Matt Joyce is an Upgrade
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 11, 2008 12:36 AM EST
65 comments
Gabe Gross v. Matt Joyce.
I like them both, but there's a question about whether Joyce is an immediate upgrade. Short answer: yes.
(Ed: I've switched to using the WRAA number provided by FanGraphs, it's the same as what I've been doing, only using FanGraph's official league average wOBA, rather than the one StatCorner or otherwise uses. Hence why some of the numbers are going to be a bit smaller than previously by 2-3 runs.)
Marcels is pretty worthless for Joyce, it has him as worth 6 runs offensively in just about 340 plate appearances. I tweaked that number down, changing his run value per 600 to 3. Chone has Joyce as a +7 runs defender. That combines for a 2.7 WAR corner outfielder. Gross is projected at 1.4 through 600 PAs and 3 runs in the field. That's 1.9 WAR total.
Well, what if Joyce's bat or glove aren't as good as projected? Well, that's where your judgment call comes into play. UZR seems to like both, PMR loved Joyce, and Justin's stats like both as well. That suggests there's something to the idea of Joyce being a better fielder. How much? Hopefully at least three runs.
That doesn't seem like a lot, but none of the other options were much bigger upgrades:
| FLD | BAT | WAR | |
| Gross | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.9 |
| Joyce | 0.7 | 0.3 | 2.5 |
| Ankiel | 0.1 | 1.6 | 3.2 |
| Hermida | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.1 |
:Not perfect estimates for Joyce, so adjust as you please with this formula:
1.5 + (FLD in wins form) + (BAT in wins form) = WAR
For instance: (1.5+0.7+0.3) = 2.5
---
Joyce is 24 and seems to be a pretty decent player all ready. Between the upgrade over Gross/Hinske/Gomes in right field and the upgrade over Edwin in the rotation, the Rays improved tonight. Perhaps if only by two wins, but those two wins can mean a lot, just look at last year's standings.
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So, what do you think happens to Gross after this?
Traded?
Nontendered? (hopefully not)
Dude. This.
by Blicks on Dec 11, 2008 12:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Maybe traded.
There’s no reason to non-tender him.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 11, 2008 12:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Let's hope Joyce's fielding is actually as good as his half season stats indicate
If yes, then I like this deal a lot more.
Who knows what happens to Gross, but if we sign a DH, I really hope we’re not carrying both Gross and Joyce for too long. Joyce makes Gross completely redundant, and with two LH in the corner OF spots, the backup should really be right handed. I guess in the worst case scenario, Zobrist platoons occasionally.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Dec 11, 2008 12:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I feel like the Grinch lately
Not a fan of Ruggiano either. All of the hallmarks of a AAAA hitter.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Dec 11, 2008 12:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
At least you provide good counterpoints.
That’s an upgrade over some.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 11, 2008 12:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If you wanna feel better
The money we will save from Jackson and Gross along with what we were willing to spend, Bradley/Giambi is much more realistic
by joeybw on Dec 11, 2008 12:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I guess here's the question
Are we better off trading for Joyce or trading for Cruz? Supposedly, the Rays turned down an Edwin for Cruz deal, IIRC. While Joyce is younger, Cruz seems to fit the team’s needs a lot better. They’re both the same price, so that isn’t an issue. We get someone to play better defense in the lefty side of a platoon, but we still have no righty side of that platoon. Presuming they have Joyce play full time, then his batting projections probably go down because he’s probably below replacement level against lefties.
I don’t have a mathematical answer, and honestly I don’t have the time or patience to try and figure it out. I just have a gut feeling that this was the worse of the two possible moves in terms of the team winning the next few years.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Dec 11, 2008 1:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i think that he will be better off with joyce
everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds
by RaysOfHope on Dec 11, 2008 1:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What I don't get about Cruz is that
people shit on Ludwick for coming out of nowhere to have a balling year at an advanced age, yet Cruz is not a fluke?
Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.
~George Costanza~
by Sandy Kazmir on Dec 11, 2008 3:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
moreso when you look at what held Ludwick back was injuries. He's always had legit power
Cruz, to my understanding just never made it to the bigs or when he did he failed. I dont think injuries are a part of his past.
Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Dec 11, 2008 6:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Cruz has the chance to be the next Ludwick.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 11, 2008 9:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I just don't see it
Especially playing in that park.
Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.
~George Costanza~
by Sandy Kazmir on Dec 11, 2008 11:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Your numbers are not too kind to Gross
I guess that happens when you don’t play the first 8 innings
by joeybw on Dec 11, 2008 12:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
So we got a player that's better then Hermida
at a cheaper cost to us? Nice :D
by chancedj on Dec 11, 2008 1:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'd be very surprised
If Joyce is better than Hermida over the next three years.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Dec 11, 2008 1:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
BTW
When the hell did I turn into Sternfan?
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Dec 11, 2008 1:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You're about 4 vietnam war stories, a racist remark, and a permaban away from landing within that company.
by kericr on Dec 11, 2008 9:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I totally see Brickhaus becoming sternfan.
Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans
09: This one is for all the rings.
by SRQman on Dec 11, 2008 10:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well he already hasn't gotten laid in that long
Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.
~George Costanza~
by Sandy Kazmir on Dec 11, 2008 11:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That assumes Joyce's glove is every bit as good as it showed last year.
Possible, but I’m tentative on the sample size. Same with the bat.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 11, 2008 1:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And whether Hermida improves/breaks out
which is also pretty likely
Dude. This.
by Blicks on Dec 11, 2008 1:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Plus, it's not like it was Edwin for Hermida or Joyce.
It was Edwin for Joyce, and two pitching prospects for Hermida. At least for yesterday that was the price.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 11, 2008 1:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, that also must be taken into consideration.
Dude. This.
by Blicks on Dec 11, 2008 2:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And whether Joyce can continue to hit lefties as well as he did in the majors last year
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Dec 11, 2008 1:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's the biggest concern.
Dude. This.
by Blicks on Dec 11, 2008 2:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Can we get a mini one?
I want an Andy Warhol effect or something.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Dec 11, 2008 1:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hermidageddon is gonna happen
damnit. i wish it was for us…
oh well.
i’ll still be pleased if we get Bradley. or Giambi i guess, but stache is required.
by daveh33 on Dec 11, 2008 1:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'd rather get the mullet than the stache
as far as Giambi’s bad fashion statements are concerned.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Dec 11, 2008 2:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How about both.
And, bad fashion is fun.
Dude. This.
by Blicks on Dec 11, 2008 2:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
on the other hand... i was kind of expecting something like this
when i was thinking of brad nelson.
by daveh33 on Dec 11, 2008 2:05 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
So...how long till the Tigers hand EJax an extension
ala Nate Robertson/Dontrelle Willis.
Dude. This.
by Blicks on Dec 11, 2008 2:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
platoon partner
So assuming Maddon platoons Joyce with a lefty masher, who is the best option? Internal options include Ruggiano, Gomes, and Perez. And of course there is Baldelli. Each one however, has some issues. Ruggiano has yet to make an impact in the majors and doesnt necessarily hit LHP to a torid clip. Gomes is a defensive liability and struggled badly last year against every type of pitcher. Perez is the best option, but is it too early to limit him to a platoon/4th outfielder role when he could be in Durham continuing to develope. And Baldelli, well he’d have to be signed first and who knows how many games he could actually play in the outfield.
by BossmanJunior333 on Dec 11, 2008 3:16 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Nando is my dog in this fight
Anecdotally, Joyce seems very streaky. Nando can face lefties and work on his lefty swing in the cage while giving us a guy that can legitimately play all 3 OF positions. Back to the streaky, Mad Dog should have no qualms about sitting the young man for a few games and try to roll with the hot hand. I wouldn’t rule anything out as unconventional is the new black.
Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.
~George Costanza~
by Sandy Kazmir on Dec 11, 2008 3:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So it seems safe to say
we have a right fielder that should produce a line close to .270/340/480 with 22-25 jacks and gold glove caliber defense? Any word on how good his arm is?
by BossmanJunior333 on Dec 11, 2008 3:47 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
If we couldn't have Joyce I'm glad he fell your way.
He’s a nice player.
by acblue on Dec 11, 2008 4:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Neyer likes it:
• Matt Joyce for Edwin Jackson? Really? Seems like most of the guys who write about the Tigers — including here, here and here — aren’t real thrilled. Hard to blame them. Apparently Jim Leyland hasn’t been a big fan of Joyce, but is that a problem with the player? Or the manager? Because Matt Joyce will still be drawing a tidy paycheck for playing baseball long after Leyland and Jackson have retired.
by rglass44 on Dec 11, 2008 8:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Late to the party
But I’m terribly excited about this. At this point, any combination of our top 5 OFs are defensively airtight. How often can that be said?
by PlayOnWords on Dec 11, 2008 8:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
lol
Friedman insisted the Rays were not looking to trade a starter, but it became “abundantly clear” they would have to in order to make a deal. “Edwin Jackson was a big part of our turnaround,” he said. “It wasn’t something we were out necessarily seeking to do. But you have to give up talent to get talent.”
by rglass44 on Dec 11, 2008 8:53 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
SPT Article
<a href=“Friedman insisted the Rays were not looking to trade a starter, but it became "abundantly clear” they would have to in order to make a deal. “Edwin Jackson was a big part of our turnaround,” he said. “It wasn’t something we were out necessarily seeking to do. But you have to give up talent to get talent.”" >link
by rglass44 on Dec 11, 2008 8:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How big was his grin while saying that?
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 11, 2008 9:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah what a bullshitter
Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.
~George Costanza~
by Sandy Kazmir on Dec 11, 2008 12:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
KLaw speaks
The Tigers get a potential upside play in Edwin Jackson, albeit one who’s shown a lot of downside in his career, while the Rays get a partial solution to their right-field hole in Matt Joyce.
Jackson has an electric arm and is able to hold his velocity for 100 pitches, touching 97 or 98 late in the game and sitting in the mid-90s. His hard slider has good tilt with a break that starts early and deepens as the ball travels; he’ll also flash a below-average breaking ball.
His arm is quick, but there’s some effort in the delivery. It’s top-of-the-rotation stuff, but Jackson simply does not command either the fastball or the slider, and hitters make far too much contact given the quality of his two main pitches. After two mediocre-to-bad years as a starter, Jackson is probably due for a shot in the bullpen, where Detroit is deficient and manager Jim Leyland has had a lot of success with pitchers who’ve failed elsewhere.
Joyce profiles as at least a part-time outfielder who needs a caddy against left-handed pitchers, but who hits right-handed pitchers very well and could be part of a very productive and cheap corner-outfield platoon.
Joyce’s best attribute as a hitter is his sneaky raw power, as he’s not a big guy but has above-average pull power and could hit 20-plus homers given enough playing time. He takes a big cut and will swing and miss his fair share, leading to inordinate hand-wringing over his strikeouts, but works the count enough to post an acceptable on-base percentage from the left side.
Joyce is not futile against left-handers, but he’s at enough of a disadvantage that a right-handed platoon mate is probably called for. He should be part of a two-headed right-field monster for the Rays, who have shown an ability to find productive, yet cost-effective solutions when they don’t have the cash available to play in the free-agent market.
by Erik Hahmann on Dec 11, 2008 8:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Let's not lose sight of the suggestion
that Joyce may start the season in the minors. At least one report indicated that possibility, noting that the Rays may see him more as a future outfielder than one ready for early 2009.
I mention it because in at least one comment from Neyer’s links to the Tiger blogs someone mentioned that Joyce may need more seasoning and may have been rushed to the majors a bit. The Rays tend to be very cautious about promotions and may want him to start the year in Durham to work on specific skills.
by bobr on Dec 11, 2008 9:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Well
He tore up winter ball if that counts for anything.
by BossmanJunior333 on Dec 11, 2008 9:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It doesn't
Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.
~George Costanza~
by Sandy Kazmir on Dec 11, 2008 12:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If they truly feel he needs more time thats fine with me.
His numbers at the major league level sugges to me that he is at least ready to play everyday against righties, but I don’t think it wouldn’t be the end of the world if he started at Durham while Gross keeps his seat warm for a little bit.
by Tommy Rancel on Dec 11, 2008 9:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think it gives the Rays flexibility,
always an important consideration. It means that they do not have to non-tender Gross or make a hasty deal if there is a roster crunch. I don’t mean that they will intentionally keep Joyce down if they think he is ready, just that there is no rush and allows them time to find the best alternatives rather than be forced into something by roster issues.
by bobr on Dec 11, 2008 10:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would like to see him get ABs against AAA LHP, though.
Why force him into becoming a platoon player if it is still possible that he could be an everyday guy?
The one issue is the media reaction to him starting in AAA, but I think the FO has bought enough good will to not have any worries in that department.
by rglass44 on Dec 11, 2008 10:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This screams Rays Philosophy
Joyce has been considered the top defensive outfield prospect in the Tiger system and has long been projected as their long-term right field solution by Baseball America. He has gobs of power potential but may have plateaued with his current manager. You think of the gambles our front office took with other once highly touted prospects that seemed to have plateaued like Edwin, Navarro, Joel Guzman, and JP Howell. Regardless of the actual players, its nice to see a front office that is relatively consistent in their approach. The more I look at this deal, the more I’m surprised we didn’t see this coming because of the situation Joyce was in. The Rays organization knows this guy should be better and want to take a whack at him and only had to surrender a 6th starter. There’s a high reward if this works out, and the risks of it not working out seem minimal.
by JWallace on Dec 11, 2008 9:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Does Joyce compare to Jason Werth?
In previous posts, a comparison was made between Matt Joyce and Philadelphia’s Jason Werth, so I thought I’d try to take a look at some numbers to see if that held up. Joyce’s first season was comparable to Werth’s first half-season in 2004:
Stats:
TEAM G AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP OPS
Det 92 242 61 16 3 12 33 31 65 .252 .339 .831
LA 89 290 76 11 3 16 47 30 85 .262 .338 .824
At every level Joyce maintained the ratio of half of his hits for XB. Hopefully with time and experience he can improve his average into the .270-.280 range, has shown the ability to be a 25 HR hitter, and should have an OBP of over .350. If his defense is above-average in RF, then the Rays have found the perfect fit in RF. Worst case scenario, if he cannot continue to improve against lefties, then Joyce and Perez become a very solid RF platoon, however based upon his minor league numbers, he has shown some ability in this category. Best of all, the Rays maintain all of their assets, including Niemann and Brignac, and still have the ability for a mid-season upgrade.
by raysfaninminnesota on Dec 11, 2008 10:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
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