Didn’t we trade one of our proven veterans for him 3 years ago? I like how we got ride of whoever (Lugo) and get Guzman to be a AAA filler and he didn’t evolve into anything and now he is gone. I do have to say that the Rays probably make the smartest moves in baseball but that one has to but on the low end of the stick for best trades ever

for Guzman and Sergio Pedroza. Pedroza too has stagnated in the minors.

It was a deal that has not provided much value to the Rays, but it was not a bad deal at the time. Lugo was about to become a free agent and would have commanded a high salary as he had played well for the Rays. They had either to sign him, trade him or simply lose him, so they were up against a wall and the Dodger deal was probably the best available.

It was unusual for the Rays in that they ordinarily dealt for players with skills, not just tools, and Guzman was all tools. At the time he was highly regarded, a top prospect, but very raw and with some attitude questions. Typically, however, the Rays acquired an extra player in the deal, and in this case Pedroza was valued for his plate discipline and evidence of power.

You are right that it has ended up a non-descript trade for the Rays, but they did not acquire Guzman to be AAA filler. This was not simply a salary dump but a legitimate effort to add a player with the potential to be a star and also to get another who might develop into a useful role player. And incidentally, Lugo has played poorly since moving on. LA allowed him to go as a free agent and Boston has been disappointed after signing him for 4 years and $36 million. He has lost his starting job there and they are trying to get rid of him but can’t.

Sometimes things don’t work out. Good idea, bad result. (cue R.J.)

At the time the Rays acquired him, this is what Guzman had done over the past 3 years:

As a 19 year old at high A in Vero Beach, in a pitchers league, he got 329 ABs and hit 14 home runs and 22 doubles. His line was .307/.349/.550. He was moved to AA (Jacksonville), another pitcher’s league I think, and in 182 ABs hit another 9 home runs and 11 doubles with a line of .280/.325/.522.

At 20, in AA, he got 442 ABs and had 16 home runs with 31 doubles and a line of .287/.351/.475.

At 21, in AAA, now a hitter’s league, he got 317 ABs and hit 11 home runs, 15 doubles and had a line of .297/.353/.461

That is when the Rays acquired him. I suppose you might see some relative decline as he moved to Las Vegas, but the numbers, especially for such a young player, were still promising. I don’t think it clear that the picks would have been equivalent or better, as he had already produced 3 solid seasons in pro ball and had lots of projection. Even his plate discipline, while not particularly good, was not awful and had shown improvement at AA, while his Ks, a bit high, were not alarmingly so.

And we also should keep in mind that Pedroza was in the package. Drafted from college (3rd round), he got a late start and at 22 had been a bit old for the Sally League. Still, in 317 ABs he had 21 HRs, 24 doubles and a line of .281/.437/.562. In 99 more ABs at high A that year, he hit .313/.447/.545. Again, receiving two prospects like Guzman and Pedroza seems to me a decent return for Lugo as opposed to draft picks.

And incidentally, the next year at Vero Beach, Pedroza seemed to be fulfilling his promise with a line of .286/.368/.539 and 22 home runs with 27 doubles. Again, at 23 he was old, and did not seem to have a position (the catcher experiment flopped), but appeared a promising hitter. I followed him a bit; he was very streaky all year. When I went to Vero Beach, one thing was certain. He hit the ball very hard. Unfortunately, in AA this year he went backwards.

and also that there were questions about his makeup. As I remember, he had a brief callup to the Dodgers and then sulked when he was not on the major league roster the next year.

On the other hand, as a 19 and 20 year old, he had terrific numbers at levels for which he had been very young, and to get turned off because a 21 year old acts immaturely is probably overreacting. He had not been particularly impressive at Las Vegas, but as you say above, he was probably still worth more than any pick the Rays would have gotten.

And I still think we should not forget that Pedroza was part of the deal and should be considered part of the value received. Again, certainly not a hot prospect, but as a throw-in, not a bad acquisition at the time. Beefing up the depth of the minors, especially for a team in the position the Rays were at that time, is a good thing, particularly if the cost is a 30 year old shortstop who is getting very expensive and for whom you have a pretty hot prospect on the way presumably within 3 years.

Ultimately the point remains that the Rays made a good decision to deal Lugo and get back a high ceiling if flawed prospect plus an organizational filler with 2 skills the team prized.