6 Man Rotation?

by staplemaniac on Nov 9, 2008 4:52 PM EST

With many of the Rays young pitchers pitching more innings last season than their career norms, and our glut of minor league pitching who can make in the bigs, I thought to myself, "staplemaniac (how I refer to myself in the real world) why not just throw out 6 different pitchers? Buck the system! Take the red pill! Vive la ravolution!"

Okay, so here are the IP for our potential top 6 next season:

	2007 IP	2008 IP
James Shields	215	240
Scott Kazmir	206.2	191.2
Matt Garza	175	209.2
Andy Sonnanstine	201.2	210.1
Velociraptor Jesus	133.1*	129.1
Jeff Niemann	131	149

*Innings pitched in college.

Now, were the Rays to pitch a 6 man rotation instead of a 5 man rotation that would give each starter 27 starts instead of 32-33 starts. What would be the effect on a pitcher, and his ability to pitch, by reducing his workload by 6 starts? I took the last 6 starts for each of the above pitchers and found their FIP just for those games.

Pitcher	FIP Last 6 games	Overall FIP
James Shields	4.37	3.80
Scott Kazmir	6.27	4.61
Matt Garza	5.51	4.20
Andy Sonnanstine	5.07	4.09
Velociraptor Jesus	6.20	3.05
Jeff Niemann	3.90	4.09

I included the 1 inning Kaz pitched in the All-star game, because, hey, he was still pitching right? I accidentally assumed (read: hoped) that Edwin Jackson wouldn't be a part of the team next season and left him out of my calculations. Notice that Jeff Niemann (whom I think is awesome still) is the only one who's last 6 games were better than his everyday FIP. Every other pitcher had a worse FIP which supports my supposition that as the season wears on guys get tired and their pitching deteriorates slightly. I posit that a 6 man rotation next season would save arms for the playoffs and also give us fresher arms. I think we can get by with one fewer bullpen arm if all of our starters go deeper because they are getting more rest between starts and more rest throughout the season.

The other problem that arises is that David Price has never thrown more than ~133 innings in a season and, in general, you don't want to increase the IP of a pitcher more than 30 in one year for risk of blowing their arms up. At least that's the rule of thumb I've heard. I don't want Velociraptor Jesus's arm to blow up, I like his arm just like it is. A 6-man rotation would reduce the strain on both Niemann and Price while easing them into the grind of pitching in the Majors on a regular basis.

Okay, to be honest I just want to see more of Jeff Niemann.

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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Comments

This is a really thought-provoking (sorry to sound trite) idea!

Although it would really hurt their fantasy impacts.

Indie.

by .Taylor on Nov 9, 2008 5:02 PM EST reply actions

Screw fantasy impact.

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans
09: This one is for all the rings.

by SRQman on Nov 9, 2008 6:07 PM EST up reply actions

I was kidding, haha.

Indie.

by .Taylor on Nov 9, 2008 8:43 PM EST up reply actions

You'd have one less bullpen arm.

Hmm…

My dream would be platooning the fifth starter*, but I’m not sure I would platoon Niemann/Price.

*Planning ahead, pitch lefty v. left-handed weak team, righty v. right-handed weak team, other starter goes into bullpen to get his work for that week. Therefore you save innings and that roster spot.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 9, 2008 5:17 PM EST reply actions

I considered something like that

Because you still want Shields and Kaz pitching as much as possible (since there’s no restrictions on their arms and they’re both awesome). Using that method with Sonny/Niemann/Price might work out well.

by staplemaniac on Nov 9, 2008 5:23 PM EST up reply actions

The usual issue with the six-man rotation...

is that it’s tough to find five decent starters, let alone six. But with Niemann (or Jackson, I guess), the Rays have that problem solved. However, do we really want Shields, Kaz, Garza, and Sonny getting five fewer starts each so Niemann can have 20 (or whatever)?

20 starts at 6 IP each is 120 innings. 120 innings at a 4.75 ERA instead of a 3.75 ERA is a difference of 13 runs or 1.5 wins. So, not an awful idea, with the trade-off that we keep the pitchers healthier.

Of course, there’s also the option of a trade. What would Niemann/Jackson return from another team? And how much would they impact the Rays?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 9, 2008 5:51 PM EST reply actions

Just to be perverse

I suggest the Rays consider going to a 4 man rotation with one or two others used as long relievers/spot starters. Perhaps the rotation would be Kazmir/Shields/Garza/Sonnanstine with Price and Niemann (or Jackson) as long relievers or replace Sonnanstine with Price and use Andy in the long reliever/spot starter role along with Niemann/Jackson.

The argument would be that it is not really the number of starts that matter or even innings so much as it is the conditions under which the pitcher is throwing and the consistency of his mechanics that determine the likelihood of injury or ineffectiveness. And you want your best pitchers to get the most opportunities rather than having your fifth best starter using up 20% or so of the starts that could be divided among the 4 better ones. With one or two spot starters available, you could provide needed rest if someone needed it, avoid high stress situations for your more valuable pitchers if it is deemed prudent and provide fill-ins if someone is DLed.

An added benefit is that it might be a good way to introduce Price to a full season in the majors, limiting his innings/pitches, getting him some starts and keeping him busy in multiple inning outings. With just 4 regular starters, there should be no problem having to use him in back to back games.

by bobr on Nov 9, 2008 6:40 PM EST reply actions

Are there any stat incentives in our pitchers" contracts?

This would certainly tick off our players if they were told they would have less innings to meet incentives.

Regressing to the mean streets of St. Pete

by stpetelawyer on Nov 9, 2008 8:38 PM EST reply actions

No, and either way, it doesn't matter.

They’re under the contract of the team.

AKA the team can do whatever they want with them as long as the contract doesn’t say no (i.e. a no trade clause).

This.

by Blicks on Nov 9, 2008 8:55 PM EST up reply actions

but...

some players get bonuses for around 180+IP for starters and around 40-60+ IP for a reliever so in the future it may be more difficult to attract some FA SP’s with this set up, but if any team has the talent to do it , it is the Rays. I would only worry about having Kaz,Ejax, and Niemann in the same rotation pitchers who can throw a lot of pitches real early in a game and then having one less man in the pen to help out.

IF only Harry Carey could be arounde for Kosuke.

by CubFanRaysaddict on Nov 10, 2008 10:15 AM EST up reply actions