Edwin Jackson 2009
by Charmin519 on Dec 1, 2008 11:03 PM EST
47 comments
The Rays need to fill a few holes this offseason. First, we need to stop the revolving door at RF. Second, we need a DH that will help out the middle of the order. Finally, we need a closer.
There's talk about Jackson or Sonnanstine being bait to fill one of these holes. One of the reasons being the emerging Price. His stocked really moved up with great bullpen appearances in the post season. Should we keep Price in the Pen to start the year? This could be a similar approach as Joba for the Yankees.
What if Jackson has his breakout year in 2009? Jackson has value this offseason but it's hard to imagine his stock bringing what we need in RF or at DH. Jackson is not an eye sore for our cap and could easily eat innings in multiple roles. Jackson as a UTILITY arm could be very useful next year. If one of our starting 4 get injured then we might be in a tight spot in the best division in baseball.
With all of this said, "I think we should bargain shop in January to fill holes." It sounds horrible but I think there are option on the FA market this year and unless we maximize on a trade I think we stick to what worked in 2008. RF is huge this year and Edwin will not fill that need in a trade. Will depth in the pitching game and a bargain deal bat be enough for 2009? Should we keep Jackson and plan on him starting in 2009?
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Niemann is cheaper, Talbot is cheaper, and both are capable of being 5 RA starters like Jackson.
We can say “What if he breaks out” all along, knowing what we know, he’s not a particularly good starter and probably a 4.5 RA reliever. That’s not irreplaceable by Talbot or Niemann, and neither of them are arbitration eligible.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 1, 2008 11:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
This this this goddammit RJ be less smart
Indie.
by Taylor H on Dec 1, 2008 11:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Can you please remove RJ's balls from your mouth?
Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans
09: This one is for all the rings.
by SRQman on Dec 2, 2008 12:21 AM EST up reply actions 10 recs
Your trade value just skyrocketed.
Indie.
by Taylor H on Dec 2, 2008 3:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
there i just made it green light able
everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds
by RaysOfHope on Dec 2, 2008 4:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Your sig goes well with your comment.
Indie.
by Taylor H on Dec 2, 2008 11:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You kinda made my point
If everything is true of Jackson then what type of trade does he bring? If we keep him are we required to offer him arbitration or can we release him? I’m just saying we shouldn’t trade him for nothing.
by Charmin519 on Dec 2, 2008 12:47 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Nontendering him is unbelievelibly stupid
Some players avoid arbitration, and opt to sign a 1 year deal instead, not going to the arbitrator to set the salary. But, one or the other has to happen.
What kind of value does he bring in a trade? Depends on the intelligence level of the other GM. If the other GM is Omar Minaya, or Brian Sabean, or Ned Colletti, you get the idea, you might get quite a bit. Edwin’s value is more percieved than real, due to those gaudy ERA/win totals
Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.
by Blicks on Dec 2, 2008 1:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Your points seem to be:
A) Don’t deal Edwin unless
1) Brings back value
2) Hampers payroll
1 is an obvious. You shouldn’t deal him for peanuts because some dumb team will buy into him as being average or better than. What you need to understand is that 2 is a reality. He’s not “HAMPERING” so to speak, but consider this:
Edwin might make 1-1.5 mil in arbitration. Niemann or Talbot can likely match his production for 400k, and Niemann is out of options, so he’s probably on the roster or traded. If you can save 700k and get similar production from an unimportant part of your pitching staff, doesn’t that seem like a smart thing to do?
As for your question I don’t understand why you would bring up releasing him when you say don’t trade him for nothing. Edwin was basically a 1 WAR starter last season. With our pitching depth, that’s easily replaceable and for less cost. Hell, if you get offered a platoon RF who isn’t a dinosaur or making a ton of money, why WOULDN’T you make that one-for-one swap.
Take Nick Evans for example. 23 next season, if he replicates last season and plays 40% of the time in right field he’s a 0.6 WAR player. If his numbers improve (they should, playing only against lefties) he’s probably a 1+ WAR player, and he’s cost controlled for three seasons.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 2, 2008 1:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nick Evans cost controlled for 3 seasons?
I thought it was 6; Evans has no service time.
Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.
by Blicks on Dec 2, 2008 1:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Cost controlled = pre-arb.
The Rays determine his contracts, in arbitration he’s controlled, but not nearly to the extent he would be those first three years.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 2, 2008 1:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My bad. It's late at night.
I got “team control” and “cost control” messed up.
Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.
by Blicks on Dec 2, 2008 1:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Knowing that
Wade Davis could suppliment Jackson or Sonnanstine mid-season, it seems kind of silly fighting over which pitcher is better, when we all know there is a kid who is much more talented and will be ready for the major leagues in less than a year.
by BossmanJunior333 on Dec 2, 2008 12:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Sonnanstine vs. Davis
I wouldn’t be sure just yet that Davis is/will be better than Sonny. Sonny’s numbers were great every step of the way until the bigs, and he has proven to be at least a ML average back of the rotation guy. Until Davis does that, I wouldn’t just pencil him in.
by rglass44 on Dec 2, 2008 10:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So are you saying......
Sonnanstine and Jackson?
by Charmin519 on Dec 2, 2008 1:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
No. It's highly unlikely any team gives us equal value for Sonnanstine.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 2, 2008 1:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Only because you overvalue him
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Dec 2, 2008 12:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, who wants 4 RA starters anyways?
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 2, 2008 1:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Because he's not a 4 RA starter
I’ve expressed this about a hundred times now, but I feel that tRA overrates Sonnanstine.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Dec 2, 2008 1:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
FIP overrates him as well
His BABIP is and always has been higher than his peripherals would indicate.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Dec 2, 2008 7:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
More likely:
- Every defensive independent metric overrates him
- You underrate him
His BABIP was around .310 this year, that’s not absurdley high.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 2, 2008 7:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
When you consider that the team average was about .280
It’s pretty high. I don’t think I underrate him. I think he’s a solid #3 starter on most teams, and a good innings eater. His traditional statistics reflect this – his ERA+ was around 100, and the average for a #3 starter is around 95, and he pitched around 200 innings, which is innings eater territory, especially these days. But I’ve seen some comments to the effect that he was a top 25 SP in the majors this year. The only way you can come to that kind of conclusion is if you ignore that his BABIP, even in the minors, has been higher than the players surrounding him.
Maybe someday soon there will be a way for lasers to measure speed and angle of hits so that way it can be reflected more accurately, but someone who has a lot of hard line drives and low fly balls hit off of him will get overrated, because FIP and tRA assume that the balls hit off a player have a normal velocity distribution.
In any case, it seems like there are a number of teams that value Sonnanstine pretty highly, and the fact that there’s a real logjam in the rotation at the moment (there are already 6 guys who would be #4 starters or better on other teams, and that’s not including guys like Niemann, Talbot and Davis, who could still develop into good pitchers in the next couple years) means that we’re not going to get full value for ANY of our starters. Any GM with a brain knows that we have to get rid of at least one, and probably two of our starters within the next year, and because of our surplus, we just won’t be able to charge as much. However, if we’re able to get someone who improves the marginal value of the team more than Sonnanstine leaving decreases it, then we should feel like we’re in pretty good shape.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Dec 4, 2008 10:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And lest you forget
Sonny’s been my boy for a long time now. I’ve been on his bandwagon for years. I don’t dislike him at all, I’m just thinking realistically about his actual value.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Dec 4, 2008 10:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
which peripherals indicate BABIP levels?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 2, 2008 7:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We really need a test for pitchers that tRA over-values.
I’m sure it does some players, but is there any way to tell other than many years of data? I’m sure this goes back to the “hittable” tag for Sonny. But is there a way to tell which pitchers are “hittable”, maybe by scouting reports, and then see if they don’t live up to their tRA?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 2, 2008 5:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Scouting reports aren't going to work.
All of the guys without sexy arms are going to be categorized as overachieving.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 2, 2008 6:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
this
Greg Maddux had the “Grit” and “Gamer” lable attached to him because he didnt have a high 90’s fastball.
Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Dec 3, 2008 10:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
attached to him when coming up with the Cubs.
Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Dec 3, 2008 10:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Plus, you're talking about having to find updated scouting reports from people who knew what they're talking about.
I suppose you could use pitchf/x instead, but otherwise you’re going to end up with a report saying Shields’ change is average.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 3, 2008 1:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Dec 3, 2008 2:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I bet it underrates lefties because they're better at controlling the running game.
Also clutch situational pitching
by Graham on Dec 3, 2008 10:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nope
Im saying its kind of silly trying to figure out which pitcher is better when neither is likely in the longterm plans. Of course, something crazy like a Kazmir trade could happen and Sonnanstine/Jackson AND Davis could both be needed longterm. Figure in injuries, and you get more of the same. If/when Davis does enter the picture, you have to imagine the other one will be traded anyways (although Sonny would make a decent bullpen arm). I completely agree that Sonny is better, but im also of the persuation that we might want to see which one would net us a greater return this winter. Would a full season the return we get for Sonny this winter exceed the value lost from having Jackson in the rotation for half a season?
by BossmanJunior333 on Dec 2, 2008 2:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wouldn't it just be easier to create something like:
Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found
a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up
that much.
~George Costanza~
by Sandy Kazmir on Dec 2, 2008 8:34 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Isn't the bullpen in for a huge regression next season?
That should open a spot for Edwin.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
by hazel on Dec 2, 2008 4:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Problem is
that Edwin is due for a huge regression as well.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Dec 2, 2008 7:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Which is very scary....
Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans
09: This one is for all the rings.
by SRQman on Dec 2, 2008 7:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He'll likely gain a run by a move to the BP
So, instead of 5 RA pitcher he becomes a 4 RA pitcher. That isn’t bad at the back-end of the bullpen. Then, if he actually does progress at all he might turn in to a guite good reliever.
by rglass44 on Dec 3, 2008 9:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I suspect he'll do similar to Hammel in the bullpen
Maybe a little better, but not significantly better enough to justify keeping him and releasing (or trading for peanuts) Hammel when we could get actual value for trading Jackson or Sonnanstine.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Dec 4, 2008 10:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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