Splitsville Pt. 3

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 12, 2008 11:37 AM EST Comment 30 comments

It looks like we are going to beat this horse until its dead. Then we're gonna pick it back up and beat it some more.

Most of the talk of the past two days has been the Rays left handed splits. The acquisition of Matt Joyce just added more fuel to that fire. R.J. and Mr. Glass did a good job of showing where Joyce ranks among some of his lefty counterparts throughout the majors. The hard part is we just don't have enough real data on him to make a fair comparison. He doesn't have much experience against LHP at the major league level and it is tough to rely on minor league data. Will he be .720 OPS against LHP? Maybe. Will he be a .520 OPS like Gabe Gross? Unlikely, but we really don't know. What we do know is the Rays have at least seven starters we can pencil in as of today (Pena, Iwamura, Crawford, Upton, Longoria, Navarro, Bartlett) for next year and they have enough data that we can take a look at them.

One trend I noticed is a lot of the Rays hitters had down seasons against southpaws. Nobody knows why, but of the six (Longoria excluded) returning starters, only Jason Bartlett had a rise in OPS vs. LHP. In fact, the other five starters (Pena, Iwamura, Crawford, Upton, Navarro) saw their LHOPS drop by 44 points or more off their career number.

	08	Career
Iwamura	0.668	0.755
Upton	0.819	0.863
Crawford	0.641	0.695
Pena	0.654	0.752
Longoria	0.83	0.83
Navarro	0.726	0.784
Bartlett	0.919	0.829

The Rays may solve their struggles against lefties simply by having a few of their own hitters having better seasons. I'd also like to remind you that the Rays had 1679 team at-bats vs. LHP. That sounds like a lot, but not in comparison to the 3862 at-bats they had against RHP. Yes, they did struggle against LHP, but 70% of the time they are facing a right hander and they finished 7^th in the Majors with a team OPS of .778 against righties.

Still, the Joyce acquisition has some saying the Rays must now go out and sign a right-handed DH. While it would be nice to have a little more balance I don't think it's necessarily a must. The Rays will have Willy Aybar, who had a .794 LHOPS in '08 that matches his career LHOPS at .794. The Rays also have Ben Zobrist on the bench, who by fluke or not, had a LHOPS of .804 last year. Even if the Rays don't end up with Milton Bradley and settle on the left-handed Jason Giambi, I'd certainly welcome a guy who owns a an OPS of .854 against lefties over the course of 1868 at-bats.

And finally, the '08 Rays split 262 at-bats against lefties between Jonny Gomes, Gabe Gross, Eric Hinske, and Justin Ruggiano. Their respective LHOPS's last season: .705, .585, .488 and .461. Matt Joyce may be great against lefties at some point in his career, but right now he doesn't need to be great to be an upgrade over what we had last year.

Oh, and the kid plays pretty good D on top of that.

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Charts are pretty

by Erik Hahmann on Dec 12, 2008 11:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

But I agree, as well as everyone else, that Joyce will be a huge upgrade over the train wreck that was in RF last season.

by Erik Hahmann on Dec 12, 2008 11:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't go so far as to say RF was a trainwreck

Just inconsistent.

I could be wrong though

by staplemaniac on Dec 12, 2008 12:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bingo

IMO Joyce is here to replace Hinske’s offense, while providing Gross (the guy not the adjective) level defense. I think that is within reason.

For those wondering about Hinske’s splits:
vs. LH .262/.344/.500/.844 375 PA
vs. RH .143/.263/.224/.487 57 PA

I’m just saying that perhaps we have been comparing Joyce to the wrong guy since someone will need to pick up Hinske’s 20 homers and high OPS against righties. This seems possible, while also contributing a high level of defense.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Dec 12, 2008 1:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dumb

RH and LH should be switched

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Dec 12, 2008 1:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

There is a Joyce lovefest going on here.

Just don’t let the fine folks at the Heater find out.

by Albertrayon on Dec 12, 2008 12:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

You mean like

You guys are defending the Rays like I have attacked them. I haven’t attacked anyone. I just call it like I see it and what I see here is a bunch of NOISE about bringing in an everyday DH. It ain’t gonna happen, it was never gonna happen. So quit dreaming.

All things considered, I like the idea of having the highly talented OF Matt Joyce. Except the fact that he platoons away from LHP and he’s in the Mexican League right now trying to learn how to hit off-speed stuff. This kid WILL NOT BE ON THE FIELD come April 1st. Guaranteed. So what did we truly get? We lost a formidable #4 starter with +stuff, who pitched every week, turned the corner and had his best year as pro, all for a kid that will still sit behind who? Gabe Gross?

Yea, a real bright one.

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 12, 2008 12:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

". I just call it like I see it and what I see here is a bunch of NOISE about bringing in an everyday DH. It ain’t gonna happen, it was never gonna happen. So quit dreaming."

Actually, it’s very much going to happen.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 12, 2008 1:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I hope you are right

but I don’t see this happening either. Why are you so certain?

by LeftRight on Dec 12, 2008 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They're GOING to add a DH

by Erik Hahmann on Dec 12, 2008 3:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Even if it is either Juan Gonzalez or Julio Franco this is getting done

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Dec 12, 2008 3:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

thanks for all the logic

by LeftRight on Dec 12, 2008 4:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Musical Chairs

I count the Rays, Cubs, Nats, Reds, Angels, and Braves all looking to acquire the same thing we are. The Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Blue Jays, and A’s might also. Tex will knock one of these teams out, leaving Dunn, Burrell, Bradley and Giambi. The numbers don’t add up and we have less spending power than all of them.

by LeftRight on Dec 12, 2008 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I would shit my pants if the DCubs, Nats, Reds, or Braves tried to add a DH.

by kericr on Dec 12, 2008 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You're welcome

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Dec 12, 2008 4:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Could see a possible upswing just from getting out of Comerica for Joyce.

by ray-jay on Dec 12, 2008 12:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Matt Joyce and David Price are much better than Gross/Hinske and Edwin Jackson

Improvement, isn’t that what we always want?

Next up: Awesome hitting DH!

by joeybw on Dec 12, 2008 12:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

And cheaper

more $$$ to spend on an awesome DH

I could be wrong though

by staplemaniac on Dec 12, 2008 12:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

From a Tigers Blog, a smart person?!

I‘m having a hard time even writing about the rumored deal that will send Matt Joyce to Tampa for Edwin Jackson. Joyce might flame out, but Jackson has yet to even burn.

Jackson has a fastball that averages in excess of 93 MPH. That’s fast, but he doesn’t seem to fool a lot of people with a K rate last year that was lower than Nate Robertson’s. At least he made up for it by walking 77 hitters in 183 innings. Marcel projects him to have a FIP ERA of 4.64 which is a considerable improvement over the 4.89 he’s posted over the last 2 years. Jackson is also a flyball pitcher meaning he won’t benefit from the new left side infield defense. Jackson will only be 25, but he is out of options.

by joeybw on Dec 12, 2008 12:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs