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Around SBN: Yu Darvish Diagnosed With Mariners Fever

Winter Meetings Day Three Open Thread Pt 2

Thus far today:

- Fanball.com's Jason Collette let us in on the Nelson Cruz tidbit tucked away in Jamey Newberg's emails early this morning.

- Toronto is apparently interested in Jason Bartlett. Because that's all J.P. Ricciardi needs is another glove first middle infielder.

- The asking price for Jeremy Hermida is two pitching prospects worth a damn.

- The Rays are apparently still meeting with Bobby Abreu's agent tonight.

- Ken Griffey Jr. would make a better mascot than DH.

Reaction:

Ken_giraffeyjr_medium

via www.zooperstars.com


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Gardenhire backtracks quick as hell
LAS VEGAS — Ron Gardenhire’s public comments Tuesday about Delmon Young resembled last week’s about as much as Fargo, N.D., resembles Las Vegas.

The Twins’ manager, almost sheepish about “the fire I accidentally lit” by suggesting at an appearance in Fargo last week that Young won’t be in his starting lineup next season, insisted at baseball’s winter meetings that “we’re blessed to have four talented outfielders” and that nothing is settled about the Twins’ 2009 outfield.

“I’m backpedaling; can’t you see?” Gardenhire said. “That was me sort of screwing up. … Everyone knows the players are the ones who will decide that. They’re the ones who have to go out and earn (their jobs).”

“A lot of clubs might read that and say, ‘Hey, we can get Delmon Young for nothing.’ And I can tell you right now, that ain’t going to happen,” Gardenhire said. “We gave up a lot for Delmon Young, and we’re not out to give him away. He’s a very talented player with a lot of upside.”

by Erik Hahmann on Dec 10, 2008 2:21 PM EST reply actions  

Funny people

Josh Queens: Could this happen…The mets trade delgado to the rays for either garza or shields then they sign tex for a deal around 7 years 160 million?

 John Kruk: (2:30 PM ET ) Wishful thinking but I think Garza in the post season established himself as a top of the rotation guy and even though Delgado had a great 2nd half he can’t demand a pitcher of Garza’s ability

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 10, 2008 2:31 PM EST reply actions  

Wait.....what?
The Rays have some interest in Nelson Cruz, but aren’t going to give up Edwin Jackson for him, according to the St. Petersburg Times.
Cruz did impress at the end of last season, but he’s a 28-year-old with a career .251/.312/.431 line in 557 major league at-bats. Jackson for Cruz probably wouldn’t be a good idea for Tampa Bay.

If Edwin gets us Cruz, you goddamn do it, Friedman

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2008 2:54 PM EST reply actions  

If Edwin is a 1.5 WAR starter...

And Cruz is just league average hitting and fielding while playing RF, then they’re equal in terms of WAR.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 10, 2008 2:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Don't get rid of the chip quite yet

You can always say no now and come back later if the position doesn’t get filled elsewhere. It’s not like there are tons of teams pining for him.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 10, 2008 3:41 PM EST up reply actions  

It might make sense.

1st, Who is going to pay more for Cruz then the Rays? Go by dummy results-based stats, and he’s worth Hammel at best.

2nd, Would you play him full time over Gross in RF? If not, is trading away a 5th starter really worth a platoon OF in return?

by kericr on Dec 10, 2008 4:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Great point,

I agree with the screaming strawberry.

The Rays lost the World Series to bad umpires, Mother Nature, and the Philadelphia Phillies.

by thebaddancingraysfan on Dec 10, 2008 7:48 PM EST up reply actions  

I would start him full time, mostly, and see how it goes.

If he REALLY struggles, go to the platoon. If he gets hot, let him play every day.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 10, 2008 7:54 PM EST up reply actions  

who? Hammels?

I am not that impressed with his hitting, but okay…

yes, i am joking.

The Rays lost the World Series to bad umpires, Mother Nature, and the Philadelphia Phillies.

by thebaddancingraysfan on Dec 10, 2008 7:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Edwin is too much...so enter.

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans
09: This one is for all the rings.

by SRQman on Dec 10, 2008 3:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Fail? How?

Cruz had a good 30 game stretch in the majors, that hardly qualifies him as a can’t miss trade target. Jackson still has high value, even if the people on this blog refuse to recognize that…

by davidsmarch on Dec 10, 2008 3:46 PM EST reply actions  

Not really

He’s still about LA and young. He’s also cheap.

by rglass44 on Dec 10, 2008 3:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Edwin Jackson's value

Using Marcels projections for next year, Edwin is worth $10 million.

by rglass44 on Dec 10, 2008 4:07 PM EST up reply actions  

The age multiplier loves him.

Projected 4.64? The only time he’s been under 4.85 the past three years was 4.52 in 2006 when he threw 36 innings, otherwise 4.88 and 4.90.

If Edwin gets to 4.7 it’ll be a miracle.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 10, 2008 4:16 PM EST up reply actions  

If Edwin = Oliver Perez

Does that mean we can also trade Edwin for young Jason Bay or Xavier Nady?

by RATW on Dec 10, 2008 5:22 PM EST up reply actions  

High value?

Please explain…. He is a #5 pitcher in this league. His K rate sucks. His BB rate sucks. His LOB% was way better then it has ever been. His BA against dropped by about 30 points while his LD% actually was the highest it’s been since ’05.

by td32 on Dec 10, 2008 3:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Why does Cruz HAVE to be a can't-miss target to be worth acquiring?

Let’s say there’s a 1/3 chance he turns into a 4 WAR player and a 2/3 chance he never does anything productive outside of be the ok-hitting righty-half of a Gross platoon. Still worth giving up Edwin for him.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 10, 2008 5:33 PM EST up reply actions  

But what if there are better options to give up Edwin for?

Or to package Edwin with? That is the issue. Once we trade him we can’t untrade him so we can include him in a deal for someone better. I am just very skeptical of a career minor-leaguer that is 28 and strikes out over a quarter of his ABs. Who was the last one of these to come up and be a 4 WAR player?

by rglass44 on Dec 10, 2008 6:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Jack Cust

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Dec 10, 2008 6:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Good example

I see two flaws:

A. Cust isn’t a 4 WAR player.
B. His defense probably played a huge role in his being in the minors so long. Cruz is reputed to be a plus defender. Wouldn’t he be up if he could hit his weight?

by rglass44 on Dec 10, 2008 6:24 PM EST up reply actions  

3 WAR. Still double of Edwin.

B. He tears up AAA. Cust DHed in the minors. This point is off base.

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Dec 10, 2008 6:29 PM EST up reply actions  

You beat me.

Although Pena didn’t establish himself until age 28.

by RATW on Dec 10, 2008 6:28 PM EST up reply actions  

It's not arbitrary.

That’s his age, that’s his k-rate. Carlos played over 100 big league games as a 24, 25, and 26 year old. Do you want me to say “name a player that is a career minor-leaguer until he’s 24…”

by rglass44 on Dec 10, 2008 6:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Okay, and the WAR total came from Sky, so that's understandable.

Here’s what we know right now:

- Edwin has yet to show he’s capable of turning physical skills into production.
- Edwin is 25, and will soon become a millionaire.
- Edwin is destined for a lesser role on this team, likely decreasing his value.
- Edwin can be replaced by Jeff Niemann or Mitch Talbot with little to no downside.

- Cruz is 28, probably in his prime.
- Has torn up Triple-A multiple times.
- Is cheap
- Is good defensively
- Fills a need.
- Has about a season of major league at-bats.

After the trade, Edwin might become great, Cruz might bust, but with what we know right now, why don’t you make this move?

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 10, 2008 6:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Because we don't know what else is available for Edwin.

I am not against Edwin for Cruz, but I am against taking it just because it’s available. It’s a long offseason, and teams aren’t going to all of a sudden decide they don’t like him.

It all comes back to our old friend oppurtunity cost. The OC of trading Ed for Cruz is any deal that we could have made with Ed.

by rglass44 on Dec 10, 2008 6:39 PM EST up reply actions  

We're not advocating taking it just because it's available.

We’re advocating taking it because it’s a good move. You’re trading risk for risk, and one of those risks has performance to back him up along with a lower cost and a need filling bat/glove.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 10, 2008 6:42 PM EST up reply actions  

one of those risks has performance to back him up

are you talking about Cruz’s .251/.312/.431 major league line?

by rglass44 on Dec 10, 2008 6:44 PM EST up reply actions  

He wouldn't do better than Niemman

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Dec 10, 2008 7:06 PM EST up reply actions  

FYI, Nelson Cruz's MLE from 2008:

.283/.364/.571

There has been work to show that high K players don’t translate quite as well, and I’m not sure if BPro has accounted for that. Still, nice translated line.

And for those putting stock in his MLB numbers, they certainly count, but it’s the equivalent of one MLB season. At a 93 OPS+.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 10, 2008 7:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, sure, if there's something better, go for it.

We definitely disagree on the potential of Cruz. That’s fine. I’m not overly confident in my assessment of him.

But I think we can agree that trading Edwin for an ex-prospect right fielder with an above-average glove is a solid risk? We just need to find the right one, I guess.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 10, 2008 7:04 PM EST up reply actions  

I definitely agree, there.

I don’t necessarily dislike Cruz (because as you say he’s at worst a good platoon partner w/ Gross), but if Jackson/Talbot/Bartlett brings in someone younger and better I’d be pissed.

by rglass44 on Dec 10, 2008 7:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh yeah, but that's then wishful thinking

Don’t pull the trigger now without looking at other possible trade options (Nick Evans plz). But, keep Jon Daniels on speed dial, at least for now.

But, sometimes you do have to take the gamble. The risk isn’t too high, IMO.

And EJax in Arlington is hilarious.

Dude. This.

by Blicks on Dec 10, 2008 7:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Do this and give us Cruz
Texas has contacted Detroit about the availability of outfielder-designated hitter Gary Sheffield.

The Rangers need a middle-of-the-lineup bat to replace Milton Bradley, headed out of town as a free agent. Sheffield carries risks.

by Erik Hahmann on Dec 10, 2008 3:57 PM EST reply actions  

What's the latest on Jeremy Hermida?

You say it’s two pitching prospects worth a damn? Just curious what the story is because I haven’t read anything new today.

by fogelberg on Dec 10, 2008 4:36 PM EST reply actions  

I'm a Cruz fan and the complete opposite of an E-Jax fan

but Cruz is hardly guaranteed to be a good player. Lots of players tear up AAA and the minors, but can’t hack it in the majors. Jackson would at least be a good #5 pitcher in the NL, IMHO.

Cruz is a good defensive RF with a cannon, though, so that’s a bonus.

www.raysbb.com

Yes, we really do have fans.

by killa3312 on Dec 10, 2008 4:40 PM EST reply actions  

Pitching will always have value over hitting

I’m convinced they could bait an NL team into taking Jackson and giving up something pretty nice for him.

www.raysbb.com

Yes, we really do have fans.

by killa3312 on Dec 10, 2008 4:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Why haven't we heard about any teams clamoring for Edwin, then?

And the Marlins want Sonny, not Edwin for Hermida.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 10, 2008 5:34 PM EST up reply actions  

CC just signed for about $23MM per year. Offers to Teixeira already exceed that, supposedly.

Hitting is more likely to sustain value down the road. It’s worth filling a team with highly productive position players and filling in the rotation with underrated pitchers other teams throw away. This isn’t how the Rays are built, but their stockpile of young arms is just historically amazing.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 10, 2008 5:36 PM EST up reply actions  

not sure if anyone posted this yet but...
Brad (Chicago): Will Milton Bradley sign with the Cubs this week?

 Jim Callis: Sounds like there’s a good chance.

Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Dec 10, 2008 4:44 PM EST reply actions  

PLZ NO!

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans
09: This one is for all the rings.

by SRQman on Dec 10, 2008 5:42 PM EST up reply actions  

No one knows anything until it happens

Just like the Cubs are close to “signing Abreu” “signing Ibanez” and of course, Bradley……don’t think they are about to sign all 3

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2008 7:03 PM EST up reply actions  

No, and you deserve a fish slap for saying just jibber-jabber.

Remember how Colome basically gave up on the first game of the season in 2006 vs. the Orioles? Or Where gave up on the mound against the Pittsburg Pirates, in 2005.

The Rays lost the World Series to bad umpires, Mother Nature, and the Philadelphia Phillies.

by thebaddancingraysfan on Dec 10, 2008 7:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Rangers are going after Hermida

He plays RF, who else plays RF? Wait….I almost got it…..yep there it is, Nelson Cruz

Now lets get him for Talbot or something.

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2008 5:46 PM EST reply actions  

Have we offer FLA Helly and Talbot for Hermida?

just tell them that Davis is not going anywhere… and then slowly talk them out of Niemann.

by daveh33 on Dec 10, 2008 7:09 PM EST reply actions  

Helly? Fuck nooooooooooooo

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Dec 10, 2008 7:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Niemann and Talbot if we have to give 2

Hellickson and Davis are off limits and personally, I prefer Hellickson

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2008 7:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, pretty much

I don’t get why everyone thinks Davis and Hellickson should be so off limits anyway. Our entire rotation is locked in with the Rays for at least the next four years, and even at their level there’s still a very good chance that either one won’t pan out to be all that. Getting a good outfielder for the next three years would seem to be a much higher priority than having another good starter (at best), someone who can take a rotation spot in a few years but doesn’t do much until then (likely) or completely flames out (worst case).

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 10, 2008 7:31 PM EST up reply actions  

I wouldn't cry if they got dealt

They can get more than Hermida is all. This would be a horrible trade

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2008 7:33 PM EST up reply actions  

not horrible

we are dealing out of strength. we truly don’t/won’t need 2 of those arms as bad as we need a solid defensive RFer with a bat. and a cheap one at that

by daveh33 on Dec 10, 2008 7:36 PM EST up reply actions  

they shouldn't be.

to be able to nab a full-time RF with plus plus upside?? I’ll give 2 arms for.

by daveh33 on Dec 10, 2008 7:33 PM EST up reply actions  

For fun, nothing conclusive:

2003 Top 20 from that link:
1. Mark Teixeira, 3b, Rangers
2. Rocco Baldelli, of, Devil Rays
3. Jose Reyes, ss, Mets
4. Joe Mauer, c, Twins
5. Jesse Foppert, rhp, Giants
6. Jose Contreras, rhp, Yankees
7. Brandon Phillips, 2b/ss, Indians
8. Hideki Matsui, of, Yankees
9. Gavin Floyd, rhp, Phillies
10. Francisco Rodriguez, rhp, Angels
11. Scott Kazmir, lhp, Mets
12. Miguel Cabrera, 3b, Marlins
13. Casey Kotchman, 1b, Angels
14. Justin Morneau, 1b, Twins
15. Jason Stokes, 1b, Marlins
16. Victor Martinez, c, Indians
17. Michael Cuddyer, of, Twins
18. Adam Wainwright, rhp, Braves
19. Hanley Ramirez, ss, Red Sox
20. Jeremy Bonderman, rhp, Tigers

Five absolute stars (Tex, Reyes, Mauer, Miguel, HanRam) at 5 WAR
Three really good players (Kazmir, Morneau, VMartinez) at 4 WAR
Seven above-average players (Phillips, Matsui, GFloyd, Kotchman, Wainright, KRod, Cuddyer) at 3 WAR
Two league-average players (Bonderman, Contreras) at 2 WAR
Three roster filler and flops (Floppert, Baldelli, Stokes) at 0 WAR

I actually think 3 flops is low, but the point is that while a bunch of top prospects flop, it’s nowhere near half or even one third. And the ceiling of those guys is huge. A weighted average of the top 20 prospects from 2003 provides 3.1 WAR. Or $14MM of production in today’s market. Per year.

Anyone want to do the entire 100? We could compare the relative value of each tier of 20 prospects…

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 10, 2008 7:33 PM EST up reply actions  

There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect

Two meanings:

  1. Young pitchers get hurt way to much to count on them developing into studs, like you can hitters.
  2. Pitchers don’t develop along nice career trajectories like many hitters do. A pitcher with great stuff should be thrown right into the majors. A pitcher who needs work might take a month or five years. Why? probably because pitching is much less reactive than hitting. You’re in control. Hitters have to learn how to react to better and better pitches and sequences of pitches.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 10, 2008 7:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Frankly, that was a good year for BA and a good prospect year generally

Also, I doubt that either Hellickson or Davis ends up in BA’s top 20.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 10, 2008 7:39 PM EST up reply actions  

I forgot the 3 that Sky mentioned in the top 20.

It’s 58%

This isn’t counting marginal MLB players. Just the guys who are pretty much complete flops/out of BB.

Dude. This.

by Blicks on Dec 10, 2008 7:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Just for the sake of argument, I present 1998

I think this one speaks for itself. I’m just saying, small sample size.

1. Ben Grieve, of, Athletics
2. Paul Konerko, 1b/3b, Dodgers
3. Adrian Beltre, 3b, Dodgers
4. Kerry Wood, rhp, Cubs
5. Aramis Ramirez, 3b, Pirates
6. Matt White, rhp, Devil Rays
7. Kris Benson, rhp, Pirates
8. Travis Lee, 1b, Diamondbacks
9. Carl Pavano, rhp, Expos
10. Miguel Tejada, ss, Athletics
11. Todd Helton, 1b, Rockies
12. Mark Kotsay, of, Marlins
13. Chad Hermansen, 2b, Pirates
14. Brad Fullmer, 1b, Expos
15. Juan Encarnacion, of, Tigers
16. Matt Clement, rhp, Padres
17. Ruben Mateo, of, Rangers
18. Rick Ankiel, lhp, Cardinals
19. Richard Hidalgo, of, Astros
20. Sean Casey, 1b, Indians

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 10, 2008 7:42 PM EST up reply actions  

all im saying is this

They told us to pick 2 pitchers…..why not Talbot and Niemann and then if we decide to deal one of our top arms, we trade them for another young great player. Relief ace or hitter.

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2008 7:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah...

Not a good year.

Anyone read Victor Wang’s study in the THT Annual yet? Does he do something similar to what we’re doing, but on a larger scale?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 10, 2008 7:45 PM EST up reply actions  

that list is riddled with injuries

Almost all of them showed they were gonna be stars. Wood would of been one of the best pitchers in baseball if he didn’t get hurt and Benson was a star just for a small example.

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2008 7:46 PM EST up reply actions  

So looking who just never did anything

Grieve(after ROTY anyway), Matt White, Travis Lee, Chad Hermanson and Richard Hildago are the only guys who were a flat out bust.

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2008 7:55 PM EST up reply actions  

If all we get out of Hellickson or Davis is that level of production

They’d still be at the back of our bullpen. That can’t be the measure of success here.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 10, 2008 7:57 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't know how to translate to WAR, but I'd say

Assuming they would stay as starters (which we already know probably isn’t the case for one of them), based on my own personal opinions, the scenarios:

Percentile Helly Davis
90% > Hudson Schmidt
50% > Gaudin Clement
10% > Bust Bust

IMO, if either one reaches their most likely outcome, then they’re either at the back of the rotation (when you consider who’s ahead of them) or in the bullpen.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 10, 2008 8:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Okay, thanks.

I don’t have the WARs off hand either, but that’s a better outline than I previously had.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 10, 2008 8:11 PM EST up reply actions  

I disagree.

Hidalgo had 400 ABs with a career 110 OPS+. That’s at least average, assuming Hidalgo was at least an average-fielding corner outfielder (which I think he was, especially since he played CF a bunch.)

Lee had a couple seasons as an average hitter. With a good glove, he was probably 1.5 WAR those years. That’s 4th starter territory or a 3.75 bulllpen ERA.

Hermanson, from 1997 to 2001 averaged about 190 IP with a 110 ERA+. That’s 2/3 starter territory.

Listen, I’m all up for trading pitching prospects for real MLB-ready position-player talent. But not only should two of the guys mentioned fetch more than Hermida based on smart analysis, they should fetch more than him given the track record of how MLB execs value guys like them (maybe not Talbot).

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 10, 2008 8:06 PM EST up reply actions  

You need to take into account the years that they suck too

Not just when they were good. They’re still dead weight on the roster if they stink.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 10, 2008 8:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, true.

You can leverage their careers to a certain extent, too. Like stop playing them when they start sucking. Or don’t sign them to FA contracts after their arb years are up.

Another thing we should consider is marking a cutoff after the first six years of MLB production, because that’s all that the drafting team gets without paying free agent rates (without Longo-like extensions).

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 10, 2008 8:14 PM EST up reply actions  

"Like stop playing them when they start sucking."

The next manager/GM team who effectively figures that one out as they start sucking and not half a season into their suckage will be the first, to my knowledge.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 10, 2008 8:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh, and

A starter with a 110 ERA+ WOULD be the fifth starter or in the bullpen when you already have Shields, Kazmir, Garza, Price in the rotation.

Davis and Hellickson are good prospects, but they have more relative value elsewhere. You can’t pretend like other teams don’t know that and will give full value for them.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 10, 2008 8:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Doesn't matter what you label a 110+ ERA as, it's just as productive.

The point about wasting talent in the bullpen or in the minors is fair, though.

And I agree the Rays should definitely move pitching for hitting. But they shouldn’t sell all that low. If another team is looking for a pitching prospect, they are going to weight all possibilities. Just because they knew the Rays want to move a prospect more than, say, the Reds, doesn’t mean they’ll take a worse deal from the Reds.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 10, 2008 8:16 PM EST up reply actions  

even better

So we are down to Grieve after his rookie year and White. Seems like a good list to me, injuries really hurt a lot of these guys.

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2008 7:58 PM EST up reply actions  

You can't discount injuries

Getting injured is a big part of why someone becomes a bust. If you ignore the possibility of injury of course you’ll overrate prospects. With someone in their prime, you already know if they’re injury prone; you don’t know that about prospects, and young pitchers are profoundly more likely to get injured than anyone else (other than maybe young catchers).

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 10, 2008 8:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes. I agree.

That year was especially bad for injuries, though, at least the top 20.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 10, 2008 8:07 PM EST up reply actions  

you are correct but

As far as injuries go, Wood wound up being very good, just became a closer. Ankiel took his valium and became a OF with good power and a GREAT arm.

Then you got Konerko, Ramirez, Tejada, Helton, and Beltre have all had the type of careers that would like me on a team that I am building.

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2008 8:11 PM EST up reply actions  

And all of them are higher rated than Hellickson and Davis

If you look at the 20 – 40 range of every year, which is closer to where they will rank, you’ll see that both the success rate and the return are both much lower. Further narrow that down to guys who are at the upper levels of the minors (so you’re eliminating the wunderkinds who are ranked very high straight out of being drafted because everyone’s known they’re studs for years), and they get even worse.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 10, 2008 8:13 PM EST up reply actions  

I admit that I am not all that confident about Davis

but he can easily surprise me.

Hellickson looks like a slightly better Shields to me. I am in love with pitchers who have great control and limit the HR’s.

If we can get a great hitter or a relief ace or better known as a “closer” for Davis, I will take it.

However, by 2010, I want Kazmir – Garza – Price – Shields – Hellickson

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2008 8:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Shields wasn't a great prospect though

Even after he had a monster year in Montgomery, BA didn’t rate him in our organizational top 10. Most good pitching prospects should look better than Shields. Some guys who aren’t prospects pan out well too, y’know?

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 10, 2008 8:21 PM EST up reply actions  

How high they were rated doesnt matter much to me

I simply go by seeing games started by Hellickson and him looking very good and the type of pitcher we want. Control and low homers, AKA, not Jackson

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2008 8:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Wrong Hermanson.

That was Dustin Hermanson.

Dude. This.

by Blicks on Dec 10, 2008 8:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Correct.

Chad was the one the Cubs dealt Darren Lewis for.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 10, 2008 8:22 PM EST up reply actions  

You are

It was Chad Hermannson (not even spelled the same), who was a complete bust for the Cubs.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 10, 2008 8:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Topkin update.
Just got done with the annual managers’ lunch, and Joe Maddon sounded very intrigued by the possibilities of adding to the offense, but provided no more specifics. "There’s some very interesting stuff out there, and it’s real,’’ he said.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 10, 2008 7:27 PM EST reply actions  

Quotes from Maddon actually mean something to me

Unlike Rosenthal or Olney saying things like Griffey would give anything to be a Ray.

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2008 7:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Honestly, Griffey would be just about thrilled to sign with any team that's a contender.

Also, it’s nice for once to hear top-flight players WANTING to play for the Rays. Griffey Jr., while no longer top flight in skill, is still most certainly top flight in name. I want to keep that in perspective.

by kericr on Dec 10, 2008 7:33 PM EST up reply actions  

King of intrigue!

I won’t be able sleep tonight unless I know what is real! Come on Maddon!

by floridaroar on Dec 10, 2008 7:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Here's a debate, Hermida vs. Ludwick

Hermida’s five years younger (25 v 30)
Both entering first year of arb
Ludwick has a career 122 OPS+, Hermida 103
Ludwick’s 2007 and 2008 were 110 and 150, Hermida 125 and 91

It seems Ludwick has a significant edge in recent production, while Hermida has a significant edge in the age department.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 10, 2008 8:20 PM EST reply actions  

Ludwich is a buy high player who will get a big contract soon

However, Hermida isn’t even trusted by his team apperently. He will be cheaper in prospects and money.

Um, yeah, I choose Hermida.

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2008 8:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Putz headed to Mets

3 team trade with Indians

Aaron Heilman, Endy Chavez, Mike Carp, and Franklin Gutierrez involved with Putz

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2008 9:03 PM EST reply actions  

actually

dont be too shocked but its BS….. from MLBtr, they are working on a trade but havent made one

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2008 9:13 PM EST up reply actions  

They immediately go

from having the worst outfield defense in baseball to the best outfield defense in baseball. It’s not like they needed Putz right now anyway. Gutierrez is the big prize, IMO, and they got a bunch of B- level prospects as well.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 11, 2008 1:59 AM EST up reply actions  

It didn't make sense until the other players were announced.

With just Heilman, Carp, Chavez, and Gutierrez being around, and some of those guys going to the Tribe, it looked fishy.

Dude. This.

by Blicks on Dec 11, 2008 2:13 AM EST up reply actions  

And another meeting

Rays VP Andrew Friedman said he met with free agent Bobby Abreu’s representatives on Wednesday.
The Rays are also known to have met with Milton Bradley and Jason Giambi as they seek a right fielder or designated hitter. However, they’re also working on trades that might close those holes. “We made some progress on a couple different trade fronts today,” Friedman said. “There’s certainly a scenario in which something gets done before I get on a plane tomorrow.” Jeremy Hermida, Rick Ankiel and Nelson Cruz are some of the players they’ve been rumored to have interest in.

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2008 9:12 PM EST reply actions  

done before he gets on a plane tomorrow

I would need new pants if that is true. As long as it isn’t Griffey or Anderson anyway.

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2008 9:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Y'ALL SO STUPID

The Detroit Tigers are set to acquire right-hander Edwin Jackson from the Tampa Bay Rays for outfielder Matt Joyce, according to a major-league source. — Ed Price

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Dec 10, 2008 9:39 PM EST reply actions  

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