The Sabathia Deal

Clearly the problem – if consistent contention for the playoffs is a problem – is the constant pressure to win it all every year. That they have the resources to do so covers for a lot of sins.

But saying they need to replace many lineup spots within 5 years is true of virtually every team in the majors – the Rays are likely as bad if not worse off out that far in the position player department.

I strongly agree that Texeira would have been a key acquisition this year – there aren’t any significant 1B candidates available through FA until 2011, and the Yanks don’t have a strong candidate in their system (some argue for Laird at Charleston). Strange that NY hasn’t picked a candidate for that slot in the first 10 rounds for 5 years, despite knowing Giambi’s age and contract term. But many also feel Montero will eventually move to that spot, allowing him to reach the majors sooner. Guess we’ll see. Of course, that reduces the C prospect pool – but NY has a bit more depth there in the system.

That’s not to say the Yanks might not cycle back to Texeira after all – but that would require a willingness to maintain payroll at or above $200MM again next year, assuming they will continue to pursue another external FA starter and bring back Pettitte for ‘09. I’d prefer they sign Sheets on a shorter deal at this point – if they truly believe they have depth in pitching in the system, leaving room for them to rise makes sense, and allows NY to use available budget to feel the near term holes in the OF. With Damon, Matsui, and Nady all FA’s in 2010, the need is clear. But there are or will be candidates there. Here too the Yanks have failed to fill their needs through the draft – picking some OF’s high, but lacking power hitting candidates at any full season level.

I’m less concerned at 2B and 3B than you – the former spot is an area where NY has org depth, and ARod is one of those freak of nature types. SS will require some difficult adjustments – Jeter being the icon he is in NY. But he has the ability to move off that spot if necessary to another option – likely OF – and I hold him in higher regard than most out of NY fans. I think he perhaps takes a disproportionate beating as the embodiment of the Evil Empire. Not that I think his D at SS is especially good. NY does have candidates to fill in there as well, though none are held in very high regard right now and will have to take a step forward in development over the next year or 2.

Though most analysts have poohpoohed it, the Yanks could add the 3 starters mentioned plus Tex and maintain their payroll around it’s current high level. That would most assuredly piss off all Yanks haters again – I too would prefer they had more ready candidates to plug in. But as you pointed out, winning does hurt one’s draft position and ability to pick the top end candidates.

A situation your org may have to contend with moving forward as well. It’s a new game for Tampa as well.

What NY has been reminded of with TB’s success this year is that pitching wins. Injuries and inadequate performance form some emerging prospects there, plus a couple of key injuries on the position side (Posada, Matsui) left Ny coming up a bit short in ‘08, much like Boston in ’06. That they had the best record (with the Mets) of non-playoff teams means they weren’t far away. Better pitching could be enough to get over the hump – and the perception is strong in NY that their failure to advance in the playoffs in the last few years is the lack of top end starting pitching, so that’s the focus.

and I’m not convinced Lowe is the guy. They’re in on all 3 of he, Burnett, and Sheets. Likely signing 1.

Andy’s playing money hardball – but I expect that will be worked out. That leaves Hughes, Kennedy, etc (Aceves showed some ability across the minors and in NY late), to fill in for any injury, limitations on Joba, etc.

I agree the offense could take a hit, but a full season from Posada would be a big improvement from last years overrelianace on Molina and the later add of an ineffective Pudge. A more healthy Matsui should be a positive – the guy can still hit . Swish can hopefully rebound to offset some of Big G’s input – the big shortfall is the loss of Abreu. Could be a wash overall, with possible improvements in D in RF and at 1B. Thus NY has tried to solve the pitching side.

Don’t forget NY saw 44 starts between Ponson and Rasner, only 27 from Wang plus Joba. Add in another 32 starts between Hughes, Kennedy, Giese, Pavano, Aceves, and Igawa. NY won 89 games despite that. Consider that the Rays got a total of 9 starts outside their top 5.