The 10 Prospects Evaluated

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 15, 2008 2:49 PM EST

First I'd like to thank Brick for doing the community prospect list. This isn't really connected, and I don't want him thinking I'm stepping on his toes, so I wanted to get that out of the way. With that done, I wanted to post my top 10 prospects list.

Position	Player	WAR
SP	Price	5.5
SS	Beckham	4.5
SP	Davis	3.5
SP	Hellickson	3.5
CF	Jennings	3.5
SP	Talbot	3
SS	Brignac	3
CF	Perez	2
RP	McGee	1.5
RP	Niemann	1.5

The WAR is a combination of ceiling and production exhibited thus far. Rundown:

Price - Obvious. Great everything, should dominate.

Beckham - Physical tools are there, no production yet, but I'm not concerned.

Davis - I see him comparing to Dustin McGowan. I'm concerned about his performance this year.

Hellickson - Scott Baker deux.

Jennings - Injuries are concerning. Physical tools are there, production as well.

Talbot - My love.

Brignac - In the end, I'm unsure of how much offense translates over. Banking on his defense being in the +5 range.

Perez - Good defense, unsure of his bat.

McGee/Niemann - It's hard to be a really, really good reliever. I think both have chances of being around Howell's 2008 level.

It's hard to judge the younger players, so I tried avoiding guys like Matt Moore. Thoughts?

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Comments

Talbot love indeed

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 15, 2008 2:54 PM EST reply actions

He's got his love locked down

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Dec 15, 2008 3:01 PM EST up reply actions

Jennings needs to get his ass on the field for an entier season.

by Erik Hahmann on Dec 15, 2008 3:02 PM EST reply actions

Easier said then done,

I would like see Salaam for the a whole season as well.

In the name of Shinji Mori, we shall win!

by thebaddancingraysfan on Dec 15, 2008 4:39 PM EST up reply actions

Talbot... ehhh

I have a hard time ranking him that high. His upside is good bullpen arm/swing starter? I like Niemann more because I think his upside is higher and he’s been almost as good despite delays in his development.

by rglass44 on Dec 15, 2008 3:07 PM EST reply actions

I know it's tough to project, but

between the stuff and the numbers, I have to put Barnese in my top 10.

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 15, 2008 3:17 PM EST reply actions

this

by rglass44 on Dec 15, 2008 3:24 PM EST up reply actions

Is there any prospects

with any power potential?

Looks like we’ll be trading pitching for power till we can find some of our own

by Raymondo on Dec 15, 2008 3:30 PM EST reply actions

Not really.

Ryan Royster was probably the one with the most power potential, but he fell off this year.

by rglass44 on Dec 15, 2008 3:33 PM EST up reply actions

Is Rhyne Hughes potentially a MLB player?

Great fall league. I’m assuming he’s in Durham

by Raymondo on Dec 15, 2008 3:35 PM EST up reply actions

John Sickels doesn't have him in our top 20, but he's an honorable mention.

He’s kind of old, and he’s a corner outfielder that doesn’t hit for that much power or have much speed (going strictly off his numbers).

I’d forgotten about Jaso (who has some pop) and Reid Fronk who posted a .287/.398/.492/.890 as a 21 YO in the Sally league. Fronk had 17 HRs and 29 2Bs in 124 games.

Here’s Sickles 2009 top 20 which has little blurbs for each of the top 20.

by rglass44 on Dec 15, 2008 3:55 PM EST up reply actions

interesting article said he tried to bulk up a little more and it slowed down his bat swing

I’ll try to dig up the link to the article, but Royster said that he thought the added bulk would help him to improve, but it just made him uncomfortable and slower at the plate and it was towards the end of the season that he started feeling better. Still think he has a lot of potential and if what he said holds true, perhaps this can be a nice rebound season for him.

by raysfaninminnesota on Dec 15, 2008 6:29 PM EST up reply actions

This is a huge projection, but

Jason Corder is said to have a ton of power, however, it’s way to early to say what kind of prospect he is.

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 15, 2008 4:04 PM EST up reply actions

Hard to project anyone who was in low Class A last year.

by Erik Hahmann on Dec 15, 2008 4:18 PM EST up reply actions

I HIGHLY doubt it

Corder was a 22 year old in short season ball; if he had great power potential, he would have shown it more. As a college junior, he hit 7 HRs. As a college senior, he hit 13 HRs. He had a good OPS in a tough place to hit, but even in a best case scenario, he has average power for a corner outfielder.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 15, 2008 5:57 PM EST up reply actions

But the scouts say.....

Baseball America

Corder started his college career at California but finished it at Long Beach State. It was a tougher fit for his power bat at spacious Blair Field, but he still ranked second in the Big West in homers, behind UCSB’s Mike Zuanich. Scouts say Corder has real power despite a long swing that results in a lot of swings and misses. He has enough arm for right field, a 55 on the 20-to-80 scale.

And out of high school

At the plate he uses a short compact yet powerful swing to spray line drives to all fields. He has considerable power potential and a strong arm that could serve him well in right field.

Again, way to early make a prediction on hims, but scouts believe there is power potential and that was the question.

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 15, 2008 6:38 PM EST up reply actions

*him

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 15, 2008 6:39 PM EST up reply actions

What's the news on Will Kline?

Will he play in ’09?

by Raymondo on Dec 15, 2008 3:31 PM EST reply actions

Him and 2007 4th rounder David Newmann should both be good to go at some point in 2009.

www.raysprospects.com
Trade for Billy Butler!

by Imperialism32 on Dec 15, 2008 4:19 PM EST up reply actions

How do you justify rating Talbot as a starter but Niemann as a reliever?

Last time I checked, they were in the same boat – neither is going to make it into the rotation, barring trades or disaster. If Niemann is treated as a reliever, then I think Talbot has to be treated the same.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 15, 2008 5:54 PM EST reply actions

Talbot isn't an injury risk.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 15, 2008 6:14 PM EST up reply actions

So you account for Niemann's and McGee's injury risk

But not Jennings’? Also, how is McGee an injury risk outside of having had TJ? There’s a risk he won’t come back as good as he was, but TJ rarely turns a starter into a reliever (unless it’s on the basis of lesser performance).

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 15, 2008 6:24 PM EST up reply actions

No, McGee just doesn't have secondary stuff to make it as a starter.

Niemann has had repeated injuries.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 15, 2008 6:25 PM EST up reply actions

I know I've asked this before...

But could someone run through Talbot’s strengths/weakness from a scouting point of view and maybe discuss how his skillset produces awesome minor league results but isn’t expected to translate into big-league performance? Prospects aren’t an area I know much about, in case that wasn’t obvious. Thanks.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 15, 2008 5:55 PM EST reply actions

15) Mitch Talbot, RHP, Grade C+: Average stuff, throws strikes, could be an effective swingman.

Deep repertoire, average stuff, rated best changeup in the system the last 4 years.

by rglass44 on Dec 15, 2008 6:34 PM EST up reply actions

by Brickhaus on Dec 15, 2008 7:17 PM EST up reply actions

It computes perfectly if no one else in the system has

a consistent change-up. And as far as I can tell, no one does. So even if his change rates as just an above-average pitch, it’s still the best in our system.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Dec 15, 2008 7:27 PM EST up reply actions