (motivational/psychological/rhetoric/etc) to inspire people to do more and reach higher. Not that you can use data to figure out which methods and tactics will work the best for that…
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Nov 7, 2008 10:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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