Matt Joyce and Platoons
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 11, 2008 9:12 PM EST
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PrintEdwin Jackson must have been Socrates in one of his past lives, because the man loves bringing debate. The ones we were used to, and now the Matt Joyce rounds. Whatever Edwin touches turns into a 100 comment subthread about this or that. The most prevalent Joyce debate has been over his platoon splits, and whether he should be platooned.
Before you read on, reflect on Joyce's minor league career .721 OPS against lefties and seven runs above average in the corner outfielder and decide whether you think Joyce should require a dance partner.
I'll wait.
Okay, Tommy and myself came up with a list of left-handed hitting corner outfielders, their OPS against southpaws, and the amount of fielding runs they're projected at. Here are the 15 total:
| Abreu |
| Ankiel |
| Crawford |
| Damon |
| Dunn |
| Ethier |
| Giles |
| Hamilton |
| Hawpe |
| Hermida |
| Ibanez |
| J.D. Drew |
| Joyce |
| Markakis |
| Matsui |
Do any of those players sound like halves of platoons? No? Well here's that same list, only sorted by fielding runs:
| Player | FLD Runs |
| Crawford | 9 |
| Giles | 8 |
| Joyce | 7 |
| Damon | 6 |
| Hamilton | 3 |
| Ankiel | 1 |
| Markakis | 1 |
| Ethier | 0 |
| Hermida | 0 |
| J.D. Drew | 0 |
| Matsui | -9 |
| Abreu | -11 |
| Dunn | -13 |
| Ibanez | -13 |
| Hawpe | -15 |
Yes, the Rays have two of the top corner outfielders in the league now. Be proud! Note the drop-off following Damon and keep in mind these are projections for corner outfielders, Josh Hamilton isn't nearly +3 in center. Okay, now we're going to sort that same list by career OPS v. LHP desc, Joyce's minor league total will be used, it's more reflective of his true talent level than 200-something major league at-bats.
| Player | LHOPS |
| Dunn | 0.833 |
| Matsui | 0.803 |
| J.D. Drew | 0.797 |
| Markakis | 0.787 |
| Ankiel | 0.786 |
| Giles | 0.780 |
| Abreu | 0.776 |
| Damon | 0.747 |
| Hamilton | 0.745 |
| Hawpe | 0.739 |
| Ethier | 0.736 |
| Ibanez | 0.733 |
| Hermida | 0.730 |
| Joyce | 0.721 |
| Crawford | 0.695 |
You wouldn't platoon Carl Crawford and take his glove out of the field, would you? So why do you want to platoon Matt Joyce? Yes, the offensive shortcomings against southpaws will irritate, but Matt Joyce's glove is going to be valuable no matter who the other team has pitching. Besides, he's 24-years-old and should improve on those splits.
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David Price is basically a more talented version of Oliver Perez, with less head problems and faster velo
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
and more playoff appearances
everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds
who needs k-rod for 37 million when you can have d-rod for 50k?
Besides, Gross: .519 v. LHP, .786 v. RHP.
Nowhere near the same struggles.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 11, 2008 9:26 PM EST up reply actions
I hope we at least try not platooning him
Nando is the PERFECT 4th OF. Great defense, best PR we could hope for. Love it.
That being said, sign Bradley now please. Thanks.
hitting vs. lefties
I just don’t want a pinch hitter to lift the RF in games that we are behind or having to go to defensive replacements in close games we are ahead because of a perceived deficiency. I want this RF spot to be sewed up and be a stand alone, full-fledged member of the firm.
Its up to Maddon to trust Joyce, and I hope is gets everyday status, and if he struggles, so be it. I am sure he will be hitting 7th or 8th in the order, so fine by me. But I don’t want him being pulled.
Joe
with Beej, Longo, and Barty rocking it from the right-side
we still need a RH DH. I think this would narrow our list to Burrell or Bradley in that order.
Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.
~George Costanza~
Here is my problem
While I get that his defense is very valuable regardless of what pitcher is on the mound, I still dont see how having him face lefthanders is better than having Perez face lefthanders. Isnt Perez just as good defensively as Joyce and has much better splits against LHP. Wouldnt Perez v. LHP be greater than Joyce v. LHP, with OPS and Defense taken into consideration?
by BossmanJunior333 on Dec 11, 2008 10:24 PM EST reply actions
I'm not sure Perez will be on the team opening day.
If he is I suppose it makes sense.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 11, 2008 10:49 PM EST up reply actions
Not really
He’s a better defensive LF, and CC is worse against LHP than Joyce.
PLATOON CC!!!!!!!!!!!!!
rj what type of numbers do you expect from joyce next year?
me i think .280BA with a .370 OBP with 25 HRs and about 80 RBIS too much for him?
everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds
who needs k-rod for 37 million when you can have d-rod for 50k?
I'm not RJ
But I think that’s way too high. I’d guess more like .260/.340/.450 with 15-20 bombs. He had a good year last year, and if it was all real improvement then his stats will probably be higher than that, but if you look at the rest of his career as well (along with his tools and level of development), that’s more along the lines of what I’d expect.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
If he puts up a .790 OPS
Let’s say he boosts his OPS against lefties to .740 (.320/.420, within reason) that means he would be hitting righties to the tune of roughly .810 (.350/.460?), assuming there are about 4 righties for every lefty. That seems reasonable and for a guy that would be in our 6/7/8 slot it gives us quite a tough lineup. Assuming your slash line is accurate, if he were to hit lefties at say, .715 he would have to OPS against righties something like .825. This was all in my head, but does it seem possible as far as lefty/righty splits?
Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.
~George Costanza~
by Sandy Kazmir on Dec 12, 2008 10:33 AM EST up reply actions
I agree with Brickhaus a little bit
A lot depends on playing time, when it comes to home runs and rbi. Regardless, I could see a .270/.350/.480 line. Given 500 at bats, he should hit over 20 HR and drive in 70+ RBI.
by BossmanJunior333 on Dec 12, 2008 3:57 AM EST up reply actions
too much money for a platoon with cc and no way he would be happy about that
i think cc is in for a big year next year or at least i am hopeing for 1 lol
everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds
who needs k-rod for 37 million when you can have d-rod for 50k?
Im really sick
of all the CC hating. All this talk of platooning, batting him 9th, etc. Tell me this, of you that have suggested such things, would you have ever platooned CC before 08? The CC that averaged .300+ BA and 50+ SB for many seasons? I seriously doubt it. CC had a bad year, get over it. One thing you always get from CC regardless is amazing defense and speed. Im looking for another solid year from CC, more along the 07 range.
by BossmanJunior333 on Dec 12, 2008 4:01 AM EST up reply actions
Sarcasm, heard of it?
No, I wouldn’t platoon CC. The point is no one is calling him a platoon player even though his platoon splits are worse than Joyce’s.
Yes I have. Its a type of cake, right?
haha yeah I know no one actually wants to platoon him, but I have seen a bunch of serious line up suggestions that have him batting 8th or 9th, and I just dont get it. Its like people forgot about his career before 2008. And its not like he has always been helpless against LHP, in fact he hit .318 v. LHP in 07, higher than his splits v. RHP.
by BossmanJunior333 on Dec 12, 2008 9:36 AM EST up reply actions
I like him in the 9th hole
I also like him batting 5th. I just would rather get better hitters more ABs. Assuming we sign a good DH, CC will be tied with Wily Aybar for 6th highest career wOBA (this excludes Joyce who is also higher). If Maddon is set on having Aki rather than BJ lead-off then I see no reason to bat CC second. My ideal lineup would be Upton, CC, Longo, Pena, DH, Joyce (unless DH is a lefty), Aki, Navi, and Bartlett.
One thing you're failing to mention
The one freak year in AA when he didn’t have a L/R split raises his minor league OPS vs lefties quite a bit. Take out the fluke season, and his minor league OPS against lefties is closer to .650. Project that to an MLE, and he should be just as crappy against lefties as Gross. He did much better than expected against lefties last year in a tiny sample size, but they also attempted to strictly platoon him. In four professional seasons, he’s hit lefties relatively well in one of them.
Also, every single hitter on that list is a better hitter than Matt Joyce.
I realize it’s your job to write articles and provoke debate, but I think you’re just flat wrong on this one.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Platoon splits
The issue with platoon splits is this: they are unreliable. How many ABs are we talking about? You want to not include some of them? Why would we seek to make the sample smaller?
Here are his ABs against LHP for each year:
2005: 63
2006: 104
2007: 143
2008: 46
That’s 356 ABs against LHP. That is a tiny sample. You want to take out nearly a third of it to prove your point. So, these splits are but a sample of what he should actually do. I don’t feel like doing the math, but assuming random variation his platoon splits could have him as a lot better or a lot worse than his career minor-league OPS is currently.
"Also, every single hitter on that list is a better hitter than Matt Joyce."
Okay, take out Hermida’s fluke minor league season and his OPS is equal to Joyce’s.
You don’t just “take fluke seasons out”.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 12, 2008 10:23 AM EST up reply actions
Also
Besides, he’s 24-years-old and should improve on those splits.
Splits don’t usually improve. When a hitter improves, he usually improves hitting both sides proportionally. Very rarely does a guy who can’t hit one side in the minors learn to hit that side in the majors. VERY rarely.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
His platoon splits aren't BAD
They are fine. You just want to take out a third of the datat available and call him a platoon player.
Are you sure?
Markakis has, I don’t know about the others, but I could check later when I have time.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 12, 2008 10:15 AM EST up reply actions
Markakis splits
For some reason he isn’t at minorleaguesplits.com, but his splits have improved every year in the bigs. His numbers against RHP hasn’t improved at nearly the same rate. Granted SSS, but he has improved.
I wasn't talking about minor league splits.
His first year he was bad against lefties, since he’s improved his career OPS against them by ~.04 points or so.
I know Crawford has had some decent years (07 comes to mind) against lefties too.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 12, 2008 10:24 AM EST up reply actions
And the third point
I realize the stats are great, but at this point, I’ve read a fair share of Detroit fans complain about his defense, which is something when you consider who their other corner outfielders were.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Who do you trust?
Stats, BA, and Keith Law or some Tigers fans commenting on blogs about a player they just traded?
I trust the numbers and our guys more
Just pointing out that there’s at least some contrary evidence.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Great argument here.
I’ve read some idiots saying Edwin was one of our best starters and improved. I guess it’s true.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 12, 2008 10:19 AM EST up reply actions
He was our 5th best starter.
Maybe 6th.
by floridaroar on Dec 12, 2008 10:24 AM EST up reply actions
Hammel wasn't bad until he realized he was Jason Hammel.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 12, 2008 10:27 AM EST up reply actions
I wasn't counting any of the few-timers except for price
So if you want to throw them in, I guess you’re looking at (+Hammel, Talbot, Niemann)…either 6th or 7th out of 9?
(First person with a Teri Ryan joke gets a punch to the stomach)
He was one of the better long mop-up guys from what I read on, I believe, Fangraphs
Obviously, this role is of ultra-low importance, but if you are above-average everywhere you are bound to have few holes. Interesting that McDung is also in there.
Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.
~George Costanza~
by Sandy Kazmir on Dec 12, 2008 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
He'll always have a place in our hearts for coming in and saving the game that Percy was about to blow in Boston.
by Erik Hahmann on Dec 12, 2008 11:07 AM EST up reply actions
I still have no idea how he found the gigaballs he needed to go out there and do that.
I was astonished, I was certain he’d go all Hammel all over that game.
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