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Player Review: Spitfire

Acquired last Winter for Delmon Young and change along with Barty and Eduardo Morlan, Garza pitched his first full season as a ray and pitched relatively well. Blessed with great stuff, Garza made strides in terms in terms of control and took a small step back with his strikeout ability and forcing groundballs. 

Garza had a FIP of 4.14, pretty much unchanged from his FIP of 4.18 in 2007. His LD% sat at 18.6% with a BABIP at .278, so his BABIP is worth around 30 points of regression, his HR/FB sat around his career average at 8.4%, but his GB% was down 6% to 41%. He K'd 6 per nine, down about a K from last year, and he walked about 1 less as well, improving to 2.88/9. His K/BB was better as a whole to a tune of 2.17, which is servicable, but something to improve on.

His tRA sat at 4.32, or 111+, a slight decrease from last year. One worrisome note about Garza is how his Swing Swtrikes have gone down to a career low. His fastball usage jumped this year, up to 72%, coming in a close second in terms of most used pitch was was his slider at 13%, followed by his changeup, than his Curveball. As such, his fastball velocity was down about a MPH and his secondary pitch velo was up on average by about 2 MPH each. 

For next year, I would expect him to regress in the batted ball field, while progressing in striking out and continued development on his control, and the control of his emotions on the mound. A FIP around 3.90 isn't out of the question, and a tRA+ around 120+ sounds reasonable, making him a servicable #2 starter, and yet again a key cog in the stacked pitching rotation.

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Am I correct

that Garza’s K rate increased dramatically in the last third of the season?

by bobr on Nov 7, 2008 6:18 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

bbref says

First 10 starts: 57.2 IP, 32 K, 24 BB, 6 HR, .708 OPSa Gamesc Range = 16:74
Next 10 starts: 66.1 IP, 48 K, 14 BB, 5 HR, .610 OPSa Gamesc Range = 21:90
Last 10 Starts: 60.2 IP, 48 K, 21 BB, 8 HR, .735 OPSa, Gamesc Range = 33:90

It would appear his middle 1/3 was the best looking at it with these parameters. I included game score, though I have no idea how it is computed, to show the idea that no matter how good he is going he is capable of a stinker.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found
a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up
that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Nov 8, 2008 11:11 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks.

It does show that his K/9 did increase as the year went on from a bit over 5/9 innings to a bit over 7/9 innings.

by bobr on Nov 8, 2008 3:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

To be honest.

It is because I brought the sign to more games when he was pitching.

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans
09: This one is for all the rings.

by SRQman on Nov 9, 2008 1:19 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Just coming in to say

I love Matt Garza so much and Andrew Friedman more.

The number say he took a step back but he looked so dominant (more dominant than ANY of our stud pitchers) at times and he has the nerves to pitch like that in a Game 7.

I love Garza, I really think he can be our most talented SP but most likely will be known as the #3 starter behind Price and Kazmir(he will be back next to owning next year) long term. James Shields will be the best #4 to ever live.

by joeybw on Nov 9, 2008 8:13 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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